Care interruptions and mortality among adults in Europe and North America: a collaborative analysis of cohort studies.

OBJECTIVE: Interruptions in care of people with HIV (PWH) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are associated with adverse outcomes, but most studies have relied on composite outcomes. We investigated whether mortality risk following care interruptions differed from mortality risk after first starting ART. DESIGN: Collaboration of 18 European and North American HIV observational cohort studies of adults with HIV starting ART between 2004-2019. METHODS: Care interruptions were defined as gaps in contact of ≥365 days, with a subsequent return to care (distinct from loss to follow-up), or ≥270 days and ≥545 days in sensitivity analyses. Follow-up time was allocated to no/pre-interruption or post-interruption follow-up groups. We used Cox regression to compare hazards of mortality between care interruption groups, adjusting for time-updated demographic and clinical characteristics and biomarkers upon ART initiation or re-initiation of care. RESULTS: Of 89197 PWH, 83.4% were male and median age at ART start was 39 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 31-48). 8654 PWH (9.7%) had ≥1 care interruption; 10913 episodes of follow-up following a care interruption were included. There were 6104 deaths in 536,334 person-years, a crude mortality rate of 11.4 (95%CI: 11.1-11.7) per 1000 person-years. The adjusted mortality hazard ratio (HR) for the post-interruption group was 1.72 (95%CI: 1.57-1.88) compared with the no/pre-interruption group. Results were robust to sensitivity analyses assuming ≥270-day (HR 1.49, 95%CI: 1.40-1.60) and ≥545-day (HR 1.67, 95%CI: 1.48-1.88) interruptions. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality was higher among PWH reinitiating care following an interruption, compared with when PWH initially start ART, indicating the importance of uninterrupted care.

Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factor Control in People With and Without HIV.

BACKGROUND: Management of hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes and other modifiable factors may mitigate the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV, PWH) compared with people without HIV (PWoH). METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of 8285 PWH and 170 517 PWoH from an integrated health system. Risk factor control was measured using a novel disease management index (DMI) accounting for amount/duration above treatment goals (0% to 100% [perfect control]), including 2 DMIs for hypertension (diastolic and systolic blood pressure), 3 for dyslipidemia (low-density lipoprotein, total cholesterol, triglycerides), and 1 for diabetes (HbA1c). CVD risk by HIV status was evaluated overall and in subgroups defined by DMIs, smoking, alcohol use, and overweight/obesity in adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: PWH and PWoH had similar DMIs (80%-100%) except for triglycerides (worse for PWH) and HbA1c (better for PWH). In adjusted models, PWH had an elevated risk of CVD compared with PWoH (hazard ratio [HR], 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07-1.31). This association was attenuated in subgroups with controlled dyslipidemia and diabetes but remained elevated for PWH with controlled hypertension or higher total cholesterol. The strongest HIV status association with CVD was seen in the subgroup with frequent unhealthy alcohol use (HR, 2.13; 95% CI, 1.04-4.34). CONCLUSIONS: Control of dyslipidemia and diabetes, but not hypertension, attenuated the HIV status association with CVD. The strong association of HIV and CVD with frequent unhealthy alcohol use suggests enhanced screening and treatment of alcohol problems in PWH is warranted.

Longitudinal trends in causes of death among adults with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in Europe and North America from 1996 to 2020: a collaboration of cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Mortality rates among people with HIV have fallen since 1996 following the widespread availability of effective antiretroviral therapy (ART). Patterns of cause-specific mortality are evolving as the population with HIV ages. We aimed to investigate longitudinal trends in cause-specific mortality among people with HIV starting ART in Europe and North America. METHODS: In this collaborative observational cohort study, we used data from 17 European and North American HIV cohorts contributing data to the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration. We included data for people with HIV who started ART between 1996 and 2020 at the age of 16 years or older. Causes of death were classified into a single cause by both a clinician and an algorithm if International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision or Tenth Revision data were available, or independently by two clinicians. Disagreements were resolved through panel discussion. We used Poisson models to compare cause-specific mortality rates during the calendar periods 1996-99, 2000-03, 2004-07, 2008-11, 2012-15, and 2016-20, adjusted for time-updated age, CD4 count, and whether the individual was ART-naive at the start of each period. FINDINGS: Among 189 301 people with HIV included in this study, 16 832 (8·9%) deaths were recorded during 1 519 200 person-years of follow-up. 13 180 (78·3%) deaths were classified by cause: the most common causes were AIDS (4203 deaths; 25·0%), non-AIDS non-hepatitis malignancy (2311; 13·7%), and cardiovascular or heart-related (1403; 8·3%) mortality. The proportion of deaths due to AIDS declined from 49% during 1996-99 to 16% during 2016-20. Rates of all-cause mortality per 1000 person-years decreased from 16·8 deaths (95% CI 15·4-18·4) during 1996-99 to 7·9 deaths (7·6-8·2) during 2016-20. Rates of all-cause mortality declined with time: the average adjusted mortality rate ratio per calendar period was 0·85 (95% CI 0·84-0·86). Rates of cause-specific mortality also declined: the most pronounced reduction was for AIDS-related mortality (0·81; 0·79-0·83). There were also reductions in rates of cardiovascular-related (0·83, 0·79-0·87), liver-related (0·88, 0·84-0·93), non-AIDS infection-related (0·91, 0·86-0·96), non-AIDS-non-hepatocellular carcinoma malignancy-related (0·94, 0·90-0·97), and suicide or accident-related mortality (0·89, 0·82-0·95). Mortality rates among people who acquired HIV through injecting drug use increased in women (1·07, 1·00-1·14) and decreased slightly in men (0·96, 0·93-0·99). INTERPRETATION: Reductions of most major causes of death, particularly AIDS-related deaths among people with HIV on ART, were not seen for all subgroups. Interventions targeted at high-risk groups, substance use, and comorbidities might further increase life expectancy in people with HIV towards that in the general population. FUNDING: US National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism.

