Epidemiology of reported cases of leptospirosis in the EU/EEA, 2010 to 2021.

BackgroundLeptospirosis is a zoonotic disease caused by bacteria of the genus Leptospira. Humans are infected by exposure to animal urine or urine-contaminated environments. Although disease incidence is lower in Europe compared with tropical regions, there have been reports of an increase in leptospirosis cases since the 2000s in some European countries.AimWe aimed to describe the epidemiology of reported cases of leptospirosis in the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) during 2010-2021 and to identify potential changes in epidemiological patterns.MethodsWe ran a descriptive analysis of leptospirosis cases reported by EU/EEA countries to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control with disease during 2010-2021. We also analysed trends at EU/EEA and national level.ResultsDuring 2010-2021, 23 countries reported 12,180 confirmed leptospirosis cases corresponding to a mean annual notification rate of 0.24 cases per 100,000 population. Five countries (France, Germany, the Netherlands, Portugal and Romania) accounted for 79% of all reported cases. The highest notification rate was observed in Slovenia with 0.82 cases per 100,000 population. Overall, the notification rate increased by 5.0% per year from 2010 to 2021 (95% CI: 1.2-8.8%), although trends differed across countries.ConclusionThe notification rate of leptospirosis at EU/EEA level increased during 2010-2021 despite including the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated changes in population behaviours. Studies at (sub)national level would help broaden the understanding of differences at country-level and specificities in terms of exposure to Leptospira, as well as biases in diagnosis and reporting.

Rebuttal of the arguments put forward in the Letter to the Editor by Nizzetto et al.

In their Letter to the Editor, Nizzetto et al. challange a recent article in which I show that there has been unwarranted alarmism about biodegradable mulch films due to the publication of numerous articles based on preliminary data that are irrelevant for drawing conclusions on environmental risk. The tendency to over-emphasise results in order to attract attention is a growing problem in the scientific world and has been studied by many scholars. Nizzetto et al. accuse me of not using scientific methodology and of not disclosing that I am a scientist working for a company that produces biodegradable plastics. In this rebuttal I show that Nizzetto et al.'s accusations suffer from a number of logical fallacies, in particular the "straw man" fallacy and the "ad hominem" fallacy.

The pathology of hype, hyperbole and publication bias is creating an unwarranted concern towards biodegradable mulch films.

The idea that it is a risk to promote biodegradable mulch films on a large scale is becoming established at academic level based on a series of articles similar in approach and conclusions. However, a critical analysis shows that the results do not justify the alarmist tones. The negative effects of hand-cut pieces of virgin material added in pots at concentrations up to 714 times the application doses are ascribed to the "accumulation" and "contamination" of "residues" and "debris" of biodegradable plastics. Yet, no accumulation and no contamination of biodegradable microplastics has actually been shown. No Predicted Environmental Concentration was established, thus the use of the term risk is inappropriate. The hypothesis of transient phytotoxicity of organic matter under decomposition i.e., an artificial outcome of the experimental scheme used, was not considered. A scrupulous approach to terminology is very important for the quality of communication and for the development of innovations. Scientific communication is a delicate process in which and to avoid hyperbole, there must be strict logical and lexical consistency between results and conclusions. Guidelines on the communication of the results of studies on biodegradable mulch must be developed to avoid the spread of unjustified concerns.

Hyperferritinemia and liver iron content determined with MRI: Reintroduction of the liver iron index.

