Machine learning models for diagnosis and risk prediction in eating disorders, depression, and alcohol use disorder.

This study uses machine learning models to uncover diagnostic and risk prediction markers for eating disorders (EDs), major depressive disorder (MDD), and alcohol use disorder (AUD). Utilizing case-control samples (ages 18-25 years) and a longitudinal population-based sample (n=1,851), the models, incorporating diverse data domains, achieved high accuracy in classifying EDs, MDD, and AUD from healthy controls. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC-ROC [95% CI]) reached 0.92 [0.86-0.97] for AN and 0.91 [0.85-0.96] for BN, without relying on body mass index as a predictor. The classification accuracies for MDD (0.91 [0.88-0.94]) and AUD (0.80 [0.74-0.85]) were also high. Each data domain emerged as accurate classifiers individually, with personality distinguishing AN, BN, and their controls with AUC-ROCs ranging from 0.77 to 0.89. The models demonstrated high transdiagnostic potential, as those trained for EDs were also accurate in classifying AUD and MDD from healthy controls, and vice versa (AUC-ROCs, 0.75-0.93). Shared predictors, such as neuroticism, hopelessness, and symptoms of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, were identified as reliable classifiers. For risk prediction in the longitudinal population sample, the models exhibited moderate performance (AUC-ROCs, 0.64-0.71), highlighting the potential of combining multi-domain data for precise diagnostic and risk prediction applications in psychiatry.

Neuroanatomical markers of psychotic experiences in adolescents: A machine-learning approach in a longitudinal population-based sample.

It is important to identify accurate markers of psychiatric illness to aid early prediction of disease course. Subclinical psychotic experiences (PEs) are important risk factors for later mental ill-health and suicidal behaviour. This study used machine learning to investigate neuroanatomical markers of PEs in early and later stages of adolescence. Machine learning using logistic regression using Elastic Net regularization was applied to T1-weighted and diffusion MRI data to classify adolescents with subclinical psychotic experiences vs. controls across 3 timepoints (Time 1:11-13 years, n = 77; Time 2:14-16 years, n = 56; Time 3:18-20 years, n = 40). Neuroimaging data classified adolescents aged 11-13 years with current PEs vs. controls returning an AROC of 0.62, significantly better than a null model, p = 1.73e-29. Neuroimaging data also classified those with PEs at 18-20 years (AROC = 0.59;P = 7.19e-10) but performance was at chance level at 14-16 years (AROC = 0.50). Left hemisphere frontal regions were top discriminant classifiers for 11-13 years-old adolescents with PEs, particularly pars opercularis. Those with future PEs at 18-20 years-old were best distinguished from controls based on left frontal regions, right-hemisphere medial lemniscus, cingulum bundle, precuneus and genu of the corpus callosum (CC). Deviations from normal adolescent brain development in young people with PEs included an acceleration in the typical pattern of reduction in left frontal thickness and right parietal curvature, and accelerated progression of microstructural changes in right white matter and corpus callosum. These results emphasise the importance of multi-modal analysis for understanding adolescent PEs and provide important new insights into early phenotypes for psychotic experiences.

Stress-primed secretory autophagy promotes extracellular BDNF maturation by enhancing MMP9 secretion.

The stress response is an essential mechanism for maintaining homeostasis, and its disruption is implicated in several psychiatric disorders. On the cellular level, stress activates, among other mechanisms, autophagy that regulates homeostasis through protein degradation and recycling. Secretory autophagy is a recently described pathway in which autophagosomes fuse with the plasma membrane rather than with lysosomes. Here, we demonstrate that glucocorticoid-mediated stress enhances secretory autophagy via the stress-responsive co-chaperone FK506-binding protein 51. We identify the matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP9) as one of the proteins secreted in response to stress. Using cellular assays and in vivo microdialysis, we further find that stress-enhanced MMP9 secretion increases the cleavage of pro-brain-derived neurotrophic factor (proBDNF) to its mature form (mBDNF). BDNF is essential for adult synaptic plasticity and its pathway is associated with major depression and posttraumatic stress disorder. These findings unravel a cellular stress adaptation mechanism that bears the potential of opening avenues for the understanding of the pathophysiology of stress-related disorders.

