Personalized Timing for Allogeneic Stem-Cell Transplantation in Hematologic Neoplasms: A Target Trial Emulation Approach Using Multistate Modeling and Microsimulation.

PURPOSE: Decision about the optimal timing of a treatment procedure in patients with hematologic neoplasms is critical, especially for cellular therapies (most including allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation [HSCT]). In the absence of evidence from randomized trials, real-world observational data become beneficial to study the effect of the treatment timing. In this study, a framework to estimate the expected outcome after an intervention in a time-to-event scenario is developed, with the aim of optimizing the timing in a personalized manner. METHODS: Retrospective real-world data are leveraged to emulate a target trial for treatment timing using multistate modeling and microsimulation. This case study focuses on myelodysplastic syndromes, serving as a prototype for rare cancers characterized by a heterogeneous clinical course and complex genomic background. A cohort of 7,118 patients treated according to conventional available treatments/evidence across Europe and United States is analyzed. The primary clinical objective is to determine the ideal timing for HSCT, the only curative option for these patients. RESULTS: This analysis enabled us to identify the most appropriate time frames for HSCT on the basis of each patient's unique profile, defined by a combination relevant patients' characteristics. CONCLUSION: The developed methodology offers a structured framework to address a relevant clinical issue in the field of hematology. It makes several valuable contributions: (1) novel insights into how to develop decision models to identify the most favorable HSCT timing, (2) evidence to inform clinical decisions in a real-world context, and (3) the incorporation of complex information into decision making. This framework can be applied to provide medical insights for clinical issues that cannot be adequately addressed through randomized clinical trials.

Clinical and Genomic-Based Decision Support System to Define the Optimal Timing of Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem-Cell Transplantation in Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndromes.

PURPOSE: Allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HSCT) is the only potentially curative treatment for patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). Several issues must be considered when evaluating the benefits and risks of HSCT for patients with MDS, with the timing of transplantation being a crucial question. Here, we aimed to develop and validate a decision support system to define the optimal timing of HSCT for patients with MDS on the basis of clinical and genomic information as provided by the Molecular International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-M). PATIENTS AND METHODS: We studied a retrospective population of 7,118 patients, stratified into training and validation cohorts. A decision strategy was built to estimate the average survival over an 8-year time horizon (restricted mean survival time [RMST]) for each combination of clinical and genomic covariates and to determine the optimal transplantation policy by comparing different strategies. RESULTS: Under an IPSS-M based policy, patients with either low and moderate-low risk benefited from a delayed transplantation policy, whereas in those belonging to moderately high-, high- and very high-risk categories, immediate transplantation was associated with a prolonged life expectancy (RMST). Modeling decision analysis on IPSS-M versus conventional Revised IPSS (IPSS-R) changed the transplantation policy in a significant proportion of patients (15% of patient candidate to be immediately transplanted under an IPSS-R-based policy would benefit from a delayed strategy by IPSS-M, whereas 19% of candidates to delayed transplantation by IPSS-R would benefit from immediate HSCT by IPSS-M), resulting in a significant gain-in-life expectancy under an IPSS-M-based policy (P = .001). CONCLUSION: These results provide evidence for the clinical relevance of including genomic features into the transplantation decision making process, allowing personalizing the hazards and effectiveness of HSCT in patients with MDS.

