The replication-competent HIV reservoir is a genetically restricted, younger subset of the overall pool of HIV proviruses persisting during therapy, which is highly genetically stable over time.

Within-host HIV populations continually diversify during untreated infection, and this diversity persists within infected cell reservoirs during antiretroviral therapy (ART). Achieving a better understanding of on-ART proviral evolutionary dynamics, and a better appreciation of how the overall persisting pool of (largely genetically defective) proviruses differs from the much smaller replication-competent HIV reservoir, is critical to HIV cure efforts. We reconstructed within-host HIV evolutionary histories in blood from seven participants of the Women's Interagency HIV Study who experienced HIV seroconversion, and used these data to characterize the diversity, lineage origins, and ages of proviral env-gp120 sequences sampled longitudinally up to 12 years on ART. We also studied HIV sequences emerging from the reservoir in two participants. We observed that proviral clonality generally increased over time on ART, with clones frequently persisting long term. While on-ART proviral integration dates generally spanned the duration of untreated infection, HIV emerging in plasma was exclusively younger (i.e., dated to the years immediately pre-ART). The genetic and age distributions of distinct proviral sequences remained stable during ART in all but one participant, in whom there was evidence that younger proviruses had been preferentially eliminated after 12 years on ART. Analysis of the gag region in three participants corroborated our env-gp120-based observations, indicating that our observations are not influenced by the HIV region studied. Our results underscore the remarkable genetic stability of the distinct proviral sequences that persist in blood during ART. Our results also suggest that the replication-competent HIV reservoir is a genetically restricted, younger subset of this overall proviral pool.IMPORTANCECharacterizing the genetically diverse HIV sequences that persist in the reservoir despite antiretroviral therapy (ART) is critical to cure efforts. Our observations confirm that proviruses persisting in blood on ART, which are largely genetically defective, broadly reflect the extent of within-host HIV evolution pre-ART. Moreover, on-ART clonal expansion is not appreciably accompanied by the loss of distinct proviral lineages. In fact, on-ART proviral genetic composition remained stable in all but one participant, in whom, after 12 years on ART, proviruses dating to around near ART initiation had been preferentially eliminated. We also identified recombinant proviruses between parental sequence fragments of different ages. Though rare, such sequences suggest that reservoir cells can be superinfected with HIV from another infection era. Overall, our finding that the replication-competent reservoir in blood is a genetically restricted, younger subset of all persisting proviruses suggests that HIV cure strategies will need to eliminate a reservoir that differs in key respects from the overall proviral pool.

HIV reservoirs are dominated by genetically younger and clonally enriched proviruses.

IMPORTANCE: Characterizing the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) reservoir that endures despite antiretroviral therapy (ART) is critical to cure efforts. We observed that the oldest proviruses persisting during ART were exclusively defective, while intact proviruses (and rebound HIV) dated to nearer ART initiation. This helps explain why studies that sampled sub-genomic proviruses on-ART (which are largely defective) routinely found sequences dating to early infection, whereas those that sampled replication-competent HIV found almost none. Together with our findings that intact proviruses were more likely to be clonal, and that on-ART low-level/isolated viremia originated from proviruses of varying ages (including possibly defective ones), our observations indicate that (i) on-ART and rebound viremia can have distinct within-host origins, (ii) intact proviruses have shorter lifespans than grossly defective ones and thus depend more heavily on clonal expansion for persistence, and (iii) an HIV reservoir predominantly "dating" to near ART initiation will be substantially adapted to within-host pressures, complicating immune-based cure strategies.

Community Insights in Phylogenetic HIV Research: The CIPHR Project Protocol.

