Accounting for misclassified and unknown cause of death data in vital registration systems for estimating trends in HIV mortality.

INTRODUCTION: Misclassification of HIV deaths can substantially diminish the usefulness of cause of death data for decision-making. In this study, we describe the methods developed by the Global Burden of Disease Study to account for the misclassified cause of death data from vital registration systems for estimating HIV mortality in 132 countries and territories. METHODS: The cause of death data were obtained from the World Health Organization Mortality Database and official country-specific mortality databases. We implemented two steps to adjust the raw cause of death data: (1) redistributing garbage codes to underlying causes of death, including HIV/AIDS by applying methods, such as analysis of multiple cause data and proportional redistribution, and (2) reassigning HIV deaths misclassified as other causes to HIV/AIDS by examining the age patterns of underlying causes in location and years with and without HIV epidemics. RESULTS: In 132 countries, during the period from 1990 to 2018, 1,848,761 deaths were reported as caused by HIV/AIDS. After garbage code redistribution in these 132 countries, this number increased to 4,165,015 deaths. An additional 1,944,291 deaths were added through correction of HIV deaths misclassified as other causes in 44 countries. The proportion of HIV deaths derived from garbage code redistribution decreased over time, from 0.4 in 1990 to 0.1 in 2018. The proportion of deaths derived from HIV misclassification correction peaked at 0.4 in 2006 and declined afterwards to 0.08 in 2018. The greatest contributors to garbage code redistribution were "immunodeficiency antibody" (ICD 9: 279-279.1; ICD 10: D80-D80.9) and "immunodeficiency other" (ICD 9: 279, 279.5-279.9; ICD 10: D83-D84.9, D89, D89.8-D89.9), which together contributed 77% of all redistributed deaths at their peak in 1995. Respiratory tuberculosis (ICD 9: 010-012.9; ICD 10: A10-A14, A15-A16.9) contributed the greatest proportion of all HIV misclassified deaths (25-62% per year) over the most years. CONCLUSIONS: Correcting for miscoding and misclassification of cause of death data can enhance the utility of the data for analyzing trends in HIV mortality and tracking progress toward the Sustainable Development Goal targets.

Incidence of HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2015: The Interplay Between Social Determinants and Behavioral Risk Factors.

HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa declined substantially between 2000 and 2015. In this analysis, we consider the relative associations of nine structural and individual determinants with this decline. A linear mixed effects model of logged HIV incidence rates versus determinants was used. The data were from mathematical modelling as part of the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study in 43 sub-Saharan African countries. We used forwards selection to determine a single final model of HIV incidence rate. The association of economic variables and HIV knowledge with incidence was found to be driven by education, while ART coverage had the largest impact on other determinants' coefficients. In the final model, education years per capita contributed the most to explaining variation in HIV incidence rates; a 1-year increase in mean education years was associated with a 0.39 (- 0.56; - 0.2, t = - 4.48 p < 0.01) % decline in incidence rate while a unit increase in ART coverage was associated with a 0.81 (- 1.34; - 0.28, t = - 3.01, p < 0.01) % decline in incidence rate.

The Impact of Multiple Rounds of Indoor Residual Spraying on Malaria Incidence and Hemoglobin Levels in a High-Transmission Setting.

BACKGROUND: Indoor residual spraying (IRS) is widely used as a vector control measure, although there are conflicting findings of its effectiveness in reducing malaria incidence. The objective of this study was to estimate the effect of multiple IRS rounds on malaria incidence and hemoglobin levels in a cohort of children in rural southeastern Uganda. METHODS: The study was based upon a dynamic cohort of children aged 0.5-10 years enrolled from August 2011 to June 2017 in Nagongera Subcounty. Confirmed malaria infections and hemoglobin levels were recorded over time for each participant. After each of 4 rounds of IRS, malaria incidence, hemoglobin levels, and parasite density were evaluated and compared with pre-IRS levels. Analyses were carried out at the participant level while accounting for repeated measures and clustering by household. RESULTS: Incidence rate ratios comparing post-IRS to pre-IRS incidence rates for age groups 0-3, 3-5, and 5-11 were 0.108 (95% confidence interval [CI], .078-.149), 0.173 (95% CI, .136-.222), and 0.226 (95% CI, .187-.274), respectively. The mean hemoglobin levels significantly increased from 11.01 (pre-IRS) to 12.18 g/dL (post-IRS). CONCLUSIONS: Our study supports the policy recommendation of IRS usage in a stable and perennial transmission area to rapidly reduce malaria transmission.

