Racial Differences in Germline Genetic Testing Completion Among Males With Pancreatic, Breast, or Metastatic Prostate Cancers.

BACKGROUND: Germline genetic testing is a vital component of guideline-recommended cancer care for males with pancreatic, breast, or metastatic prostate cancers. We sought to determine whether there were racial disparities in germline genetic testing completion in this population. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included non-Hispanic White and Black males with incident pancreatic, breast, or metastatic prostate cancers between January 1, 2019, and September 30, 2021. Two nationwide cohorts were examined: (1) commercially insured individuals in an administrative claims database, and (2) Veterans receiving care in the Veterans Health Administration. One-year germline genetic testing rates were estimated by using Kaplan-Meier methods. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to test the association between race and genetic testing completion. Causal mediation analyses were performed to investigate whether socioeconomic variables contributed to associations between race and germline testing. RESULTS: Our cohort consisted of 7,894 males (5,142 commercially insured; 2,752 Veterans). One-year testing rates were 18.0% (95% CI, 16.8%-19.2%) in commercially insured individuals and 14.2% (95% CI, 11.5%-15.0%) in Veterans. Black race was associated with a lower hazard of testing among commercially insured individuals (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.73; 95% CI, 0.58-0.91; P=.005) but not among Veterans (aHR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.75-1.32; P=.960). In commercially insured individuals, income (aHR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.86-0.96) and net worth (aHR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.86-0.98) mediated racial disparities, whereas education (aHR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.94-1.01) did not. CONCLUSIONS: Overall rates of guideline-recommended genetic testing are low in males with pancreatic, breast, or metastatic prostate cancers. Racial disparities in genetic testing among males exist in a commercially insured population, mediated by net worth and household income; these disparities are not seen in the equal-access Veterans Health Administration. Alleviating financial and access barriers may mitigate racial disparities in genetic testing.

A Quantitative Bias Analysis Approach to Informative Presence Bias in Electronic Health Records.

Accurate outcome and exposure ascertainment in electronic health record (EHR) data, referred to as EHR phenotyping, relies on the completeness and accuracy of EHR data for each individual. However, some individuals, such as those with a greater comorbidity burden, visit the health care system more frequently and thus have more complete data, compared with others. Ignoring such dependence of exposure and outcome misclassification on visit frequency can bias estimates of associations in EHR analysis. We developed a framework for describing the structure of outcome and exposure misclassification due to informative visit processes in EHR data and assessed the utility of a quantitative bias analysis approach to adjusting for bias induced by informative visit patterns. Using simulations, we found that this method produced unbiased estimates across all informative visit structures, if the phenotype sensitivity and specificity were correctly specified. We applied this method in an example where the association between diabetes and progression-free survival in metastatic breast cancer patients may be subject to informative presence bias. The quantitative bias analysis approach allowed us to evaluate robustness of results to informative presence bias and indicated that findings were unlikely to change across a range of plausible values for phenotype sensitivity and specificity. Researchers using EHR data should carefully consider the informative visit structure reflected in their data and use appropriate approaches such as the quantitative bias analysis approach described here to evaluate robustness of study findings.

Comparing survival in trial- versus routine-care advanced urothelial cancer patients on immune checkpoint blockade.

PURPOSE: Although recent trials involving first-line immune checkpoint inhibitors have expanded treatment options for patients with advanced urothelial carcinoma (aUC) who are ineligible for standard cisplatin-based chemotherapy, there exists limited evidence for whether trial efficacy translates into real-world effectiveness for patients seen in routine care. This retrospective cohort study compares differences in overall survival (OS) between KEYNOTE-052 trial participants and routine-care patients receiving first-line pembrolizumab monotherapy. METHODS: A routine-care patient cohort was constructed from the Flatiron Health database using trial eligibility criteria and was weighted to balance EHR and trial patient characteristics using matching-adjusted indirect comparisons. RESULTS: The routine-care cohort was older, more likely to be female, and more often cisplatin-ineligible due to renal dysfunction. ECOG performance status was comparable between the cohorts. Median OS was 9 months (95% CI 7-16) in the weighted routine-care cohort and 11.3 months (9.7-13.1) in the trial cohort. No significant differences between the Kaplan-Meier OS curves were detected (p = 0.76). Survival probabilities were similar between the weighted routine-care and trial cohorts at 12-, 24-, and 36- months (0.45 vs. 0.47, 0.31 vs. 0.31, 0.26 vs. 0.23, respectively). Notably, routine care patients had modestly lower survival at 3 months compared to trial participants (0.69 vs. 0.83, respectively). CONCLUSION: Our results provide reassurance that cisplatin-ineligible aUC patients receiving first-line immunotherapy in routine care experience similar benefits to those observed in trial patients.