Inferring HIV transmission networks from HIV sequences is gaining popularity in the field of HIV molecular epidemiology. However, HIV sequences are often analyzed at distance from those affected by HIV epidemics, namely without the involvement of communities most affected by HIV. These remote analyses often mean that knowledge is generated in absence of lived experiences and socio-economic realities that could inform the ethical application of network-derived information in 'real world' programmes. Procedures to engage communities are noticeably absent from the HIV molecular epidemiology literature. Here we present our team's protocol for engaging community activists living in Nairobi, Kenya in a knowledge exchange process - The CIPHR Project (Community Insights in Phylogenetic HIV Research). Drawing upon a community-based participatory approach, our team will (1) explore the possibilities and limitations of HIV molecular epidemiology for key population programmes, (2) pilot a community-based HIV molecular study, and (3) co-develop policy guidelines on conducting ethically safe HIV molecular epidemiology. Critical dialogue with activist communities will offer insight into the potential uses and abuses of using such information to sharpen HIV prevention programmes. The outcome of this process holds importance to the development of policy frameworks that will guide the next generation of the global response.

The replication-competent HIV reservoir is a genetically restricted, younger subset of the overall pool of HIV proviruses persisting during therapy, which is highly genetically stable over time.

Within-host HIV populations continually diversify during untreated infection, and members of these diverse forms persist within infected cell reservoirs, even during antiretroviral therapy (ART). Characterizing the diverse viral sequences that persist during ART is critical to HIV cure efforts, but our knowledge of on-ART proviral evolutionary dynamics remains incomplete, as does our understanding of the differences between the overall pool of persisting proviral DNA (which is largely genetically defective) and the subset of intact HIV sequences capable of reactivating. Here, we reconstructed within-host HIV evolutionary histories in blood from seven participants of the Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS) who experienced HIV seroconversion. We measured diversity, lineage origins and ages of proviral sequences (env-gp120) sampled up to four times, up to 12 years on ART. We used the same techniques to study HIV sequences emerging from the reservoir in two participants. Proviral clonality generally increased over time on ART, with clones frequently persisting across multiple time points. The integration dates of proviruses persisting on ART generally spanned the duration of untreated infection (though were often skewed towards years immediately pre-ART), while in contrast, reservoir-origin viremia emerging in plasma was exclusively "younger" (i.e., dated to the years immediately pre-ART). The genetic and age distributions of distinct proviral sequences remained highly stable during ART in all but one participant in whom, after 12 years, there was evidence that "younger" proviruses had been preferentially eliminated. Analysis of within-host recombinant proviral sequences also suggested that HIV reservoirs can be superinfected with virus reactivated from an older era, yielding infectious viral progeny with mosaic genomes of sequences with different ages. Overall, results underscore the remarkable genetic stability of distinct proviral sequences that persist on ART, yet suggest that replication-competent HIV reservoir represents a genetically-restricted and overall "younger" subset of the overall persisting proviral pool in blood.

Inferring Human Immunodeficiency Virus 1 Proviral Integration Dates With Bayesian Inference.

Human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV) proviruses archived in the persistent reservoir currently pose the greatest obstacle to HIV cure due to their evasion of combined antiretroviral therapy and ability to reseed HIV infection. Understanding the dynamics of the HIV persistent reservoir is imperative for discovering a durable HIV cure. Here, we explore Bayesian methods using the software BEAST2 to estimate HIV proviral integration dates. We started with within-host longitudinal HIV sequences collected prior to therapy, along with sequences collected from the persistent reservoir during suppressive therapy. We built a BEAST2 model to estimate integration dates of proviral sequences collected during suppressive therapy, implementing a tip date random walker to adjust the sequence tip dates and a latency-specific prior to inform the dates. To validate our method, we implemented it on both simulated and empirical data sets. Consistent with previous studies, we found that proviral integration dates were spread throughout active infection. Path sampling to select an alternative prior for date estimation in place of the latency-specific prior produced unrealistic results in one empirical data set, whereas on another data set, the latency-specific prior was selected as best fitting. Our Bayesian method outperforms current date estimation techniques with a root mean squared error of 0.89 years on simulated data relative to 1.23-1.89 years with previously developed methods. Bayesian methods offer an adaptable framework for inferring proviral integration dates.