BACKGROUND: Hyperferritinemia is found in around 12 % of the general population. Analyzing the cause can be difficult. In case of doubt about the presence of major iron overload most guidelines advice to perform a MRI as a reliable non-invasive marker to measure liver iron concentration (LIC). In general, a LIC of ≥ 36 µmol/g dw is considered the be elevated however in hyperferritinemia associated with, for example, obesity or alcohol (over)consumption the LIC can be ≥ 36 µmol/g dw in abscence of major iron overload. So, unfortunately a clear cut-off value to differentiate iron overload from normal iron content is lacking. Previously the liver iron index (LII) (LIC measured in liver biopsy (LIC-b)/age (years)), was introduced to differentiate between patients with major (LII ≥ 2) and minor or no iron overload (LII < 2). Based on the good correlation between the LIC-b and LIC determined with MRI (LIC-MRI), our goal was to investigate whether a LII_MRI ≥ 2 is a good indicator of major iron overload, reflected by a significantly higher amount of iron needed to be mobilized to reach iron depletion. METHODS: We compared the amount of mobilized iron to reach depletion and inflammation-related characteristics in two groups: LII-MRI ≥ 2 versus LII-MRI <2 in 92 hyperferritinemia patients who underwent HFE genotyping and MRI-LIC determination. RESULTS: Significantly more iron needed to be mobilized to reach iron depletion in the LII ≥ 2 group (mean 4741, SD ± 4135 mg) versus the LII-MRI <2 group (mean 1340, SD ± 533 mg), P < 0.001. Furthermore, hyperferritinemia in LII-MRI < 2 patients was more often related to components of the metabolic syndrome while hyperferritinemia in LII-MRI ≥ 2 patients was more often related to HFE mutations. ROC curve analysis showed good performance of LII =2 as cut-off value. However the calculations showed that the optimal cut-off for the LII = 3.4. CONCLUSION: The LII-MRI with a cut-off value of 2 is an effective method to differentiate major from minor iron overload in patients with hyperferritinemia. But the LII-MRI = 3.4 seems a more promising diagnostic test for major iron overload.

Microorganisms that produce enzymes active on biodegradable polyesters are ubiquitous.

Biodegradability standards measure ultimate biodegradation of polymers by exposing the material under test to a natural microbial inoculum. Available tests developed by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) use inoculums sampled from different environments e.g. soil, marine sediments, seawater. Understanding whether each inoculum is to be considered as microbially unique or not can be relevant for the interpretation of tests results. In this review, we address this question by consideration of the following: (i) the chemical nature of biodegradable plastics (virtually all biodegradable plastics are polyesters) (ii) the diffusion of ester bonds in nature both in simple molecules and in polymers (ubiquitous); (iii) the diffusion of decomposers capable of producing enzymes, called esterases, which accelerate the hydrolysis of esters, including polyesters (ubiquitous); (iv) the evidence showing that synthetic polyesters can be depolymerized by esterases (large and growing); (v) the evidence showing that these esterases are ubiquitous (growing and confirmed by bioinformatics studies). By combining the relevant available facts it can be concluded that if a certain polyester shows ultimate biodegradation when exposed to a natural inoculum, it can be considered biodegradable and need not be retested using other inoculums. Obviously, if the polymer does not show ultimate biodegradation it must be considered recalcitrant, until proven otherwise.

TRANSPLANTATION OF SUBRETINAL STEM CELL-DERIVED RETINAL PIGMENT EPITHELIUM FOR STARGARDT DISEASE: A Phase I Clinical Trial.

PURPOSE: To assess the safety of injecting human embryonic stem cell retinal pigment epithelial cell dose to treat Stargardt disease. METHODS: In this prospective, Phase I clinical trial, human embryonic stem cell retinal pigment epithelial cells in suspension were injected into the subretinal space in eyes with the worse best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA). After vitrectomy/posterior hyaloid removal, a partial retinal detachment was created and the human embryonic stem cell retinal pigment epithelial cells were administered. Phacoemulsification with intraocular lens implantation was performed in eyes with lens opacity. All procedures were optical coherence tomography-guided. The 12-month follow-up included retinal imaging, optical coherence tomography, visual field/electrophysiologic testing, and systemic evaluation. The main outcome was the absence of ocular/systemic inflammation or rejection, tumor formation, or toxicity during follow-up. RESULTS: The mean baseline BCVAs in the phacoemulsification and no phacoemulsification groups were similar (1.950 ± 0.446 and 1.575 ± 0.303, respectively). One year postoperatively, treated eyes showed a nonsignificant increase in BCVA. No adverse effects occurred during follow-up. Intraoperative optical coherence tomography was important for guiding all procedures. CONCLUSION: This surgical procedure was feasible and safe without cellular migration, rejection, inflammation, or development of ocular or systemic tumors during follow-up.

