Composite environmental indices-a case of rickety rankings.

Composite indices have been widely used to rank the environmental performance of nations. Such environmental indices can be useful in communicating complex information as a single value and have the potential to generate political and media awareness of environmental issues. However, poorly constructed, or poorly communicated indices, can hinder efforts to identify environmental failings, and there are considerable differences in rank among existing environmental indices. Here, we provide a review of the conceptual frameworks and methodological choices used for existing environmental indices to enhance our understanding of their accuracy and applicability. In the present study, we review existing global indices according to their conceptual framework (objectives of the index and set of indicators included) and methodological choices made in their construction (e.g., weighting and aggregation). We examine how differences in conceptual frameworks and methodology may yield a more, or less, optimistic view of a country's environment. Our results indicate that (1) multidimensional environmental indices with indicators related to human health and welfare or policy are positively correlated; (2) environment-only indices are positively correlated with one another or are not correlated at all; (3) multidimensional indices and environment-only indices are negatively correlated with each other or are not correlated at all. This indicates that the conceptual frameworks and indicators included may influence a country's rank among different environmental indices. Our results highlight that, when choosing an existing environmental index-or developing a new one-it is important to assess whether the conceptual framework (and associated indicators) and methodological choices are appropriate for the phenomenon being measured and reported on. This is important because the inclusion of confounding indicators in environmental indices may provide a misleading view of the quality of a country's environment.

World scientists' warning: The behavioural crisis driving ecological overshoot.

Previously, anthropogenic ecological overshoot has been identified as a fundamental cause of the myriad symptoms we see around the globe today from biodiversity loss and ocean acidification to the disturbing rise in novel entities and climate change. In the present paper, we have examined this more deeply, and explore the behavioural drivers of overshoot, providing evidence that overshoot is itself a symptom of a deeper, more subversive modern crisis of human behaviour. We work to name and frame this crisis as 'the Human Behavioural Crisis' and propose the crisis be recognised globally as a critical intervention point for tackling ecological overshoot. We demonstrate how current interventions are largely physical, resource intensive, slow-moving and focused on addressing the symptoms of ecological overshoot (such as climate change) rather than the distal cause (maladaptive behaviours). We argue that even in the best-case scenarios, symptom-level interventions are unlikely to avoid catastrophe or achieve more than ephemeral progress. We explore three drivers of the behavioural crisis in depth: economic growth; marketing; and pronatalism. These three drivers directly impact the three 'levers' of overshoot: consumption, waste and population. We demonstrate how the maladaptive behaviours of overshoot stemming from these three drivers have been catalysed and perpetuated by the intentional exploitation of previously adaptive human impulses. In the final sections of this paper, we propose an interdisciplinary emergency response to the behavioural crisis by, amongst other things, the shifting of social norms relating to reproduction, consumption and waste. We seek to highlight a critical disconnect that is an ongoing societal gulf in communication between those that know such as scientists working within limits to growth, and those members of the citizenry, largely influenced by social scientists and industry, that must act.

Nutrient criteria to achieve New Zealand's riverine macroinvertebrate targets.

Waterways worldwide are experiencing nutrient enrichment from population growth and intensive agriculture, and New Zealand is part of this global trend. Increasing fertilizer in New Zealand and intensive agriculture have driven substantial water quality declines over recent decades. A recent national directive has set environmental managers a range of riverine ecological targets, including three macroinvertebrate indicators, and requires nutrient criteria be set to support their achievement. To support these national aspirations, we use the minimization-of-mismatch analysis to derive potential nutrient criteria. Given that nutrient and macroinvertebrate monitoring often does not occur at the same sites, we compared nutrient criteria derived at sites where macroinvertebrates and nutrients are monitored concurrently with nutrient criteria derived at all macroinvertebrate monitoring sites and using modelled nutrients. To support all three macroinvertebrate targets, we suggest that suitable nutrient criteria would set median dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentrations at ~0.6 mg/L and median dissolved reactive phosphorus concentrations at ~0.02 mg/L. We recognize that deriving site-specific nutrient criteria requires the balancing of multiple values and consideration of multiple targets, and anticipate that criteria derived here will help and support these environmental goals.

New Zealand Dairy Farming: Milking Our Environment for All Its Worth.

Over the past two decades there have been major increases in dairy production in New Zealand. This increase in intensity has required increased use of external inputs, in particular fertilizer, feed, and water. Intensified dairy farming thus incurs considerable environmental externalities: impacts that are not paid for directly by the dairy farmer. These externalities are left for the wider New Zealand populace to deal with, both economically and environmentally. This is counter-intuitive given the dairy industry itself relies on a 'clean green' image to maximize returns. This is the first nationwide assessment of some of the environmental costs of the recent increase of dairy intensification in New Zealand. Significant costs arise from nitrate contamination of drinking water, nutrient pollution to lakes, soil compaction, and greenhouse gas emissions. At the higher end, the estimated cost of some environmental externalities surpasses the 2012 dairy export revenue of NZ$11.6 billion and almost reaches the combined export revenue and dairy's contribution to Gross Domestic Product in 2010 of NZ$5 billion. For the dairy industry to accurately report on its profitability and maintain its sustainable marketing label, these external costs should be reported. This assessment is in fact extremely conservative as many impacts have not been valued, thus, the total negative external impact of intensified dairying is probably grossly underestimated.