Estimation of Improvements in Mortality in Spectrum Among Adults With HIV Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy in High-Income Countries.

INTRODUCTION: Mortality rates for people living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in high-income countries continue to decline. We compared mortality rates among PLHIV on ART in Europe for 2016-2020 with Spectrum's estimates. METHODS: The AIDS Impact Module in Spectrum is a compartmental HIV epidemic model coupled with a demographic population projection model. We used national Spectrum projections developed for the 2022 HIV estimates round to calculate mortality rates among PLHIV on ART, adjusting to the age/country distribution of PLHIV starting ART from 1996 to 2020 in the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC)'s European cohorts. RESULTS: In the ART-CC, 11,504 of 162,835 PLHIV died. Between 1996-1999 and 2016-2020, AIDS-related mortality in the ART-CC decreased from 8.8 (95% CI: 7.6 to 10.1) to 1.0 (0.9-1.2) and from 5.9 (4.4-8.1) to 1.1 (0.9-1.4) deaths per 1000 person-years among men and women, respectively. Non-AIDS-related mortality decreased from 9.1 (7.9-10.5) to 6.1 (5.8-6.5) and from 7.0 (5.2-9.3) to 4.8 (4.3-5.2) deaths per 1000 person-years among men and women, respectively. Adjusted all-cause mortality rates in Spectrum among men were near ART-CC estimates for 2016-2020 (Spectrum: 7.02-7.47 deaths per 1000 person-years) but approximately 20% lower in women (Spectrum: 4.66-4.70). Adjusted excess mortality rates in Spectrum were 2.5-fold higher in women and 3.1-3.4-fold higher in men in comparison to the ART-CC's AIDS-specific mortality rates. DISCUSSION: Spectrum's all-cause mortality estimates among PLHIV are consistent with age/country-controlled mortality observed in ART-CC, with some underestimation of mortality among women. Comparing results suggest that 60%-70% of excess deaths among PLHIV on ART in Spectrum are from non-AIDS causes.

Change in HIV-related characteristics of children hospitalised with infectious diseases in Western Cape, South Africa, 2008-2021: a time trend analysis.

INTRODUCTION: With the scaling up of vertical HIV transmission prevention programmes, the HIV-related population profile of children in South Africa has shifted. We described temporal changes in HIV-related characteristics of children, aged ≤3 years (up to the third birthday), with infectious disease hospitalisations across the Western Cape province. METHODS: We used routinely collected electronic data to identify children born in the Western Cape with infectious disease hospital records for lower respiratory tract infections, diarrhoea, meningitis and tuberculous meningitis, from 2008 to 2021. Linked maternal and child unique identifiers were used to extract pregnancy, HIV-related, laboratory, pharmacy and hospitalisation data. We described temporal changes in child HIV exposure and acquisition status, timing of maternal HIV diagnosis and antiretroviral therapy (ART) start, infant exposure to maternal ART and timing thereof, and maternal CD4 and HIV viral load closest to delivery. We used logistic and multinomial regression to assess changes in characteristics between the Pre-Option B+ (2008-2013), Option B+ (2013-2016) and Universal ART periods (2016-2021). RESULTS: Among 52,811 children aged ≤3 years with hospitalisations, the proportion living with HIV dreased from 7.0% (2008) to 1.1% (2021), while those exposed to HIV and uninfected increased from 14.0% (2008) to 16.1% (2021) with a peak of 18.3% in 2017. Among mothers with HIV (n = 9873), the proportion diagnosed with HIV and starting ART before pregnancy increased from 20.2% to 69.2% and 5.8% to 59.0%, respectively, between 2008 and 2021. Children hospitalised during the Universal ART period had eight times higher odds (Odds Ratio: 8.41; 95% CI: 7.36-9.61) of exposure to maternal ART versus children admitted Pre-Option B+. Among mothers of children exposed to HIV and uninfected with CD4 records (n = 7523), the proportion with CD4 <350 cells/µl decreased from 90.6% (2008) to 27.8% (2021). CONCLUSIONS: In recent years, among children hospitalised with infectious diseases, there were fewer children with perinatally acquired HIV, while an increased proportion of those without HIV acquisition are exposed to maternal HIV and ART. There is a need to look beyond paediatric HIV prevalence and consider child exposure to HIV and ART among children without HIV, when assessing the HIV epidemic's impact on child health services.