HIV reservoirs are dominated by genetically younger and clonally enriched proviruses.

In order to cure HIV, we need to better understand the within-host evolutionary origins of the small reservoir of genome-intact proviruses that persists within infected cells during antiretroviral therapy (ART). Most prior studies on reservoir evolutionary dynamics however did not discriminate genome-intact proviruses from the vast background of defective ones. We reconstructed within-host pre-ART HIV evolutionary histories in six individuals and leveraged this information to infer the ages of intact and defective proviruses sampled after an average >9 years on ART, along with the ages of rebound and low-level/isolated viremia occurring during this time. We observed that the longest-lived proviruses persisting on ART were exclusively defective, usually due to large deletions. In contrast, intact proviruses and rebound HIV exclusively dated to the years immediately preceding ART. These observations are consistent with genome-intact proviruses having shorter lifespans, likely due to the cumulative risk of elimination following viral reactivation and protein production. Consistent with this, intact proviruses (and those with packaging signal defects) were three times more likely to be genetically identical compared to other proviral types, highlighting clonal expansion as particularly important in ensuring their survival. By contrast, low-level/isolated viremia sequences were genetically heterogeneous and sometimes ancestral, where viremia may have originated from defective proviruses. Results reveal that the HIV reservoir is dominated by clonally-enriched and genetically younger sequences that date to the untreated infection period when viral populations had been under within-host selection pressures for the longest duration. Knowledge of these qualities may help focus strategies for reservoir elimination.

HIV proviral genetic diversity, compartmentalization and inferred dynamics in lung and blood during long-term suppressive antiretroviral therapy.

The lung is an understudied site of HIV persistence. We isolated 898 subgenomic proviral sequences (nef) by single-genome approaches from blood and lung from nine individuals on long-term suppressive antiretroviral therapy (ART), and characterized genetic diversity and compartmentalization using formal tests. Consistent with clonal expansion as a driver of HIV persistence, identical sequences comprised between 8% to 86% of within-host datasets, though their location (blood vs. lung) followed no consistent pattern. The majority (77%) of participants harboured at least one sequence shared across blood and lung, supporting the migration of clonally-expanded cells between sites. The extent of blood proviral diversity on ART was also a strong indicator of diversity in lung (Spearman's ρ = 0.98, p<0.0001). For three participants, insufficient lung sequences were recovered to reliably investigate genetic compartmentalization. Of the remainder, only two participants showed statistically significant support for compartmentalization when analysis was restricted to distinct proviruses per site, and the extent of compartmentalization was modest in both cases. When all within-host sequences (including duplicates) were considered, the number of compartmentalized datasets increased to four. Thus, while a subset of individuals harbour somewhat distinctive proviral populations in blood and lung, this can simply be due to unequal distributions of clonally-expanded sequences. For two participants, on-ART proviruses were also phylogenetically analyzed in context of plasma HIV RNA populations sampled up to 18 years prior, including pre-ART and during previous treatment interruptions. In both participants, on-ART proviruses represented the most ancestral sequences sampled within-host, confirming that HIV sequences can persist in the body for decades. This analysis also revealed evidence of re-seeding of the reservoir during treatment interruptions. Results highlight the genetic complexity of proviruses persisting in lung and blood during ART, and the uniqueness of each individual's proviral composition. Personalized HIV remission and cure strategies may be needed to overcome these challenges.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 lockdown on expansion of HIV transmission clusters among key populations: A retrospective phylogenetic analysis.

