A cost-benefit analysis of WildFireSat, a wildfire monitoring satellite mission for Canada.

In anticipation of growing wildfire management challenges, the Canadian government is investing in WildFireSat, an Earth observation satellite mission designed to collect data in support of Canadian wildfire management. Although costs of the mission can be reasonably estimated, the benefits of such an investment are unknown. Here we forecast the possible benefits of WildFireSat via an avoided cost approach. We consider five socio-economic components: suppression costs (fixed and variable), timber losses, property, asset and infrastructure losses, evacuation costs, and smoke related health costs. Using a Monte Carlo analysis, we evaluated a range of possible changes to these components based on expert opinions. The resulting Net Present Value (NPV) estimates depend on the presumed impact of using WildFireSat decision support data products, with pessimistic and conservative assumptions generating mission costs that typically exceed potential benefits by 1.16 to 1.59 times, while more optimistic assumptions generate benefits in excess of costs by 8.72 to 10.48 times. The analysis here excludes some possibly significant market and non-market impacts expected from WildFireSat due to data limitations; accounting for these additional impacts would likely generate positive NPVs under even cautious impact assumptions.

Sentiments toward use of forest biomass for heat and power in canadian headlines.

Replacement of fossil fuels with bioenergy, often in concert with carbon capture and storage, plays an important role in published low-emission pathways from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other agencies. National and regional net-zero greenhouse gas emission commitments have caused a dramatic increase in forest biomass consumption globally, and the rise has been accompanied by debates in the scholarly literature and in society at large about the ecological and climate change impacts of forest biomass. This paper presents a quantitative analysis of media headlines about forest bioenergy published in 75 Canadian newspapers from 2010 to 2020. Using a lexicon and rules-based sentiment analysis tool, we explore negative and positive media headlines about forest biomass. Despite our finding that Canadian headlines about forest bioenergy were twice as likely to be positive as negative, media items document reversals away from forest biomass-generated domestic electricity. Our analysis found that increases in electricity costs following the introduction of forest biomass as a fuel type for Canadian electricity generation was a primary cause of these reversals. Headlines also critiqued the expanded production of wood pellets, citing forest ecological impacts and the debate about the net carbon impacts of forest biomass-generated energy. Safety issues, including stories about workplace injuries, and pellet plant fires, and economic issues, such as fiber supply and mill closures, were also featured. This research contributes a social science lens to understand perceptions over time about forest biomass for heat and power.

Assessing the climate suitability and potential economic impacts of Oak wilt in Canada.

We assess risks posed by oak wilt-a disease caused by the fungal pathogen Bretziella fagacearum. Though not currently found in Canada, our distribution models indicate that suitable climate conditions currently occur in southern Ontario for B. fagacearum and two of its main insect dispersal vectors, Colopterus truncatus and Carpophilus sayi. Climate habitat for these species is projected to expand northward under climate change, with much of the oak range in eastern Canada becoming climatically suitable within the next two decades. Potential costs for the removal and replacement of oak street trees ranged from CDN$266 to $420 million, with variation related to uncertainty in costs, rate of tree replacement, and city-level estimates of oak street tree density. The value of standing oak timber in eastern Canada was estimated at CDN$126 million using provincial stumpage fees and as a CDN$24 million annual contribution to national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) when calculated using a combination of economic and forestry product statistics. These values can help inform the scale of eradication and/or management efforts in the event of future oak wilt introductions.

Potential Economic Impacts of the Asian Longhorned Beetle (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in Eastern Canada.

The Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis Motschulsky) continues to pose a significant risk to deciduous forests around the world. We assess Asian longhorned beetle-related risks in eastern Canada by generating current and future climate suitability maps, import-based likelihood of introduction estimates for each urban center in our study area, and potential economic impacts in both urban and natural settings. For the current period, climatic suitability for Asian longhorned beetle was highest in southern Ontario, but was projected to expand significantly northward and eastward by midcentury. High likelihood of Asian longhorned beetle introduction was associated with large urban centers, but also smaller centers with high levels of pest-associated imports. Potential costs for the removal and replacement of Asian longhorned beetle-impacted street trees ranged from CDN$8.6 to $12.2 billion, with the exact amount and city-level ranking depending on the method used to calculate risk. Potential losses of merchantable maple (Acer) timber were estimated at CDN$1.6 billion using provincial stumpage fees and CDN$431 million annually when calculated using a combination of economic and forestry product statistics. The gross value of edible maple products, which could potentially be affected by Asian longhorned beetle, was estimated at CDN$358 million annually. These values can help inform the scale of early detection surveys, potential eradication efforts, and research budgets in the event of future Asian longhorned beetle introductions.

Wildfire Suppression Costs for Canada under a Changing Climate.

Climate-influenced changes in fire regimes in northern temperate and boreal regions will have both ecological and economic ramifications. We examine possible future wildfire area burned and suppression costs using a recently compiled historical (i.e., 1980-2009) fire management cost database for Canada and several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate projections. Area burned was modelled as a function of a climate moisture index (CMI), and fire suppression costs then estimated as a function of area burned. Future estimates of area burned were generated from projections of the CMI under two emissions pathways for four General Circulation Models (GCMs); these estimates were constrained to ecologically reasonable values by incorporating a minimum fire return interval of 20 years. Total average annual national fire management costs are projected to increase to just under $1 billion (a 60% real increase from the 1980-2009 period) under the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway and $1.4 billion (119% real increase from the base period) under the high emissions pathway by the end of the century. For many provinces, annual costs that are currently considered extreme (i.e., occur once every ten years) are projected to become commonplace (i.e., occur once every two years or more often) as the century progresses. It is highly likely that evaluations of current wildland fire management paradigms will be necessary to avoid drastic and untenable cost increases as the century progresses.