Integrase strand-transfer inhibitor use and cardiovascular events in adults with HIV: an emulation of target trials in the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration and the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration.

BACKGROUND: A recent observational study suggested that the risk of cardiovascular events could be higher among antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive individuals with HIV who receive integrase strand-transfer inhibitor (INSTI)-based ART than among those who receive other ART regimens. We aimed to emulate target trials separately in ART-naive and ART-experienced individuals with HIV to examine the effect of using INSTI-based regimens versus other ART regimens on the 4-year risk of cardiovascular events. METHODS: We used routinely recorded clinical data from 12 cohorts that collected information on cardiovascular events, BMI, and blood pressure from two international consortia of cohorts of people with HIV from Europe and North America. For the target trial in individuals who had previously never used ART (ie, ART-naive), eligibility criteria were aged 18 years or older, a detectable HIV-RNA measurement while ART-naive (>50 copies per mL), and no history of a cardiovascular event or cancer. Eligibility criteria for the target trial in those with previous use of non-INSTI-based ART (ie, ART-experienced) were the same except that individuals had to have been on at least one non-INSTI-based ART regimen and be virally suppressed (≤50 copies per mL). We assessed eligibility for both trials for each person-month between January, 2013, and January, 2023, and assigned individuals to the treatment strategy that was compatible with their data. We estimated the standardised 4-year risks of cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, or invasive cardiovascular procedure) via pooled logistic regression models adjusting for time and baseline covariates. In per-protocol analyses, we censored individuals if they deviated from their assigned treatment strategy for more than 2 months and weighted uncensored individuals by the inverse of their time-varying probability of remaining uncensored. The denominator of the weight was estimated via a pooled logistic model that included baseline and time-varying covariates. FINDINGS: The analysis in ART-naive individuals included 10 767 INSTI initiators and 8292 non-initiators of INSTI. There were 43 cardiovascular events in INSTI initiators (median follow-up of 29 months; IQR 15-45) and 52 in non-initiators (39 months; 18-47): standardised 4-year risks were 0·76% (95% CI 0·51 to 1·04) in INSTI initiators and 0·75% (0·54 to 0·98) in non-INSTI initiators; risk ratio 1·01 (0·57 to 1·57); risk difference 0·0089% (-0·43 to 0·36). The analysis in ART-experienced individuals included 7875 INSTI initiators and 373 965 non-initiators. There were 56 events in INSTI initiators (median follow-up 18 months; IQR 9-29) and 3103 events (808 unique) in non-INSTI initiators (26 months; 15-37) in non-initiators: standardised 4-year risks 1·41% (95% CI 0·88 to 2·03) in INSTI initiators and 1·48% (1·28 to 1·71) in non-initiators; risk ratio 0·95 (0·60 to 1·36); risk difference -0·068% (-0·60 to 0·52). INTERPRETATION: We estimated that INSTI use did not result in a clinically meaningful increase of cardiovascular events in ART-naive and ART-experienced individuals with HIV. FUNDING: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism.

HIV-1 drug resistance in people on dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy: a collaborative cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: The widespread use of the integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) dolutegravir in first-line and second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) might facilitate emerging resistance. The DTG RESIST study combined data from HIV cohorts to examine patterns of drug resistance mutations (DRMs) and identify risk factors for dolutegravir resistance. METHODS: We included cohorts with INSTI resistance data from two collaborations (ART Cohort Collaboration, International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS in Southern Africa), and the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort. Eight cohorts from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland, South Africa, and the UK contributed data on individuals who were viraemic on dolutegravir-based ART and underwent genotypic resistance testing. Individuals with unknown dolutegravir initiation date were excluded. Resistance levels were categorised using the Stanford algorithm. We identified risk factors for resistance using mixed-effects ordinal logistic regression models. FINDINGS: We included 599 people with genotypic resistance testing on dolutegravir-based ART between May 22, 2013, and Dec 20, 2021. Most had HIV-1 subtype B (n=351, 59%), a third had been exposed to first-generation INSTIs (n=193, 32%), 70 (12%) were on dolutegravir dual therapy, and 18 (3%) were on dolutegravir monotherapy. INSTI DRMs were detected in 86 (14%) individuals; 20 (3%) had more than one mutation. Most (n=563, 94%) were susceptible to dolutegravir, seven (1%) had potential low, six (1%) low, 17 (3%) intermediate, and six (1%) high-level dolutegravir resistance. The risk of dolutegravir resistance was higher on dolutegravir monotherapy (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 34·1, 95% CI 9·93-117) and dolutegravir plus lamivudine dual therapy (aOR 9·21, 2·20-38·6) compared with combination ART, and in the presence of potential low or low (aOR 5·23, 1·32-20·7) or intermediate or high-level (aOR 13·4, 4·55-39·7) nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) resistance. INTERPRETATION: Among people with viraemia on dolutegravir-based ART, INSTI DRMs and dolutegravir resistance were rare. NRTI resistance substantially increased the risk of dolutegravir resistance, which is of concern, notably in resource-limited settings. Monitoring is important to prevent resistance at the individual and population level and ensure the long-term sustainability of ART. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health, Swiss National Science Foundation.

