Vertical eDNA distribution of cold-water fishes in response to environmental variables in stratified lake.

In summer, the survival zones of cold-water species are predicted to narrow by both increasing water temperatures from the surface and by expanding hypoxic zones from the lake bottom. To examine how the abundance of cold-water fishes changes along environmental gradients, we assessed the vertical environmental DNA (eDNA) distributions of three salmonid species which may have different water temperature tolerances during both stratification and turnover periods using quantitative PCR (qPCR). In addition, we examined on the vertical distribution of diverse fish fauna using an eDNA metabarcoding assay. The results suggested that the kokanee salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) eDNA were abundant in deep, cold waters. On the other hand, rainbow trout (O. mykiss) eDNA were distributed uniformly throughout the water column, suggesting that they may have high water-temperature tolerance compared with kokanee salmon. The eDNA concentrations of masu salmon (O. masou) were below the detection limit (i.e., <10 copies µL-1) at all stations and depths and hence could not be quantified during stratification. Together with the finding that the eDNA distributions of other prey fish species were also constrained vertically in species-specific ways, our results suggest that climate change will result in substantial changes in the vertical distributions of lake fish species and thus affect their populations and interactions.

Can warming accelerate the decline of Odonata species in experimental paddies due to insecticide fipronil exposure?

Systemic insecticides are one of the causes of Odonata declines in paddy fields. Since rising temperatures associated with global warming can contribute to strengthen pesticide toxicity, insecticide exposures under increasing temperatures may accelerate the decline of Odonata species in the future. However, the combined effects of multiple stressors on Odonata diversity and abundance within ecosystems under various environmental conditions and species interactions are little known. Here, we evaluate the combined effects of the insecticide fipronil and warming on the abundance of Odonata nymphs in experimental paddies. We show that the stand-alone effect of the insecticide exposure caused a significant decrease in abundance of the Odonata community, while nymphs decreased synergistically in the combined treatments with temperature rise in paddy water. However, impacts of each stressor alone were different among species. This study provides experimental evidence that warming could accelerate a reduction in abundance of the Odonata community exposed to insecticides (synergistic effect), although the strength of that effect might vary with the community composition in targeted habitats, due mainly to different susceptibilities among species to each stressor. Community-based monitoring in actual fields is deemed necessary for a realistic evaluation of the combined effects of multiple stressors on biodiversity.

Noise pollution alters the diet composition of invertebrate consumers both in and beyond a noise-exposed grassland ecosystem.

Anthropogenic noise is ubiquitous globally. However, we know little about how the impacts of noise alter fundamental ecosystem properties, such as resource consumption by invertebrate consumers. Using experimental noise manipulation and faecal DNA metabarcoding, we assessed how the direct and cross-trophic indirect effects of noise altered the dietary richness and specializations of omnivorous grasshoppers in a grassland ecosystem. We found that the experimental noise treatment expanded grasshoppers' dietary richness and resulted in dietary generalizations in both noise-exposed and adjacent relatively quieter areas. Unexpectedly, however, these dietary changes were primarily explained by the direct effect of noise not only in the noise-exposed areas but also in the adjacent quieter areas and were relaxed by indirect effects of noise such as reduced birds and predation risk and increased grasshoppers. Our work suggests that noise pollution can be key in explaining the variation of invertebrate consumers' diets across a gradient of noise-exposed environments.

Perspective: sustainability challenges, opportunities and solutions for long-term ecosystem observations.

As interest in natural capital grows and society increasingly recognizes the value of biodiversity, we must discuss how ecosystem observations to detect changes in biodiversity can be sustained through collaboration across regions and sectors. However, there are many barriers to establishing and sustaining large-scale, fine-resolution ecosystem observations. First, comprehensive monitoring data on both biodiversity and possible anthropogenic factors are lacking. Second, some in situ ecosystem observations cannot be systematically established and maintained across locations. Third, equitable solutions across sectors and countries are needed to build a global network. Here, by examining individual cases and emerging frameworks, mainly from (but not limited to) Japan, we illustrate how ecological science relies on long-term data and how neglecting basic monitoring of our home planet further reduces our chances of overcoming the environmental crisis. We also discuss emerging techniques and opportunities, such as environmental DNA and citizen science as well as using the existing and forgotten sites of monitoring, that can help overcome some of the difficulties in establishing and sustaining ecosystem observations at a large scale with fine resolution. Overall, this paper presents a call to action for joint monitoring of biodiversity and anthropogenic factors, the systematic establishment and maintenance of in situ observations, and equitable solutions across sectors and countries to build a global network, beyond cultures, languages, and economic status. We hope that our proposed framework and the examples from Japan can serve as a starting point for further discussions and collaborations among stakeholders across multiple sectors of society. It is time to take the next step in detecting changes in socio-ecological systems, and if monitoring and observation can be made more equitable and feasible, they will play an even more important role in ensuring global sustainability for future generations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.