Sample size calculation and optimal design for regression-based norming of tests and questionnaires.

To prevent mistakes in psychological assessment, the precision of test norms is important. This can be achieved by drawing a large normative sample and using regression-based norming. Based on that norming method, a procedure for sample size planning to make inference on Z-scores and percentile rank scores is proposed. Sampling variance formulas for these norm statistics are derived and used to obtain the optimal design, that is, the optimal predictor distribution, for the normative sample, thereby maximizing precision of estimation. This is done under five regression models with a quantitative and a categorical predictor, differing in whether they allow for interaction and nonlinearity. Efficient robust designs are given in case of uncertainty about the regression model. Furthermore, formulas are provided to compute the normative sample size such that individuals' positions relative to the derived norms can be assessed with prespecified power and precision. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Age-specific associations between underlying health conditions and hospitalisation, death and in-hospital death among confirmed COVID-19 cases: a multi-country study based on surveillance data, June to December 2020.

BackgroundUnderlying conditions are risk factors for severe COVID-19 outcomes but evidence is limited about how risks differ with age.AimWe sought to estimate age-specific associations between underlying conditions and hospitalisation, death and in-hospital death among COVID-19 cases.MethodsWe analysed case-based COVID-19 data submitted to The European Surveillance System between 2 June and 13 December 2020 by nine European countries. Eleven underlying conditions among cases with only one condition and the number of underlying conditions among multimorbid cases were used as exposures. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) were estimated using 39 different age-adjusted and age-interaction multivariable logistic regression models, with marginal means from the latter used to estimate probabilities of severe outcome for each condition-age group combination.ResultsCancer, cardiac disorder, diabetes, immunodeficiency, kidney, liver and lung disease, neurological disorders and obesity were associated with elevated risk (aOR: 1.5-5.6) of hospitalisation and death, after controlling for age, sex, reporting period and country. As age increased, age-specific aOR were lower and predicted probabilities higher. However, for some conditions, predicted probabilities were at least as high in younger individuals with the condition as in older cases without it. In multimorbid patients, the aOR for severe disease increased with number of conditions for all outcomes and in all age groups.ConclusionWhile supporting age-based vaccine roll-out, our findings could inform a more nuanced, age- and condition-specific approach to vaccine prioritisation. This is relevant as countries consider vaccination of younger people, boosters and dosing intervals in response to vaccine escape variants.

Hepatitis of unknown aetiology in children - epidemiological overview of cases reported in Europe, 1 January to 16 June 2022.

Following the report of an excess in paediatric cases of severe acute hepatitis of unknown aetiology by the United Kingdom (UK) on 5 April 2022, 427 cases were reported from 20 countries in the World Health Organization European Region to the European Surveillance System TESSy from 1 January 2022 to 16 June 2022. Here, we analysed demographic, epidemiological, clinical and microbiological data available in TESSy. Of the reported cases, 77.3% were 5 years or younger and 53.5% had a positive test for adenovirus, 10.4% had a positive RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 and 10.3% were coinfected with both pathogens. Cases with adenovirus infections were significantly more likely to be admitted to intensive care or high-dependency units (OR = 2.11; 95% CI: 1.18-3.74) and transplanted (OR = 3.36; 95% CI: 1.19-9.55) than cases with a negative test result for adenovirus, but this was no longer observed when looking at this association separately between the UK and other countries. Aetiological studies are needed to ascertain if adenovirus plays a role in this possible emergence of hepatitis cases in children and, if confirmed, the mechanisms that could be involved.

The Prevalence of Several Risky Driving Behaviors and Associated Crash Risk in Adolescent: A Population-Based Study of Tuscany Region.