All-cause hospitalisation among people living with HIV according to gender, mode of HIV acquisition, ethnicity, and geographical origin in Europe and North America: findings from the ART-CC cohort collaboration.

BACKGROUND: Understanding demographic disparities in hospitalisation is crucial for the identification of vulnerable populations, interventions, and resource planning. METHODS: Data were from the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC) on people living with HIV in Europe and North America, followed up between January, 2007 and December, 2020. We investigated differences in all-cause hospitalisation according to gender and mode of HIV acquisition, ethnicity, and combined geographical origin and ethnicity, in people living with HIV on modern combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). Analyses were performed separately for European and North American cohorts. Hospitalisation rates were assessed using negative binomial multilevel regression, adjusted for age, time since cART intitiaion, and calendar year. FINDINGS: Among 23 594 people living with HIV in Europe and 9612 in North America, hospitalisation rates per 100 person-years were 16·2 (95% CI 16·0-16·4) and 13·1 (12·8-13·5). Compared with gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men, rates were higher for heterosexual men and women, and much higher for men and women who acquired HIV through injection drug use (adjusted incidence rate ratios ranged from 1·2 to 2·5 in Europe and from 1·2 to 3·3 in North America). In both regions, individuals with geographical origin other than the region of study generally had lower hospitalisation rates compared with those with geographical origin of the study country. In North America, Indigenous people and Black or African American individuals had higher rates than White individuals (adjusted incidence rate ratios 1·9 and 1·2), whereas Asian and Hispanic people living with HIV had somewhat lower rates. In Europe there was a lower rate in Asian individuals compared with White individuals. INTERPRETATION: Substantial disparities exist in all-cause hospitalisation between demographic groups of people living with HIV in the current cART era in high-income settings, highlighting the need for targeted support. FUNDING: Royal Free Charity and the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism.

Contribution of alcohol use in HIV/hepatitis C virus co-infection to all-cause and cause-specific mortality: A collaboration of cohort studies.

Among persons with HIV (PWH), higher alcohol use and having hepatitis C virus (HCV) are separately associated with increased morbidity and mortality. We investigated whether the association between alcohol use and mortality among PWH is modified by HCV. Data were combined from European and North American cohorts of adult PWH who started antiretroviral therapy (ART). Self-reported alcohol use data, collected in diverse ways between cohorts, were converted to grams/day. Eligible PWH started ART during 2001-2017 and were followed from ART initiation for mortality. Interactions between the associations of baseline alcohol use (0, 0.1-20.0, >20.0 g/day) and HCV status were assessed using multivariable Cox models. Of 58,769 PWH, 29,711 (51%), 23,974 (41%) and 5084 (9%) self-reported alcohol use of 0 g/day, 0.1-20.0 g/day, and > 20.0 g/day, respectively, and 4799 (8%) had HCV at baseline. There were 844 deaths in 37,729 person-years and 2755 deaths in 443,121 person-years among those with and without HCV, respectively. Among PWH without HCV, adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for mortality were 1.18 (95% CI: 1.08-1.29) for 0.0 g/day and 1.84 (1.62-2.09) for >20.0 g/day compared with 0.1-20.0 g/day. This J-shaped pattern was absent among those with HCV: aHRs were 1.00 (0.86-1.17) for 0.0 g/day and 1.64 (1.33-2.02) for >20.0 g/day compared with 0.1-20.0 g/day (interaction p < .001). Among PWH without HCV, mortality was higher in both non-drinkers and heavy drinkers compared with moderate alcohol drinkers. Among those with HCV, mortality was higher in heavy drinkers but not non-drinkers, potentially due to differing reasons for not drinking (e.g. illness) between those with and without HCV.

Impact of hepatitis C cure on risk of mortality and morbidity in people with HIV after antiretroviral therapy initiation.