Assessing ecosystem vulnerability under severe uncertainty of global climate change.

Assessing the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of species, communities, and ecosystems is essential for successful conservation. Climate change, however, induces extreme uncertainty in various pathways of assessments, which hampers robust decision-making for conservation. Here, we developed a framework that allows us to quantify the level of acceptable uncertainty as a metric of ecosystem robustness, considering the uncertainty due to climate change. Under the framework, utilizing a key concept from info-gap decision theory, vulnerability is measured as the inverse of maximum acceptable uncertainty to fulfill the minimum required goal for conservation. We applied the framework to 42 natural forest ecosystems and assessed their acceptable uncertainties in terms of maintenance of species richness and forest functional type. Based on best-guess estimate of future temperature in various GCM models and RCP scenarios, and assuming that tree species survival is primarily determined by mean annual temperature, we performed simulations with increasing deviation from the best-guess temperature. Our simulations indicated that the acceptable uncertainty varied greatly among the forest plots, presumably reflecting the distribution of ecological traits and niches among species within the communities. Our framework provides acceptable uncertainty as an operational metric of ecosystem robustness under uncertainty, while incorporating both system properties and socioeconomic conditions. We argue that our framework can enhance social consensus building and decision-making in the face of the extreme uncertainty induced by global climate change.

Inferring causal impacts of extreme water-level drawdowns on lake water clarity using long-term monitoring data.

Although long-term ecosystem monitoring provides essential knowledge for practicing ecosystem management, analyses of the causal effects of ecological impacts from large-scale observational data are still in an early stage of development. We used causal impact analysis (CIA)-a synthetic control method that enables estimation of causal impacts from unrepeated, long-term observational data-to evaluate the causal impacts of extreme water-level drawdowns during summer on subsequent water quality. We used more than 100 years of transparency and water level monitoring data from Lake Biwa, Japan. The results of the CIA showed that the most extreme drawdown in recorded history, which occurred in 1994, had a significant positive effect on transparency (a maximum increase of 1.75 m on average over the following year) in the north basin of the lake. The extreme drawdown in 1939 was also shown to be a trigger for an increase in transparency in the north basin, whereas that in 1984 had no significant effects on transparency. In the south basin, contrary to the pattern in the north basin, the extreme drawdown had a significant negative effect on transparency shortly after the extreme drawdown. These different impacts of the extreme drawdowns were considered to be affected by the timing and magnitude of the extreme drawdowns and the depths of the basins. Our approach of inferring the causal impacts of past events on ecosystems will be helpful in implementing water-level management for ecosystem management and improving water quality in lakes.

Narrowly distributed taxa are disproportionately informative for conservation planning.

Biological atlas data can be used as inputs into conservation decision-making, yet atlases are sometimes infrequently updated, which can be problematic when the distribution of species is changing rapidly. Despite this, we have a poor understanding of strategies for efficiently updating biological atlas data. Using atlases of the distributions of 1630 threatened plant taxa, we quantitatively compared the informativeness of narrowly distributed and widespread taxa in identifying areas that meet taxon-specific conservation targets, and also measured the cost-efficiency of meeting those targets. We also explored the underlying mechanisms of the informativeness of narrowly distributed taxa. Overall, narrowly distributed taxa are far more informative than widespread taxa for identifying areas that efficiently meet conservation targets, while their informativeness for identifying cost-efficient areas varied depending on the type of conservation target. Narrowly distributed taxa are informative mainly because their distributions disproportionately capture areas that are either relatively taxon rich or taxon poor, and because of larger number of taxa captured with given number of records. Where resources for updating biological data are limited, a focus on areas supporting many narrowly distributed taxa could benefit conservation planning.

Complex range shifts among forest functional types under the contemporary warming.

