Development of interpretable machine learning models to predict in-hospital prognosis of acute heart failure patients.

AIMS: In recent years, there has been remarkable development in machine learning (ML) models, showing a trend towards high prediction performance. ML models with high prediction performance often become structurally complex and are frequently perceived as black boxes, hindering intuitive interpretation of the prediction results. We aimed to develop ML models with high prediction performance, interpretability, and superior risk stratification to predict in-hospital mortality and worsening heart failure (WHF) in patients with acute heart failure (AHF). METHODS AND RESULTS: Based on the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, which enrolled 4056 patients with AHF, we developed prediction models for in-hospital mortality and WHF using information obtained on the first day of admission (demographics, physical examination, blood test results, etc.). After excluding 16 patients who died on the first or second day of admission, the original dataset (n = 4040) was split 4:1 into training (n = 3232) and test datasets (n = 808). Based on the training dataset, we developed three types of prediction models: (i) the classification and regression trees (CART) model; (ii) the random forest (RF) model; and (iii) the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model. The performance of each model was evaluated using the test dataset, based on metrics including sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Brier score, and calibration slope. For the complex structure of the XGBoost model, we performed SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis, classifying patients into interpretable clusters. In the original dataset, the proportion of females was 44.8% (1809/4040), and the average age was 77.9 ± 12.0. The in-hospital mortality rate was 6.3% (255/4040) and the WHF rate was 22.3% (900/4040) in the total study population. In the in-hospital mortality prediction, the AUC for the XGBoost model was 0.816 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.815-0.818], surpassing the AUC values for the CART model (0.683, 95% CI: 0.680-0.685) and the RF model (0.755, 95% CI: 0.753-0.757). Similarly, in the WHF prediction, the AUC for the XGBoost model was 0.766 (95% CI: 0.765-0.768), outperforming the AUC values for the CART model (0.688, 95% CI: 0.686-0.689) and the RF model (0.713, 95% CI: 0.711-0.714). In the XGBoost model, interpretable clusters were formed, and the rates of in-hospital mortality and WHF were similar among each cluster in both the training and test datasets. CONCLUSIONS: The XGBoost models with SHAP analysis provide high prediction performance, interpretability, and reproducible risk stratification for in-hospital mortality and WHF for patients with AHF.

Validation of a Supportive and Palliative Care Indicator Tool Among Patients Hospitalized Due to Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Palliative care, including symptom alleviation and advance-care planning, is relevant for patients with heart failure (HF). The Supportive and Palliative Care Indicator Tool (SPICT) is a tool for identifying patients who may benefit from palliative-care assistance but has not been validated in patients hospitalized due to HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Clinical backgrounds, symptom burdens and outcomes were evaluated using the SPICT as assessed on admission in consecutive hospitalized patients with HF. SPICT-positive was defined when 2 or more general indicators and a New York Heart Association class ≥ III were present. Of 601 patients hospitalized due to HF (mean age: 79 ± 12 years; male, 314 [52%]; and mean left ventricular ejection fraction: 44 ± 18%), 100 (17%) patients were SPICT-positive. SPICT-positive patients were older (85 ± 9 vs 78 ± 12 years; P < 0.001) and had higher clinical frailty scales (6 ± 1 vs 4 ± 1 points; P < 0.001), whereas symptom burdens assessed by the Integrated Palliative care Outcome Scale were not different (17 [13, 28] vs 20 [11, 26] points; P = 0.97) when compared with patients who were SPICT-negative. During the median follow-up period of 518 days, 178 patients (30%) died. Being SPICT-positive was independently associated with higher all-cause mortality (hazard ratio: 3.49, 95% confidence interval: 2.41-5.05; P < 0.001) after adjusting for age, sex, New York Heart Association class IV, Get-With-The-Guideline risk score, N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide levels, and left ventricular ejection fractions. CONCLUSIONS: In patients admitted for HF, being SPICT-positive was significantly associated with higher all-cause mortality rates, suggesting the utility of the SPICT as an indicator to initiate advance-care planning for end-of-life care among patients hospitalized due to HF.

Association of left atrial enlargement with heart failure events in non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction.