Embracing diversity and inclusivity in an academic setting: Insights from the Organization for Human Brain Mapping.

Scientific research aims to bring forward innovative ideas and constantly challenges existing knowledge structures and stereotypes. However, women, ethnic and cultural minorities, as well as individuals with disabilities, are systematically discriminated against or even excluded from promotions, publications, and general visibility. A more diverse workforce is more productive, and thus discrimination has a negative impact on science and the wider society, as well as on the education, careers, and well-being of individuals who are discriminated against. Moreover, the lack of diversity at scientific gatherings can lead to micro-aggressions or harassment, making such meetings unpleasant, or even unsafe environments for early career and underrepresented scientists. At the Organization for Human Brain Mapping (OHBM), we recognized the need for promoting underrepresented scientists and creating diverse role models in the field of neuroimaging. To foster this, the OHBM has created a Diversity and Inclusivity Committee (DIC). In this article, we review the composition and activities of the DIC that have promoted diversity within OHBM, in order to inspire other organizations to implement similar initiatives. Activities of the committee over the past four years have included (a) creating a code of conduct, (b) providing diversity and inclusivity education for OHBM members, (c) organizing interviews and symposia on diversity issues, and (d) organizing family-friendly activities and providing childcare grants during the OHBM annual meetings. We strongly believe that these activities have brought positive change within the wider OHBM community, improving inclusivity and fostering diversity while promoting rigorous, ground-breaking science. These positive changes could not have been so rapidly implemented without the enthusiastic support from the leadership, including OHBM Council and Program Committee, and the OHBM Special Interest Groups (SIGs), namely the Open Science, Student and Postdoc, and Brain-Art SIGs. Nevertheless, there remains ample room for improvement, in all areas, and even more so in the area of targeted attempts to increase inclusivity for women, individuals with disabilities, members of the LGBTQ+ community, racial/ethnic minorities, and individuals of lower socioeconomic status or from low and middle-income countries. Here, we present an overview of the DIC's composition, its activities, future directions and challenges. Our goal is to share our experiences with a wider audience to provide information to other organizations and institutions wishing to implement similar comprehensive diversity initiatives. We propose that scientific organizations can push the boundaries of scientific progress only by moving beyond existing power structures and by integrating principles of equity and inclusivity in their core values.

Brain-predicted age difference score is related to specific cognitive functions: a multi-site replication analysis.

Brain-predicted age difference scores are calculated by subtracting chronological age from 'brain' age, which is estimated using neuroimaging data. Positive scores reflect accelerated ageing and are associated with increased mortality risk and poorer physical function. To date, however, the relationship between brain-predicted age difference scores and specific cognitive functions has not been systematically examined using appropriate statistical methods. First, applying machine learning to 1359 T1-weighted MRI scans, we predicted the relationship between chronological age and voxel-wise grey matter data. This model was then applied to MRI data from three independent datasets, significantly predicting chronological age in each dataset: Dokuz Eylül University (n = 175), the Cognitive Reserve/Reference Ability Neural Network study (n = 380), and The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (n = 487). Each independent dataset had rich neuropsychological data. Brain-predicted age difference scores were significantly negatively correlated with performance on measures of general cognitive status (two datasets); processing speed, visual attention, and cognitive flexibility (three datasets); visual attention and cognitive flexibility (two datasets); and semantic verbal fluency (two datasets). As such, there is firm evidence of correlations between increased brain-predicted age differences and reduced cognitive function in some domains that are implicated in cognitive ageing.

The biological classification of mental disorders (BeCOME) study: a protocol for an observational deep-phenotyping study for the identification of biological subtypes.