Objectives: To evaluate the prevalence of numerous risky driving behaviors (RDBs) and the associated risk of road traffic accidents (RTA) in a population-based sample of adolescent drivers (14-19 years) of Tuscany, Italy. Methods: The frequency of participation -by age and sex- often RDBs were investigated: Multivariable analyses were performed to evaluate the association between RDBs and the risk of RTA and severe RTA. Results: 2,737 adolescents were included in the study. Talking to passenger(s), listening to loud music, speeding, and texting showed the highest weekly participation rates. For all the considered RDBs, the frequency of participation significantly increased with age. Males reported a significantly higher participation in speeding, DUI of alcohol or drugs; while females reported listening to loud music and talking to passenger(s) more frequently. All the considered RDBs were significantly associated with the risk of RTA and severe RTA. Conclusion: The prevalence of RDBs and the associated risk of RTA largely varied in adolescents. Findings provide evidence for tailoring prevention interventions and suggest the need to include common- but traditionally overlooked- RDBs in road safety campaigns.

Trends in Adolescent Health Risk Behaviors and Wellbeing: A 10 Year Observation from the EDIT Surveillance of Tuscany Region, Italy.

Background: The aim of this study was to evaluate the trends of prevalence of health risk behaviors (HRBs) and health conditions over a 10 year period (2008-2018) in a representative sample of adolescents of Tuscany Region, Italy. Methods: This was a repeated cross-sectional (four survey waves) study. The prevalence of 17 HRBs and health conditions were analyzed by age, sex, and socioeconomic status (SES). Results: A total of 21,943 students were surveyed. During the study period, decreases in smoking participation, cocaine use, driving under the influence of alcohol and drugs, and problem gambling were observed, while alcohol abuse and at-risk sexual behaviors remained unchanged or increased. Males resulted more frequently involved in most of the HRBs, while females more frequently reported physical inactivity, regular smoking, and not using a condom. Female participation in smoking and alcohol abuse behaviors, fruit and vegetable consumption, and bullying worsened over the study period. Smoking, poor dietary habits, physical inactivity, high distress level, and obesity were more frequently observed in low-SES students than in high-SES students. Conclusions: The findings showed different tendencies in adolescent participation in HRBs over the last decade; concerning trends in at-risk sexual behaviors and alcohol consumption and females' risk-taking behavior on the rise require careful monitoring.

Initial assessment of the COVID-19 vaccination's impact on case numbers, hospitalisations and deaths in people aged 80 years and older, 15 EU/EEA countries, December 2020 to May 2021.

Prioritisation of elderly people in COVID-19 vaccination campaigns aimed at reducing severe outcomes in this group. Using EU/EEA surveillance and vaccination uptake, we estimated the risk ratio of case, hospitalisation and death notifications in people 80 years and older compared with 25-59-year-olds. Highest impact was observed for full vaccination uptake 80% or higher with reductions in notification rates of cases up to 65% (IRR: 0.35; 95% CI: 0.13-0.99), hospitalisations up to 78% (IRR: 0.22; 95% CI: 0.13-0.37) and deaths up to 84% (IRR: 0.16; 95% CI: 0.13-0.20).

Profiles of Risky Driving Behaviors in Adolescent Drivers: A Cluster Analysis of a Representative Sample from Tuscany Region (Italy).

(1) Background: Research on patterns of risky driving behaviors (RDBs) in adolescents is scarce. This study aims to identify distinctive patterns of RDBs and to explore their characteristics in a representative sample of adolescents. (2) Methods: this is a cross-sectional study of a representative sample of Tuscany Region students aged 14-19 years (n = 2162). The prevalence of 11 RDBs was assessed and a cluster analysis was conducted to identify patterns of RDBs. ANOVA, post hoc pairwise comparisons and multivariate logistic regression models were used to characterize cluster membership. (3) Results: four distinct clusters of drivers were identified based on patterns of RDBs; in particular, two clusters-the Reckless Drivers (11.2%) and the Careless Drivers (21.5%)-showed high-risk patterns of engagement in RDBs. These high-risk clusters exhibited the weakest social bonds, the highest psychological distress, the most frequent participation in health compromising and risky behaviors, and the highest risk of a road traffic accident. (4) Conclusion: findings suggest that it is possible to identify typical profiles of RDBs in adolescents and that risky driving profiles are positively interrelated with other risky behaviors. This clustering suggests the need to develop multicomponent prevention strategies rather than addressing specific RDBs in isolation.

