Prediction of viral spillover risk based on the mass action principle.

Infectious zoonotic disease emergence, through spillover events, is of global concern and has the potential to cause significant harm to society, as recently demonstrated by COVID-19. More than 70% of the 400 infectious diseases that emerged in the past five decades have a zoonotic origin, including all recent pandemics. There have been several approaches used to predict the risk of spillover through some of the known or suspected infectious disease emergence drivers, largely using correlative approaches. Here, we predict the spatial distribution of spillover risk by approximating general transmission through animal and human interactions. These mass action interactions are approximated through the multiplication of the spatial distribution of zoonotic virus diversity and human population density. Although our results indicate higher risk in regions along the equator and in Southeast Asia where both virus diversity and human population density are high, it should be noted that this is primarily a conceptual exercise. We compared our spillover risk map to key factors, including the model inputs of zoonotic virus diversity estimate map, human population density map, and the spatial distribution of species richness. Despite the limitations of this approach, this viral spillover map is a step towards developing a more comprehensive spillover risk prediction system to inform global monitoring.

Delving into the Aftermath of a Disease-Associated Near-Extinction Event: A Five-Year Study of a Serpentovirus (Nidovirus) in a Critically Endangered Turtle Population.

Bellinger River virus (BRV) is a serpentovirus (nidovirus) that was likely responsible for the catastrophic mortality of the Australian freshwater turtle Myuchelys georgesi in February 2015. From November 2015 to November 2020, swabs were collected from turtles during repeated river surveys to estimate the prevalence of BRV RNA, identify risk factors associated with BRV infection, and refine sample collection. BRV RNA prevalence at first capture was significantly higher in M. georgesi (10.8%) than in a coexisting turtle, Emydura macquarii (1.0%). For M. georgesi, various risk factors were identified depending on the analysis method, but a positive BRV result was consistently associated with a larger body size. All turtles were asymptomatic when sampled and conjunctival swabs were inferred to be optimal for ongoing monitoring. Although the absence of disease and recent BRV detections suggests a reduced ongoing threat, the potential for the virus to persist in an endemic focus or resurge in cyclical epidemics cannot be excluded. Therefore, BRV is an ongoing potential threat to the conservation of M. georgesi, and strict adherence to biosecurity principles is essential to minimise the risk of reintroduction or spread of BRV or other pathogens.

Investigating Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus seropositivity in camels and human behavioural risks in an abattoir in Nigeria.

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) is an emerging viral pathogen with pandemic potential that is often misdiagnosed. Case fatality in low-resource settings could be up to 40% due to close contact between animals and humans. A two-year cross-sectional study was conducted in Fagge abattoir, Kano State, Nigeria, to estimate the seropositivity of CCHFV in camels using a commercial multi-species competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). A closed-ended questionnaire was administered to the abattoir workers to assess their awareness, mitigation, and behavioural practices associated with CCHF. Of the 184 camels tested, 179 (97%) were seropositive for CCHFV (95% confidence interval (CI): 93.77, 99.11). The median (interquartile range (IQR)) age of respondents was 41 (35-52), with 62% having no education. Respondents had little knowledge about CCHFV and the concept of zoonotic disease. In this study, the high estimated prevalence of antibodies to CCHFV in camels highlights the heightened risk of transmission of CCHFV in Nigeria. Similarly, a concerning lack of knowledge and inadequate preventive practices, alongside a prevalence of high-risk behaviours associated with CCHF among abattoir workers, were noted in this study. Thus, there is an urgent need for comprehensive public health education and collaborative One Health strategies to avert the threats of spillover events.

"Hospitals respond to demand. Public health needs to respond to risk": health system lessons from a case study of northern Queensland's COVID-19 surveillance and response.