Background: Public health measures designed to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission led to reduced access to care and prevention services for people living with or at risk of acquiring HIV, particularly during the initial introduction of extensive restrictions. This reduction in access may have contributed to increases in HIV transmission not outweighed by decreases in transmission occurring as a result of reduced contact rates promoted by the same public health measures. Methods: We synthesize available province-wide HIV data in British Columbia, Canada, together with public mobility data to phylogenetically investigate the early impacts of SARS-CoV-2 on HIV transmission. Cluster growth, coalescent branching events and lineage-level diversification rates were assessed in "pre-lockdown" (January 22-March 21, 2020), "lockdown" (March 22-May 20, 2020) and "post-lockdown" (May 21-July 19, 2020) to facilitate comparison of transmission trends across key populations. Findings: Results reveal increased HIV transmission in a limited number of clusters in association with reduced access to health services during the initial introduction of SARS-CoV-2-related restrictions. In particular, clusters associated with people who inject drugs (PWID) show rapid growth, extensive branching events in phylogenetic trees during and following the lockdown period, and elevated median change in individuals' viral diversification rates during lockdown compared to clusters associated with men who have sex with men (MSM), consistent with increased transmission rates between PWID. Interpretation: Increased vigilance and innovative targeted solutions are critical to offset potential negative impacts of SARS-CoV-2 or future pandemic-related restrictions on HIV epidemic dynamics. Funding: Funding sources include Genome Canada and Genome BC, the Public Health Agency of Canada, the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research Coronavirus Rapid Response Programme. Student funding includes a NSERC CREATE scholarship and a Canadian Institutes of Health Research graduate fellowship.

Genomic epidemiology of the first two waves of SARS-CoV-2 in Canada.

Tracking the emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 lineages using phylogenetics has proven critical to inform the timing and stringency of COVID-19 public health interventions. We investigated the effectiveness of international travel restrictions at reducing SARS-CoV-2 importations and transmission in Canada in the first two waves of 2020 and early 2021. Maximum likelihood phylogenetic trees were used to infer viruses' geographic origins, enabling identification of 2263 (95% confidence interval: 2159-2366) introductions, including 680 (658-703) Canadian sublineages, which are international introductions resulting in sampled Canadian descendants, and 1582 (1501-1663) singletons, introductions with no sampled descendants. Of the sublineages seeded during the first wave, 49% (46-52%) originated from the USA and were primarily introduced into Quebec (39%) and Ontario (36%), while in the second wave, the USA was still the predominant source (43%), alongside a larger contribution from India (16%) and the UK (7%). Following implementation of restrictions on the entry of foreign nationals on 21 March 2020, importations declined from 58.5 (50.4-66.5) sublineages per week to 10.3-fold (8.3-15.0) lower within 4 weeks. Despite the drastic reduction in viral importations following travel restrictions, newly seeded sublineages in summer and fall 2020 contributed to the persistence of COVID-19 cases in the second wave, highlighting the importance of sustained interventions to reduce transmission. Importations rebounded further in November, bringing newly emergent variants of concern (VOCs). By the end of February 2021, there had been an estimated 30 (19-41) B.1.1.7 sublineages imported into Canada, which increasingly displaced previously circulating sublineages by the end of the second wave.Although viral importations are nearly inevitable when global prevalence is high, with fewer importations there are fewer opportunities for novel variants to spark outbreaks or outcompete previously circulating lineages.

Phylogenetic prioritization of HIV-1 transmission clusters with viral lineage-level diversification rates.