Is composting of packaging real recycling?

In 1994, the European directive on packaging and packaging waste introduced the principle that biodegradable packaging can be recovered together with bio-waste by organic recycling (e.g. composting). Recently, critical voices have been raised against this principle on the basis that packaging does not add nutrients to the compost and is also "lost", i.e. mostly mineralized in CO2 and water. These opinions do not take into account the specificity of composting and are unfounded. The term compost comes from composite. In fact, it is necessary to mix together feedstocks with different biodegradation behaviour and different C/N ratios to start a composting process and obtain quality compost. For example, cellulose is a feedstock at medium biodegradation rate that brings energy and biomass. Energy is needed to heat the compost pile and ensure that the composting process, including pasteurization, takes place without any external energy source. On the other hand, lignin is quite recalcitrant, brings no energy to the process and forms the basic structure of compost. Cellulose does not contain nitrogen, but it is the most relevant feedstock in composting. Likewise, packaging is nitrogen-free and can be equated with cellulose in terms of biodegradation behaviour and role in the composting process. In fact, biodegradability of packaging is assessed by using cellulose as the reference material. A compostable packaging, whether based on cellulose-fibres (paper, cardboard) or based on biodegradable plastics behaves similarly to other composting feedstock and contributes to the composting process and to the production of good quality compost.

Optimal two-stage sampling for mean estimation in multilevel populations when cluster size is informative.

To estimate the mean of a quantitative variable in a hierarchical population, it is logistically convenient to sample in two stages (two-stage sampling), i.e. selecting first clusters, and then individuals from the sampled clusters. Allowing cluster size to vary in the population and to be related to the mean of the outcome variable of interest (informative cluster size), the following competing sampling designs are considered: sampling clusters with probability proportional to cluster size, and then the same number of individuals per cluster; drawing clusters with equal probability, and then the same percentage of individuals per cluster; and selecting clusters with equal probability, and then the same number of individuals per cluster. For each design, optimal sample sizes are derived under a budget constraint. The three optimal two-stage sampling designs are compared, in terms of efficiency, with each other and with simple random sampling of individuals. Sampling clusters with probability proportional to size is recommended. To overcome the dependency of the optimal design on unknown nuisance parameters, maximin designs are derived. The results are illustrated, assuming probability proportional to size sampling of clusters, with the planning of a hypothetical survey to compare adolescent alcohol consumption between France and Italy.

Invasive Pneumococcal Disease in Tuscany Region, Italy, 2016-2017: Integrating Multiple Data Sources to Investigate Underreporting.

Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) is a vaccine-preventable disease characterized by the presence of Streptococcus pneumoniae in normally sterile sites. Since 2007, Italy has implemented an IPD national surveillance system (IPD-NSS). This system suffers from high rates of underreporting. To estimate the level of underreporting of IPD in 2016-2017 in Tuscany (Italy), we integrated data from IPD-NSS and two other regional data sources, i.e., Tuscany regional microbiological surveillance (Microbiological Surveillance and Antibiotic Resistance in Tuscany, SMART) and hospitalization discharge records (HDRs). We collected (1) notifications to IPD-NSS, (2) SMART records positive for S. pneumoniae from normally sterile sites, and (3) hospitalization records with IPD-related International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD9) codes in discharge diagnoses. We performed data linkage of the three sources to obtain a combined surveillance system (CSS). Using the CSS, we calculated the completeness of the three sources and performed a three-source log-linear capture-recapture analysis to estimate total IPD underreporting. In total, 127 IPD cases were identified from IPD-NSS, 320 were identified from SMART, and 658 were identified from HDRs. After data linkage, a total of 904 unique cases were detected. The average yearly CSS notification rate was 12.1/100,000 inhabitants. Completeness was 14.0% for IPD-NSS, 35.4% for SMART, and 72.8% for HDRs. The capture-recapture analysis suggested a total estimate of 3419 cases of IPD (95% confidence interval (CI): 1364-5474), corresponding to an underreporting rate of 73.7% (95% CI: 34.0-83.6) for CSS. This study shows substantial underreporting in the Tuscany IPD surveillance system. Integration of available data sources may be a useful approach to complement notification-based surveillance and provide decision-makers with better information to plan effective control strategies against IPD.