BACKGROUND: The vast region of northern Queensland (NQ) in Australia experiences poorer health outcomes and a disproportionate burden of communicable diseases compared with urban populations in Australia. This study examined the governance of COVID-19 surveillance and response in NQ to identify strengths and opportunities for improvement. METHODS: The manuscript presents an analysis of one case-unit within a broader case study project examining systems for surveillance and response for COVID-19 in NQ. Data were collected between October 2020-December 2021 comprising 47 interviews with clinical and public health staff, document review, and observation in organisational settings. Thematic analysis produced five key themes. RESULTS: Study findings highlight key strengths of the COVID-19 response, including rapid implementation of response measures, and the relative autonomy of NQ's Public Health Units to lead logistical decision-making. However, findings also highlight limitations and fragility of the public health system more generally, including unclear accountabilities, constraints on local community engagement, and workforce and other resourcing shortfalls. These were framed by state-wide regulatory and organisational incentives that prioritise clinical health care rather than disease prevention, health protection, and health promotion. Although NQ mobilised an effective COVID-19 response, findings suggest that NQ public health systems are marked by fragility, calling into question the region's preparedness for future pandemic events and other public health crises. CONCLUSIONS: Study findings highlight an urgent need to improve governance, resourcing, and political priority of public health in NQ to address unmet needs and ongoing threats.

"Smart markets": harnessing the potential of new technologies for endemic and emerging infectious disease surveillance in traditional food markets.

Emerging and endemic zoonotic diseases continue to threaten human and animal health, our social fabric, and the global economy. Zoonoses frequently emerge from congregate interfaces where multiple animal species and humans coexist, including farms and markets. Traditional food markets are widespread across the globe and create an interface where domestic and wild animals interact among themselves and with humans, increasing the risk of pathogen spillover. Despite decades of evidence linking markets to disease outbreaks across the world, there remains a striking lack of pathogen surveillance programs that can relay timely, cost-effective, and actionable information to decision-makers to protect human and animal health. However, the strategic incorporation of environmental surveillance systems in markets coupled with novel pathogen detection strategies can create an early warning system capable of alerting us to the risk of outbreaks before they happen. Here, we explore the concept of "smart" markets that utilize continuous surveillance systems to monitor the emergence of zoonotic pathogens with spillover potential.IMPORTANCEFast detection and rapid intervention are crucial to mitigate risks of pathogen emergence, spillover and spread-every second counts. However, comprehensive, active, longitudinal surveillance systems at high-risk interfaces that provide real-time data for action remain lacking. This paper proposes "smart market" systems harnessing cutting-edge tools and a range of sampling techniques, including wastewater and air collection, multiplex assays, and metagenomic sequencing. Coupled with robust response pathways, these systems could better enable Early Warning and bolster prevention efforts.

Metagenomic and Molecular Detection of Novel Fecal Viruses in Free-Ranging Agile Wallabies.

The agile wallaby (Notamacropus agilis) is one of the most abundant marsupial species in northern Queensland and a competent host for the zoonotic Ross River virus. Despite their increased proximity and interactions with humans, little is known about the viruses carried by these animals, and whether any are of conservation or zoonotic importance. Metagenomics and molecular techniques were used in a complementary manner to identify and characterize novel viruses in the fecal samples of free-ranging agile wallabies. We detected a variety of novel marsupial-related viral species including agile wallaby atadenovirus 1, agile wallaby chaphamaparvovirus 1-2, agile wallaby polyomavirus 1-2, agile wallaby associated picobirnavirus 1-9, and a known macropod gammaherpesvirus 3. Phylogenetic analyses indicate that most of these novel viruses would have co-evolved with their hosts (agile wallabies). Additionally, non-marsupial viruses that infect bacteria (phages), plants, insects, and other eukaryotes were identified. This study highlighted the utility of non-invasive sampling as well as the integration of broad-based molecular assays (consensus PCR and next generation sequencing) for monitoring the emergence of potential pathogenic viruses in wildlife species. Furthermore, the novel marsupial viruses identified in this study will enrich the diversity of knowledge about marsupial viruses, and may be useful for developing diagnostics and vaccines.

Neutralization of African enterovirus A71 genogroups by antibodies to canonical genogroups.

