External Validation of the Japanese Clinical Score for Mortality Prediction in Patients With Acute Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: To predict mortality in patients with acute heart failure (AHF), we created and validated an internal clinical risk score, the KICKOFF score, which takes physical and social aspects, in addition to clinical aspects, into account. In this study, we validated the prediction model externally in a different geographic area.Methods and Results: There were 2 prospective multicenter cohorts (1,117 patients in Osaka Prefecture [KICKOFF registry]; 737 patients in Kochi Prefecture [Kochi YOSACOI study]) that had complete datasets for calculation of the KICKOFF score, which was developed by machine learning incorporating physical and social factors. The outcome measure was all-cause death over a 2-year period. Patients were separated into 3 groups: low risk (scores 0-6), moderate risk (scores 7-11), and high risk (scores 12-19). Kaplan-Meier curves clearly showed the score's propensity to predict all-cause death, which rose independently in higher-risk groups (P<0.001) in both cohorts. After 2 years, the cumulative incidence of all-cause death was similar in the KICKOFF registry and Kochi YOSACOI study for the low-risk (4.4% vs. 5.3%, respectively), moderate-risk (25.3% vs. 22.3%, respectively), and high-risk (68.1% vs. 58.5%, respectively) groups. CONCLUSIONS: The unique prediction score may be used in different geographic areas in Japan. The score may help doctors estimate the risk of AHF mortality, and provide information for decisions regarding heart failure treatment.

Gap in the prognostic impact of short physical performance battery among phenotypes of heart failure.

BACKGROUND: The Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) has been reported to predict clinical outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF). However, whether the discriminative capacity of SPPB score for adverse outcomes varies according to the phenotypes of HF, such as HF with reduced, mid-range, and preserved left-ventricular ejection fraction (HFrEF, HFmrEF, and HFpEF) remains unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate the difference in discriminative capacity of SPPB score for predicting 2-year mortality among phenotypes of HF. METHODS: We consecutively enrolled 542 adult patients admitted for HF (HFrEF, n = 187; HFmrEF, n = 94; HFpEF, n = 261). The patients underwent SPPB score when discharged from hospital. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality during the 2 years after hospital discharge. We assessed the discriminative capacity of SPPB score for predicting mortality by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. RESULTS: A total of 95 events (17.5%) occurred during the follow-up period. The area under the curve of ROC (95% confidence interval) was 0.80 (0.71-0.88) in HFrEF, 0.61 (0.46-0.76) in HFmrEF, and 0.70 (0.61-0.79) in HFpEF group. After adjustment for potential confounders, the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of the lower SPPB score were 5.38 (2.34-14.6) in HFrEF group, 1.12 (0.36-3.29) in HFmrEF group, and 3.19 (1.68-6.22) in HFpEF group. CONCLUSIONS: Prognostic value of SPPB score varies according to the HF phenotype. SPPB score predicts mortality in patients with HFrEF and HFpEF, but not in patients with HFmrEF. These findings lead to more precise risk prediction by SPPB score in patients with HF.

A clinical score to predict mortality in patients after acute heart failure from Japanese registry.

AIMS: Clinical scores that consider physical and social factors to predict long-term observations in patients after acute heart failure are limited. This study aimed to develop and validate a prediction model for patients with acute heart failure at the time of discharge. METHODS AND RESULTS: This study was retrospective analysis of the Kitakawachi Clinical Background and Outcome of Heart Failure Registry database. The registry is a prospective, multicentre cohort of patients with acute heart failure between April 2015 and August 2017. The primary outcome to be predicted was the incidence of all-cause mortality during the 3 years of follow-up period. The development cohort derived from April 2015 to July 2016 was used to build the prediction model, and the test cohort from August 2016 to August 2017 was used to evaluate the prediction model. The following potential predictors were selected by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method: age, sex, body mass index, activities of daily living at discharge, social background, comorbidities, biomarkers, and echocardiographic findings; a risk scoring system was developed using a logistic model to predict the outcome using a simple integer based on each variable's ß coefficient. Out of 1253 patients registered, 1117 were included in the analysis and divided into the development (n = 679) and test (n = 438) cohorts. The outcomes were 246 (36.2%) in the development cohort and 143 (32.6%) in the test cohort. Eleven variables including physical and social factors were set into the logistic regression model, and the risk scoring system was created. The patients were divided into three groups: low risk (score 0-5), moderate risk (score 6-11), and high risk (score ≥12). The observed and predicted mortality rates were described by the Kaplan-Meier curve divided by risk group and independently increased (P < 0.001). In the test cohort, the C statistic of the prediction model was 0.778 (95% confidence interval: 0.732-0.824), and the mean predicted probabilities in the groups were low, 6.9% (95% confidence interval: 3.8-10%); moderate, 30.1% (95% confidence interval: 25.4%-34.8%); and high, 79.2% (95% confidence interval: 72.6%-85.8%). The predicted probability was well calibrated to the observed outcomes in both cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The Kitakawachi Clinical Background and Outcome of Heart Failure score was helpful in predicting adverse events in patients with acute heart failure over a long-term period. We should evaluate the physical and social functions of such patients before discharge to prevent adverse outcomes.