BACKGROUND: A major research finding in the field of Biological Psychiatry is that symptom-based categories of mental disorders map poorly onto dysfunctions in brain circuits or neurobiological pathways. Many of the identified (neuro) biological dysfunctions are "transdiagnostic", meaning that they do not reflect diagnostic boundaries but are shared by different ICD/DSM diagnoses. The compromised biological validity of the current classification system for mental disorders impedes rather than supports the development of treatments that not only target symptoms but also the underlying pathophysiological mechanisms. The Biological Classification of Mental Disorders (BeCOME) study aims to identify biology-based classes of mental disorders that improve the translation of novel biomedical findings into tailored clinical applications. METHODS: BeCOME intends to include at least 1000 individuals with a broad spectrum of affective, anxiety and stress-related mental disorders as well as 500 individuals unaffected by mental disorders. After a screening visit, all participants undergo in-depth phenotyping procedures and omics assessments on two consecutive days. Several validated paradigms (e.g., fear conditioning, reward anticipation, imaging stress test, social reward learning task) are applied to stimulate a response in a basic system of human functioning (e.g., acute threat response, reward processing, stress response or social reward learning) that plays a key role in the development of affective, anxiety and stress-related mental disorders. The response to this stimulation is then read out across multiple levels. Assessments comprise genetic, molecular, cellular, physiological, neuroimaging, neurocognitive, psychophysiological and psychometric measurements. The multilevel information collected in BeCOME will be used to identify data-driven biologically-informed categories of mental disorders using cluster analytical techniques. DISCUSSION: The novelty of BeCOME lies in the dynamic in-depth phenotyping and omics characterization of individuals with mental disorders from the depression and anxiety spectrum of varying severity. We believe that such biology-based subclasses of mental disorders will serve as better treatment targets than purely symptom-based disease entities, and help in tailoring the right treatment to the individual patient suffering from a mental disorder. BeCOME has the potential to contribute to a novel taxonomy of mental disorders that integrates the underlying pathomechanisms into diagnoses. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Retrospectively registered on June 12, 2019 on ClinicalTrials.gov (TRN: NCT03984084).

Inhibitory-control event-related potentials correlate with individual differences in alcohol use.

Impulsivity is a multidimensional construct that is related to different aspects of alcohol use, abuse, and dependence. Inhibitory control, one facet of impulsivity, can be assayed using the stop-signal task (SST) and quantified behaviorally via the stop-signal reaction time (SSRT) and electrophysiologically using event-related potentials (ERPs). Research on the relationship between alcohol use and SSRTs, and between alcohol use and inhibitory-control ERPs, is mixed. Here, adult alcohol users (n = 79), with a wide range of scores on the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT), completed the SST under electroencephalography (EEG) (70% of participants had AUDIT total scores greater than or equal to 8). Other measures, including demographic, self-report, and task-based measures of impulsivity, personality, and psychological factors, were also recorded. A machine-learning method with penalized linear regression was used to correlate individual differences in alcohol use with impulsivity measures. Four separate models were tested, with out-of-sample validation used to quantify performance. ERPs alone statistically predicted alcohol use (cross-validated r = 0.28), with both early and late ERP components contributing to the model (larger N2, but smaller P3, amplitude). Behavioral data from a wide range of impulsivity measures were also associated with alcohol use (r = 0.37). SSRT was a relatively weak statistical predictor, whereas the Stroop interference effect was relatively strong. The addition of nonimpulsivity behavioral measures did not improve the correlation (r = 0.34) and was similar when ERPs were combined with non-ERP data (r = 0.29). These findings show that inhibitory control ERPs are robustly correlated individual differences in alcohol use.

Quantifying performance of machine learning methods for neuroimaging data.

Machine learning is increasingly being applied to neuroimaging data. However, most machine learning algorithms have not been designed to accommodate neuroimaging data, which typically has many more data points than subjects, in addition to multicollinearity and low signal-to-noise. Consequently, the relative efficacy of different machine learning regression algorithms for different types of neuroimaging data are not known. Here, we sought to quantify the performance of a variety of machine learning algorithms for use with neuroimaging data with various sample sizes, feature set sizes, and predictor effect sizes. The contribution of additional machine learning techniques - embedded feature selection and bootstrap aggregation (bagging) - to model performance was also quantified. Five machine learning regression methods - Gaussian Process Regression, Multiple Kernel Learning, Kernel Ridge Regression, the Elastic Net and Random Forest, were examined with both real and simulated MRI data, and in comparison to standard multiple regression. The different machine learning regression algorithms produced varying results, which depended on sample size, feature set size, and predictor effect size. When the effect size was large, the Elastic Net, Kernel Ridge Regression and Gaussian Process Regression performed well at most sample sizes and feature set sizes. However, when the effect size was small, only the Elastic Net made accurate predictions, but this was limited to analyses with sample sizes greater than 400. Random Forest also produced a moderate performance for small effect sizes, but could do so across all sample sizes. Machine learning techniques also improved prediction accuracy for multiple regression. These data provide empirical evidence for the differential performance of various machines on neuroimaging data, which are dependent on number of sample size, features and effect size.