OBJECTIVE: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) co-infection is associated with increased morbidity and mortality in people with HIV (PWH). Sustained virological response (SVR) decreases the risk of HCV-associated morbidity. We compared mortality, risk of AIDS-defining events, and non-AIDS nonliver (NANL) cancers between HCV-co-infected PWH who reached SVR and mono-infected PWH. DESIGN: Adult PWH from 21 cohorts in Europe and North America that collected HCV treatment data were eligible if they were HCV-free at the time of ART initiation. METHODS: Up to 10 mono-infected PWH were matched (on age, sex, date of ART start, HIV acquisition route, and being followed at the time of SVR) to each HCV-co-infected PWH who reached SVR. Cox models were used to estimate relative hazards (hazard ratio) of all-cause mortality, AIDS-defining events, and NANL cancers after adjustment. RESULTS: Among 62 495 PWH, 2756 acquired HCV, of whom 649 reached SVR. For 582 of these, at least one mono-infected PWH could be matched, producing a total of 5062 mono-infected PWH. The estimated hazard ratios comparing HCV-co-infected PWH who reached SVR with mono-infected PWH were 0.29 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.12-0.73] for mortality, 0.85 [0.42-1.74] for AIDS-defining events, and 1.21 [0.86-1.72] for NANL cancer. CONCLUSION: PWH who reached SVR a short time after HCV acquisition were not at higher risk of overall mortality compared with mono-infected PWH. However, the apparent higher risk of NANL cancers in HCV-co-infected PWH who reached SVR after a DAA-based treatment compared with mono-infected PWH, though compatible with a null association, suggests a need for monitoring of those events following SVR.

sHIV-1 drug resistance in people on dolutegravir-based ART: Collaborative analysis of cohort studies.

Background: The widespread use of the integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) dolutegravir (DTG) in first- and second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) may facilitate emerging resistance. We combined data from HIV cohorts to examine patterns of drug resistance mutations (DRMs) and identify risk factors for DTG resistance. Methods: Eight cohorts from Canada, Europe, and South Africa contributed data on individuals with genotypic resistance testing on DTG-based ART. Resistance levels were categorised using the Stanford algorithm. We identified risk factors for resistance using mixed-effects ordinal logistic regression models. Results: We included 750 people with genotypic resistance testing on DTG-based ART between 2013 and 2022. Most had HIV subtype B (N=444, 59·2%) and were treatment-experienced; 134 (17.9%) were on DTG dual and 19 (2.5%) on DTG monotherapy. INSTI DRMs were detected in 100 (13·3%) individuals; 21 (2·8%) had more than one mutation. Most (N=713, 95·1%) were susceptible to DTG, 8 (1·1%) had potential-low, 5 (0·7%) low, 18 (2·4%) intermediate and 6 (0·8%) high-level DTG resistance. The risk of DTG resistance was higher on DTG monotherapy (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 37·25, 95% CI 11·17 to 124·2) and DTG lamivudine dual therapy (aOR 6·59, 95% CI 1·70 to 25·55) compared to combination ART, and higher in the presence of potential-low/low (aOR 4.62, 95% CI 1.24 to 17.2) or intermediate/high-level (aOR 7·01, 95% CI 2·52 to 19·48) nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) resistance. Viral load on DTG showed a trend towards increased DTG resistance (aOR 1·42, 95% CI 0·92 to 2·19 per standard deviation of log10 area under the viral load curve). Interpretation: Among people experiencing virological failure on DTG-based ART, INSTI DRMs were uncommon, and DTG resistance was rare. DTG monotherapy and NRTI resistance substantially increased the risk for DTG resistance, which is of concern, notably in resource-limited settings.

Early Antiretroviral Therapy Not Associated With Higher Cryptococcal Meningitis Mortality in People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in High-Income Countries: An International Collaborative Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) from low- and middle-income settings suggested that early initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) leads to higher mortality rates among people with HIV (PWH) who present with cryptococcal meningitis (CM). There is limited information about the impact of ART timing on mortality rates in similar people in high-income settings. METHODS: Data on ART-naive PWH with CM diagnosed from 1994 to 2012 from Europe/North America were pooled from the COHERE, NA-ACCORD, and CNICS HIV cohort collaborations. Follow-up was considered to span from the date of CM diagnosis to earliest of the following: death, last follow-up, or 6 months. We used marginal structural models to mimic an RCT comparing the effects of early (within 14 days of CM) and late (14-56 days after CM) ART on all-cause mortality, adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: Of 190 participants identified, 33 (17%) died within 6 months. At CM diagnosis, their median age (interquartile range) was 38 (33-44) years; the median CD4+ T-cell count, 19/µL (10-56/µL); and median HIV viral load, 5.3 (4.9-5.6) log10 copies/mL. Most participants (n = 157 [83%]) were male, and 145 (76%) started ART. Mimicking an RCT, with 190 people in each group, there were 13 deaths among participants with an early ART regimen and 20 deaths among those with a late ART regimen. The crude and adjusted hazard ratios comparing late with early ART were 1.28 (95% confidence interval, .64-2.56) and 1.40 (.66-2.95), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We found little evidence that early ART was associated with higher mortality rates among PWH presenting with CM in high-income settings, although confidence intervals were wide.