Aims: Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risk of heart failure (HF); however, little is known regarding the risk stratification for incident HF in AF patients, especially with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Methods and results: The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of AF patients. From the registry, 3002 non-valvular AF patients with preserved LVEF and with the data of antero-posterior left atrial diameter (LAD) at enrolment were investigated. Patients were stratified by LAD (<40, 40-44, 45-49, and ≥50 mm) with backgrounds and HF hospitalization incidences compared between groups. Of 3002 patients [mean age, 73.5 ± 10.7 years; women, 1226 (41%); paroxysmal AF, 1579 (53%); and mean CHA2DS2-VASc score, 3.3 ± 1.7], the mean LAD was 43 ± 8 mm. Patients with larger LAD were older and less often paroxysmal AF, with a higher CHA2DS2-VASc score (all P < 0.001). Heart failure hospitalization occurred in 412 patients during the median follow-up period of 6.0 years. Larger LAD was independently associated with a higher HF hospitalization risk [LAD ≥ 50 mm: hazard ratio (HR), 2.36; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.75-3.18; LAD 45-49 mm: HR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.37-2.46; and LAD 40-44 mm: HR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.01-1.78, compared with LAD < 40 mm) after adjustment by age, sex, AF type, and CHA2DS2-VASc score. These results were also consistent across major subgroups, showing no significant interaction. Conclusion: Left atrial diameter is significantly associated with the risk of incident HF in AF patients with preserved LVEF, suggesting the utility of LAD regarding HF risk stratification for these patients.

Prospective Multicenter Registry-Based Study on Thyroid Storm: The Guidelines for the Management from Japan are Useful.

CONTEXT: The mortality rate in thyroid storm (TS) has been reported to be higher than 10%. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of the 2016 guidelines for the management of TS proposed by the Japan Thyroid Association and Japan Endocrine Society. DESIGN: Prospective registry-based study through a secure web platform. SETTING: Prospective multicenter registry. PATIENTS AND MEASUREMENTS: Patients with new-onset TS were registered in the Research Electronic Data Capture (REDCap). On day 30 after admission, clinical information and prognosis of each patient were added to the platform. On day 180, the prognosis was described. RESULTS: This study included 110 patients with TS. The median of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score was 13, higher than the score in the previous nationwide epidemiological study, 10 (p = 0.001). Nonetheless, the mortality rate at day 30 was 5.5%, approximately half compared with 10.7% in the previous nationwide survey. Lower body mass index, shock and lower left ventricular ejection fraction were positively associated with poor prognosis at day 30, while the lack of fever ≥ 38℃ was related to the outcome. The mortality rate in patients with an APACHE II score ≥12 for whom the guidelines were not followed was significantly higher than the rate in patients for whom the guidelines were followed (50% vs. 4.7%) (p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Prognosis seemed better than in the previous nationwide survey, even though disease severity was higher. The mortality rate was lower when the guidelines were followed. Thus, the guidelines are useful for managing TS.

Atrial fibrillation type and long-term clinical outcomes in hospitalized patients with heart failure: insight from JROADHF.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) type (paroxysmal, persistent, or permanent) is important in determining therapeutic management; however, clinical outcomes by AF type are largely unknown for hospitalized patients with heart failure (HF). METHODS AND RESULTS: The Japanese Registry Of Acute Decompensated Heart Failure is a retrospective, multicenter, and nationwide registry of patients hospitalized for acute HF in Japan. Follow-up data were collected up to 5 years after hospitalization. Patients were divided based on diagnosis and AF type into 3 groups [without AF, paroxysmal AF, and sustained AF (defined as a composite of persistent and permanent AF)], and compared the backgrounds and outcomes between the groups. Of 12 895 hospitalized HF patients [mean age: 78 ± 13 years, female: 6077 (47%), and mean left ventricular ejection fraction: 47 ± 17%], 1725 had paroxysmal AF, and 3672 had sustained AF. Compared with patients without AF, sustained AF had a higher risk of the primary composite endpoint of cardiovascular (CV) death or HF hospitalization [hazard ratio (HR): 1.09, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-1.17; P = 0.03], mainly driven by HF hospitalization [HR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.06-1.26; P < 0.001], whereas the corresponding risk for the primary endpoint in patients with paroxysmal AF was not elevated (HR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.94-1.13; P = 0.53) after adjustment by multivariable Cox regression analysis. These results were consistent among the subgroups of patients with reduced or preserved ejection fraction (interaction P = 0.74). CONCLUSION: Among hospitalized patients with HF, sustained AF, but not paroxysmal AF, was significantly associated with a higher risk for CV death or HF hospitalization, indicating the importance of accounting for AF type in HF patients.