The direction and magnitude of species distribution shifts tend to differ among species and functional types (FTs). Quantifying functional trait variation and species interactions will improve our understanding of the complex mechanisms that govern ecosystem dynamics and their responses to climate change. Here, we analyzed differences in the juvenile and adult temperature ranges of Japanese tree species at the mean, colder edge, and warmer edge of their distributions to reveal how functional traits affect interactions between different FT groups (e.g., deciduous and evergreen broad-leaved trees), using linear models and permutation tests. Overall, juveniles preferred cooler sites, but with high variation. The variation among species was partly explained by the difference in seed mass where species with lighter seeds tend to colonize colder sites. On the other hand, the distribution range of FTs showed complex behavior at the ecotones of different FTs. Specifically, in three of eight ecotones, nonparallel range shifts between FTs were detected, which includes cold shifting in deciduous broad-leaved FT where a warm shift by subalpine FT happened, and cold shifting in subtropical FT where warm shifts by either the deciduous broad-leaved or the evergreen broad-leaved FTs happened. Our results suggest that past warming has caused a general cold shift at species level, whereas different mechanisms, such as light seeds disperse farther in distribution's colder edge and heavy seeds (e.g., evergreen broad-leaved) compete better in warmer edge, create nonparallel responses of FT distribution ranges leading to the observed homogenization at several ecotones among FTs. These complex range shifts at FT level have crucial implications for climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Emergent dual scaling of riverine biodiversity.

A prevailing paradigm suggests that species richness increases with area in a decelerating way. This ubiquitous power law scaling, the species-area relationship, has formed the foundation of many conservation strategies. In spatially complex ecosystems, however, the area may not be the sole dimension to scale biodiversity patterns because the scale-invariant complexity of fractal ecosystem structure may drive ecological dynamics in space. Here, we use theory and analysis of extensive fish community data from two distinct geographic regions to show that riverine biodiversity follows a robust scaling law along the two orthogonal dimensions of ecosystem size and complexity (i.e., the dual scaling law). In river networks, the recurrent merging of various tributaries forms fractal branching systems, where the prevalence of branching (ecosystem complexity) represents a macroscale control of the ecosystem's habitat heterogeneity. In the meantime, ecosystem size dictates metacommunity size and total habitat diversity, two factors regulating biodiversity in nature. Our theory predicted that, regardless of simulated species' traits, larger and more branched "complex" networks support greater species richness due to increased space and environmental heterogeneity. The relationships were linear on logarithmic axes, indicating power law scaling by ecosystem size and complexity. In support of this theoretical prediction, the power laws have consistently emerged in riverine fish communities across the study regions (Hokkaido Island in Japan and the midwestern United States) despite hosting different fauna with distinct evolutionary histories. The emergence of dual scaling law may be a pervasive property of branching networks with important implications for biodiversity conservation.

Current site planning of medium to large solar power systems accelerates the loss of the remaining semi-natural and agricultural habitats.

The global transition to renewable energy sources has accelerated to mitigate the effects of global climate change. Sudden increases in solar power facilities have caused the physical destruction of wildlife habitats, thereby resulting in the decline of biodiversity and ecosystem functions. However, previous assessments have been based on the environmental impact of large solar photovoltaics (PVs). The impact of medium-sized PV facilities (0.5-10 MW), which can alter small habitat patches through the accumulation of installations has not been assessed. Here, we quantified the amount of habitat loss directly related to the construction of PV facilities with different size classes and estimated their siting attributes using construction patterns in Japan and South Korea. We identified that a comparable amount of natural and semi-natural habitats were lost due to the recent installation of medium solar facilities (approximately 66.36 and 85.73% of the overall loss in Japan and South Korea, respectively). Compared to large solar PVs, medium PV installations resulted in a higher area loss of semi-natural habitats, including secondary/planted forests, secondary/artificial grasslands, and agricultural lands. The siting attributes of medium and large solar PV facilities indicated a preference for cost-based site selection rather than prioritizing habitat protection for biodiversity conservation. Moreover, even conservation areas were developed when economic and topological conditions were suitable for energy production. Our simulations indicate that increasing the construction of PVs in urban areas could help reduce the loss of natural and semi-natural habitats. To improve the renewable energy share while mitigating the impacts on biodiversity, our results stress the need for a proactive assessment to enforce sustainable site-selection criteria for solar PVs in renewable energy initiatives. The revised criteria should consider the cumulative impacts of varied size classes of solar power facilities, including medium PVs, and the diverse aspects of the ecological value of natural habitats.

Forest Tax Payment Responsibility from the Forest Service Footprint Perspective.