Predicting five-year interval second breast cancer risk in women with prior breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Annual surveillance mammography is recommended for women with a personal history of breast cancer. Risk prediction models that estimate mammography failures such as interval second breast cancers could help to tailor surveillance imaging regimens to women's individual risk profiles. METHODS: In a cohort of women with a history of breast cancer receiving surveillance mammography in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium in 1996-2019, we used LASSO-penalized regression to estimate the probability of an interval second cancer (invasive cancer or ductal carcinoma in situ) in the one-year following a negative surveillance mammogram. Based on predicted risks from this one-year risk model, we generated cumulative risks of an interval second cancer for the five-year period following each mammogram. Model performance was evaluated using cross-validation in the overall cohort and within race and ethnicity strata. RESULTS: In 173,290 surveillance mammograms, we observed 496 interval cancers. One-year risk models were well-calibrated (expected/observed ratio = 1.00) with good accuracy (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.64). Model performance was similar across race and ethnicity groups. The median five-year cumulative risk was 1.20% (interquartile range 0.93-1.63%). Median five-year risks were highest in women who were under age 40 or pre- or peri-menopausal at diagnosis and those with estrogen receptor-negative primary breast cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Our risk model identified women at high risk of interval second breast cancers who may benefit from additional surveillance imaging modalities. Risk models should be evaluated to determine if risk-guided supplemental surveillance imaging improves early detection and decreases surveillance failures.

Real-world use, dose intensity, and adherence to enfortumab vedotin in locally advanced or metastatic urothelial cancer.

BACKGROUND: Enfortumab vedotin (EV) monotherapy is approved for the treatment of advanced urothelial cancer as later-line therapy (post-immunotherapy and -platinum-chemotherapy) and as earlier-line therapy (cisplatin-ineligible, at least 1 prior therapy). We examined real-world EV monotherapy use, dose intensity and adherence across 280 US cancer clinics. METHODS: This postmarketing study used data from a nationwide (United States) deidentified patient-level electronic health record-derived database. Included were patients with advanced urothelial cancer initiating EV on or after December 19, 2019 (date of accelerated approval). We summarized characteristics of EV users using descriptive statistics and computed metrics of EV use, EV dose intensity, and EV treatment adherence. RESULTS: We identified 416 advanced urothelial cancer patients initiating EV monotherapy. More than half of patients (55.3%) received EV as later-line therapy (3L+), and nearly half (44.7%) received EV as earlier line therapy (1 or 2L). Dosing frequency (mean [SD] 2.4 [0.5] treatments per 28 day cycle) and dose (1.1 [0.2] mg/kg) were lower than label indication guidelines (1.25 mg/kg, Day 1, 8, 15 of a 28 day cycle). Only 58.8% of patients received an average of >2 treatments per 28-day cycle. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with advanced urothelial cancer treated with EV monotherapy in contemporary practice, EV dosing frequency, and dosage was lower in clinical practice than recommended in the product labeling. Further research is required to understand clinical factors and outcomes associated with the differences observed.

Risk of Arterial and Venous Thrombotic Events Among Patients with COVID-19: A Multi-National Collaboration of Regulatory Agencies from Canada, Europe, and United States.