Effectiveness and safety of morphine administration for refractory dyspnoea among hospitalised patients with advanced heart failure: the Morphine-HF study.

OBJECTIVES: Morphine is effective in alleviating dyspnoea in patients with cancer. We aimed to investigate the effectiveness and safety of morphine administration for refractory dyspnoea in patients with advanced heart failure (HF). METHODS: We conducted a multicentre, prospective, observational study of hospitalised patients with advanced HF in whom morphine was administered for refractory dyspnoea. Morphine effectiveness was evaluated by dyspnoea intensity changes, assessed regularly by both a quantitative subjective scale (Visual Analogue Scale (VAS; graded from 0 to 100 mm)) and an objective scale (Support Team Assessment Schedule-Japanese (STAS-J; graded from 0 to 4 points)). Safety was assessed by vital sign changes and new-onset severe adverse events, including nausea, vomiting, constipation and delirium based on the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events. RESULTS: From 15 Japanese institutions between September 2020 and August 2022, we included 28 hospitalised patients with advanced HF in whom morphine was administered (mean age: 83.8±8.7 years, male: 15 (54%), New York Heart Association class IV: 26 (93%) and mean left ventricular ejection fraction: 38%±19%). Both VAS and STAS-J significantly improved from baseline to day 1 (VAS: 67±26 to 50±31 mm; p=0.02 and STAS-J: 3.3±0.8 to 2.6±1.1 points; p=0.006, respectively), and thereafter the improvements sustained through to day 7. After morphine administration, vital signs including blood pressure, pulse rate and oxygen saturation did not change, and no new-onset severe adverse events occurred through to day 7. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggested acceptable effectiveness and safety for morphine administration in treating refractory dyspnoea in hospitalised patients with advanced HF.

The characteristics and outcomes in patients with acute heart failure who used tolvaptan: from KCHF registry.

AIMS: The use of tolvaptan is increasing in clinical practice in Japan. However, the characteristics of patients who used tolvaptan and the timing of its use in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) are not fully elucidated. METHODS AND RESULTS: Among consecutive 4056 patients in the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, we analysed 3802 patients after excluding patients on dialysis, prior or unknown tolvaptan use at admission, and unknown timing of tolvaptan use, and we divided them into two groups: tolvaptan use (N = 773) and no tolvaptan use (N = 3029). The prevalence of tolvaptan use varied widely from 48.7% to 0% across the participating centres. Factors independently associated with tolvaptan use were diabetes, poor medical adherence, oedema, pleural effusion, hyponatraemia, estimated glomerular filtration rate < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 , moderate/severe tricuspid regurgitation, dobutamine infusion within 24 h, and additional inotropes infusion beyond 24 h after admission. The mortality rate at 90 days after admission was significantly higher in the tolvaptan use group than in the no tolvaptan use group (14.3% vs. 8.6%, P = 0.049). However, after adjustment, the excess mortality risk of tolvaptan use relative to no tolvaptan use was no longer significant (hazard ratio = 1.53, 95% confidence interval = 0.77-3.02, P = 0.22). Patients with tolvaptan use had a longer hospital stay [median (interquartile range): 22 (15-34) days vs. 15 (11-21) days, P < 0.0001] and a higher prevalence of worsening renal failure (47.0% vs. 31.8%, P < 0.0001) and worsening heart failure (24.8% vs. 14.4%, P < 0.0001) than those without. CONCLUSIONS: AHF patients with tolvaptan use had more congestive status with poorer in-hospital outcomes and higher short-term mortality than those without tolvaptan use. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02334891 (NCT02334891) and https://upload.umin.ac.jp/cgi-open-bin/ctr_e/ctr_view.cgi?recptno=R000017241 (UMIN000015238).