Background and objectives: Public health officials faced with a large number of transmission clusters require a rapid, scalable and unbiased way to prioritize distribution of limited resources to maximize benefits. We hypothesize that transmission cluster prioritization based on phylogenetically derived lineage-level diversification rates will perform as well as or better than commonly used growth-based prioritization measures, without need for historical data or subjective interpretation. Methodology: 9822 HIV pol sequences collected during routine drug resistance genotyping were used alongside simulated sequence data to infer sets of phylogenetic transmission clusters via patristic distance threshold. Prioritized clusters inferred from empirical data were compared to those prioritized by the current public health protocols. Prioritization of simulated clusters was evaluated based on correlation of a given prioritization measure with future cluster growth, as well as the number of direct downstream transmissions from cluster members. Results: Empirical data suggest diversification rate-based measures perform comparably to growth-based measures in recreating public heath prioritization choices. However, unbiased simulated data reveals phylogenetic diversification rate-based measures perform better in predicting future cluster growth relative to growth-based measures, particularly long-term growth. Diversification rate-based measures also display advantages over growth-based measures in highlighting groups with greater future transmission events compared to random groups of the same size. Furthermore, diversification rate measures were notably more robust to effects of decreased sampling proportion. Conclusions and implications: Our findings indicate diversification rate-based measures frequently outperform growth-based measures in predicting future cluster growth and offer several additional advantages beneficial to optimizing the public health prioritization process.

Assessing in vivo mutation frequencies and creating a high-resolution genome-wide map of fitness costs of Hepatitis C virus.

Like many viruses, Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) has a high mutation rate, which helps the virus adapt quickly, but mutations come with fitness costs. Fitness costs can be studied by different approaches, such as experimental or frequency-based approaches. The frequency-based approach is particularly useful to estimate in vivo fitness costs, but this approach works best with deep sequencing data from many hosts are. In this study, we applied the frequency-based approach to a large dataset of 195 patients and estimated the fitness costs of mutations at 7957 sites along the HCV genome. We used beta regression and random forest models to better understand how different factors influenced fitness costs. Our results revealed that costs of nonsynonymous mutations were three times higher than those of synonymous mutations, and mutations at nucleotides A or T had higher costs than those at C or G. Genome location had a modest effect, with lower costs for mutations in HVR1 and higher costs for mutations in Core and NS5B. Resistance mutations were, on average, costlier than other mutations. Our results show that in vivo fitness costs of mutations can be site and virus specific, reinforcing the utility of constructing in vivo fitness cost maps of viral genomes.

HIV Proviral Burden, Genetic Diversity, and Dynamics in Viremic Controllers Who Subsequently Initiated Suppressive Antiretroviral Therapy.

Curing HIV will require eliminating the reservoir of integrated, replication-competent proviruses that persist despite antiretroviral therapy (ART). Understanding the burden, genetic diversity, and longevity of persisting proviruses in diverse individuals with HIV is critical to this goal, but these characteristics remain understudied in some groups. Among them are viremic controllers-individuals who naturally suppress HIV to low levels but for whom therapy is nevertheless recommended. We reconstructed within-host HIV evolutionary histories from longitudinal single-genome amplified viral sequences in four viremic controllers who eventually initiated ART and used this information to characterize the age and diversity of proviruses persisting on therapy. We further leveraged these within-host proviral age distributions to estimate rates of proviral turnover prior to ART. This is an important yet understudied metric, since pre-ART proviral turnover dictates reservoir composition at ART initiation (and thereafter), which is when curative interventions, once developed, would be administered. Despite natural viremic control, all participants displayed significant within-host HIV evolution pretherapy, where overall on-ART proviral burden and diversity broadly reflected the extent of viral replication and diversity pre-ART. Consistent with recent studies of noncontrollers, the proviral pools of two participants were skewed toward sequences that integrated near ART initiation, suggesting dynamic proviral turnover during untreated infection. In contrast, proviruses recovered from the other two participants dated to time points that were more evenly spread throughout infection, suggesting slow or negligible proviral decay following deposition. HIV cure strategies will need to overcome within-host proviral diversity, even in individuals who naturally controlled HIV replication before therapy. IMPORTANCE HIV therapy is lifelong because integrated, replication-competent viral copies persist within long-lived cells. To cure HIV, we need to understand when these viral reservoirs form, how large and genetically diverse they are, and how long they endure. Elite controllers-individuals who naturally suppress HIV to undetectable levels-are being intensely studied as models of HIV remission, but viremic controllers, individuals who naturally suppress HIV to low levels, remain understudied even though they too may hold valuable insights. We combined phylogenetics and mathematical modeling to reconstruct proviral seeding and decay from infection to therapy-mediated suppression in four viremic controllers. We recovered diverse proviruses persisting during therapy that broadly reflected HIV's within-host evolutionary history, where the estimated half-lives of the persistent proviral pool during untreated infection ranged from <1 year to negligible. Cure strategies will need to contend with proviral diversity and between-host heterogeneity, even in individuals who naturally control HIV.