Living Alone and Gender Differences in Rehospitalization for Heart Failure After Discharge Among Acute Heart Failure Patients.

Home treatment for heart failure (HF) is one of the most important problems in patients after discharge as a secondary preventive measure for rehospitalization for HF. However, there are no detailed studies on gender differences in sociopsychological factors such as living alone for HF rehospitalization among patients with acute HF (AHF).This prospective multicenter cohort study enrolled patients with AHF between April 2015 and August 2017. Patients of each gender with first AHF were divided into those living alone and those not living alone. The primary endpoint was defined as rehospitalization for HF after discharge. Cox proportional hazard analysis was performed to determine the association between living alone and the endpoint.Overall, 581 patients were included in this study during the 3-year follow-up. The proportion of rehospitalization for HF was significantly higher in patients living alone than in those not living alone among male patients. However, female patients showed no difference in endpoints between the two groups. The difference was independently maintained even after adjusting for differences in social backgrounds in male patients (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 2.02; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.07-3.70). In female patients, the HR for rehospitalization for HF showed no difference between the two groups (adjusted HR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.56-1.69).In this study population, male patients living alone after first AHF discharge had a higher risk of rehospitalization for HF than those not living alone, but these differences were not observed in female patients.

Impact of home- and community-based services in the long-term care insurance system on outcomes of patients with acute heart failure: Insights from the Kitakawachi Clinical Background and Outcome of Heart Failure Registry.

AIM: In Japan, the long-term care insurance (LTCI) system is important for elderly people living at home; however, no clinical studies have revealed a relationship between home- or community-based services and outcomes in patients with acute heart failure (AHF). METHODS: This was a prospective multicenter cohort study of patients with AHF enrolled between April 2015 and August 2017. Patients aged ≥65 years with LTCI were divided into those receiving home- and community-based services (service users) and without home and community-based services (service non-users). The endpoint was defined as a composite endpoint, which included all-cause mortality and hospitalization for heart failure after discharge. Subgroup analyses were performed for elderly patients (<85 years) or super-elderly patients (≥85 years). RESULTS: The study participants were eligible for LTCI two times more than community-dwelling people were. At the 1-year follow-up period, the rate of the composite endpoint showed no significant difference between service users and service non-users among all patients or super-elderly patients. However, in elderly patients, the rate of the composite endpoint was significantly lower among service users than service non-users. The difference was independently maintained even after adjustments for differences in comorbidities or in social backgrounds (adjusted hazard ratio 0.62; 95% confidence interval 0.38-0.99, and adjusted hazard ratio 0.57; 95% confidence interval 0.35-0.90, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, adverse events following discharge of patients with AHF who used home- and community-based services were prevented only in elderly patients, not in super-elderly patients. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2020; 20: 967-973.

Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes of Heart Failure Patients With Long-Term Care Insurance　- Insights From the Kitakawachi Clinical Background and Outcome of Heart Failure Registry.

BACKGROUND: In Japan, the long-term care insurance (LTCI) system has an important role in helping elderly people, but there have been no clinical studies that have examined the relationship between the LTCI and prognosis for patients with acute heart failure (HF).Methods and Results:This registry was a prospective multicenter cohort, 1,253 patients were enrolled and 965 patients with acute HF aged ≥65 years were comprised the study group. The composite endpoint included all-cause death and hospitalization for HF after discharge. We divided the patients into 4 groups: (i) patients without LTCI, (ii) patients requiring support level 1 or 2, (iii) patients with care level 1 or 2, and (iv) patients with care levels 3-5. The Kaplan-Meier analysis identified a lower rate of the composite endpoint in group (i) than in the other groups. After adjusting for potentially confounding effects using a Cox proportional regression model, the hazard ratio (HR) of the composite endpoint increased significantly in groups (iii) and (iv) (adjusted HR, 1.62; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.22-1.98 and adjusted HR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.23-2.14, respectively) when compared with group (i). However, there was no significant difference between groups (i) and (ii). CONCLUSIONS: The level of LTCI was associated with a higher risk of the composite endpoint after discharge in acute HF patients.