In vitro differentiation of cGMP-grade retinal pigmented epithelium from human embryonic stem cells.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the number of individuals who lose their vision due to retinal degeneration is expected to reach 6 million annually in 2020. The retinal degenerative diseases affect the macula, which is responsible for central and detailed vision. Most macular degeneration, i.e., age-related macular degeneration (AMD) develops in the elderly; however, certain hereditary diseases, such as the Stargardt disease, also affect young people. This degeneration begins with loss of retinal pigmented epithelium (RPE) due to formation of drusen (atrophic) or abnormal vessels (exudative). In wet AMD, numerous drugs are available to successful treat the disease; however, no proven therapy currently is available to treat dry AMD or Stargardt. Since its discovery, human embryonic stem cells (hESCs) have been considered a valuable therapeutic tool. Some evidence has shown that transplantation of RPEs differentiated from hESCs cells can result in recovery of both RPE and photoreceptors and prevent visual loss. METHODS: The human embryonic WA-09 stem cell lineage was cultured under current Good Manufacturing Practices (cGMP) conditions using serum-free media and supplements. The colonies were isolated manually and allowed to spontaneously differentiate into RPE cells. RESULTS: This simple and effective protocol required minimal manipulation and yielded more than 10e8 RPE cells by the end of the differentiation and enrichment processes, with cells exhibiting a cobblestone morphology and displaying cellular markers and a gene expression profile typical of mature RPE cells. Moreover, the differentiated cells displayed phagocytic activity and only a small percentage of the total cells remained positive for the Octamer-binding transcriptions factor 4 (OCT-4) pluripotency cell marker. CONCLUSIONS: These results showed that functional RPE cells can be produced efficiently and suggested the possibility of scaling-up to aim at therapeutic protocols for retinal diseases associated with RPE degeneration.

Carriage rates and risk factors during an outbreak of invasive meningococcal disease due to Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C ST-11 (cc11) in Tuscany, Italy: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: During 2015-2016 an outbreak of invasive meningococcal disease due to N. meningitidis serogroup C ST-11 (cc11) occurred in Tuscany, Italy. The outbreak affected mainly the age group 20-30 years, men who have sex with men, and the area located between the cities of Firenze, Prato and Empoli, with discos and gay-venues associated-clusters. A cross-sectional-survey was conducted to assess the prevalence and risk factors for meningococcal-carriage, in order to address public health interventions. METHODS: A convenience sample of people aged 11-45 years provided oropharyngeal swab specimens and completed questionnaires on risk factors for meningococcal carriage during a 3 months study-period, conducted either in the outbreak-area and in a control-area not affected by the outbreak (cities of Grosseto and Siena). Isolates were tested by culture plus polymerase chain reaction. Serogroup C meningococcal isolates were further characterized using multilocus sequence typing. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to estimate adjusted odds ratios (AORs) for meningococcal carriage. RESULTS: A total of 2285 oropharyngeal samples were collected. Overall, meningococcal carriage prevalence was 4.8% (n = 110), with nonencapsulated meningococci most prevalent (2.3%; n = 52). Among encapsulated meningococci, serogroup B was the most prevalent (1.8%; n = 41), followed by serogroup Y (0.5%; n = 11) and serogroup C (0.2%; n = 4); one carrier of serogroup E and one of serogroup Z, were also found (0.04%). Three individuals from the city of Empoli were found to carry the outbreak strain, C:ST-11 (cc11); this city also had the highest serogroup C carriage prevalence (0.5%). At the multivariate analyses, risk factors for meningococcal carriage were: illicit-drugs consumption (AOR 6.30; p < 0.01), active smoking (AOR 2.78; p = 0.01), disco/clubs/parties attendance (AOR 2.06; p = 0.04), being aged 20-30 years (AOR 3.08; p < 0.01), and have had same-sex intercourses (AOR 6.69; p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: A low prevalence of meningococcal serogroup C carriage in an area affected by an outbreak due to the hypervirulent N. meningitidis serogroup C ST-11 (cc11) strain was found. The city of Empoli had the highest attack-rate during the outbreak and also the highest meningococcal serogroup C carriage-prevalence due to the outbreak-strain. Multivariate analyses underlined a convergence of risk factors, which partially confirmed those observed among meningococcal outbreak-cases, and that should be considered in targeted immunization campaigns.