Concordance of HIV transmission risk factors elucidated using viral diversification rate and phylogenetic clustering.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Although HIV sequence clustering is routinely used to identify subpopulations experiencing elevated transmission, it over-simplifies transmission dynamics and is sensitive to methodology. Complementarily, viral diversification rates can be used to approximate historical transmission rates. Here, we investigated the concordance and sensitivity of HIV transmission risk factors identified by phylogenetic clustering, viral diversification rate, changes in viral diversification rate and a combined approach. METHODOLOGY: Viral sequences from 9848 people living with HIV in British Columbia, Canada, sampled between 1996 and February 2019, were used to infer phylogenetic trees, from which clusters were identified and viral diversification rates of each tip were calculated. Factors associated with heightened transmission risk were compared across models of cluster membership, viral diversification rate, changes in diversification rate, and viral diversification rate among clusters. RESULTS: Viruses within larger clusters had higher diversification rates and lower changes in diversification rate than those within smaller clusters; however, rates within individual clusters, independent of size, varied widely. Risk factors for both cluster membership and elevated viral diversification rate included being male, young, a resident of health authority E, previous injection drug use, previous hepatitis C virus infection or a high recent viral load. In a sensitivity analysis, models based on cluster membership had wider confidence intervals and lower concordance of significant effects than viral diversification rate for lower sampling rates. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Viral diversification rate complements phylogenetic clustering, offering a means of evaluating transmission dynamics to guide provision of treatment and prevention services. LAY SUMMARY: Understanding HIV transmission dynamics within clusters can help prioritize public health resource allocation. We compared socio-demographic and clinical risk factors associated with phylogenetic cluster membership and viral diversification rate, a historical branching rate, in order to assess their relative concordance and sampling sensitivity.

Proviral Turnover During Untreated HIV Infection Is Dynamic and Variable Between Hosts, Impacting Reservoir Composition on ART.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) can persist as an integrated provirus, in a transcriptionally repressed state, within infected cells. This small yet enduring pool of cellular reservoirs that harbor replication-competent HIV is the main barrier to cure. Entry of viral sequences into cellular reservoirs begins shortly after infection, and cells containing integrated proviral DNA are extremely stable once suppressive antiretroviral therapy (ART) is initiated. During untreated HIV infection however, reservoir turnover is likely to be more dynamic. Understanding these dynamics is important because the longevity of the persisting proviral pool during untreated infection dictates reservoir composition at ART initiation. If the persisting proviral pool turns over slowly pre-ART, then HIV sequences seeded into it during early infection would have a high likelihood of persisting for long periods. However, if pre-ART turnover was rapid, the persisting proviral pool would rapidly shift toward recently circulating HIV sequences. One-way to estimate this turnover rate is from the age distributions of proviruses sampled shortly after therapy initiation: this is because, at the time of sampling, the majority of proviral turnover would have already occurred prior to ART. Recently, methods to estimate a provirus' age from its sequence have made this possible. Using data from 12 individuals with HIV subtype C for whom proviral ages had been determined phylogenetically, we estimated that the average proviral half-life during untreated infection was 0.78 (range 0.45-2.38) years, which is >15 times faster than that of proviral DNA during suppressive ART. We further show that proviral turnover during untreated infection correlates with both viral setpoint and rate of CD4+ T-cell decline during this period. Overall, our results support dynamic proviral turnover pre-ART in most individuals, which helps explain why many individuals' reservoirs are skewed toward younger HIV sequences. Broadly, our findings are consistent with the notion that active viral replication creates an environment less favorable to proviral persistence, while viral suppression creates conditions more favorable to persistence, where ART stabilizes the proviral pool by dramatically slowing its rate of decay. Strategies to inhibit this stabilizing effect and/or to enhance reservoir turnover during ART could represent additional strategies to reduce the HIV reservoir.