Purpose: Few studies have examined how the absolute risk of thromboembolism with COVID-19 has evolved over time across different countries. Researchers from the European Medicines Agency, Health Canada, and the United States (US) Food and Drug Administration established a collaboration to evaluate the absolute risk of arterial (ATE) and venous thromboembolism (VTE) in the 90 days after diagnosis of COVID-19 in the ambulatory (eg, outpatient, emergency department, nursing facility) setting from seven countries across North America (Canada, US) and Europe (England, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and Spain) within periods before and during COVID-19 vaccine availability. Patients and Methods: We conducted cohort studies of patients initially diagnosed with COVID-19 in the ambulatory setting from the seven specified countries. Patients were followed for 90 days after COVID-19 diagnosis. The primary outcomes were ATE and VTE over 90 days from diagnosis date. We measured country-level estimates of 90-day absolute risk (with 95% confidence intervals) of ATE and VTE. Results: The seven cohorts included 1,061,565 patients initially diagnosed with COVID-19 in the ambulatory setting before COVID-19 vaccines were available (through November 2020). The 90-day absolute risk of ATE during this period ranged from 0.11% (0.09-0.13%) in Canada to 1.01% (0.97-1.05%) in the US, and the 90-day absolute risk of VTE ranged from 0.23% (0.21-0.26%) in Canada to 0.84% (0.80-0.89%) in England. The seven cohorts included 3,544,062 patients with COVID-19 during vaccine availability (beginning December 2020). The 90-day absolute risk of ATE during this period ranged from 0.06% (0.06-0.07%) in England to 1.04% (1.01-1.06%) in the US, and the 90-day absolute risk of VTE ranged from 0.25% (0.24-0.26%) in England to 1.02% (0.99-1.04%) in the US. Conclusion: There was heterogeneity by country in 90-day absolute risk of ATE and VTE after ambulatory COVID-19 diagnosis both before and during COVID-19 vaccine availability.

Confidence score: a data-driven measure for inclusive systematic reviews considering unpublished preprints.

OBJECTIVES: COVID-19, since its emergence in December 2019, has globally impacted research. Over 360 000 COVID-19-related manuscripts have been published on PubMed and preprint servers like medRxiv and bioRxiv, with preprints comprising about 15% of all manuscripts. Yet, the role and impact of preprints on COVID-19 research and evidence synthesis remain uncertain. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We propose a novel data-driven method for assigning weights to individual preprints in systematic reviews and meta-analyses. This weight termed the "confidence score" is obtained using the survival cure model, also known as the survival mixture model, which takes into account the time elapsed between posting and publication of a preprint, as well as metadata such as the number of first 2-week citations, sample size, and study type. RESULTS: Using 146 preprints on COVID-19 therapeutics posted from the beginning of the pandemic through April 30, 2021, we validated the confidence scores, showing an area under the curve of 0.95 (95% CI, 0.92-0.98). Through a use case on the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine, we demonstrated how these scores can be incorporated practically into meta-analyses to properly weigh preprints. DISCUSSION: It is important to note that our method does not aim to replace existing measures of study quality but rather serves as a supplementary measure that overcomes some limitations of current approaches. CONCLUSION: Our proposed confidence score has the potential to improve systematic reviews of evidence related to COVID-19 and other clinical conditions by providing a data-driven approach to including unpublished manuscripts.

Identifying clusters of patient comorbidities associated with obstructive sleep apnea using electronic health records.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this study were to understand the relative comorbidity burden of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), determine whether these relationships were modified by sex or age, and identify patient subtypes defined by common comorbidities. METHODS: Cases with OSA and noncases (controls) were defined using a validated electronic health record (EHR)-based phenotype and matched for age, sex, and time period of follow-up in the EHR. We compared prevalence of the 20 most common comorbidities between matched cases and controls using conditional logistic regression with and without controlling for body mass index. Latent class analysis was used to identify subtypes of OSA cases defined by combinations of these comorbidities. RESULTS: In total, 60,586 OSA cases were matched to 60,586 controls (from 1,226,755 total controls). Patients with OSA were more likely to have each of the 20 most common comorbidities compared with controls, with odds ratios ranging from 3.1 to 30.8 in the full matched set and 1.3 to 10.2 after body mass index adjustment. Associations between OSA and these comorbidities were generally stronger in females and patients with younger age at diagnosis. We identified 5 distinct subgroups based on EHR-defined comorbidities: High Comorbidity Burden, Low Comorbidity Burden, Cardiovascular Comorbidities, Inflammatory Conditions and Less Obesity, and Inflammatory Conditions and Obesity. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates the power of leveraging the EHR to understand the relative health burden of OSA, as well as heterogeneity in these relationships based on age and sex. In addition to enrichment for comorbidities, we identified 5 novel OSA subtypes defined by combinations of comorbidities in the EHR, which may be informative for understanding disease outcomes and improving prevention and clinical care. Overall, this study adds more evidence that OSA is heterogeneous and requires personalized management. CITATION: Te TT, Keenan BT, Veatch OJ, Boland MR, Hubbard RA, Pack AI. Identifying clusters of patient comorbidities associated with obstructive sleep apnea using electronic health records. J Clin Sleep Med. 2024;20(4):521-533.