Associations of modern initial antiretroviral drug regimens with all-cause mortality in adults with HIV in Europe and North America: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Over the past decade, antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens that include integrase strand inhibitors (INSTIs) have become the most commonly used for people with HIV starting ART. Although trials and observational studies have compared virological failure on INSTI-based with other regimens, few data are available on mortality in people with HIV treated with INSTIs in routine care. Therefore, we compared all-cause mortality between different INSTI-based and non-INSTI-based regimens in adults with HIV starting ART from 2013 to 2018. METHODS: This cohort study used data on people with HIV in Europe and North America from the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC) and UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (UK CHIC). We studied the most common third antiretroviral drugs (additional to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor) used from 2013 to 2018: rilpivirine, darunavir, raltegravir, elvitegravir, dolutegravir, efavirenz, and others. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs; adjusted for clinical and demographic characteristics, comorbid conditions, and other drugs in the regimen) for mortality were estimated using Cox models stratified by ART start year and cohort, with multiple imputation of missing data. FINDINGS: 62 500 ART-naive people with HIV starting ART (12 422 [19·9%] women; median age 38 [IQR 30-48]) were included in the study. 1243 (2·0%) died during 188 952 person-years of follow-up (median 3·0 years [IQR 1·6-4·4]). There was little evidence that mortality rates differed between regimens with dolutegravir, elvitegravir, rilpivirine, darunavir, or efavirenz as the third drug. However, mortality was higher for raltegravir compared with dolutegravir (aHR 1·49, 95% CI 1·15-1·94), elvitegravir (1·86, 1·43-2·42), rilpivirine (1·99, 1·49-2·66), darunavir (1·62, 1·33-1·98), and efavirenz (2·12, 1·60-2·81) regimens. Results were similar for analyses making different assumptions about missing data and consistent across the time periods 2013-15 and 2016-18. Rates of virological suppression were higher for dolutegravir than other third drugs. INTERPRETATION: This large study of patients starting ART since the introduction of INSTIs found little evidence that mortality rates differed between most first-line ART regimens; however, raltegravir-based regimens were associated with higher mortality. Although unmeasured confounding cannot be excluded as an explanation for our findings, virological benefits of first-line INSTIs-based ART might not translate to differences in mortality. FUNDING: US National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism and UK Medical Research Council.

Epigenetic biomarkers of ageing are predictive of mortality risk in a longitudinal clinical cohort of individuals diagnosed with oropharyngeal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Epigenetic clocks are biomarkers of ageing derived from DNA methylation levels at a subset of CpG sites. The difference between age predicted by these clocks and chronological age, termed "epigenetic age acceleration", has been shown to predict age-related disease and mortality. We aimed to assess the prognostic value of epigenetic age acceleration and a DNA methylation-based mortality risk score with all-cause mortality in a prospective clinical cohort of individuals with head and neck cancer: Head and Neck 5000. We investigated two markers of intrinsic epigenetic age acceleration (IEAAHorvath and IEAAHannum), one marker of extrinsic epigenetic age acceleration (EEAA), one optimised to predict physiological dysregulation (AgeAccelPheno), one optimised to predict lifespan (AgeAccelGrim) and a DNA methylation-based predictor of mortality (ZhangScore). Cox regression models were first used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations of epigenetic age acceleration with all-cause mortality in people with oropharyngeal cancer (n = 408; 105 deaths). The added prognostic value of epigenetic markers compared to a clinical model including age, sex, TNM stage and HPV status was then evaluated. RESULTS: IEAAHannum and AgeAccelGrim were associated with mortality risk after adjustment for clinical and lifestyle factors (HRs per standard deviation [SD] increase in age acceleration = 1.30 [95% CI 1.07, 1.57; p = 0.007] and 1.40 [95% CI 1.06, 1.83; p = 0.016], respectively). There was weak evidence that the addition of AgeAccelGrim to the clinical model improved 3-year mortality prediction (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.80 vs. 0.77; p value for difference = 0.069). CONCLUSION: In the setting of a large, clinical cohort of individuals with head and neck cancer, our study demonstrates the potential of epigenetic markers of ageing to enhance survival prediction in people with oropharyngeal cancer, beyond established prognostic factors. Our findings have potential uses in both clinical and non-clinical contexts: to aid treatment planning and improve patient stratification.

Prospective Study of the Performance of Parent-Collected Nasal and Saliva Swab Samples, Compared with Nurse-Collected Swab Samples, for the Molecular Detection of Respiratory Microorganisms.