Unifying Phylogenetic Birth-Death Models in Epidemiology and Macroevolution.

Birth-death stochastic processes are the foundations of many phylogenetic models and are widely used to make inferences about epidemiological and macroevolutionary dynamics. There are a large number of birth-death model variants that have been developed; these impose different assumptions about the temporal dynamics of the parameters and about the sampling process. As each of these variants was individually derived, it has been difficult to understand the relationships between them as well as their precise biological and mathematical assumptions. Without a common mathematical foundation, deriving new models is nontrivial. Here, we unify these models into a single framework, prove that many previously developed epidemiological and macroevolutionary models are all special cases of a more general model, and illustrate the connections between these variants. This unification includes both models where the process is the same for all lineages and those in which it varies across types. We also outline a straightforward procedure for deriving likelihood functions for arbitrarily complex birth-death(-sampling) models that will hopefully allow researchers to explore a wider array of scenarios than was previously possible. By rederiving existing single-type birth-death sampling models, we clarify and synthesize the range of explicit and implicit assumptions made by these models. [Birth-death processes; epidemiology; macroevolution; phylogenetics; statistical inference.].

Intra-host evolutionary dynamics of the hepatitis C virus among people who inject drugs.

Most individuals chronically infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) are asymptomatic during the initial stages of infection and therefore the precise timing of infection is often unknown. Retrospective estimation of infection duration would improve existing surveillance data and help guide treatment. While intra-host viral diversity quantifications such as Shannon entropy have previously been utilized for estimating duration of infection, these studies characterize the viral population from only a relatively short segment of the HCV genome. In this study intra-host diversities were examined across the HCV genome in order to identify the region most reflective of time and the degree to which these estimates are influenced by high-risk activities including those associated with HCV acquisition. Shannon diversities were calculated for all regions of HCV from 78 longitudinally sampled individuals with known seroconversion timeframes. While the region of the HCV genome most accurately reflecting time resided within the NS3 gene, the gene region with the highest capacity to differentiate acute from chronic infections was identified within the NS5b region. Multivariate models predicting duration of infection from viral diversity significantly improved upon incorporation of variables associated with recent public, unsupervised drug use. These results could assist the development of strategic population treatment guidelines for high-risk individuals infected with HCV and offer insights into variables associated with a likelihood of transmission.

Aquaculture mediates global transmission of a viral pathogen to wild salmon.

Global expansion of aquaculture and agriculture facilitates disease emergence and catalyzes transmission to sympatric wildlife populations. The health of wild salmon stocks critically concerns Indigenous peoples, commercial and recreational fishers, and the general public. Despite potential impact of viral pathogens such as Piscine orthoreovirus-1 (PRV-1) on endangered wild salmon populations, their epidemiology in wild fish populations remains obscure, as does the role of aquaculture in global and local spread. Our phylogeographic analyses of PRV-1 suggest that development of Atlantic salmon aquaculture facilitated spread from Europe to the North and South East Pacific. Phylogenetic analysis and reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction surveillance further illuminate the circumstances of emergence of PRV-1 in the North East Pacific and provide strong evidence for Atlantic salmon aquaculture as a source of infection in wild Pacific salmon. PRV-1 is now an important infectious agent in critically endangered wild Pacific salmon populations, fueled by aquacultural transmission.

Fundamental Identifiability Limits in Molecular Epidemiology.