Data gaps and opportunities for modeling cancer health equity.

Population models of cancer reflect the overall US population by drawing on numerous existing data resources for parameter inputs and calibration targets. Models require data inputs that are appropriately representative, collected in a harmonized manner, have minimal missing or inaccurate values, and reflect adequate sample sizes. Data resource priorities for population modeling to support cancer health equity include increasing the availability of data that 1) arise from uninsured and underinsured individuals and those traditionally not included in health-care delivery studies, 2) reflect relevant exposures for groups historically and intentionally excluded across the full cancer control continuum, 3) disaggregate categories (race, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, gender, sexual orientation, etc.) and their intersections that conceal important variation in health outcomes, 4) identify specific populations of interest in clinical databases whose health outcomes have been understudied, 5) enhance health records through expanded data elements and linkage with other data types (eg, patient surveys, provider and/or facility level information, neighborhood data), 6) decrease missing and misclassified data from historically underrecognized populations, and 7) capture potential measures or effects of systemic racism and corresponding intervenable targets for change.

Algorithmic Fairness of Machine Learning Models for Alzheimer Disease Progression.

Importance: Predictive models using machine learning techniques have potential to improve early detection and management of Alzheimer disease (AD). However, these models potentially have biases and may perpetuate or exacerbate existing disparities. Objective: To characterize the algorithmic fairness of longitudinal prediction models for AD progression. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prognostic study investigated the algorithmic fairness of logistic regression, support vector machines, and recurrent neural networks for predicting progression to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and AD using data from participants in the Alzheimer Disease Neuroimaging Initiative evaluated at 57 sites in the US and Canada. Participants aged 54 to 91 years who contributed data on at least 2 visits between September 2005 and May 2017 were included. Data were analyzed in October 2022. Exposures: Fairness was quantified across sex, ethnicity, and race groups. Neuropsychological test scores, anatomical features from T1 magnetic resonance imaging, measures extracted from positron emission tomography, and cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers were included as predictors. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcome measures quantified fairness of prediction models (logistic regression [LR], support vector machine [SVM], and recurrent neural network [RNN] models), including equal opportunity, equalized odds, and demographic parity. Specifically, if the model exhibited equal sensitivity for all groups, it aligned with the principle of equal opportunity, indicating fairness in predictive performance. Results: A total of 1730 participants in the cohort (mean [SD] age, 73.81 [6.92] years; 776 females [44.9%]; 69 Hispanic [4.0%] and 1661 non-Hispanic [96.0%]; 29 Asian [1.7%], 77 Black [4.5%], 1599 White [92.4%], and 25 other race [1.4%]) were included. Sensitivity for predicting progression to MCI and AD was lower for Hispanic participants compared with non-Hispanic participants; the difference (SD) in true positive rate ranged from 20.9% (5.5%) for the RNN model to 27.8% (9.8%) for the SVM model in MCI and 24.1% (5.4%) for the RNN model to 48.2% (17.3%) for the LR model in AD. Sensitivity was similarly lower for Black and Asian participants compared with non-Hispanic White participants; for example, the difference (SD) in AD true positive rate was 14.5% (51.6%) in the LR model, 12.3% (35.1%) in the SVM model, and 28.4% (16.8%) in the RNN model for Black vs White participants, and the difference (SD) in MCI true positive rate was 25.6% (13.1%) in the LR model, 24.3% (13.1%) in the SVM model, and 6.8% (18.7%) in the RNN model for Asian vs White participants. Models generally satisfied metrics of fairness with respect to sex, with no significant differences by group, except for cognitively normal (CN)-MCI and MCI-AD transitions (eg, an absolute increase [SD] in the true positive rate of CN-MCI transitions of 10.3% [27.8%] for the LR model). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, models were accurate in aggregate but failed to satisfy fairness metrics. These findings suggest that fairness should be considered in the development and use of machine learning models for AD progression.