A NLP-based semi-automatic identification system for delays in follow-up examinations: an Italian case study on clinical referrals.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to propose a semi-automatic method for monitoring the waiting times of follow-up examinations within the National Health System (NHS) in Italy, which is currently not possible to due the absence of the necessary structured information in the official databases. METHODS: A Natural Language Processing (NLP) based pipeline has been developed to extract the waiting time information from the text of referrals for follow-up examinations in the Lombardy Region. A manually annotated dataset of 10 000 referrals has been used to develop the pipeline and another manually annotated dataset of 10 000 referrals has been used to test its performance. Subsequently, the pipeline has been used to analyze all 12 million referrals prescribed in 2021 and performed by May 2022 in the Lombardy Region. RESULTS: The NLP-based pipeline exhibited high precision (0.999) and recall (0.973) in identifying waiting time information from referrals' texts, with high accuracy in normalization (0.948-0.998). The overall reporting of timing indications in referrals' texts for follow-up examinations was low (2%), showing notable variations across medical disciplines and types of prescribing physicians. Among the referrals reporting waiting times, 16% experienced delays (average delay = 19 days, standard deviation = 34 days), with significant differences observed across medical disciplines and geographical areas. CONCLUSIONS: The use of NLP proved to be a valuable tool for assessing waiting times in follow-up examinations, which are particularly critical for the NHS due to the significant impact of chronic diseases, where follow-up exams are pivotal. Health authorities can exploit this tool to monitor the quality of NHS services and optimize resource allocation.

Flexible Approaches Based on Multistate Models and Microsimulation to Perform Real-World Cost-Effectiveness Analyses: An Application to Proprotein Convertase Subtilisin-Kexin Type 9 Inhibitors.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to show the application of flexible statistical methods in real-world cost-effectiveness analyses applied in the cardiovascular field, focusing specifically on the use of proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9 inhibitors for hyperlipidemia. METHODS: The proposed method allowed us to use an electronic health database to emulate a target trial for cost-effectiveness analysis using multistate modeling and microsimulation. We formally established the study design and provided precise definitions of the causal measures of interest while also outlining the assumptions necessary for accurately estimating these measures using the available data. Additionally, we thoroughly considered goodness-of-fit assessments and sensitivity analyses of the decision model, which are crucial to capture the complexity of individuals' healthcare pathway and to enhance the validity of this type of health economic models. RESULTS: In the disease model, the Markov assumption was found to be inadequate, and a "time-reset" timescale was implemented together with the use of a time-dependent variable to incorporate past hospitalization history. Furthermore, the microsimulation decision model demonstrated a satisfying goodness of fit, as evidenced by the consistent results obtained in the short-term horizon compared with a nonmodel-based approach. Notably, proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9 inhibitors revealed their favorable cost-effectiveness only in the long-term follow-up, with a minimum willingness to pay of 39 000 Euro/life years gained. CONCLUSIONS: The approach demonstrated its significant utility in several ways. Unlike nonmodel-based or alternative model-based methods, it enabled to (1) investigate long-term cost-effectiveness comprehensively, (2) use an appropriate disease model that aligns with the specific problem under study, and (3) conduct subgroup-specific cost-effectiveness analyses to gain more targeted insights.

Patients' Radiation Exposure During Endovascular Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair.

BACKGROUND: To investigate associations between patient characteristics, intraprocedural complexity factors, and radiation exposure to patients during endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR). METHODS: Elective standard EVAR procedures between January 2015 and December 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. Patient characteristics and intraprocedural data (i.e., type of device, endograft configuration, additional procedures, and contralateral gate cannulation time [CGCT]) were collected. Dose area product (DAP) and fluoroscopy time were considered as measurements of radiation exposure. Furthermore, effective dose (ED) and doses to internal organs were calculated using PCXMC 2.0 software. Descriptive statistics, univariable, and multivariable linear regression were applied to investigate predictors of increased radiation exposure. RESULTS: The 99 patients were mostly male (90.9%) with a mean age of 74 ± 7 years. EVAR indications were most frequently abdominal aortic aneurysm (93.9%), penetrating aortic ulceration (2.0%), focal dissection (2.0%), or subacute rupture of infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm (2.0%). Median fluoroscopy time was 19.6 minutes (interquartile range [IQR], 14.1-29.4) and median DAP was 86,311 mGy cm2 (IQR, 60,160-130,385). Median ED was 23.2 mSv (IQR, 17.0-34.8) for 93 patients (93.9%). DAP and ED were positively correlated with body mass index (BMI) and CGCT. Kidneys, small intestine, active bone marrow, colon, and stomach were the organs that received the highest equivalent doses during EVAR. Higher DAP and ED values were observed using the Excluder endograft, other bi- and tri-modular endografts, and EVAR with ≥2 additional procedures. Multivariable linear regression analysis revealed that BMI, ≥2 additional procedures during EVAR, and CGCT were independent positive predictors of DAP and ED levels after accounting for endograft type. CONCLUSIONS: Patient-related and procedure-related factors such as BMI, ≥2 additional procedures during EVAR, and CGCT resulted predictors of radiation exposure for patients undergoing EVAR, as quantified by higher DAP and ED levels. The main intraprocedural factor that increased radiation exposure was CGCT. These data can be of importance for better managing radiation exposure during EVAR.