Enterovirus 71 (EV-A71) is a major public health problem, causing a range of illnesses from hand-foot-and-mouth disease to severe neurological manifestations. EV-A71 strains have been phylogenetically classified into eight genogroups (A to H), based on their capsid-coding genomic region. Genogroups B and C have caused large outbreaks worldwide and represent the two canonical circulating EV-A71 subtypes. Little is known about the antigenic diversity of new genogroups as compared to the canonical ones. Here, we compared the antigenic features of EV-A71 strains that belong to the canonical B and C genogroups and to genogroups E and F, which circulate in Africa. Analysis of the peptide sequences of EV-A71 strains belonging to different genogroups revealed a high level of conservation of the capsid residues involved in known linear and conformational neutralization antigenic sites. Using a published crystal structure of the EV-A71 capsid as a model, we found that most of the residues that are seemingly specific to some genogroups were mapped outside known antigenic sites or external loops. These observations suggest a cross-neutralization activity of anti-genogroup B or C antibodies against strains of genogroups E and F. Neutralization assays were performed with diverse rabbit and mouse anti-EV-A71 sera, anti-EV-A71 human standards and a monoclonal neutralizing antibody. All the batches of antibodies that were tested successfully neutralized all available isolates, indicating an overall broad cross-neutralization between the canonical genogroups B and C and genogroups E and F. A panel constituted of more than 80 individual human serum samples from Cambodia with neutralizing antibodies against EV-A71 subgenogroup C4 showed quite similar cross-neutralization activities between isolates of genogroups C4, E and F. Our results thus indicate that the genetic drift underlying the separation of EV-A71 strains into genogroups A, B, C, E and F does not correlate with the emergence of antigenically distinct variants.

Longitudinal comparison of bacterial pathogen seropositivity among wet market vendors in the Lao People's Democratic Republic.

Wild animal trade for human consumption is a global issue, involving complex interactions between economics, culture, food security and conservation. Whilst being a biodiversity issue, it is also a major public health concern, with recent epidemics and pandemics of zoonotic pathogens linked to interactions with wildlife. At three time points, between March 2017 and June 2018, a longitudinal sero-survey of 150 market vendors from three wet markets in Laos (selling vegetables, domestic animal meat and/or wildlife meat) was conducted to determine if vendors had been differentially exposed to three endemic bacterial pathogens - Orientia tsutsugamushi, Rickettsia typhi, and Leptospira spp. A total of 367 serum samples were tested by IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and immunofluorescence assay (IFA, for scrub typhus group (STG) and typhus group (TG) only). Among vendors, 32.7% were IgG-positive for at least one pathogen, 13.3% sero-converted during the study. Multi-season occupancy modelling for STG indicated a significantly higher prevalence of STG IgG in vegetable vendors (27.3%) and wildlife vendors (28.4%) than in domestic animal meat vendors (6.9 %, p=0.05), and higher in Phonsavanh market (OR=9.6, p=0.03) compared to Lak Sao and Salavan markets. Estimated mean incidence was 57 cases per 10,000 per 7.5-month period. For TG, vendor age had a significant effect on prevalence (OR=1.04, p=0.006), estimated mean incidence was 64 cases per 10,000 per season (7.5-month period). Despite individuals selling domestic meat having a higher prevalence of Leptospira infections than those that did not (11.6% versus 4.5%), the difference was not significant. Whilst this study has a number of limitations, including vendors changing what food types they sold and no investigation of exposure outside of markets, the finding that the risk of exposure of vendors to zoonotic pathogens may be associated with types of food sold for human consumption warrants further investigation.

Draft Genome Sequence of a Novel Adenovirus Recovered from the Metagenome of Agile Wallabies.

Here, we report the draft genome sequence of a novel agile wallaby adenovirus that was detected in the fecal metagenome of agile wallabies. The genome is 31,512 bp long, with a G+C content of 34.4%. Currently, the pathogenic and zoonotic potential of this novel virus is unknown.

Development of subfamily-based consensus PCR assays for the detection of human and animal herpesviruses.