ReMiND: Recovery of Missing Neuroimaging using Diffusion Models with Application to Alzheimer's Disease.

Objective: Missing data is a significant challenge in medical research. In longitudinal studies of Alzheimer's disease (AD) where structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is collected from individuals at multiple time points, participants may miss a study visit or drop out. Additionally, technical issues such as participant motion in the scanner may result in unusable imaging data at designated visits. Such missing data may hinder the development of high-quality imaging-based biomarkers. Furthermore, when imaging data are unavailable in clinical practice, patients may not benefit from effective application of biomarkers for disease diagnosis and monitoring. Methods: To address the problem of missing MRI data in studies of AD, we introduced a novel 3D diffusion model specifically designed for imputing missing structural MRI (Recovery of Missing Neuroimaging using Diffusion models (ReMiND)). The model generates a whole-brain image conditional on a single structural MRI observed at a past visit or conditional on one past and one future observed structural MRI relative to the missing observation. Results: Experimental results show that our method can generate high-quality individual 3D structural MRI with high similarity to ground truth, observed images. Additionally, images generated using ReMiND exhibit relatively lower error rates and more accurately estimated rates of atrophy over time in important anatomical brain regions compared with two alternative imputation approaches: forward filling and image generation using variational autoencoders. Conclusion: Our 3D diffusion model can impute missing structural MRI data at a single designated visit and outperforms alternative methods for imputing whole-brain images that are missing from longitudinal trajectories.

Outcomes in infants with unprovoked venous thromboembolism: A retrospective cohort study.

Background: Although children aged <1 year have a relatively high rate of venous thromboembolism (VTE) compared to older children, most have additional prothrombotic risk factors. Unprovoked VTE is rare, and little is known about this population, particularly the risk of recurrent VTE. Objectives: We aimed to determine the rate of recurrent VTE in infants with prior unprovoked VTE and evaluate long-term, end-organ outcomes for infants with renal and intracranial vein thrombosis. Methods: Infants <1 year of age with an unprovoked VTE between 2003 and 2021 at a single institution were included. Time to recurrent event and anticoagulation duration were summarized using the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Neurologic outcomes were summarized with the pediatric stroke outcome measure for infants with cerebral sinovenous, medullary, or cortical vein thrombosis. Kidney outcomes were summarized with estimated glomerular filtration rates for infants with renal vein thrombosis. Anticoagulation was summarized. Results: Forty infants with intracranial, renal, portal, and extremity VTE met the inclusion criteria and were followed for a median of 4.7 years (IQR, 2.1-8.5). Most VTE events occurred during the first month of life. There was 1 recurrent event in 237 person-years of follow-up (incidence rate, 4 per 1000 [95% CI, 0.6-29.9] person-years). In outpatient follow-up, 40% of infants with intracranial thrombosis met criteria for moderate or severe neurologic outcomes and two-thirds of infants with a prior renal vein thrombosis had abnormal kidney function (estimated glomerular filtration rate < 90 mL/min/1.73 m2). Conclusion: There is a low rate of recurrent VTE but significant end-organ morbidity in infants with unprovoked VTE.