Dual adversarial deconfounding autoencoder for joint batch-effects removal from multi-center and multi-scanner radiomics data.

Medical imaging represents the primary tool for investigating and monitoring several diseases, including cancer. The advances in quantitative image analysis have developed towards the extraction of biomarkers able to support clinical decisions. To produce robust results, multi-center studies are often set up. However, the imaging information must be denoised from confounding factors-known as batch-effect-like scanner-specific and center-specific influences. Moreover, in non-solid cancers, like lymphomas, effective biomarkers require an imaging-based representation of the disease that accounts for its multi-site spreading over the patient's body. In this work, we address the dual-factor deconfusion problem and we propose a deconfusion algorithm to harmonize the imaging information of patients affected by Hodgkin Lymphoma in a multi-center setting. We show that the proposed model successfully denoises data from domain-specific variability (p-value < 0.001) while it coherently preserves the spatial relationship between imaging descriptions of peer lesions (p-value = 0), which is a strong prognostic biomarker for tumor heterogeneity assessment. This harmonization step allows to significantly improve the performance in prognostic models with respect to state-of-the-art methods, enabling building exhaustive patient representations and delivering more accurate analyses (p-values < 0.001 in training, p-values < 0.05 in testing). This work lays the groundwork for performing large-scale and reproducible analyses on multi-center data that are urgently needed to convey the translation of imaging-based biomarkers into the clinical practice as effective prognostic tools. The code is available on GitHub at this https://github.com/LaraCavinato/Dual-ADAE .

Radiomic Analysis of Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: Non-Invasive Prediction of Pathology Data: A Multicenter Study to Develop a Clinical-Radiomic Model.

Standard imaging cannot assess the pathology details of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). We investigated whether CT-based radiomics may improve the prediction of tumor characteristics. All consecutive patients undergoing liver resection for ICC (2009-2019) in six high-volume centers were evaluated for inclusion. On the preoperative CT, we segmented the ICC (Tumor-VOI, i.e., volume-of-interest) and a 5-mm parenchyma rim around the tumor (Margin-VOI). We considered two types of pathology data: tumor grading (G) and microvascular invasion (MVI). The predictive models were internally validated. Overall, 244 patients were analyzed: 82 (34%) had G3 tumors and 139 (57%) had MVI. For G3 prediction, the clinical model had an AUC = 0.69 and an Accuracy = 0.68 at internal cross-validation. The addition of radiomic features extracted from the portal phase of CT improved the model performance (Clinical data+Tumor-VOI: AUC = 0.73/Accuracy = 0.72; +Tumor-/Margin-VOI: AUC = 0.77/Accuracy = 0.77). Also for MVI prediction, the addition of portal phase radiomics improved the model performance (Clinical data: AUC = 0.75/Accuracy = 0.70; +Tumor-VOI: AUC = 0.82/Accuracy = 0.73; +Tumor-/Margin-VOI: AUC = 0.82/Accuracy = 0.75). The permutation tests confirmed that a combined clinical-radiomic model outperforms a purely clinical one (p < 0.05). The addition of the textural features extracted from the arterial phase had no impact. In conclusion, the radiomic features of the tumor and peritumoral tissue extracted from the portal phase of preoperative CT improve the prediction of ICC grading and MVI.

