Dynamics of HIV PrEP use and coverage during and after COVID-19 in Germany.

BACKGROUND: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with oral emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil (FTC/TDF) proved highly efficient in preventing HIV. Since 09/2019, FTC/TDF-PrEP is covered by health insurances in Germany, if prescribed by licensed specialists. However, methods to longitudinally monitor progress in PrEP implementation in Germany are lacking. METHODS: Utilizing anonymous FTC/TDF prescription data from 2017-2021, we developed a mathematical model to disentangle HIV-treatment from PrEP prescriptions, as well as to translate PrEP prescriptions into number of PrEP users. We used the model to estimate past- and future PrEP uptake dynamics, to predict coverage of PrEP needs and to quantify the impact of COVID-19 on PrEP uptake on a national and regional level. RESULTS: We identified significant (p<0.01) decelerating effects of the first- and second COVID-19-lockdown on PrEP uptake in 04/2020 and 12/2020. We estimated 26,159 (CI: 25,751-26,571) PrEP users by 12/2021, corresponding to 33% PrEP coverage of people in need. We projected 64,794 (CI: 62,956-66,557) PrEP users by 12/2030, corresponding to 81% PrEP coverage. We identified profound regional differences, with high PrEP coverage and uptake in metropoles and low coverage in more rural regions. CONCLUSIONS: Our approach presents a comprehensive solution to monitor and forecast PrEP implementation from anonymous data and highlighted that the COVID-19 pandemic significantly decelerated PrEP uptake in Germany. Moreover, slow PrEP uptake in rural areas indicate that structural barriers in PrEP care, education or information exist that may hamper the goal of ending the AIDS epidemic by 2030.

Model-based predictions of protective HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis adherence levels in cisgender women.

Most human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections occur in cisgender women in resource-limited settings. In women, self-protection with emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate pre-exposure prophylaxis (FTC/TDF-PrEP) constitutes a major pillar of HIV prevention. However, clinical trials in women had inconsistent outcomes, sparking uncertainty about adherence requirements and reluctance in evaluating on-demand regimens. We analyzed data from published FTC/TDF-PrEP trials to establish efficacy ranges in cisgender women. In a 'bottom-up' approach, we modeled hypotheses in the context of risk-group-specific, adherence-efficacy profiles and challenged those hypotheses with clinical data. We found that different clinical outcomes were related to the proportion of women taking the product, allowing coherent interpretation of the data. Our analysis showed that 90% protection was achieved when women took some product. We found that hypotheses of putative male/female differences were either not impactful or statistically inconsistent with clinical data. We propose that differing clinical outcomes could arise from pill-taking behavior rather than biological factors driving specific adherence requirements in cisgender women.

Synthesis of protective oral PrEP adherence levels in cisgender women using convergent clinical- and bottom-up modeling.

Globally, most HIV infections occur in heterosexual women in resource-limited settings. In these settings, female self-protection with generic emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate pre-exposure prophylaxis (FTC/TDF-PrEP) may constitute a major pillar of the HIV prevention portfolio. However, clinical trials in women had inconsistent outcomes, sparking uncertainty regarding risk-group specific adherence requirements and causing reluctance in testing and recommending on-demand regimen in women. We analyzed all FTC/TDF-PrEP trials to establish PrEP efficacy ranges in women. In a 'bottom-up' approach, we modeled hypotheses corroborating risk-group specific adherence-efficacy profiles. Finally, we used the clinical efficacy ranges to (in-)validate hypotheses. We found that different clinical outcomes could solely be explained by the proportion of enrolled participants not taking the product, allowing, for the first time, to unify clinical observations. This analysis showed that 90% protection was achieved, when women took some of the product. Using 'bottom-up' modelling, we found that hypotheses of putative male/female differences were either irrelevant, or statistically inconsistent with clinical data. Furthermore, our multiscale modelling indicated that 90% protection was achieved if oral FTC/TDF was taken at least twice weekly.

Mathematical Modelling of the Molecular Mechanisms of Interaction of Tenofovir with Emtricitabine against HIV.

The combination of the two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) and emtricitabine (FTC) is used in most highly active antiretroviral therapies for treatment of HIV-1 infection, as well as in pre-exposure prophylaxis against HIV acquisition. Administered as prodrugs, these drugs are taken up by HIV-infected target cells, undergo intracellular phosphorylation and compete with natural deoxynucleoside triphosphates (dNTP) for incorporation into nascent viral DNA during reverse transcription. Once incorporated, they halt reverse transcription. In vitro studies have proposed that TDF and FTC act synergistically within an HIV-infected cell. However, it is unclear whether, and which, direct drug-drug interactions mediate the apparent synergy. The goal of this work was to refine a mechanistic model for the molecular mechanism of action (MMOA) of nucleoside analogues in order to analyse whether putative direct interactions may account for the in vitro observed synergistic effects. Our analysis suggests that depletion of dNTP pools can explain apparent synergy between TDF and FTC in HIV-infected cells at clinically relevant concentrations. Dead-end complex (DEC) formation does not seem to significantly contribute to the synergistic effect. However, in the presence of non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), its role might be more relevant, as previously reported in experimental in vitro studies.