Utility of left ventricular ejection fraction in atrial fibrillation patients without pre-existing heart failure.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risk of heart failure (HF); however, little focus has been placed on the prevention of HF in patients with AF. Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is an established echocardiographic parameter in HF patients. We sought to investigate the association of LVEF with HF events in AF patients without pre-existing HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of AF patients in Fushimi-ku, Japan. In this analysis, we excluded patients with pre-existing HF (defined as having one of the following: prior HF hospitalization, New York Heart Association class ≥ 2 in association with heart disease, or LVEF < 40%). Among 3233 AF patients without pre-existing HF, we investigated 2459 patients with the data of LVEF at enrolment. We divided the patients into three groups stratified by LVEF [mildly reduced LVEF (40-49%), below normal LVEF (50-59%), and normal LVEF (≥60%)] and compared the backgrounds and incidence of HF hospitalization between the groups. Of 2459 patients [mean age: 72.4 ± 10.5 years, female: 917 (37%), paroxysmal AF: 1405 (57%), and mean CHA2 DS2 -VASc score: 3.0 ± 1.6], the mean LVEF was 66 ± 8% [mildly reduced LVEF: 114 patients (5%), below normal LVEF: 300 patients (12%), and normal LVEF: 2045 patients (83%)]. Patients with lower LVEF demonstrated lower prevalence of female and paroxysmal AF (both P < 0.01), but age and CHA2 DS2 -VASc score were comparable between the three groups (both P > 0.05). During the median follow-up period of 6.0 years, 255 patients (10%) were hospitalized for HF (annual incidence: 1.9% per person-year). Multivariable Cox regression analysis demonstrated that lower LVEF strata were independently associated with the risk of HF [mildly reduced LVEF (40-49%): hazard ratio = 2.98, 95% confidence interval = 1.99-4.45 and below normal LVEF (50-59%): hazard ratio = 2.01, 95% confidence interval = 1.44-2.82, compared with normal LVEF (≥60%)] after adjustment by age, sex, type of AF, and CHA2 DS2 -VASc score. LVEF < 60% was significantly associated with the higher risk of HF hospitalization across all major subgroups without significant interaction (P for interaction; all P > 0.05). LVEF had an independent and incremental prognostic value for HF hospitalization in addition to natriuretic peptide levels in AF patients without pre-existing HF. CONCLUSIONS: Lower LVEF was significantly associated with the higher incidence of HF hospitalization in AF patients without pre-existing HF, leading to the future risk stratification for and prevention of incident HF in AF patients.

Weight loss during follow-up in patients with acute heart failure: From the KCHF registry.

BACKGROUNDS: The prognostic implication of weight loss after discharge from acute heart failure (AHF) remains unclear. We sought to investigate the association of weight loss between discharge and 6-month visit with subsequent clinical outcomes in patients with AHF. METHODS: We analyzed 686 patients with AHF in the prospective longitudinal follow-up study derived from the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, and divided them into 2 groups based on the weight loss at 6-month index visit. We defined the weight loss as ≥ 5% decrease in body weight from discharge to 6-month index visit. RESULTS: There were 90 patients (13.1%) with a weight loss at 6-month visit. Patients in the weight loss group compared with those in the no weight loss group had higher body weight at discharge and lower body weight at 6-mont visit. Patients in the weight loss group had a lower systolic blood pressure, higher brain-type natriuretic peptide, lower serum albumin, lower hemoglobin, higher prevalence of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction at 6-month visit, and a lower prescription rate of inhibitors of renin-angiotensin system than those in the no weight loss group. The cumulative 6-month incidence of all-cause death was significantly higher in the weight loss group than in the no weight loss group (14.2% and 4.3%, log-rank P<0.001). The excess adjusted risk of the weight loss group relative to the no weight loss group remained significant for all-cause death (HR 2.39, 95%CI 1.01-5.65, P = 0.048). CONCLUSION: Body weight loss of ≥5% at 6-month visit after discharge was associated with subsequent all-cause death in patients with AHF.

Association between changes in loop diuretic dose and outcomes in acute heart failure.

AIMS: Little is known about the association between the starting of or dose changes in loop diuretics during acute heart failure (AHF) hospitalization and post-discharge outcomes. We investigated the clinical impact of starting loop diuretics and changing the loop diuretics dose during hospitalization on post-discharge outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: From the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, 3665 consecutive patients hospitalized for HF and discharged alive were included in this study. We analysed 1906 patients without loop diuretics on admission and were discharged alive and 1759 patients who received loop diuretics on admission and were discharged alive. The primary outcome measure was all-cause death. Of the 1906 patients without loop diuretics on admission, 1366 (71.7%) patients started loop diuretics during the index AHF hospitalization. Starting loop diuretics was not associated with lower post-discharge mortality [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68-1.25]. Of the 1759 patients who received loop diuretics on admission, loop diuretic dose was decreased in 23.8%, unchanged in 44.6%, and increased in 31.6% of the patients. Changes in the dose at discharge compared with no change in dose were not associated with lower risk of post-discharge mortality (decrease relative to no change: adjusted HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.76-1.28; increase relative to no change: adjusted HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.78-1.27). Compared with no loop diuretics at discharge, a loop diuretics dose of ≥80 mg at discharge was associated with higher post-discharge mortality risk. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with AHF, we found no association between the starting of loop diuretics and post-discharge outcomes and between dose changes and post-discharge outcomes.