Capturing the variety of clinical pathways in patients with schizophrenic disorders through state sequences analysis.

BACKGROUND: Care pathways are increasingly being used to enhance the quality of care and optimize the use of resources for health care. Nevertheless, recommendations regarding the sequence of care are mostly based on consensus-based decisions as there is a lack of evidence on effective treatment sequences. In a real-world setting, classical statistical tools were insufficient to consider a phenomenon with such high variability adequately and have to be integrated with novel data mining techniques suitable for identifying patterns in complex data structures. Data-driven techniques can potentially support empirically identifying effective care sequences by extracting them from data collected routinely. The purpose of this study is to perform a state sequence analysis (SSA) to identify different patterns of treatment and to asses whether sequence analysis may be a useful tool for profiling patients according to the treatment pattern. METHODS: The clinical application that motivated the study of this method concerns the mental health field. In fact, the care pathways of patients affected by severe mental disorders often do not correspond to the standards required by the guidelines in this field. In particular, we analyzed patients with schizophrenic disorders (i.e., schizophrenia, schizotypal or delusional disorders) using administrative data from 2015 to 2018 from Lombardy Region. This methodology considers the patient's therapeutic path as a conceptual unit, composed of a succession of different states, and we show how SSA can be used to describe longitudinal patient status. RESULTS: We define the states to be the weekly coverage of different treatments (psychiatric visits, psychosocial interventions, and anti-psychotic drugs), and we use the longest common subsequences (dis)similarity measure to compare and cluster the sequences. We obtained three different clusters with very different patterns of treatments. CONCLUSIONS: This kind of information, such as common patterns of care that allowed us to risk profile patients, can provide health policymakers an opportunity to plan optimum and individualized patient care by allocating appropriate resources, analyzing trends in the health status of a population, and finding the risk factors that can be leveraged to prevent the decline of mental health status at the population level.

Editor's Choice - Comparison of the Reproducibility of Ultrasound Calliper Placement Methods in Abdominal Aortic Diameter Measurements: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Diagnostic Test Accuracy Studies.

OBJECTIVE: To assess which ultrasound (US) method of maximum anteroposterior (AP) abdominal aortic diameter measurement can be considered most reproducible. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, Scopus, and Web of Science were searched (PROSPERO ID: 276694). Eligible studies reported intra- and or interobserver agreement according to Bland-Altman analysis (mean ± standard deviation [SD]) for abdominal aortic diameter AP US evaluations with an outer to outer (OTO), inner to inner (ITI), and or leading edge to leading edge (LELE) calliper placement. REVIEW METHODS: The Preferred Reporting Items for a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Diagnostic Test Accuracy Studies statement was followed. The QUADAS-2 tool and QUADAS-C extension were used for risk of bias assessment and the GRADE framework to rate the certainty of evidence. Pooled estimates (fixed effects meta-analysis, after a test of homogeneity of means) for each US method were compared with pairwise one sided t tests. Sensitivity analyses (for studies published in 2010 or later) and meta-regression were also performed. RESULTS: 21 studies were included in the qualitative analysis. Twelve were eligible for quantitative analysis. Studies showed heterogeneity in the US model and transducer used, sex of participants, and observer professions, expertise, and training. Included studies shared a common mean for each US method (OTO: p = 1.0, ITI: p = 1.0, and LELE: p = 1.0). A pooled estimate of interobserver reproducibility for each US method was obtained, combining the mean ± SD (Bland-Altman analysis) from each study: OTO: 0.182 ± 0.440; ITI: 0.170 ± 0.554; and LELE: 0.437 ± 0.419. There were no statistically significant differences between the methods (OTO vs. ITI: p = .52, OTO vs. LELE: p = .069, ITI vs. LELE: p = .17). Considering studies published in 2010 and later, the pooled estimate for LELE was the smallest, without statistically significant differences between the methods. Despite the low risk of bias, the certainty of the evidence for both meta-analysed outcomes remained low. CONCLUSION: The interobserver reproducibility for OTO and ITI was 2.5 times smaller (indicating better reproducibility) than LELE; however, without statistically significant differences between the methods and low GRADE evidence certainty. Additional data are needed to validate these findings, while inherent differences between the methods need to be emphasised.