Relative efficiencies of two-stage sampling schemes for mean estimation in multilevel populations when cluster size is informative.

In multilevel populations, there are two types of population means of an outcome variable ie, the average of all individual outcomes ignoring cluster membership and the average of cluster-specific means. To estimate the first mean, individuals can be sampled directly with simple random sampling or with two-stage sampling (TSS), that is, sampling clusters first, and then individuals within the sampled clusters. When cluster size varies in the population, three TSS schemes can be considered, ie, sampling clusters with probability proportional to cluster size and then sampling the same number of individuals per cluster; sampling clusters with equal probability and then sampling the same percentage of individuals per cluster; and sampling clusters with equal probability and then sampling the same number of individuals per cluster. Unbiased estimation of the average of all individual outcomes is discussed under each sampling scheme assuming cluster size to be informative. Furthermore, the three TSS schemes are compared in terms of efficiency with each other and with simple random sampling under the constraint of a fixed total sample size. The relative efficiency of the sampling schemes is shown to vary across different cluster size distributions. However, sampling clusters with probability proportional to size is the most efficient TSS scheme for many cluster size distributions. Model-based and design-based inference are compared and are shown to give similar results. The results are applied to the distribution of high school size in Italy and the distribution of patient list size for general practices in England.

Interconnected clusters of invasive meningococcal disease due to Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C ST-11 (cc11), involving bisexuals and men who have sex with men, with discos and gay-venues hotspots of transmission, Tuscany, Italy, 2015 to 2016.

In 2015 an increased incidence of invasive meningococcal disease due to serogroup-C (MenC) occurred in Tuscany, Italy. This led the Regional Health Authority of Tuscany to implement a reactive immunisation campaign and to launch an epidemiological field investigation aiming to address targeted immunisation interventions. In 2011-14, 10 MenC cases had been reported compared with 62 cases in 2015-16. The case fatality rate was 21% (n = 13) and 51 cases (82.3%) were confirmed as C:P1.5-1,10-8:F3-6:ST-11(cc11). Overall, 17 clusters were recognised. Six discos and four gay-venues were found to have a role as transmission-hotspots, having been attended by 20 and 14 cases in the 10 days before symptoms onset. Ten and three cases occurred, respectively, among men who have sex with men (MSM) and bisexual individuals, who were involved in 11 clusters. In addition, heterosexual cases (n = 5) attending gay-venues were also found. Secondary cases were not identified. Molecular typing indicated close relationship with MenC clusters recently described among gay, bisexual and other MSM in Europe and the United States, suggesting a possible international spread of the serogroup-C-variant P1.5-1,10-8:F3-6:ST-11(cc11) in this population-group; however, epidemiological links were not identified. In December 2016, a targeted vaccination campaign involving discos and lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) associations was implemented. During 2017, 10 cases of MenC occurred, compared with 32 and 30 cases reported in 2015 and 2016 respectively, suggesting the effectiveness of the reactive and targeted immunisation programmes.