Tricuspid regurgitation in elderly patients with acute heart failure: insights from the KCHF registry.

AIMS: Several studies demonstrated that tricuspid regurgitation (TR) is associated with poor clinical outcomes. However, data on patients with TR who experienced acute heart failure (AHF) remains scarce. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the association between TR and clinical outcomes in patients admitted with AHF, using a large-scale Japanese AHF registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: The current study population consisted of 3735 hospitalized patients due to AHF in the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure (KCHF) registry. TR grades were assessed according to the routine clinical practice at each participating centre. We compared the baseline characteristics and outcomes according to the severity of TR. The primary outcome was all-cause death. The secondary outcome was hospitalization for heart failure (HF). The median age of the entire study population was 80 (interquartile range: 72-86) years. One thousand two hundred five patients (32.3%) had no TR, while mild, moderate, and severe TR was found in 1537 patients (41.2%), 776 patients (20.8%), and 217 patients (5.8%), respectively. Pulmonary hypertension, significant mitral regurgitation, and atrial fibrillation/flutter were strongly associated with the development of moderate/severe of TR, while left ventricular ejection fraction <50% was inversely associated with it. Among 993 patients with moderate/severe TR, the number of patients who underwent surgical intervention for TR within 1 year was only 13 (1.3%). The median follow-up duration was 475 (interquartile range: 365-653) days with 94.0% follow-up at 1 year. As the TR severity increased, the cumulative 1 year incidence of all-cause death and HF admission proportionally increased ([14.8%, 20.3%, 23.4%, 27.0%] and [18.9%, 23.0%, 28.5%, 28.4%] in no, mild, moderate, and severe TR, respectively). Compared with no TR, the adjusted risks of patients with mild, moderate, and severe TR were significant for all-cause death (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.20 [1.00-1.43], P = 0.0498, 1.32 [1.07-1.62], P = 0.009, and 1.35 [1.00-1.83], P = 0.049, respectively), while those were not significant for hospitalization for HF (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.16 [0.97-1.38], P = 0.10, 1.19 [0.96-1.46], P = 0.11, and 1.20 [0.87-1.65], P = 0.27, respectively). The higher adjusted HRs of all the TR grades relative to no TR were significant for all-cause death in patients aged <80 years, but not in patients aged ≥80 years with significant interaction. CONCLUSIONS: In a large Japanese AHF population, the grades of TR could successfully stratify the risk of all-cause death. However, the association of TR with mortality was only modest and attenuated in patients aged 80 or more. Further research is warranted to evaluate how to follow up and manage TR in this elderly population.

Proteinuria is independently associated with heart failure events in patients with atrial fibrillation: the Fushimi AF registry.

AIMS: Previous studies have shown that proteinuria is independently associated with the incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF), and is also associated with the incidence of cardiovascular events such as stroke and thromboembolism in patients with AF. However, the association of proteinuria with heart failure (HF) events in patients with AF remains unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective study of patients with AF. Of the entire cohort of 4489 patients, 2164 patients had available data of proteinuria. We compared the clinical background and outcomes between patients with proteinuria (n = 606, 28.0%) and those without (n = 1558, 72.0%). Patients with proteinuria were older and had a higher prevalence of major co-morbidities. During the median follow-up of 5.0 years, the incidence rates of HF events (composite of cardiac death or HF hospitalization) were higher in patients with proteinuria than those without (4.1% vs. 2.1% person-year, P < 0.01). Multivariate analyses revealed that proteinuria was an independent risk factor of the incidence of HF events [adjusted hazard ratio (HR): 1.40, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.13-1.74]. This association was consistent among the various subgroups, except for the age subgroup in which there was a significant interaction (P < 0.01) between younger (<75 years) (unadjusted HR: 3.03, 95% CI: 2.12-4.34) and older (≥75 years) patients (unadjusted HR: 1.59, 95% CI: 1.23-2.05). CONCLUSION: Our community-based large prospective cohort suggests that proteinuria is independently associated with the incidence of HF events in Japanese patients with AF.