Respiratory tract infections (RTIs) are ubiquitous among children in the community. A prospective observational study was performed to evaluate the diagnostic performance and quality of at-home parent-collected (PC) nasal and saliva swab samples, compared to nurse-collected (NC) swab samples, from children with RTI symptoms. Children with RTI symptoms were swabbed at home on the same day by a parent and a nurse. We compared the performance of PC swab samples as the test with NC swab samples as the reference for the detection of respiratory pathogen gene targets by reverse transcriptase PCR, with quality assessment using a human gene. PC and NC paired nasal and saliva swab samples were collected from 91 and 92 children, respectively. Performance and interrater agreement (Cohen's κ) of PC versus NC nasal swab samples for viruses combined showed sensitivity of 91.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 85.47 to 95.73%) and κ of 0.84 (95% CI, 0.79 to 0.88), respectively; the respective values for bacteria combined were 91.4% (95% CI, 86.85 to 94.87%) and κ of 0.85 (95% CI, 0.80 to 0.89). In saliva samples, viral and bacterial sensitivities were lower at 69.0% (95% CI, 57.47 to 79.76%) and 78.1% (95% CI, 71.60 to 83.76%), as were κ values at 0.64 (95% CI, 0.53 to 0.72) and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.65 to 0.76), respectively. Quality assessment for human biological material (18S rRNA) indicated perfect interrater agreement. At-home PC nasal swab samples performed comparably to NC swab samples, whereas PC saliva swab samples lacked sensitivity for the detection of respiratory microbes. IMPORTANCE RTIs are ubiquitous among children. Diagnosis involves a swab sample being taken by a health professional, which places a considerable burden on community health care systems, given the number of cases involved. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has seen an increase in the at-home self-collection of upper respiratory tract swab samples without the involvement of health professionals. It is advised that parents conduct or supervise swabbing of children. Surprisingly, few studies have addressed the quality of PC swab samples for subsequent identification of respiratory pathogens. We compared NC and PC nasal and saliva swab samples taken from the same child with RTI symptoms, for detection of respiratory pathogens. The PC nasal swab samples performed comparably to NC samples, whereas saliva swab samples lacked sensitivity for the detection of respiratory microbes. Collection of swab samples by parents would greatly reduce the burden on community nurses without reducing the effectiveness of diagnoses.

Determinants of Restoration of CD4 and CD8 Cell Counts and Their Ratio in HIV-1-Positive Individuals With Sustained Virological Suppression on Antiretroviral Therapy.

BACKGROUND: An increasing number of HIV-positive individuals now start antiretroviral therapy (ART) with high CD4 cell counts. We investigated whether this makes restoration of CD4 and CD8 cell counts and the CD4:CD8 ratio during virologically suppressive ART to median levels seen in HIV-uninfected individuals more likely and whether restoration depends on gender, age, and other individual characteristics. METHODS: We determined median and quartile reference values for CD4 and CD8 cell counts and their ratio using cross-sectional data from 2309 HIV-negative individuals. We used longitudinal measurements of 60,997 HIV-positive individuals from the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration in linear mixed-effects models. RESULTS: When baseline CD4 cell counts were higher, higher long-term CD4 cell counts and CD4:CD8 ratios were reached. Highest long-term CD4 cell counts were observed in middle-aged individuals. During the first 2 years, median CD8 cell counts converged toward median reference values. However, changes were small thereafter and long-term CD8 cell count levels were higher than median reference values. Median 8-year CD8 cell counts were higher when ART was started with <250 CD4 cells/mm. Median CD4:CD8 trajectories did not reach median reference values, even when ART was started at 500 cells/mm. DISCUSSION: Starting ART with a CD4 cell count of ≥500 cells/mm makes reaching median reference CD4 cell counts more likely. However, median CD4:CD8 ratio trajectories remained below the median levels of HIV-negative individuals because of persisting high CD8 cell counts. To what extent these subnormal immunological responses affect specific clinical endpoints requires further investigation.

Identifying Risk of Viral Failure in Treated HIV-Infected Patients Using Different Measures of Adherence: The Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration.

Adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is critical for successful treatment of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), but comparisons across settings are difficult because adherence is measured in different ways. We examined utility of different adherence measures for identification of patients at risk of viral failure (VF). Eight cohorts in the ART Cohort Collaboration contributed data from pharmacy refills or self-report questionnaires collected between 1996 and 2013 (N = 11689). For pharmacy data (N = 7156), we examined associations of percentage adherence during the 1st year of ART with VF (>500 copies/mL) at 1 year. For self-report data (N = 4533), we examined 28-day adherence with VF based on closest viral load measure within 6 months after questionnaire date. Since adherence differed markedly by measurement type, we defined different cut-off points for pharmacy (lower <45%, medium 45⁻99%, higher 100%) and self-report (lower ≤95%, medium 96⁻99%, higher 100%) data. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for VF in lower and medium, compared to higher adherence groups, were 23.04 (95% CI: 18.44⁻28.78) and 3.84 (3.36⁻4.39) for pharmacy data. For self-report data, they were 3.19 (2.31⁻4.40) and 1.08 (0.80⁻1.46). Both types of measure were strongly associated with VF. Although adherence measurements over longer time-frames are preferable for prediction, they are less useful for intervention.

Does locally relevant, real-time infection epidemiological data improve clinician management and antimicrobial prescribing in primary care? A systematic review.