Viral phylogenies provide crucial information on the spread of infectious diseases, and many studies fit mathematical models to phylogenetic data to estimate epidemiological parameters such as the effective reproduction ratio (Re) over time. Such phylodynamic inferences often complement or even substitute for conventional surveillance data, particularly when sampling is poor or delayed. It remains generally unknown, however, how robust phylodynamic epidemiological inferences are, especially when there is uncertainty regarding pathogen prevalence and sampling intensity. Here, we use recently developed mathematical techniques to fully characterize the information that can possibly be extracted from serially collected viral phylogenetic data, in the context of the commonly used birth-death-sampling model. We show that for any candidate epidemiological scenario, there exists a myriad of alternative, markedly different, and yet plausible "congruent" scenarios that cannot be distinguished using phylogenetic data alone, no matter how large the data set. In the absence of strong constraints or rate priors across the entire study period, neither maximum-likelihood fitting nor Bayesian inference can reliably reconstruct the true epidemiological dynamics from phylogenetic data alone; rather, estimators can only converge to the "congruence class" of the true dynamics. We propose concrete and feasible strategies for making more robust epidemiological inferences from viral phylogenetic data.

Comparative Analysis of Within-Host Mutation Patterns and Diversity of Hepatitis C Virus Subtypes 1a, 1b, and 3a.

Understanding within-host evolution is critical for predicting viral evolutionary outcomes, yet such studies are currently lacking due to difficulty involving human subjects. Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is an RNA virus with high mutation rates. Its complex evolutionary dynamics and extensive genetic diversity are demonstrated in over 67 known subtypes. In this study, we analyzed within-host mutation frequency patterns of three HCV subtypes, using a large number of samples obtained from treatment-naïve participants by next-generation sequencing. We report that overall mutation frequency patterns are similar among subtypes, yet subtype 3a consistently had lower mutation frequencies and nucleotide diversity, while subtype 1a had the highest. We found that about 50% of genomic sites are highly conserved across subtypes, which are likely under strong purifying selection. We also compared within-host and between-host selective pressures, which revealed that Hyper Variable Region 1 within hosts was under positive selection, but was under slightly negative selection between hosts, which indicates that many mutations created within hosts are removed during the transmission bottleneck. Examining the natural prevalence of known resistance-associated variants showed their consistent existence in the treatment-naïve participants. These results provide insights into the differences and similarities among HCV subtypes that may be used to develop and improve HCV therapies.

Variable routes to genomic and host adaptation among coronaviruses.

Natural selection operating on the genomes of viral pathogens in different host species strongly contributes to adaptation facilitating host colonization. Here, we analyse, quantify and compare viral adaptation in genomic sequence data derived from seven zoonotic events in the Coronaviridae family among primary, intermediate and human hosts. Rates of nonsynonymous (dN ) and synonymous (dS ) changes on specific amino acid positions were quantified for each open reading frame (ORF). Purifying selection accounted for 77% of all sites under selection. Diversifying selection was most frequently observed in viruses infecting the primary hosts of each virus and predominantly occurred in the orf1ab genomic region. Within all four intermediate hosts, diversifying selection on the spike gene was observed either solitarily or in combination with orf1ab and other genes. Consistent with previous evidence, pervasive diversifying selection on coronavirus spike genes corroborates the role this protein plays in host cellular entry, adaptation to new hosts and evasion of host cellular immune responses. Structural modelling of spike proteins identified a significantly higher proportion of sites for SARS-CoV-2 under positive selection in close proximity to sites of glycosylation relative to the other coronaviruses. Among human coronaviruses, there was a significant inverse correlation between the number of sites under positive selection and the estimated years since the virus was introduced into the human population. Abundant diversifying selection observed in SARS-CoV-2 suggests the virus remains in the adaptive phase of the host switch, typical of recent host switches. A mechanistic understanding of where, when and how genomic adaptation occurs in coronaviruses following a host shift is crucial for vaccine design, public health responses and predicting future pandemics.