Individual differences in learning from probabilistic reward and punishment predicts smoking status.

INTRODUCTION: The ability to update reward and punishment contingencies is a fundamental aspect of effective decision-making, requiring the ability to successfully adapt to the changing demands of one's environment. In the case of nicotine addiction, research has predominantly focused on reward- and punishment-based learning processes among current smokers relative to non-smokers, whereas less is known about these processes in former smokers. METHODS: In a total sample of 105 students, we used the Probabilistic Selection Task to examine differences in reinforcement learning among 41 current smokers, 29 ex-smokers, and 35 non-smokers. The PST was comprised of a training and test phase that allowed for the comparison of learning from positive versus negative feedback. RESULTS: The test phase of the Probabilistic Selection Task significantly predicted smoking status. Current and non-smokers were classified with moderate accuracy, whereas ex-smokers were typically misclassified as smokers. Lower rates of learning from rewards were associated with an increased likelihood of being a smoker or an ex-smoker compared with being a non-smoker. Higher rates of learning from punishment were associated with an increased likelihood of being a smoker relative to non-smoker. However, learning from punishment did not predict ex-smoker status. CONCLUSIONS: Current smokers and ex-smokers were less likely to learn from rewards, supporting the hypothesis that deficient reward processing is a feature of chronic addiction. In addition, current smokers were more sensitive to punishment than ex-smokers, contradicting some recent findings.

Neuromarkers for Mental Disorders: Harnessing Population Neuroscience.

Despite abundant research into the neurobiology of mental disorders, to date neurobiological insights have had very little impact on psychiatric diagnosis or treatment. In this review, we contend that the search for neuroimaging biomarkers-neuromarkers-of mental disorders is a highly promising avenue toward improved psychiatric healthcare. However, many of the traditional tools used for psychiatric neuroimaging are inadequate for the identification of neuromarkers. Specifically, we highlight the need for larger samples and for multivariate analysis. Approaches such as machine learning are likely to be beneficial for interrogating high-dimensional neuroimaging data. We suggest that broad, population-based study designs will be important for developing neuromarkers of mental disorders, and will facilitate a move away from a phenomenological definition of mental disorder categories and toward psychiatric nosology based on biological evidence. We provide an outline of how the development of neuromarkers should occur, emphasizing the need for tests of external and construct validity, and for collaborative research efforts. Finally, we highlight some concerns regarding the development, and use of, neuromarkers in psychiatric healthcare.

A Combination of Impulsivity Subdomains Predict Alcohol Intoxication Frequency.

BACKGROUND: Impulsivity, broadly characterized as the tendency to act prematurely without foresight, is linked to alcohol misuse in college students. However, impulsivity is a multidimensional construct and different subdomains likely underlie different patterns of alcohol misuse. Here, we quantified the association between alcohol intoxication frequency and alcohol consumption frequency and choice, action, cognitive, and trait domains of impulsivity. METHODS: University student drinkers (n = 106) completed a battery of demographic and alcohol-related items, as well as self-report and task-based measures indexing different facets of impulsivity. Two orthogonal latent factors, intoxication frequency and alcohol consumption frequency, were generated. Their validity was demonstrated with respect to adverse consequences of alcohol use. Machine learning with penalized regression and feature selection was then utilized to predict intoxication and alcohol consumption frequency using all impulsivity subdomains. Out-of-sample validation was used to quantify model performance. RESULTS: Impulsivity measures alone were significant predictors of intoxication frequency, but not consumption frequency. Propensity for increased intoxication frequency was characterized by increased trait impulsivity, including the Disinhibition subscale of the Sensation Seeking Scale, Attentional and Non-planning subscales of the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale, increased task-based cognitive impulsivity (response time variability), and increased choice impulsivity (steeper delay discounting on a delay discounting questionnaire). A model combining impulsivity domains with other risk factors (gender; nicotine, cannabis, and other drug use; executive functioning; and learning processes) was also significant but did not outperform the model comprising of impulsivity alone. CONCLUSIONS: Intoxication frequency, but not consumption frequency, was characterized by a number of impulsivity subdomains.