Explainable domain transfer of distant supervised cancer subtyping model via imaging-based rules extraction.

Image texture analysis has for decades represented a promising opportunity for cancer assessment and disease progression evaluation, evolving in a discipline, i.e., radiomics. However, the road to a complete translation into clinical practice is still hampered by intrinsic limitations. As purely supervised classification models fail in devising robust imaging-based biomarkers for prognosis, cancer subtyping approaches would benefit from the employment of distant supervision, for instance exploiting survival/recurrence information. In this work, we assessed, tested, and validated the domain-generality of our previously proposed Distant Supervised Cancer Subtyping model on Hodgkin Lymphoma. We evaluate the model performance on two independent datasets coming from two hospitals, comparing and analyzing the results. Although successful and consistent, the comparison confirmed the instability of radiomics due to an across-center lack of reproducibility, leading to explainable results in one center and poor interpretability in the other. We thus propose a Random Forest-based Explainable Transfer Model for testing the domain-invariance of imaging biomarkers extracted from retrospective cancer subtyping. In doing so, we tested the predictive ability of cancer subtyping in a validation and perspective setting, which led to successful results and supported the domain-generality of the proposed approach. On the other hand, the extraction of decision rules enables to draw of risk factors and robust biomarkers to inform clinical decisions. This work shows the potentialities of the Distant Supervised Cancer Subtyping model to be further evaluated in larger multi-center datasets, to reliably translate radiomics into medical practice. The code is available at this GitHub repository.

Radiomics-Based Inter-Lesion Relation Network to Describe [18F]FMCH PET/CT Imaging Phenotypes in Prostate Cancer.

Advanced image analysis, including radiomics, has recently acquired recognition as a source of biomarkers, although there are some technical and methodological challenges to face for its application in the clinic. Among others, proper phenotyping of metastatic or systemic disease where multiple lesions coexist is an issue, since each lesion contributes to characterization of the disease. Therefore, the radiomic profile of each lesion should be modeled into a more complex architecture able to reproduce each "unit" (lesion) as a part of the "entire" (patient). This work aimed to characterize intra-tumor heterogeneity underpinning metastatic prostate cancer using an exhaustive innovative approach which consist of a i) feature transformation method to build an agnostic (i.e., irrespective of pre-existence knowledge, experience, and expertise) radiomic profile of lesions extracted from [18F]FMCH PET/CT, ii) qualitative assessment of intra-tumor heterogeneity of patients, iii) quantitative representation of the intra-tumor heterogeneity of patients in terms of the relationship between their lesions' profiles, to be associated with prognostic factors. We confirmed that metastatic prostate cancer patients encompassed lesions with different radiomic profiles that exhibited intra-tumor radiomic heterogeneity and that the presence of many radiomic profiles within the same patient impacted the outcome.

Learning high-order interactions for polygenic risk prediction.

Within the framework of precision medicine, the stratification of individual genetic susceptibility based on inherited DNA variation has paramount relevance. However, one of the most relevant pitfalls of traditional Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS) approaches is their inability to model complex high-order non-linear SNP-SNP interactions and their effect on the phenotype (e.g. epistasis). Indeed, they incur in a computational challenge as the number of possible interactions grows exponentially with the number of SNPs considered, affecting the statistical reliability of the model parameters as well. In this work, we address this issue by proposing a novel PRS approach, called High-order Interactions-aware Polygenic Risk Score (hiPRS), that incorporates high-order interactions in modeling polygenic risk. The latter combines an interaction search routine based on frequent itemsets mining and a novel interaction selection algorithm based on Mutual Information, to construct a simple and interpretable weighted model of user-specified dimensionality that can predict a given binary phenotype. Compared to traditional PRSs methods, hiPRS does not rely on GWAS summary statistics nor any external information. Moreover, hiPRS differs from Machine Learning-based approaches that can include complex interactions in that it provides a readable and interpretable model and it is able to control overfitting, even on small samples. In the present work we demonstrate through a comprehensive simulation study the superior performance of hiPRS w.r.t. state of the art methods, both in terms of scoring performance and interpretability of the resulting model. We also test hiPRS against small sample size, class imbalance and the presence of noise, showcasing its robustness to extreme experimental settings. Finally, we apply hiPRS to a case study on real data from DACHS cohort, defining an interaction-aware scoring model to predict mortality of stage II-III Colon-Rectal Cancer patients treated with oxaliplatin.

