Cost-effectiveness of pancreas surveillance: The CDKN2A-p16-Leiden cohort.

BACKGROUND: CDKN2A-p16-Leiden mutation carriers have a high lifetime risk of developing pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), with very poor survival. Surveillance may improve prognosis. OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of surveillance, as compared to no surveillance. METHODS: In 2000, a surveillance program was initiated at Leiden University Medical Center with annual MRI and optional endoscopic ultrasound. Data were collected on the resection rate of screen-detected tumors and on survival. The Kaplan-Meier method and a parametric cure model were used to analyze and compare survival. Based on the surveillance and survival data from the screening program, a state-transition model was constructed to estimate lifelong outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 347 mutation carriers participated in the surveillance program. PDAC was detected in 31 patients (8.9%) and the tumor could be resected in 22 patients (71.0%). Long-term cure among patients with resected PDAC was estimated at 47.1% (p < 0.001). The surveillance program was estimated to reduce mortality from PDAC by 12.1% and increase average life expectancy by 2.10 years. Lifelong costs increased by €13,900 per patient, with a cost-utility ratio of €14,000 per quality-adjusted life year gained. For annual surveillance to have an acceptable cost-effectiveness in other settings, lifetime PDAC risk needs to be 10% or higher. CONCLUSION: The tumor could be resected in most patients with a screen-detected PDAC. These patients had considerably better survival and as a result annual surveillance was found to be cost-effective.

Pancreatic Cancer Surveillance in Carriers of a Germline CDKN2A Pathogenic Variant: Yield and Outcomes of a 20-Year Prospective Follow-Up.

PURPOSE: Pancreatic cancer surveillance in high-risk individuals may lead to detection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) at an earlier stage and with improved survival. This study evaluated the yield and outcomes of 20 years of prospective surveillance in a large cohort of individuals with germline pathogenic variants (PVs) in CDKN2A. METHODS: Prospectively collected data were analyzed from individuals participating in pancreatic cancer surveillance. Surveillance consisted of annual magnetic resonance imaging with magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography and optional endoscopic ultrasound. RESULTS: Three hundred forty-seven germline PV carriers participated in surveillance and were followed for a median of 5.6 (interquartile range 2.3-9.9) years. A total of 36 cases of PDAC were diagnosed in 31 (8.9%) patients at a median age of 60.4 (interquartile range 51.3-64.1) years. The cumulative incidence of primary PDAC was 20.7% by age 70 years. Five carriers (5 of 31; 16.1%) were diagnosed with a second primary PDAC. Thirty (83.3%) of 36 PDACs were considered resectable at the time of imaging. Twelve cases (12 of 36; 33.3%) presented with stage I disease. The median survival after diagnosis of primary PDAC was 26.8 months, and the 5-year survival rate was 32.4% (95% CI, 19.1 to 54.8). Individuals with primary PDAC who underwent resection (22 of 31; 71.0%) had an overall 5-year survival rate of 44.1% (95% CI, 27.2 to 71.3). Nine (2.6%; 9 of 347) individuals underwent surgery for a suspected malignant lesion, which proved to not be PDAC, and this included five lesions with low-grade dysplasia. CONCLUSION: This long-term surveillance study demonstrates a high incidence of PDAC in carriers of a PV in CDKN2A. This provides evidence that surveillance in such a high-risk population leads to detection of early-stage PDAC with improved resectability and survival.

Incidental findings in pancreas screening programs for high-risk individuals: Results from three European expert centers.

Background: Widespread abdominal imaging has led to a substantial increase in the detection of incidentalomas. Currently, an increasing number of centers offer surveillance of the pancreas to individuals at high risk (IARs) of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Objective: The aims of this study were to evaluate the frequency and type of incidental findings in a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based surveillance program for IARs for PDAC, and to discuss the benefit of detecting these lesions. Methods: The outcome of MRI screening was reviewed in 568 individuals from three long-term pancreas surveillance programs conducted at three large European expert centers. All MRIs were studied in detail for the presence of incidental lesions. Results: The most common lesions were liver cysts, renal cysts and liver hemangioma, which together comprised 75% of all lesions. Only five (0.9%) patients underwent surgery for a benign lesion. Cancer was detected in 11 patients (1.9%); early detection of tumors was beneficial in at least five cases. Conclusion: The present study demonstrates that extrapancreatic incidentaloma is a common finding in IARs for PDAC, but rarely requires additional treatment. CDKN2A-p16-Leiden mutation carriers were the only patient group found to harbor a substantial number of cancers, and detection resulted in benefit in several cases.