Machine Learning EEG to Predict Cognitive Functioning and Processing Speed Over a 2-Year Period in Multiple Sclerosis Patients and Controls.

Event-related potentials (ERPs) show promise to be objective indicators of cognitive functioning. The aim of the study was to examine if ERPs recorded during an oddball task would predict cognitive functioning and information processing speed in Multiple Sclerosis (MS) patients and controls at the individual level. Seventy-eight participants (35 MS patients, 43 healthy age-matched controls) completed visual and auditory 2- and 3-stimulus oddball tasks with 128-channel EEG, and a neuropsychological battery, at baseline (month 0) and at Months 13 and 26. ERPs from 0 to 700 ms and across the whole scalp were transformed into 1728 individual spatio-temporal datapoints per participant. A machine learning method that included penalized linear regression used the entire spatio-temporal ERP to predict composite scores of both cognitive functioning and processing speed at baseline (month 0), and months 13 and 26. The results showed ERPs during the visual oddball tasks could predict cognitive functioning and information processing speed at baseline and a year later in a sample of MS patients and healthy controls. In contrast, ERPs during auditory tasks were not predictive of cognitive performance. These objective neurophysiological indicators of cognitive functioning and processing speed, and machine learning methods that can interrogate high-dimensional data, show promise in outcome prediction.

Neural circuitry underlying sustained attention in healthy adolescents and in ADHD symptomatology.

Moment-to-moment reaction time variability on tasks of attention, often quantified by intra-individual response variability (IRV), provides a good indication of the degree to which an individual is vulnerable to lapses in sustained attention. Increased IRV is a hallmark of several disorders of attention, including Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). Here, task-based fMRI was used to provide the first examination of how average brain activation and functional connectivity patterns in adolescents are related to individual differences in sustained attention as measured by IRV. We computed IRV in a large sample of adolescents (n = 758) across 'Go' trials of a Stop Signal Task (SST). A data-driven, multi-step analysis approach was used to identify networks associated with low IRV (i.e., good sustained attention) and high IRV (i.e., poorer sustained attention). Low IRV was associated with greater functional segregation (i.e., stronger negative connectivity) amongst an array of brain networks, particularly between cerebellum and motor, cerebellum and prefrontal, and occipital and motor networks. In contrast, high IRV was associated with stronger positive connectivity within the motor network bilaterally and between motor and parietal, prefrontal, and limbic networks. Consistent with these observations, a separate sample of adolescents exhibiting elevated ADHD symptoms had increased fMRI activation and stronger positive connectivity within the same motor network denoting poorer sustained attention, compared to a matched asymptomatic control sample. With respect to the functional connectivity signature of low IRV, there were no statistically significant differences in networks denoting good sustained attention between the ADHD symptom group and asymptomatic control group. We propose that sustained attentional processes are facilitated by an array of neural networks working together, and provide an empirical account of how the functional role of the cerebellum extends to cognition in adolescents. This work highlights the involvement of motor cortex in the integrity of sustained attention, and suggests that atypically strong connectivity within motor networks characterizes poor attentional capacity in both typically developing and ADHD symptomatic adolescents.

Computational EEG modelling of decision making under ambiguity reveals spatio-temporal dynamics of outcome evaluation.

Complex human cognition, such as decision-making under ambiguity, is reflected in dynamic spatio-temporal activity in the brain. Here, we combined event-related potentials with computational modelling of the time course of decision-making and outcome evaluation during the Iowa Gambling Task. Measures of choice probability generated using the Prospect Valence Learning Delta (PVL-Delta) model, in addition to objective trial outcomes (outcome magnitude and valence), were applied as regressors in a general linear model of the EEG signal. The resulting three-dimensional spatio-temporal characterization of task-related neural dynamics demonstrated that outcome valence, outcome magnitude, and PVL-Delta choice probability were expressed in distinctly separate event related potentials. Our findings showed that the P3 component was associated with an experience-based measure of outcome expectancy.

