RESUMO
Background: Severe radiation pneumonitis (RP), one of adverse events in patients with lung cancer receiving thoracic radiotherapy, is more likely to lead to more mortality and poor quality of life, which could be predicted by clinical information and treatment scheme. In this study, we aimed to explore the clinical predict model for severe RP. Methods: We collected information on lung cancer patients who received radiotherapy from August 2020 to August 2022. Clinical features were obtained from 690 patients, including baseline and treatment data as well as radiation dose measurement parameters, including lung volume exceeding 5 Gy (V5), lung volume exceeding 20 Gy (V20), lung volume exceeding 30 Gy (V30), mean lung dose (MLD), etc. Among them, 621 patients were in the training cohort, and 69 patients were in the test cohort. Three models were built using different screening methods, including multivariate logistics regression (MLR), backward stepwise regression (BSR), and random forest regression (RFR), to evaluate their predictive power. Overoptimism in the training cohorts was evaluated by four validation methods, including hold-out, 10-fold, leave-one-out, and bootstrap methods, and test cohort was used to evaluate the predictive performance of the model. Model calibration, decision curve analysis (DCA), and evaluation of the nomograms for the three models were completed. Results: Severe RP was up to 9.4%. The results of multivariate analysis of logistics regression in all patients showed that patients with subclinical (untreated and asymptomatic) interstitial lung disease (ILD) could increase the risk of severe RP, and patients with a better lung diffusion function and received standardized steroids treatment could decrease the risk of severe RP. The three models built by MLR, BSR, and RFR all had good accuracy (>0.850) and moderate κ value (>0.4), and the model 2 built by BSR had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) in three models, which was 0.958 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.932-0.985]. The calibration curve showed good agreement between the predicted and actual values, and the DCA showed a positive net benefit for the model 2 which drew the nomogram. The model 2 included subclinical ILD, diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DLCO), ipsilateral lung V20, and standardized steroid treatment, which could affect the incidence of severe RP. Conclusions: Subclinical ILD, DLCO, ipsilateral lung V20, and with or not standardized steroid treatment could affect the incidence of severe RP. Strict lung dose limitation and standardized steroid treatment could contribute to a decrease in severe RP.