A rapid method to score stream reaches based on the overall performance of their main ecological functions.

A method was developed to score the ecological condition of first- to third-order stream reaches in the Auckland region of New Zealand based on the performance of their key ecological functions. Such a method is required by consultants and resource managers to quantify the reduction in ecological condition of a modified stream reach relative to its unmodified state. This is a fundamental precursor for the determination of fair environmental compensation for achieving no-net-loss in overall stream ecological value. Field testing and subsequent use of the method indicated that it provides a useful measure of ecological condition related to the performance of stream ecological functions. It is relatively simple to apply compared to a full ecological study, is quick to use, and allows identification of the degree of impairment of each of the key ecological functions. The scoring system was designed so that future improvements in the measurement of stream functions can be incorporated into it. Although the methodology was specifically designed for Auckland streams, the principles can be readily adapted to other regions and stream types.

Rediscovering the species in community-wide predictive modeling.

Broadening the scope of conservation efforts to protect entire communities provides several advantages over the current species-specific focus, yet ecologists have been hampered by the fact that predictive modeling of multiple species is not directly amenable to traditional statistical approaches. Perhaps the greatest hurdle in community-wide modeling is that communities are composed of both co-occurring groups of species and species arranged independently along environmental gradients. Therefore, commonly used "short-cut" methods such as the modeling of so-called "assemblage types" are problematic. Our study demonstrates the utility of a multiresponse artificial neural network (MANN) to model entire community membership in an integrative yet species-specific manner. We compare MANN to two traditional approaches used to predict community composition: (1) a species-by-species approach using logistic regression analysis (LOG) and (2) a "classification-then-modeling" approach in which sites are classified into assemblage "types" (here we used two-way indicator species analysis and multiple discriminant analysis [MDA]). For freshwater fish assemblages of the North Island, New Zealand, we found that the MANN outperformed all other methods for predicting community composition based on multiscaled descriptors of the environment. The simple-matching coefficient comparing predicted and actual species composition was, on average, greatest for the MANN (91%), followed by MDA (85%), and LOG (83%). Mean Jaccard's similarity (emphasizing model performance for predicting species' presence) for the MANN (66%) exceeded both LOG (47%) and MDA (46%). The MANN also correctly predicted community composition (i.e., a significant proportion of the species membership based on a randomization procedure) for 82% of the study sites compared to 54% (MDA) and 49% (LOG), resulting in the MANN correctly predicting community composition in a total of 311 sites and an additional 117 sites (n = 379), on average, compared to LOG and MDA. The MANN also provided valuable explanatory power by simultaneously quantifying the nature of the relationships between the environment and both individual species and the entire community (composition and richness), which is not readily available from traditional approaches. We discuss how the MANN approach provides a powerful quantitative tool for conservation planning and highlight its potential for biomonitoring programs that currently depend on modeling discrete assemblage types to assess aquatic ecosystem health.

Application of the index of biotic integrity methodology to New Zealand freshwater fish communities.

An index of biotic integrity (IBI) was developed for freshwater fish in New Zealand streams. Data on freshwater fish occurrence for 5497 sites over the entire country were obtained from the New Zealand freshwater fish database for the period 1980-2002. Environmental habitat descriptors for the stream watersheds above or at each of these sites were obtained from an existing river environment classification using a geographic information system. Of the many IBI metrics in use globally, only six were adapted and applied because of differences between the fish fauna of New Zealand and the United States. A number of evaluation methods showed that all six metrics contributed to the overall IBI scores with high levels of consistency. The IBI assessment of sites sampled at different times showed high levels of temporal concordance. The IBI scores differed significantly among the geological areas, the sampling method used, and the year of survey. Overall, the results presented demonstrate the potential for New Zealand freshwater fish to be used to assess river condition at large spatial scales in New Zealand in the absence of specifically selected reference sites. This application demonstrates the effectiveness of the IBI approach even with a fauna of limited diversity and limited ecological specialisation as in the New Zealand fish fauna.

Assessing biological integrity using freshwater fish and decapod habitat selection functions.

Comparison between the number of taxa observed and the number expected in the absence of human impact is an easily understood and ecologically meaningful measure of biological integrity. This approach has been successfully applied to the assessment of the biological quality of flowing water sites using macroinvertebrates with the river invertebrate and classification system (RIVPACS) and its derivatives. In this paper, we develop a method similar to the RIVPACS predictive model approach to assess biological integrity at flowing-water sites using freshwater fish and decapod assemblages. We extend the RIVPACS approach by avoiding the biotic classification step and model each of the individual species separately. These assemblages were sampled at 118 least impacted (reference) sites in the Auckland region, New Zealand. Individual discriminant models based on the presence or absence of the 12 most common fish and decapod species were developed. Using the models, predictions were made using environmental measures at new sites to yield the probability of the capture of each of the 12 species, and these were combined to predict the assemblage expected at sites. The expected assemblage was compared to that observed using an observed over expected ratio (O/E). The models were evaluated using a number of internal tests including jackknifing, data partitioning, and the degree to which O/E values differed between reference sites and a set of sites perceived to be impaired by human impacts.