The potential of neuroimaging for identifying predictors of adolescent alcohol use initiation and misuse.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Dysfunction in brain regions underlying impulse control, reward processing and executive function have been associated previously with adolescent alcohol misuse. However, identifying pre-existing neurobiological risk factors, as distinct from changes arising from early alcohol-use, is difficult. Here, we outline how neuroimaging data can identify the neural predictors of adolescent alcohol-use initiation and misuse by using prospective longitudinal studies to follow initially alcohol-naive individuals over time and by neuroimaging adolescents with inherited risk factors for alcohol misuse. METHOD: A comprehensive narrative of the literature regarding neuroimaging studies published between 2010 and 2016 focusing on predictors of adolescent alcohol use initiation and misuse. FINDINGS: Prospective, longitudinal neuroimaging studies have identified pre-existing differences between adolescents who remained alcohol-naive and those who transitioned subsequently to alcohol use. Both functional and structural grey matter differences were observed in temporal and frontal regions, including reduced brain activity in the superior frontal gyrus and temporal lobe, and thinner temporal cortices of future alcohol users. Interactions between brain function and genetic predispositions have been identified, including significant association found between the Ras protein-specific guanine nucleotide releasing factor 2 (RASGRF2) gene and reward-related striatal functioning. CONCLUSIONS: Neuroimaging predictors of alcohol use have shown modest utility to date. Future research should use out-of-sample performance as a quantitative measure of a predictor's utility. Neuroimaging data should be combined across multiple modalities, including structural information such as volumetrics and cortical thickness, in conjunction with white-matter tractography. A number of relevant neurocognitive systems should be assayed; particularly, inhibitory control, reward processing and executive functioning. Combining a rich magnetic resonance imaging data set could permit the generation of neuroimaging risk scores, which could potentially yield targeted interventions.

Ventral Striatum Connectivity During Reward Anticipation in Adolescent Smokers.

Substance misusers, including adolescent smokers, often have reduced reward system activity during processing of non-drug rewards. Using a psychophysiological interaction approach, we examined functional connectivity with the ventral striatum during reward anticipation in a large (N = 206) sample of adolescent smokers. Increased smoking frequency was associated with (1) increased connectivity with regions involved in saliency and valuation, including the orbitofrontal cortex and (2) reduced connectivity between the ventral striatum and regions associated with inhibition and risk aversion, including the right inferior frontal gyrus. These results demonstrate that functional connectivity during reward processing is relevant to adolescent addiction.

The Clinical Added Value of Imaging: A Perspective From Outcome Prediction.

Objective measures of psychiatric health would be of benefit in clinical practice. Despite considerable research in the area of psychiatric neuroimaging outcome prediction, translating putative neuroimaging markers (neuromarkers) of a disorder into clinical practice has proven challenging. We reviewed studies that used neuroimaging measures to predict treatment response and disease outcomes in major depressive disorder, substance use, autism spectrum disorder, psychosis, and dementia. The majority of studies sought to predict psychiatric outcomes rather than develop a specific biological index of future disease trajectory. Studies varied widely with respect to sample size and quantification of out-of-sample prediction model performance. Many studies were able to predict psychiatric outcomes with moderate accuracy, with neuroimaging data often augmenting the prediction compared to clinical or psychometric data alone. We make recommendations for future research with respect to methods that can increase the generalizability and reproducibility of predictions. Large sample sizes in conjunction with machine learning methods, such as feature selection, cross-validation, and random label permutation, provide significant improvement to and quantification of generalizability. Further refinement of neuroimaging protocols and analysis methods will likely facilitate the clinical applicability of predictive imaging markers in psychiatry. Such clinically relevant neuromarkers need not necessarily be grounded in the pathophysiology of the disease, but identifying these neuromarkers may suggest targets for future research into disease mechanisms. The ability of imaging prediction models to augment clinical judgments will ultimately depend on the personal and economic costs and benefits to the patient.