Spatio-temporal distribution of vector borne diseases in Australia and Papua New Guinea vis-à-vis climatic factors.

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES: Weather and climate are directly linked to human health including the distribution and occurrence of vector-borne diseases which are of significant concern for public health. METHODS: In this review, studies on spatiotemporal distribution of dengue, Barmah Forest Virus (BFV) and Ross River Virus (RRV) in Australia and malaria in Papua New Guinea (PNG) under the influence of climate change and/ or human society conducted in the past two decades were analysed and summarised. Environmental factors such as temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and tides were the main contributors from climate. RESULTS: The Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) index (a product from the Australian Bureau of Statistics that ranks areas in Australia according to relative socio-economic advantage and disadvantage) was important in evaluating contribution from human society. INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSION: For future studies, more emphasis on evaluation of impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and human society on spatio-temporal distribution of vector borne diseases is recommended to highlight importance of the environmental factors in spreading mosquito-borne diseases in Australia and PNG.

Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea.

OBJECTIVES: This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. METHODS: Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. RESULTS: Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

Effect of Climate Factors on the Childhood Pneumonia in Papua New Guinea: A Time-Series Analysis.

This study aimed to assess the association between climate factors and the incidence of childhood pneumonia in Papua New Guinea quantitatively and to evaluate the variability of the effect size according to their geographic properties. The pneumonia incidence in children under five-year and meteorological factors were obtained from six areas, including monthly rainfall and the monthly average daily maximum temperatures during the period from 1997 to 2006 from national health surveillance data. A generalized linear model was applied to measure the effect size of local and regional climate factor. The pooled risk of pneumonia in children per every 10 mm increase of rainfall was 0.24% (95% confidence interval: -0.01%-0.50%), and risk per every 1 °C increase of the monthly mean of the maximum daily temperatures was 4.88% (95% CI: 1.57-8.30). Southern oscillation index and dipole mode index showed an overall negative effect on childhood pneumonia incidence, -0.57% and -4.30%, respectively, and the risk of pneumonia was higher in the dry season than in the rainy season (pooled effect: 12.08%). There was a variability in the relationship between climate factors and pneumonia which is assumed to reflect distribution of the determinants of and vulnerability to pneumonia in the community.