The Impact of Parental and Medical Leave Policies on Socioeconomic and Health Outcomes in OECD Countries: A Systematic Review of the Empirical Literature.

Policy Points: Historically, reforms that have increased the duration of job-protected paid parental leave have improved women's economic outcomes. By targeting the period around childbirth, access to paid parental leave also appears to reduce rates of infant mortality, with breastfeeding representing one potential mechanism. The provision of more generous paid leave entitlements in countries that offer unpaid or short durations of paid leave could help families strike a balance between the competing demands of earning income and attending to personal and family well-being. CONTEXT: Policies legislating paid leave from work for new parents, and to attend to individual and family illness, are common across Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. However, there exists no comprehensive review of their potential impacts on economic, social, and health outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of the peer-reviewed literature on paid leave and socioeconomic and health outcomes. We reviewed 5,538 abstracts and selected 85 published papers on the impact of parental leave policies, 22 papers on the impact of medical leave policies, and 2 papers that evaluated both types of policies. We synthesized the main findings through a narrative description; a meta-analysis was precluded by heterogeneity in policy attributes, policy changes, outcomes, and study designs. FINDINGS: We were able to draw several conclusions about the impact of parental leave policies. First, extensions in the duration of paid parental leave to between 6 and 12 months were accompanied by attendant increases in leave-taking and longer durations of leave. Second, there was little evidence that extending the duration of paid leave had negative employment or economic consequences. Third, unpaid leave does not appear to confer the same benefits as paid leave. Fourth, from a population health perspective, increases in paid parental leave were consistently associated with better infant and child health, particularly in terms of lower mortality rates. Fifth, paid paternal leave policies of adequate length and generosity have induced fathers to take additional time off from work following the birth of a child. How medical leave policies for personal or family illness influence health has not been widely studied. CONCLUSIONS: There is substantial quasi-experimental evidence to support expansions in the duration of job-protected paid parental leave as an instrument for supporting women's labor force participation, safeguarding women's incomes and earnings, and improving child survival. This has implications, in particular, for countries that offer shorter durations of job-protected paid leave or lack a national paid leave entitlement altogether.

Region-level obesity projections and an examination of its correlates in Quebec.

OBJECTIVES: Regional public health policy-makers frequently adopt obesity programs and objectives that have been established at global, provincial/state or national levels. However, the presence of substantial inter-regional disparities could render this practice inefficient. Studies that collectively assess obesity prevalence, temporal trends and their heterogeneity at the region level are rare, though they could be used to support better regional surveillance and planning. To address this gap, our study projected obesity prevalence time series to 2023 for 16 health regions in Quebec. We also compared the extent to which yearly rates of increase (or slope) versus cross-sectional prevalence drove regional heterogeneity and correlated with obesity-related sociodemographic and behavioural characteristics. METHODS: Projections were done using weighted compositional regression to fit and extrapolate obesity prevalence time series (1987-2012). Heterogeneity in obesity prevalence as a function of time and obesity slope were characterized using standard deviation. The correlation of region-level obesity prevalence and slope with 14 area-level obesity-related characteristics was assessed. RESULTS: Obesity prevalence is projected to increase in all regions. Region-level heterogeneity in prevalence in 2012 (σ = 2.2%) is projected to increase to (σ = 3.1%) by 2023. The increase in prevalence heterogeneity appeared to be driven by region-level heterogeneity in slope (ß = 0.22%-0.51%/year). Obesity-related characteristics were found to be more strongly correlated with slope than with prevalence. CONCLUSION: Large area obesity trends mask substantial and increasing region-level disparities. Obesity slope appears to drive region-level heterogeneity and correlate strongly with explanatory factors, and may represent a pertinent metric for public health monitoring.

The effect of paid maternity leave on early childhood growth in low-income and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Despite recent improvements, low height-for-age, a key indicator of inadequate child nutrition, is an ongoing public health issue in low-income and middle-income countries. Paid maternity leave has the potential to improve child nutrition, but few studies have estimated its impact. METHODS: We used data from 583 227 children younger than 5 years in 37 countries surveyed as part of the Demographic and Health Surveys (2000-2014) to compare the change in children's height-for-age z score in five countries that increased their legislated duration of paid maternity leave (Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Bangladesh and Lesotho) relative to 32 other countries that did not. A quasiexperimental difference-in-difference design involving a linear regression of height-for-age z score on the number of weeks of legislated paid maternity leave was used. We included fixed effects for country and birth year to control for, respectively, fixed country characteristics and shared trends in height-for-age, and adjusted for time-varying covariates such as gross domestic product per capita and the female labour force participation rate. RESULTS: The mean height-for-age z scores in the pretreatment period were -1.91 (SD=1.44) and -1.47 (SD=1.57) in countries that did and did not change their policies, respectively. The scores increased in treated and control countries over time. A 1-month increase in legislated paid maternity leave was associated with a decrease of 0.08(95% CI -0.20 to 0.04) in child height-for-age z score. Sensitivity analyses did not support a robust association between paid maternity leave policies and height-for-age z score. CONCLUSION: We found little evidence that recent changes in legislated paid maternity leave have been sufficient to affect child height-for-age z scores. The relatively short durations of leave, the potential for low coverage and the strong increasing trend in children's growth may explain our findings. Future studies considering longer durations or combined interventions may reveal further insight to support policy.