Dilatation of the main pancreatic duct as first manifestation of small pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas detected in a hereditary pancreatic cancer surveillance program.

BACKGROUND: MRI surveillance in a cohort of CDKN2A-p16-Leiden mutation carriers with a 20% lifetime risk of PDAC led to increased resection rates and improved survival. Patients with screen-detected PDAC were evaluated for main pancreatic duct (MPD) abnormalities in this retrospective review. METHODS: Since 2000 annual MRI and optional EUS was performed in mutation carriers. Data of patients with screen-detected PDAC was collected on gender, age at diagnosis, site of tumor, size, outcome of surgery, pathology findings and survival. All MRIs were re-evaluated for MPD abnormalities. RESULTS: 23 PDAC were detected in 22 (10%) of 217 mutation carriers, 10 (45%) males and 12 (55%) females. The mean age at diagnosis was 59.8 years (range 39.2-74.3 years). Revision of the MRI/MRCP revealed a lesion and dilatation of the MPD in 8 of the 22 patients. In 5 of 7 patients with PDAC detected during follow-up, the previous MRI showed MPD dilatation without evidence of tumor. The mean size of PDAC was 12.3 mm (range 5-19 mm). All tumors were resectable. CONCLUSION: MPD dilation is common in patients with screen-detected PDAC. Abnormalities on MRI during surveillance of high-risk individuals requires intense follow-up or prompt treatment, as early treatment results in a better prognosis.

High Growth Rate of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma in CDKN2A-p16-Leiden Mutation Carriers.

CDKN2A-p16-Leiden mutation carriers have a 20% to 25% risk of developing pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Better understanding of the natural course of PDAC might allow the surveillance protocol to be improved. The aims of the study were to evaluate the role of cystic precursor lesions in the development of PDAC and to assess the growth rate. In 2000, a surveillance program was initiated, consisting of annual MRI in carriers of a CDKN2A-p16-Leiden mutation. The study cohort included 204 (42% male) patients. Cystic precursor lesions were found in 52 (25%) of 204 mutation carriers. Five (9.7%) of 52 mutation carriers with cystic lesions and 8 (7.0%) of 114 mutation carriers without cystic lesions developed PDAC (P = 0.56). Three of 6 patients with a cystic lesion of ≥10 mm developed PDAC. The median size of all incident PDAC detected between 9 and 12 months since the previous normal MRI was 15 mm, suggesting an annual growth rate of about 15 mm/year. In conclusion, our findings show that patients with and without a cystic lesions have a similar risk of PDAC. However, cystic precursor lesions between 10 and 20 mm increase the risk of PDAC substantially. In view of the large size of the screen-detected tumors, a shorter interval of screening might be recommended for all patients. Cancer Prev Res; 11(9); 551-6. ©2018 AACR.

Dilemmas in the management of screen-detected lesions in patients at high risk for pancreatic cancer.

In 3-5 % of all cases of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), hereditary factors influence etiology. While surveillance of high-risk individuals may improve the prognosis, this study describes two very different outcomes in patients with screen-detected lesions. In 2000, a surveillance program of carriers of a CDKN2A/p16-Leiden-mutation consisting of annual MRI was initiated. Patients with a suspected pancreatic lesion undergo CT-scan and Endoscopic Ultrasound, and surgery is offered when a lesion is confirmed. In 2015, two patients with a screen-detected solid lesion were identified. In both patients, lesions were visible on MRI and CT scan, while the EUS was unremarkable. Surgical resection of the head of the pancreas resulted in nearly fatal complications in the first patient. This patient was shown to have a benign lesion. In contrast, timely identification of an early cancer in the second patient was accompanied by an uneventful postoperative course. These cases underline the risks inherent to a PDAC prevention program. All patients should be fully informed about the possible outcomes before joining a surveillance program.