Consensus PCR assays that can be used to sensitively detect several herpesvirus (HV) species across the different subfamilies were developed in this study. Primers containing degenerate bases were designed to amplify regions of the DNA polymerase (DPOL) gene of alpha- and gamma-HVs, and the glycoprotein B (gB) gene of beta-HVs in a singleplex, non-nested touchdown PCR format. The singleplex touchdown consensus PCR (STC-PCR) was used to amplify the DNA of eight human and 24 animal HVs. The assay was able to detect the lowest DNA dilution of 10-5 for alpha-HVs and 10-3 for beta- and gamma-HVs. In comparison, lowest detection limits of 10-5, 10-3, and 10-2 were obtained for alpha-, beta-, and gamma-HVs respectively when a nested PCR was used. The findings in this study suggest that the STC-PCR assays can be employed for the molecular surveys and clinical detection of novel and known HVs.

Japanese Encephalitis Enzootic and Epidemic Risks across Australia.

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is an arboviral, encephalitogenic, zoonotic flavivirus characterized by its complex epidemiology whose transmission cycle involves reservoir and amplifying hosts, competent vector species and optimal environmental conditions. Although typically endemic in Asia and parts of the Pacific Islands, unprecedented outbreaks in both humans and domestic pigs in southeastern Australia emphasize the virus' expanding geographical range. To estimate areas at highest risk of JEV transmission in Australia, ecological niche models of vectors and waterbirds, a sample of piggery coordinates and feral pig population density models were combined using mathematical and geospatial mapping techniques. These results highlight that both coastal and inland regions across the continent are estimated to have varying risks of enzootic and/or epidemic JEV transmission. We recommend increased surveillance of waterbirds, feral pigs and mosquito populations in areas where domestic pigs and human populations are present.

Analytical sensitivity of COVID-19 rapid antigen tests: A case for a robust reference standard.

Aggressive diagnostic testing remains an indispensable strategy for health and aged care facilities to prevent the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in vulnerable populations. The preferred diagnostic platform has shifted towards COVID-19 rapid antigen tests (RATs) to identify the most infectious individuals. As such, RATs are being manufactured faster than at any other time in our history yet lack the relevant quantitative analytics required to inform on absolute analytical sensitivity enabling manufacturers to maintain high batch-to-batch reproducibility, and end-users to accurately compare brands for decision making. Here, we describe a novel reference standard to measure and compare the analytical sensitivity of RATs using a recombinant GFP-tagged nucleocapsid protein (NP-GFP). Importantly, we show that the GFP tag does not interfere with NP detection and provides several advantages affording streamlined protein expression and purification in high yields as well as faster, cheaper and more sensitive quality control measures for post-production assessment of protein solubility and stability. Ten commercial COVID-19 RATs were evaluated and ranked using NP-GFP as a reference standard. Analytical sensitivity data of the selected devices as determined with NP-GFP did not correlate with those reported by the manufacturers using the median tissue culture infectious dose (TCID50) assay. Of note, TCID50 discordance has been previously reported. Taken together, our results highlight an urgent need for a reliable reference standard for evaluation and benchmarking of the analytical sensitivity of RAT devices. NP-GFP is a promising candidate as a reference standard that will ensure that RAT performance is accurately communicated to healthcare providers and the public.

Aerosol exposure of live bird market workers to viable influenza A/H5N1 and A/H9N2 viruses, Cambodia.

Live bird markets (LBMs) have been identified as key factors in the spread, persistence and evolution of avian influenza viruses (AIVs). In addition, these settings have been associated with human infections with AIVs of pandemic concern. Exposure to aerosolised AIVs by workers in a Cambodian LBM was assessed using aerosol impact samplers. LBM vendors were asked to wear an air sampler for 30 min per day for 1 week while continuing their usual activities in the LBM during a period of high AIV circulation (February) and a period of low circulation (May). During the period of high circulation, AIV RNA was detected from 100% of the air samplers using molecular methods and viable AIV (A/H5N1 and/or A/H9N2) was isolated from 50% of air samplers following inoculation into embryonated chicken eggs. In contrast, AIV was not detected by molecular methods or successfully isolated during the period of low circulation. This study demonstrates the increased risk of aerosol exposure of LBM workers to AIVs during periods of high circulation and highlights the need for interventions during these high-risk periods. Novel approaches, such as environmental sampling, should be further explored at key high-risk interfaces as a potentially cost-effective alternative for monitoring pandemic threats.