If patient-reported outcome measures are considered key health-care quality indicators, who is excluded from participation?

Patient-reported outcome measures have received increasing attention with regard to ensuring quality improvement across the health service. However, there is a risk that people with disabilities and low literacy are systematically excluded from the development of these measures as well as their application in clinical practice. This editorial highlights some of these risks and the potential consequences of exclusion for these groups.

The Future of Public Health: A Horizon Scan.

Public Health England (PHE) commissioned RAND Europe to undertake a horizon scanning study exploring the future of public health and related scientific services. This work was intended to help inform thinking at the strategic level within PHE, firstly in relation to the wider vision of the Agency (which was only established in April 2013) and, secondly, in relation to the proposals for the creation of an integrated public health science hub. The study is based on a literature review, a brief Delphi exercise using the ExpertLens platform and key informant interviews with a range of PHE staff and external experts. It focuses on the different future public health science needs and the extent to which an integrated science hub could serve PHE as it evolves over the next twenty years. Thus, the study considers PHE's future remit and objectives in order that decisions about an integrated and co-located science hub be made in context and with reference to expert perceptions about the future.

Patient-reported outcome measures for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease : the exclusion of people with low literacy skills and learning disabilities.

BACKGROUND: Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) are intended to reflect outcomes relevant to patients. They are increasingly used for healthcare quality improvement. To produce valid measures, patients should be involved in the development process but it is unclear whether this usually includes people with low literacy skills or learning disabilities. This potential exclusion raises concerns about whether these groups will be able to use these measures and participate in quality improvement practices. METHODS: Taking PROMs for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) as an exemplar condition, our review determined the inclusion of people with low literacy skills and learning disabilities in research developing, validating, and using 12 PROMs for COPD patients. The studies included in our review were based on those identified in two existing systematic reviews and our update of this search. RESULTS: People with low literacy skills and/or learning disabilities were excluded from the development of PROMs in two ways: explicitly through the participant eligibility criteria and, more commonly, implicitly through recruitment or administration methods that would require high-level reading and cognitive abilities. None of the studies mentioned efforts to include people with low literacy skills or learning disabilities. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that people with low literacy skills or learning disabilities are left out of the development of PROMs. Given that implicit exclusion was most common, researchers and those who administer PROMs may not even be aware of this problem. Without effort to improve inclusion, unequal quality improvement practices may become embedded in the health system.

Using patient reported outcome measures in health services: a qualitative study on including people with low literacy skills and learning disabilities.

BACKGROUND: Patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) are self-report measures of health status increasingly promoted for use in healthcare quality improvement. However people with low literacy skills or learning disabilities may find PROMs hard to complete. Our study investigated stakeholder views on the accessibility and use of PROMs to develop suggestions for more inclusive practice. METHODS: Taking PROMs recommended for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) as an example, we conducted 8 interviews with people with low literacy skills and/or learning disabilities, and 4 focus groups with 20 health professionals and people with COPD. Discussions covered the format and delivery of PROMs using the EQ-5D and St George Respiratory Questionnaire as prompts. Thematic framework analysis focused on three main themes: Accessibility, Ease of Use, and Contextual factors. RESULTS: Accessibility included issues concerning the questionnaire format, and suggestions for improvement included larger font sizes and more white space. Ease of Use included discussion about PROMs' administration. While health professionals suggested PROMs could be completed in waiting rooms, patients preferred settings with more privacy and where they could access help from people they know. Contextual Factors included other challenges and wider issues associated with completing PROMs. While health professionals highlighted difficulties created by the system in managing patients with low literacy/learning disabilities, patient participants stressed that understanding the purpose of PROMs was important to reduce intimidation. CONCLUSIONS: Adjusting PROMs' format, giving an explicit choice of where patients can complete them, and clearly conveying PROMs' purpose and benefit to patients may help to prevent inequality when using PROMs in health services.