Lung Cancer Screening Decision Aid Designed for a Primary Care Setting: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Guidelines recommend shared decision-making prior to initiating lung cancer screening (LCS). However, evidence is lacking on how to best implement shared decision-making in clinical practice. Objective: To evaluate the impact of an LCS Decision Tool (LCSDecTool) on the quality of decision-making and LCS uptake. Design, Setting, and Participants: This randomized clinical trial enrolled participants at Veteran Affairs Medical Centers in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Milwaukee, Wisconsin; and West Haven, Connecticut, from March 18, 2019, to September 29, 2021, with follow-up through July 18, 2022. Individuals aged 55 to 80 years with a smoking history of at least 30 pack-years who were current smokers or had quit within the past 15 years were eligible to participate. Individuals with LCS within 15 months were excluded. Of 1047 individuals who were sent a recruitment letter or had referred themselves, 140 were enrolled. Intervention: A web-based patient- and clinician-facing LCS decision support tool vs an attention control intervention. Main Outcome and Measures: The primary outcome was decisional conflict at 1 month. Secondary outcomes included decisional conflict immediately after intervention and 3 months after intervention, knowledge, decisional regret, and anxiety immediately after intervention and 1 and 3 months after intervention and LCS by 6 months. Results: Of 140 enrolled participants (median age, 64.0 [IQR, 61.0-69.0] years), 129 (92.1%) were men and 11 (7.9%) were women. Of 137 participants with data available, 75 (53.6%) were African American or Black and 62 (44.3%) were White; 4 participants (2.9%) also reported Hispanic or Latino ethnicity. Mean decisional conflict score at 1 month did not differ between the LCSDecTool and control groups (25.7 [95% CI, 21.4-30.1] vs 29.9 [95% CI, 25.6-34.2], respectively; P = .18). Mean LCS knowledge score was greater in the LCSDecTool group immediately after intervention (7.0 [95% CI, 6.3-7.7] vs 4.9 [95% CI, 4.3-5.5]; P < .001) and remained higher at 1 month (6.3 [95% CI, 5.7-6.8] vs 5.2 [95% CI, 4.5-5.8]; P = .03) and 3 months (6.2 [95% CI, 5.6-6.8] vs 5.1 [95% CI, 4.4-5.8]; P = .01). Uptake of LCS was greater in the LCSDecTool group at 6 months (26 of 69 [37.7%] vs 15 of 71 [21.1%]; P = .04). Conclusions and Relevance: In this randomized clinical trial of an LCSDecTool compared with attention control, no effect on decisional conflict occurred at 1 month. The LCSDecTool used in the primary care setting did not yield a significant difference in decisional conflict. The intervention led to greater knowledge and LCS uptake. These findings can inform future implementation strategies and research in LCS shared decision-making. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02899754.

Estimation and evaluation of individualized treatment rules following multiple imputation.

An individualized treatment rule (ITR) is a function that inputs patient-level information and outputs a recommended treatment. An important focus of precision medicine is to develop optimal ITRs that maximize a population-level distributional summary. However, guidance for estimating and evaluating optimal ITRs in the presence of missing data is limited. Our work is motivated by the Social Incentives to Encourage Physical Activity and Understand Predictors (STEP UP) study. Participants were randomized to a control or one of three interventions designed to increase physical activity and were given wearable devices to record daily steps as a measure of physical activity. Many participants were missing at least one daily step count during the study period. In the primary analysis of the STEP UP trial, multiple imputation (MI) was used to address missingness in daily step counts. Despite ubiquitous use of MI in practice, it has been given relatively little attention in the context of personalized medicine. We fill this gap by describing two frameworks for estimation and evaluation of an optimal ITR following MI and assessing their performance using simulated data. One framework relies on splitting the data into independent training and testing sets for estimation and evaluation, respectively. The other framework estimates an optimal ITR using the full data and constructs an m $$ m $$ -out-of- n $$ n $$ bootstrap confidence interval to evaluate its performance. Finally, we provide an illustrative analysis to estimate and evaluate an optimal ITR from the STEP UP data with a focus on practical considerations such as choosing the number of imputations.

Temporal Trends and Factors Associated with Receipt of Post-mastectomy Radiation After Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Women with cT3 Breast Cancer.