Prognostic Value of the Severity of Clinical Congestion in Patients Hospitalized for Decompensated Heart Failure: Findings From the Japanese KCHF Registry.

BACKGROUND: Congestion is a leading cause of hospitalization and a major therapeutic target in patients with heart failure (HF). Clinical practice in Japan is characterized by a long hospital stay, which facilitates more extensive decongestion during hospitalization. We herein examined the time course and prognostic impact of clinical congestion in a large contemporary Japanese cohort of HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Peripheral edema, jugular venous pressure, and orthopnea were graded on a standardized 4-point scale (0-3) in 3787 hospitalized patients in a Japanese cohort of HF. Composite Congestion Scores (CCS) on admission and at discharge were calculated by summing individual scores. The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause death or HF hospitalization. The median admission CCS was 4 (interquartile range, 3-6). Overall, 255 patients died during the median hospitalization length of 16 days, and 1395 died or were hospitalized for HF over a median postdischarge follow-up of 396 days. The cumulative 1-year incidence of the primary outcome increased at higher tertiles of congestion on admission (32.5%, 39.3%, and 41.0% in the mild [CCS ≤3], moderate [CCS = 4 or 5], and severe [CCS ≥6] congestion groups, respectively, log-rank P < .001). The adjusted hazard ratios of moderate and severe congestion relative to mild congestion were 1.205 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.065-1.365; P = .003) and 1.247 (95% CI, 1.103-1.410; P < .001), respectively. Among 3445 patients discharged alive, 85% had CCS of 0 (complete decongestion) and 15% had a CCS of 1 or more (residual congestion) at discharge. Although residual congestion predicted a risk of postdischarge death or HF hospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.314 [1.145-1.509]; P < .001), the admission CCS correlated with the risk of postdischarge death or HF hospitalization, even in the complete decongestion group. No correlation was observed for postdischarge death or HF hospitalization between residual congestion at discharge and admission CCS (P for the interaction = .316). CONCLUSIONS: In total, 85% of patients were discharged with complete decongestion in Japanese clinical practice. Clinical congestion, on admission and at discharge, was of prognostic value. The severity of congestion on admission was predictive of adverse outcomes, even in the absence of residual congestion. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02334891 (NCT02334891) https://upload.umin.ac.jp/cgi-open-bin/ctr_e/ctr_view.cgi?recptno=R000017241 (UMIN000015238).

Multisystem inflammatory syndrome and lymphohistiocytic myocarditis after Covid-19 vaccine in a middle-aged woman.

We describe a 51-year-old otherwise healthy woman hospitalized for hypotension, fever, and weakness 4 days after the second-dose Covid-19 mRNA vaccine. Elevated inflammatory markers, natriuretic peptide levels and troponin levels, and slightly reduced left ventricular ejection fraction of 50% were noted. We also found the multiple organ damage, including mucocutaneous, gastrointestinal, and neurologic systems. In addition, we revealed the positive results for anti-nucleocapsid SARS-CoV-2 IgG, albeit negative for SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction testing, suggesting the prior asymptomatic Covid-19 infection. We finally diagnosed her as multisystem inflammatory syndrome after vaccination. Of note, we obtained myocardial specimen from the patients and demonstrated the lymphohistiocytic myocarditis, which is a rare form of myocarditis.

Association of intravenous heparin administration with in-hospital clinical outcomes among hospitalized patients with acute heart failure.

BACKGROUNDS: Patients with acute heart failure (AHF) possess a high risk for thromboembolism, and thromboembolism prophylaxis using heparin has been recommended by the guidelines. METHODS: Among 4056 patients enrolled in the KCHF Registry, the current study population consisted of 2525 patients after excluding patients with acute coronary syndrome and oral anticoagulants on admission and those with mechanical circulatory supports. There were 789 patients (31%) with heparin administration within 24 h after admission, and 1736 patients (69%) without. RESULTS: The baseline characteristics included mean age: 78 ± 13 years, New York Heart Association class IV: 51%, ischemic etiology: 30%, atrial fibrillation: 31% and mean left ventricular ejection fraction: 45%. During median hospitalization length of 16 days, 161 patients had all-cause death, 34 patients developed ischemic stroke, and 48 patients developed major bleeding. Multivariable logistic regression analyses demonstrated that heparin administration compared with no heparin administration was not associated with a lower risk for all-cause death (OR: 1.39, 95%CI: 0.90-2.15; P = 0.14), nor for ischemic stroke (OR: 1.14, 95%CI: 0.53-2.43; P = 0.74), but was associated with a higher risk for major bleeding (OR: 2.88, 95%CI: 1.54-5.41; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with AHF, heparin administration within 24 h after admission was not associated with a lower risk of all-cause death and ischemic stroke, but was associated with a higher risk of major bleeding during hospitalization. Our study raises questions about the routine use of heparin for thromboembolism prophylaxis in hospitalized patients with AHF. Further studies are warranted to address the utility of anticoagulant therapy in these patients.