Mapping Tumor Heterogeneity via Local Entropy Assessment: Making Biomarkers Visible.

Advanced imaging and analysis improve prediction of pathology data and outcomes in several tumors, with entropy-based measures being among the most promising biomarkers. However, entropy is often perceived as statistical data lacking clinical significance. We aimed to generate a voxel-by-voxel visual map of local tumor entropy, thus allowing to (1) make entropy explainable and accessible to clinicians; (2) disclose and quantitively characterize any intra-tumoral entropy heterogeneity; (3) evaluate associations between entropy and pathology data. We analyzed the portal phase of preoperative CT of 20 patients undergoing liver surgery for colorectal metastases. A three-dimensional core kernel (5 × 5 × 5 voxels) was created and used to compute the local entropy value for each voxel of the tumor. The map was encoded with a color palette. We performed two analyses: (a) qualitative assessment of tumors' detectability and pattern of entropy distribution; (b) quantitative analysis of the entropy values distribution. The latter data were compared with standard Hounsfield data as predictors of post-chemotherapy tumor regression grade (TRG). Entropy maps were successfully built for all tumors. Metastases were qualitatively hyper-entropic compared to surrounding parenchyma. In four cases hyper-entropic areas exceeded the tumor margin visible at CT. We identified four "entropic" patterns: homogeneous, inhomogeneous, peripheral rim, and mixed. At quantitative analysis, entropy-derived data (percentiles/mean/median/root mean square) predicted TRG (p < 0.05) better than Hounsfield-derived ones (p = n.s.). We present a standardized imaging technique to visualize tumor heterogeneity built on a voxel-by-voxel entropy assessment. The association of local entropy with pathology data supports its role as a biomarker.

Detecting early signals of COVID-19 outbreaks in 2020 in small areas by monitoring healthcare utilisation databases: first lessons learned from the Italian Alert_CoV project.

BackgroundDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, large-scale diagnostic testing and contact tracing have proven insufficient to promptly monitor the spread of infections.AimTo develop and retrospectively evaluate a system identifying aberrations in the use of selected healthcare services to timely detect COVID-19 outbreaks in small areas.MethodsData were retrieved from the healthcare utilisation (HCU) databases of the Lombardy Region, Italy. We identified eight services suggesting a respiratory infection (syndromic proxies). Count time series reporting the weekly occurrence of each proxy from 2015 to 2020 were generated considering small administrative areas (i.e. census units of Cremona and Mantua provinces). The ability to uncover aberrations during 2020 was tested for two algorithms: the improved Farrington algorithm and the generalised likelihood ratio-based procedure for negative binomial counts. To evaluate these algorithms' performance in detecting outbreaks earlier than the standard surveillance, confirmed outbreaks, defined according to the weekly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, were used as reference. Performances were assessed separately for the first and second semester of the year. Proxies positively impacting performance were identified.ResultsWe estimated that 70% of outbreaks could be detected early using the proposed approach, with a corresponding false positive rate of ca 20%. Performance did not substantially differ either between algorithms or semesters. The best proxies included emergency calls for respiratory or infectious disease causes and emergency room visits.ConclusionImplementing HCU-based monitoring systems in small areas deserves further investigations as it could facilitate the containment of COVID-19 and other unknown infectious diseases in the future.