Estimating the Distribution of Japanese Encephalitis Vectors in Australia Using Ecological Niche Modelling.

Recent Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) outbreaks in southeastern Australia have sparked interest into epidemiological factors surrounding the virus' novel emergence in this region. Here, the geographic distribution of mosquito species known to be competent JEV vectors in the country was estimated by combining known mosquito occurrences and ecological drivers of distribution to reveal insights into communities at highest risk of infectious disease transmission. Species distribution models predicted that Culex annulirostris and Culex sitiens presence was mostly likely along Australia's eastern and northern coastline, while Culex quinquefasciatus presence was estimated to be most likely near inland regions of southern Australia as well as coastal regions of Western Australia. While Culex annulirostris is considered the dominant JEV vector in Australia, our ecological niche models emphasise the need for further entomological surveillance and JEV research within Australia.

Phylodynamic signatures in the emergence of community-associated MRSA.

Community-associated, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) lineages have emerged in many geographically distinct regions around the world during the past 30 y. Here, we apply consistent phylodynamic methods across multiple community-associated MRSA lineages to describe and contrast their patterns of emergence and dissemination. We generated whole-genome sequencing data for the Australian sequence type (ST) ST93-MRSA-IV from remote communities in Far North Queensland and Papua New Guinea, and the Bengal Bay ST772-MRSA-V clone from metropolitan communities in Pakistan. Increases in the effective reproduction number (Re) and sustained transmission (Re > 1) coincided with spread of progenitor methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) in remote northern Australian populations, dissemination of the ST93-MRSA-IV genotype into population centers on the Australian East Coast, and subsequent importation into the highlands of Papua New Guinea and Far North Queensland. Applying the same phylodynamic methods to existing lineage datasets, we identified common signatures of epidemic growth in the emergence and epidemiological trajectory of community-associated S. aureus lineages from America, Asia, Australasia, and Europe. Surges in Re were observed at the divergence of antibiotic-resistant strains, coinciding with their establishment in regional population centers. Epidemic growth was also observed among drug-resistant MSSA clades in Africa and northern Australia. Our data suggest that the emergence of community-associated MRSA in the late 20th century was driven by a combination of antibiotic-resistant genotypes and host epidemiology, leading to abrupt changes in lineage-wide transmission dynamics and sustained transmission in regional population centers.

Diversity of Leptospira spp. in bats and rodents from Papua New Guinea.

Leptospirosis is the most common bacterial zoonosis globally. The pathogen, Leptospira spp., is primarily associated with rodent reservoirs. However, a wide range of other species has been implicated as reservoirs or dead-end hosts. We conducted a survey for Leptospira spp. in bats and rodents from Papua New Guinea. Kidney samples were collected from 97 pteropodid bats (five species), 37 insectivorous bats from four different families (six species) and 188 rodents (two species). Leptospires were detected in a high proportion of pteropodid bats, including Nyctimene cf. albiventer (35%), Macroglossus minimus (34%) and Rousettus amplexicaudatus (36%). Partial sequencing of the secY gene from rodent and bat leptospires showed host species clustering, with Leptospira interrogans and L. weilii detected in rodents and L. kirschneri and a potential novel species of Leptospira detected in bats. Further research is needed in Papua New Guinea and other locales in the Pacific region to gain a better understanding of the circulation dynamics of leptospires in reservoir species and the risks to public and veterinary health.

Genomic Sequencing of Dengue Virus Strains Associated with Papua New Guinean Outbreaks in 2016 Reveals Endemic Circulation of DENV-1 and DENV-2.