A comparison between hospital follow-up and collaborative follow-up in patients with acute heart failure.

AIMS: There are no previous studies focusing on collaborative follow-ups between hospitals and clinics for patients discharged after acute heart failure (AHF) in Japan. The purpose of this study was to determine the status of collaboration between hospitals and clinics for patients with AHF in Japan and to compare patient characteristics and clinical outcomes using a large Japanese observational database. METHODS AND RESULTS: Of 4056 consecutive patients hospitalized for AHF in the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, we analysed 2862 patients discharged to go home, who were divided into 1674 patients (58.5%) followed up at hospitals with index hospitalization (hospital follow-up group) and 1188 (41.5%) followed up in a collaborative fashion with clinics or other general hospitals (collaborative follow-up group). The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause death or heart failure (HF) hospitalization within 1 year after discharge. Previous hospitalization for HF and length of hospital stay longer than 15 days were associated with hospital follow-up. Conversely, ≥80 years of age, hypertension, and cognitive dysfunction were associated with collaborative follow-up. The cumulative 1-year incidence of the primary outcome, all cause death, and cardiovascular death were similar between the hospital and collaborative follow-up groups (31.6% vs. 29.6%, P = 0.51, 13.1% vs, 13.9%, P = 0.35, 8.4% vs. 8.2%, P = 0.96). Even after adjusting for confounders, the difference in risk for patients in the hospital follow-up group relative to those in the collaborative follow-up group remained insignificant for the primary outcome, all-cause death, and cardiovascular death (HR: 1.11, 95% CI: 0.97-1.27, P = 0.14, HR: 1.10, 95% CI: 0.91-1.33, P = 0.33, HR: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.87-1.05, P = 0.33). The cumulative 1-year incidence of HF hospitalization was higher in the hospital follow-up group than in the collaborative follow-up group (25.5% vs. 21.3%, P = 0.02). The risk of HF hospitalization was higher in the hospital follow-up group than in the collaborative follow-up group (HR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.01-1.39, P = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: In patients hospitalized for AHF, 41.5% received collaborative follow-up after discharge. The risk of HF hospitalization was higher in the hospital follow-up group than in the collaborative follow-up, although risk of the primary outcome, all-cause death, and cardiovascular death were similar between groups.

Machine Learning Risk Prediction for Incident Heart Failure in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation.

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risk of heart failure (HF); however, little focus is placed on the risk stratification for, and prevention of, incident HF in patients with AF. Objectives: This study aimed to construct and validate a machine learning (ML) prediction model for HF hospitalization in patients with AF. Methods: The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of patients with AF in Fushimi-ku, Kyoto, Japan. We divided the data set of the registry into derivation (n = 2,383) and validation (n = 2,011) cohorts. An ML model was built to predict the incidence of HF hospitalization using the derivation cohort, and predictive ability was examined using the validation cohort. Results: HF hospitalization occurred in 606 patients (14%) during a median follow-up period of 4.4 years in the entire registry. Data of transthoracic echocardiography and biomarkers were frequently nominated as important predictive variables across all 6 ML models. The ML model based on a random forest algorithm using 7 variables (age, history of HF, creatinine clearance, cardiothoracic ratio on x-ray, left ventricular [LV] ejection fraction, LV end-systolic diameter, and LV asynergy) had high prediction performance (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUC]: 0.75) and was significantly superior to the Framingham HF risk model (AUC: 0.67; P < 0.001). Based on Kaplan-Meier curves, the ML model could stratify the risk of HF hospitalization during the follow-up period (log-rank; P < 0.001). Conclusions: The ML model revealed important predictors and helped us to stratify the risk of HF, providing opportunities for the prevention of HF in patients with AF.