Imaging-based representation and stratification of intra-tumor heterogeneity via tree-edit distance.

Personalized medicine is the future of medical practice. In oncology, tumor heterogeneity assessment represents a pivotal step for effective treatment planning and prognosis prediction. Despite new procedures for DNA sequencing and analysis, non-invasive methods for tumor characterization are needed to impact on daily routine. On purpose, imaging texture analysis is rapidly scaling, holding the promise to surrogate histopathological assessment of tumor lesions. In this work, we propose a tree-based representation strategy for describing intra-tumor heterogeneity of patients affected by metastatic cancer. We leverage radiomics information extracted from PET/CT imaging and we provide an exhaustive and easily readable summary of the disease spreading. We exploit this novel patient representation to perform cancer subtyping according to hierarchical clustering technique. To this purpose, a new heterogeneity-based distance between trees is defined and applied to a case study of prostate cancer. Clusters interpretation is explored in terms of concordance with severity status, tumor burden and biological characteristics. Results are promising, as the proposed method outperforms current literature approaches. Ultimately, the proposed method draws a general analysis framework that would allow to extract knowledge from daily acquired imaging data of patients and provide insights for effective treatment planning.

A Deep Survival EWAS approach estimating risk profile based on pre-diagnostic DNA methylation: An application to breast cancer time to diagnosis.

Previous studies for cancer biomarker discovery based on pre-diagnostic blood DNA methylation (DNAm) profiles, either ignore the explicit modeling of the Time To Diagnosis (TTD), or provide inconsistent results. This lack of consistency is likely due to the limitations of standard EWAS approaches, that model the effect of DNAm at CpG sites on TTD independently. In this work, we aim to identify blood DNAm profiles associated with TTD, with the aim to improve the reliability of the results, as well as their biological meaningfulness. We argue that a global approach to estimate CpG sites effect profile should capture the complex (potentially non-linear) relationships interplaying between sites. To prove our concept, we develop a new Deep Learning-based approach assessing the relevance of individual CpG Islands (i.e., assigning a weight to each site) in determining TTD while modeling their combined effect in a survival analysis scenario. The algorithm combines a tailored sampling procedure with DNAm sites agglomeration, deep non-linear survival modeling and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values estimation to aid robustness of the derived effects profile. The proposed approach deals with the common complexities arising from epidemiological studies, such as small sample size, noise, and low signal-to-noise ratio of blood-derived DNAm. We apply our approach to a prospective case-control study on breast cancer nested in the EPIC Italy cohort and we perform weighted gene-set enrichment analyses to demonstrate the biological meaningfulness of the obtained results. We compared the results of Deep Survival EWAS with those of a traditional EWAS approach, demonstrating that our method performs better than the standard approach in identifying biologically relevant pathways.

A blood DNA methylation biomarker for predicting short-term risk of cardiovascular events.

BACKGROUND: Recent evidence highlights the epidemiological value of blood DNA methylation (DNAm) as surrogate biomarker for exposure to risk factors for non-communicable diseases (NCD). DNAm surrogate of exposures predicts diseases and longevity better than self-reported or measured exposures in many cases. Consequently, disease prediction models based on blood DNAm surrogates may outperform current state-of-the-art prediction models. This study aims to develop novel DNAm surrogates for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) risk factors and develop a composite biomarker predictive of CVD risk. We compared the prediction performance of our newly developed risk score with the state-of-the-art DNAm risk scores for cardiovascular diseases, the 'next-generation' epigenetic clock DNAmGrimAge, and the prediction model based on traditional risk factors SCORE2. RESULTS: Using data from the EPIC Italy cohort, we derived novel DNAm surrogates for BMI, blood pressure, fasting glucose and insulin, cholesterol, triglycerides, and coagulation biomarkers. We validated them in four independent data sets from Europe and the USA. Further, we derived a DNAmCVDscore predictive of the time-to-CVD event as a combination of several DNAm surrogates. ROC curve analyses show that DNAmCVDscore outperforms previously developed DNAm scores for CVD risk and SCORE2 for short-term CVD risk. Interestingly, the performance of DNAmGrimAge and DNAmCVDscore was comparable (slightly lower for DNAmGrimAge, although the differences were not statistically significant). CONCLUSIONS: We described novel DNAm surrogates for CVD risk factors useful for future molecular epidemiology research, and we described a blood DNAm-based composite biomarker, DNAmCVDscore, predictive of short-term cardiovascular events. Our results highlight the usefulness of DNAm surrogate biomarkers of risk factors in epigenetic epidemiology to identify high-risk populations. In addition, we provide further evidence on the effectiveness of prediction models based on DNAm surrogates and discuss methodological aspects for further improvements. Finally, our results encourage testing this approach for other NCD diseases by training and developing DNAm surrogates for disease-specific risk factors and exposures.

