Fertility and partnership status in the last two decades.

The family context in which babies are born is of continuing interest to policy makers. This article begins by reviewing trends in births within and outside marriage in England and Wales in the last two decades. It then examines the driving factors behind the ongoing rise in the proportion of births outside marriage, with particular focus on the proportion of married women of childbearing age, and changes in marital and non-marital fertility rates. Given the variety of modern living arrangements into which children are born, the emphasis of the article then shifts to non-marital births within cohabiting partnerships. For the first time estimates of fertility for cohabiting women of different ages are presented. These are based on information collected at birth registration and survey estimates of the cohabiting population. Fertility rates for cohabiting women are then compared with those of married women and other (non-married, non-cohabiting) women. Although there are limitations to the methodology, the article shows that over the past two decades, cohabiting women in England and Wales have had an overall level of fertility below that of married women but considerably above that of other unmarried women.

Have national trends in fertility between 1986 and 2006 occurred evenly across England and Wales?

During the past 20 years fertility patterns within England and Wales have changed considerably. The total fertility rate experienced a prolonged decline during the 1990s and hit a record low in 2001. Since then the level of fertility has increased fairly rapidly. Over the two decades, fertility has been constantly increasing at ages above 30, and as a consequence the mean age of motherhood has been rising. This article explores fertility trends within statistical regions and local authorities to improve our understanding of changes in fertility at the subnational level between 1986 and 2006.

Fertility assumptions for the 2006-based national population projections.

Fertility is one of the key components of the national population projections, alongside mortality and migration. For the 2006-based population projections, long-term completed family size in the U.K. is assumed to be 1.84 children per woman. This represents an increase of 0.10 on the assumption of 1.74 children per woman used in the 2004-based round. Although the U.K's long-term fertilit assumption has been lowered several time in recent years, this is the first time it has been raised since the 1960s baby boom. This article outlines why ONS decided to raise the long-term fertility assumptio for all four U.K. countries in the 2006-based population projections

Population bases and statistical provision: towards a more flexible future?

In an increasingly complex and mobile society, there is a need for population estimates to be produced on a more flexible basis. Different uses of population data may require information to be output on different population bases, such as where people usually live ('usual residence') or where they are on a particular day ('population present'). This article explores many of the issues associated with defining 'the population'. Following consultation with data users, it outlines recommended population definitions that could facilitate a more flexible approach. Comparisons are made between the output bases produced from the 2001 Census and the more adaptable outputs potentially available in future if the recommended definitions were used.

Family building intentions in England and Wales: trends, outcomes and interpretations.

This article presents and analyses women's childbearing intentions collected in the General Household Survey (GHS). Data from the 21 surveys from 1979 to 2001 show that over that period there has been a fall in women's intended numbers of births. However the latest data (from the 1998, 2000 and 2001 surveys) show that the average number of children intended is still around two, somewhat higher than the average number of children current fertility rates suggest women will have. The questions of whether this difference can be interpreted as possible unmet need for children, whether past intentions have been good predictors of fertility, and how current intentions may be used to inform projections assumptions are discussed. In relation to the last question, fertility intentions by ethnic group are also presented.