INTRODUCTION: Given the potential impact of increasingly effective neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) on post-mastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT) recommendations, we examined temporal trends in post-NACT PMRT for cT3 breast cancer. METHODS: We identified women ≥ 18 years in the National Cancer Database (NCDB) diagnosed 2004-2019 with cT3N0-1M0 breast cancer treated with chemotherapy and mastectomy. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate associations between pathologic NACT response [complete response (CR), partial response (PR), or no response (NR); or disease progression (DP)] and PMRT and between PMRT and overall survival (OS), respectively. RESULTS: We identified 39,901 women (Asian/Pacific Islander 1731, Black 5875, Hispanic 3265, White 27,303). Among cN0 patients with CR, PMRT rates declined from 67% in 2004 to 35% in 2019 but remained unchanged for patients with DP. Relative to NR, CR [odds ratio (OR) 0.36, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.29-0.46] and PR (OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.36-0.55) in cN0 patients were associated with lower odds of PMRT while DP (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.05-1.69) was associated with higher odds. Among cN1 patients, PMRT rates decreased from 90% to 73% for CR between 2005 and 2019 and increased from 76% to 82% for DP between 2004 and 2019. Relative to NR, CR (OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.63-0.95) was associated with lower odds of PMRT while DP (OR 1.93, 95% CI 1.58-2.37) was associated with higher odds. PMRT was associated with improved OS among cN1 patients (hazard ratio (HR) 0.77, 95% CI 0.67-0.88). CONCLUSION: CR was associated with decreased PMRT receipt over time, while temporal trends following PR and DP differed by cN status, suggesting that nodal involvement guided PMRT receipt more than in-breast disease.

Risk of admission to hospital with arterial or venous thromboembolism among patients diagnosed in the ambulatory setting with covid-19 compared with influenza: retrospective cohort study.

Objective: To measure the 90 day risk of arterial thromboembolism and venous thromboembolism among patients diagnosed with covid-19 in the ambulatory (ie, outpatient, emergency department, or institutional) setting during periods before and during covid-19 vaccine availability and compare results to patients with ambulatory diagnosed influenza. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Setting: Four integrated health systems and two national health insurers in the US Food and Drug Administration's Sentinel System. Participants: Patients with ambulatory diagnosed covid-19 when vaccines were unavailable in the US (period 1, 1 April-30 November 2020; n=272 065) and when vaccines were available in the US (period 2, 1 December 2020-31 May 2021; n=342 103), and patients with ambulatory diagnosed influenza (1 October 2018-30 April 2019; n=118 618). Main outcome measures: Arterial thromboembolism (hospital diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction or ischemic stroke) and venous thromboembolism (hospital diagnosis of acute deep venous thrombosis or pulmonary embolism) within 90 days after ambulatory covid-19 or influenza diagnosis. We developed propensity scores to account for differences between the cohorts and used weighted Cox regression to estimate adjusted hazard ratios of outcomes with 95% confidence intervals for covid-19 during periods 1 and 2 versus influenza. Results: 90 day absolute risk of arterial thromboembolism with covid-19 was 1.01% (95% confidence interval 0.97% to 1.05%) during period 1, 1.06% (1.03% to 1.10%) during period 2, and with influenza was 0.45% (0.41% to 0.49%). The risk of arterial thromboembolism was higher for patients with covid-19 during period 1 (adjusted hazard ratio 1.53 (95% confidence interval 1.38 to 1.69)) and period 2 (1.69 (1.53 to 1.86)) than for patients with influenza. 90 day absolute risk of venous thromboembolism with covid-19 was 0.73% (0.70% to 0.77%) during period 1, 0.88% (0.84 to 0.91%) during period 2, and with influenza was 0.18% (0.16% to 0.21%). Risk of venous thromboembolism was higher with covid-19 during period 1 (adjusted hazard ratio 2.86 (2.46 to 3.32)) and period 2 (3.56 (3.08 to 4.12)) than with influenza. Conclusions: Patients diagnosed with covid-19 in the ambulatory setting had a higher 90 day risk of admission to hospital with arterial thromboembolism and venous thromboembolism both before and after covid-19 vaccine availability compared with patients with influenza.

Linking Ambient NO2 Pollution Measures with Electronic Health Record Data to Study Asthma Exacerbations.