Over the past decade, the Pacific region has experienced many arboviral outbreaks, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. Papua New Guinea (PNG) has a high burden of arboviral diseases, but there is a paucity of knowledge about the epidemiology and circulation of these viruses in the country. In this study, we report investigations into suspected arboviral outbreaks of febrile disease in PNG from December 2015 to June 2017. DENV-1 and DENV-2 were the mostly commonly detected viruses, and low circulation of DENV-3 and ZIKV was also detected. DENV-4 and CHIKV were not detected during this period. Full genome sequencing of selected positive samples revealed that circulation was dominated by endemic indigenous strains belonging to DENV-1 (genotype IV) and DENV-2 (genotype C) that have been present in the country for up to a decade. A DENV-2 sublineage was also identified that has been associated with outbreaks of severe dengue in both PNG and the Solomon Islands.

Australia as a global sink for the genetic diversity of avian influenza A virus.

Most of our understanding of the ecology and evolution of avian influenza A virus (AIV) in wild birds is derived from studies conducted in the northern hemisphere on waterfowl, with a substantial bias towards dabbling ducks. However, relevant environmental conditions and patterns of avian migration and reproduction are substantially different in the southern hemisphere. Through the sequencing and analysis of 333 unique AIV genomes collected from wild birds collected over 15 years we show that Australia is a global sink for AIV diversity and not integrally linked with the Eurasian gene pool. Rather, AIV are infrequently introduced to Australia, followed by decades of isolated circulation and eventual extinction. The number of co-circulating viral lineages varies per subtype. AIV haemagglutinin (HA) subtypes that are rarely identified at duck-centric study sites (H8-12) had more detected introductions and contemporary co-circulating lineages in Australia. Combined with a lack of duck migration beyond the Australian-Papuan region, these findings suggest introductions by long-distance migratory shorebirds. In addition, on the available data we found no evidence of directional or consistent patterns in virus movement across the Australian continent. This feature corresponds to patterns of bird movement, whereby waterfowl have nomadic and erratic rainfall-dependant distributions rather than consistent intra-continental migratory routes. Finally, we detected high levels of virus gene segment reassortment, with a high diversity of AIV genome constellations across years and locations. These data, in addition to those from other studies in Africa and South America, clearly show that patterns of AIV dynamics in the Southern Hemisphere are distinct from those in the temperate north.

Whole genome sequence analysis of Salmonella Typhi in Papua New Guinea reveals an established population of genotype 2.1.7 sensitive to antimicrobials.

BACKGROUND: Typhoid fever, a systemic infection caused by Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi, remains a considerable public health threat in impoverished regions within many low- and middle-income settings. However, we still lack a detailed understanding of the emergence, population structure, molecular mechanisms of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), and transmission dynamics of S. Typhi across many settings, particularly throughout the Asia-Pacific islands. Here we present a comprehensive whole genome sequence (WGS) based overview of S. Typhi populations circulating in Papua New Guinea (PNG) over 30 years. PRINCIPLE FINDINGS: Bioinformatic analysis of 86 S. Typhi isolates collected between 1980-2010 demonstrated that the population structure of PNG is dominated by a single genotype (2.1.7) that appears to have emerged in the Indonesian archipelago in the mid-twentieth century with minimal evidence of inter-country transmission. Genotypic and phenotypic data demonstrated that the PNG S. Typhi population appears to be susceptible to former first line drugs for treating typhoid fever (chloramphenicol, ampicillin and co-trimoxazole), as well as fluoroquinolones, third generation cephalosporins, and macrolides. PNG genotype 2.1.7 was genetically conserved, with very few deletions, and no evidence of plasmid or prophage acquisition. Genetic variation among this population was attributed to either single point mutations, or homologous recombination adjacent to repetitive ribosomal RNA operons. SIGNIFICANCE: Antimicrobials remain an effective option for the treatment of typhoid fever in PNG, along with other intervention strategies including improvements to water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) related infrastructure and potentially the introduction of Vi-conjugate vaccines. However, continued genomic surveillance is warranted to monitor for the emergence of AMR within local populations, or the introduction of AMR associated genotypes of S. Typhi in this setting.