PET/CT-based radiomics of mass-forming intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma improves prediction of pathology data and survival.

PURPOSE: Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (IHC) is an aggressive disease with few reliable preoperative biomarkers. This study aims to elucidate if radiomics extracted from preoperative [18F]FDG PET/CT may grant a non-invasive biological characterization of IHC and predict outcome after complete resection of the tumor. METHODS: All patients preoperatively imaged by [18F]FDG PET/CT who underwent hepatectomy for mass-forming IHC in the period 2010-2019 were retrospectively evaluated. On PET images, manual slice-by-slice segmentation of IHC was performed (Tumor-VOI). A 5-mm margin region was semi-automatically generated around the tumor (Margin-VOI). Textural analysis was performed using the LifeX software. Analyzed outcomes included tumor grading (G3 vs. G1-2), microvascular invasion (MVI), overall survival (OS), and progression-free survival (PFS). The performances of the combined clinical-radiomic models were compared with those of standard clinical models. RESULTS: Overall, 74 patients (40 females, median age 68 years) were included. Considering tumor grading and MVI, the models combining the clinical data and radiomics of the Tumor-VOI had better performances than the clinical ones (AUC = 0.78 vs. 0.72 for grading; 0.87 vs. 0.78 for MVI). The inclusion into the models of radiomics of the Margin-VOI further improved the prediction of grading (AUC = 0.83), but not of MVI. Considering OS and PFS, the models including the preoperative clinical data and radiomics of the Tumor-VOI and Margin-VOI had better performances than the pure clinical ones (C-index = 0.81 vs. 0.76 for OS; 0.81 vs. 0.72 for PFS) and similar to the models including the pathology and postoperative data (C-index = 0.81 for OS; 0.79 for PFS). No model retained the standard SUV measures. CONCLUSION: The PET-based radiomics of IHC can predict pathology data and allow a reliable preoperative evaluation of prognosis. The radiomics of both the tumoral and peritumoral areas had clinical relevance. The combined clinical-radiomic models outperformed the pure preoperative clinical ones and achieved performances non-inferior to the postoperative models.

Oligoscore: a clinical score to predict overall survival in patients with oligometastatic disease treated with stereotactic body radiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: to find clinical features that can predict prognosis in patients with oligometastatic disease treated with stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT). MATERIAL AND METHODS: Patients with less than 5 metastases in less than 3 different body sites were included in the analysis. Various clinical and treatment parameters were analyzed to create a Cox proportional hazard model for Overall Survival (OS). Subsequently, significant variables were used to create a score. RESULTS: 997 patients were analyzed. Median OS was 2.61 years, 1 and 3 years OS was respectively 85% and 43%. Location of the primary tumor, performance status, site of irradiated metastases, presence of extratarget non irradiated lesions and RT dose were significant prognostic factors for OS. These parameters were used to create a score and to distinguish three different classes, with median OS of 5.67 years in low risk, 2.47 years in intermediate risk and 1.82 years in high risk group. CONCLUSION: moving from easily accessible clinical parameters, a score was created to help the physician's decision about the better treatment or combination of treatments for the individual patient.