Electronic health record (EHR)-derived data can be linked to geospatially distributed socioeconomic and environmental factors to conduct large-scale epidemiologic studies. Ambient NO2 is a known environmental risk factor for asthma. However, health exposure studies often rely on data from geographically sparse regulatory monitors that may not reflect true individual exposure. We contrasted use of interpolated NO2 regulatory monitor data with raw satellite measurements and satellite-derived ground estimates, building on previous work which has computed improved exposure estimates from remotely sensed data. Raw satellite and satellite-derived ground measurements captured spatial variation missed by interpolated ground monitor measurements. Multivariable analyses comparing these three NO2 measurement approaches (interpolated monitor, raw satellite, and satellite-derived) revealed a positive relationship between exposure and asthma exacerbations for both satellite measurements. Exposure-outcome relationships using the interpolated monitor NO2 were inconsistent with known relationships to asthma, suggesting that interpolated monitor data might yield misleading results in small region studies.

Sources of Disparities in Surveillance Mammography Performance and Risk-Guided Recommendations for Supplemental Breast Imaging: A Simulation Study.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance mammography is recommended for all women with a history of breast cancer. Risk-guided surveillance incorporating advanced imaging modalities based on individual risk of a second cancer could improve cancer detection. However, personalized surveillance may also amplify disparities. METHODS: In simulated populations using inputs from the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC), we investigated race- and ethnicity-based disparities. Disparities were decomposed into those due to primary breast cancer and treatment characteristics, social determinants of health (SDOH) and differential error in second cancer ascertainment by modeling populations with or without variation across race and ethnicity in the distribution of these characteristics. We estimated effects of disparities on mammography performance and supplemental imaging recommendations stratified by race and ethnicity. RESULTS: In simulated cohorts based on 65,446 BCSC surveillance mammograms, when only cancer characteristics varied by race and ethnicity, mammograms for Black women had lower sensitivity compared with the overall population (64.1% vs. 71.1%). Differences between Black women and the overall population were larger when both cancer characteristics and SDOH varied by race and ethnicity (53.8% vs. 71.1%). Basing supplemental imaging recommendations on high predicted second cancer risk resulted in less frequent recommendations for Hispanic (6.7%) and Asian/Pacific Islander women (6.4%) compared with the overall population (10.0%). CONCLUSIONS: Variation in cancer characteristics and SDOH led to disparities in surveillance mammography performance and recommendations for supplemental imaging. IMPACT: Risk-guided surveillance imaging may exacerbate disparities. Decision-makers should consider implications for equity in cancer outcomes resulting from implementing risk-guided screening programs. See related In the Spotlight, p. 1479.

Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting and Confounder Missingness in Electronic Health Record-based Analyses: A Comparison of Approaches Using Plasmode Simulation.

BACKGROUND: Electronic health record (EHR) data represent a critical resource for comparative effectiveness research, allowing investigators to study intervention effects in real-world settings with large patient samples. However, high levels of missingness in confounder variables is common, challenging the perceived validity of EHR-based investigations. METHODS: We investigated performance of multiple imputation and propensity score (PS) calibration when conducting inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTW)-based comparative effectiveness research using EHR data with missingness in confounder variables and outcome misclassification. Our motivating example compared effectiveness of immunotherapy versus chemotherapy treatment of advanced bladder cancer with missingness in a key prognostic variable. We captured complexity in EHR data structures using a plasmode simulation approach to spike investigator-defined effects into resamples of a cohort of 4361 patients from a nationwide deidentified EHR-derived database. We characterized statistical properties of IPTW hazard ratio estimates when using multiple imputation or PS calibration missingness approaches. RESULTS: Multiple imputation and PS calibration performed similarly, maintaining ≤0.05 absolute bias in the marginal hazard ratio even when ≥50% of subjects had missing at random or missing not at random confounder data. Multiple imputation required greater computational resources, taking nearly 40 times as long as PS calibration to complete. Outcome misclassification minimally increased bias of both methods. CONCLUSION: Our results support multiple imputation and PS calibration approaches to missingness in missing completely at random or missing at random confounder variables in EHR-based IPTW comparative effectiveness analyses, even with missingness ≥50%. PS calibration represents a computationally efficient alternative to multiple imputation.