Purpose: Antimicrobial resistance is a significant threat to public health. Diagnostic uncertainty is a key driver of antimicrobial prescribing. We sought to determine whether locally relevant, real-time syndromic or microbiological infection epidemiology can improve prescribing by reducing diagnostic uncertainty. Methods: Eligible studies investigated effects on primary care prescribing for common infections in Organisation For Economic Co-Operation And Development countries. We searched Medline, Embase, Cumulative index to nursing and allied health literature, Web of Science, grey literature sources, thesis databases and trial registries. Results: We identified 9548 reports, of which 17 were eligible, reporting 12 studies, of which 3 reported relevant outcomes. The first (observational) showed antibacterial prescribing for upper respiratory infections reduced from 26.4% to 8.6% (P = 0.01). The second (observational) showed antibacterial prescribing reduced during influenza pandemic compared with seasonal influenza periods [odds ratio (OR) 0.72 (95% CI, 0.68 to 0.77), P < 0.001], while antiviral prescribing increased [OR 6.43 (95% CI, 5.02 to 8.25), P < 0.001]. The likelihood of prescribing also decreased as the number of infection cases a physician saw increased in the previous week [OR 0.57 (95% CI, 0.51 to 0.63), P < 0.001 for ≥12 versus ≤1 patient). The third (randomized-controlled trial) showed an absolute reduction in antibacterial prescribing of 5.1% during a period of moderate influenza activity (P < 0.05). We did not find measures of diagnostic certainty, harms or costs. Conclusion: There is promising evidence that epidemiological syndromic and microbiological data can reduce primary care antimicrobial prescribing. Future research should use randomized designs of behaviourally informed interventions, investigate costs and harms, and establish mechanisms of behaviour change. PROSPERO registration: CRD42016038871.

Increased non-AIDS mortality among persons with AIDS-defining events after antiretroviral therapy initiation.

INTRODUCTION: HIV-1 infection leads to chronic inflammation and to an increased risk of non-AIDS mortality. Our objective was to determine whether AIDS-defining events (ADEs) were associated with increased overall and cause-specific non-AIDS related mortality after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. METHODS: We included HIV treatment-naïve adults from the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC) who initiated ART from 1996 to 2014. Causes of death were assigned using the Coding Causes of Death in HIV (CoDe) protocol. The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for overall and cause-specific non-AIDS mortality among those with an ADE (all ADEs, tuberculosis (TB), Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia (PJP), and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL)) compared to those without an ADE was estimated using a marginal structural model. RESULTS: The adjusted hazard of overall non-AIDS mortality was higher among those with any ADE compared to those without any ADE (aHR 2.21, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.00 to 2.43). The adjusted hazard of each of the cause-specific non-AIDS related deaths were higher among those with any ADE compared to those without, except metabolic deaths (malignancy aHR 2.59 (95% CI 2.13 to 3.14), accident/suicide/overdose aHR 1.37 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.79), cardiovascular aHR 1.95 (95% CI 1.54 to 2.48), infection aHR (95% CI 1.68 to 2.81), hepatic aHR 2.09 (95% CI 1.61 to 2.72), respiratory aHR 4.28 (95% CI 2.67 to 6.88), renal aHR 5.81 (95% CI 2.69 to 12.56) and central nervous aHR 1.53 (95% CI 1.18 to 5.44)). The risk of overall and cause-specific non-AIDS mortality differed depending on the specific ADE of interest (TB, PJP, NHL). CONCLUSIONS: In this large multi-centre cohort collaboration with standardized assignment of causes of death, non-AIDS mortality was twice as high among patients with an ADE compared to without an ADE. However, non-AIDS related mortality after an ADE depended on the ADE of interest. Although there may be unmeasured confounders, these findings suggest that a common pathway may be independently driving both ADEs and NADE mortality. While prevention of ADEs may reduce subsequent death due to NADEs following ART initiation, modification of risk factors for NADE mortality remains important after ADE survival.

Which azithromycin regimen should be used for treating Mycoplasma genitalium? A meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing evidence that azithromycin 1 g is driving the emergence of macrolide resistance in Mycoplasma genitalium worldwide. We undertook a meta-analysis of M. genitalium treatment studies using azithromycin 1 g single dose and azithromycin 500 mg on day 1 then 250 mg daily for 4 days (5-day regimen) to determine rates of treatment failure and resistance in both regimens. METHODS: The online databases PubMed and Medline were searched using terms "Mycoplasma genitalium", "macrolide" or "azithromycin" and "resistance" up to April 2016. Studies were eligible if they: used azithromycin 1 g or 5 days, assessed patients for macrolide resistant genetic mutations prior to treatment and patients who failed were again resistance genotyped. Random effects meta-analysis was used to estimate failure and resistance rates. RESULTS: Eight studies were identified totalling 435 patients of whom 82 (18.9%) had received the 5-day regimen. The random effects pooled rate of treatment failure and development of macrolide antimicrobial resistance mutations with azithromycin 1 g was 13.9% (95% CI 7.7% to 20.1%) and 12.0% (7.1% to 16.9%), respectively. Of individuals treated with the 5-day regimen, with no prior doxycycline treatment, fewer (3.7%; 95% CI 0.8% to 10.3%, p=0.012) failed treatment, all of whom developed resistance (p=0.027). CONCLUSION: Azithromycin 1 g is associated with high rates of treatment failure and development of macrolide resistance in M. genitalium infection with no pre-existing macrolide mutations. There is moderate but conflicting evidence that the 5-day regimen may be more effective and less likely to cause resistance.