A global database of nitrogen and phosphorus excretion rates of aquatic animals.

Animals can be important in modulating ecosystem-level nutrient cycling, although their importance varies greatly among species and ecosystems. Nutrient cycling rates of individual animals represent valuable data for testing the predictions of important frameworks such as the Metabolic Theory of Ecology (MTE) and ecological stoichiometry (ES). They also represent an important set of functional traits that may reflect both environmental and phylogenetic influences. Over the past two decades, studies of animal-mediated nutrient cycling have increased dramatically, especially in aquatic ecosystems. Here we present a global compilation of aquatic animal nutrient excretion rates. The dataset includes 10,534 observations from freshwater and marine animals of N and/or P excretion rates. These observations represent 491 species, including most aquatic phyla. Coverage varies greatly among phyla and other taxonomic levels. The dataset includes information on animal body size, ambient temperature, taxonomic affiliations, and animal body N:P. This data set was used to test predictions of MTE and ES, as described in Vanni and McIntyre (2016; Ecology DOI: 10.1002/ecy.1582).

Clinical Characteristics and Social Frailty of Super-Elderly Patients With Heart Failure　- The Kitakawachi Clinical Background and Outcome of Heart Failure Registry.

BACKGROUND: Social background is important in preventing admission/readmission of heart failure (HF) patients. However, few clinical studies have been conducted to assess the social background of these patients, especially elderly patients.Methods and Results:The Kitakawachi Clinical Background and Outcome of Heart Failure (KICKOFF) Registry is a prospective multicenter community-based cohort of HF patients, established in April 2015. We compared the clinical characteristics and social background of the super-elderly group (≥85 years old) and the non-super-elderly group (<85 years old). This study included 647 patients; 11.8% of the super-elderly patients were living alone, 15.6% were living with only a partner, and of these, only 66.7% had the support of other family members. The super-elderly group had less control over their diet and drug therapies than the non-super-elderly group. Most patients in the super-elderly group were registered for long-term care insurance (77.4%); 73.5% of the super-elderly patients could walk independently before admission, but only 55.5% could walk independently at discharge, whereas 94% of the non-super-elderly patients could walk independently before admission and 89.4% could walk independently at discharge. CONCLUSIONS: The KICKOFF Registry provides unique detailed social background information of Japanese patients with HF. Super-elderly patients are at serious risk of social frailty; they need the support of other people and their ability to perform activities of daily living decline when hospitalized.

Studies on the effect of ball milling on lignin structure using a modified DFRC method.

The structures of milled wood lignin (MWL), cellulolytic enzyme lignin (CEL), and residual lignin (REL) from a loblolly pine were analyzed using a modified derivatization followed by reductive cleavage (DFRC) method developed to allow the quantitative determination of three different structural monomeric products originating in lignin: phenolic beta-O-4, alpha-O-4, and etherified beta-O-4 structures. Results show that MWL and CEL are structurally identical, with an increased phenolic beta-O-4 content compared to that of the original Wiley milled wood. These results indicate that the portion of lignin linked to carbohydrates and that not linked to carbohydrates are structurally the same. Modified DFRC analysis of the effect of ball milling on the structure of lignin in wood, MWL, CEL, and REL indicate that vibratory ball milling does not change the lignin structure provided certain precautions are taken. Specifically, dry vibratory ball milling under a nitrogen atmosphere causes substantial structural changes including condensation, whereas vibratory ball milling in toluene had little effect on the lignin structure. This indicates that the structural differences observed in MWL and CEL arise because of the extraction procedure, which preferentially extracts phenolic lignin structures. MWL and CEL are representative of the total lignin in wood; however, due primarily to the solvent extraction process, higher phenolic hydroxyl contents are observed. Nitrobenzene oxidation showed structural results similar to those from the modified DFRC method.