It has been observed that market failure has hampered the development of sustainable forest ecosystem services such as CO2 absorption and fixation, water retention, and biodiversity. One of the reasons for this is that the link between forest land use and the beneficiaries of that use has not been widely recognized or clearly established. To address this problem, we conducted a footprint analysis to clarify the linkage between Japanese taxpayers as the beneficiaries of forest land use and the use of tax revenue and monetary donations for forest management. This study focuses on how the current forest tax collected from Japanese taxpayers (63 billion Japanese yen) could be allocated more fairly. The question of whether the collected taxes are sufficient is left for another time. At the core of our analysis, we examined the carbon footprint and established a linkage between the origins of CO2 emissions in Japan and their destinations by using a subnational multiregional input-output database and building a base table focused on various land use types and subnational regions at the municipality level. By clarifying these linkages and enhancing their transparency, we provide a basis for developing alternative financing schemes involving both taxation and taxpayer donations in support of forest management activities and protection of biodiverse habitats.

Author Correction: Investigating effect of climate warming on the population declines of Sympetrum frequens during the 1990s in three regions in Japan.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Development of a camera trap for perching dragonflies: a new tool for freshwater environmental assessment.

Although dragonflies are excellent environmental indicators for monitoring terrestrial water ecosystems, automatic monitoring techniques using digital tools are limited. We designed a novel camera trapping system with an original dragonfly detector based on the hypothesis that perching dragonflies can be automatically detected using inexpensive and energy-saving photosensors built in a perch-like structure. A trial version of the camera trap was developed and evaluated in a case study targeting red dragonflies (Sympetrum spp.) in Japan. During an approximately 2-month period, the detector successfully detected Sympetrum dragonflies while using extremely low power consumption (less than 5 mW). Furthermore, a short-term field experiment using time-lapse cameras for validation at three locations indicated that the detection accuracy was sufficient for practical applications. The frequency of false positive detection ranged from 17 to 51 over an approximately 2-day period. The detection sensitivities were 0.67 and 1.0 at two locations, where a time-lapse camera confirmed that Sympetrum dragonflies perched on the trap more than once. However, the correspondence between the detection frequency by the camera trap and the abundance of Sympetrum dragonflies determined by field observations conducted in parallel was low when the dragonfly density was relatively high. Despite the potential for improvements in our camera trap and its application to the quantitative monitoring of dragonflies, the low cost and low power consumption of the detector make it a promising tool.

Investigating effect of climate warming on the population declines of Sympetrum frequens during the 1990s in three regions in Japan.

Climate warming is of concern as a key factor in the worldwide decline in insect populations. In Japan, numbers of a common dragonfly in rice paddy fields, Sympetrum frequens, decreased sharply in the 1990s. Because S. frequens migrates to cooler mountains in summer, climate warming has been suggested as one of the main causes of the population decline in addition to agronomic factors. Here, we analysed the relation between summer temperatures and population densities of S. frequens and the related S. infuscatum, which does not migrate to mountains in summer, using published population monitoring data and temperature data from three regions (Toyama, Ishikawa, and Shizuoka) in Japan. Decadal differences in summer temperatures lay within the range of fluctuations among years, suggesting that an increase in summer temperatures cannot explain the past sharp population declines. However, regression analyses using monitoring data from Toyama showed that the population dynamics of both species in autumn are negatively correlated with summer temperatures in the same year. These results suggest that high temperatures in summer directly affect adult mortality to an extent that results in a decrease in population growth.

Direct and indirect effects of noise pollution alter biological communities in and near noise-exposed environments.

Noise pollution is pervasive across every ecosystem on Earth. Although decades of research have documented a variety of negative impacts of noise to organisms, key gaps remain, such as how noise affects different taxa within a biological community and how effects of noise propagate across space. We experimentally applied traffic noise pollution to multiple roadless areas and quantified the impacts of noise on birds, grasshoppers and odonates. We show that acoustically oriented birds have reduced species richness and abundance and different community compositions in experimentally noise-exposed areas relative to comparable quiet locations. We also found both acoustically oriented grasshoppers and odonates without acoustic receptors to have reduced species richness and/or abundance in relatively quiet areas that abut noise-exposed areas. These results suggest that noise pollution not only affects acoustically oriented animals, but that noise may reverberate through biological communities through indirect effects to those with no clear links to the acoustic realm, even in adjacent quiet environments.

Evaluation of the ecological niche model approach in spatial conservation prioritization.

Ecological niche models (ENMs) are widely used in spatial prioritization for biodiversity conservation (e.g. selecting conservation areas). However, it is unclear whether ENMs are always beneficial for such purposes. We quantified the benefit of using ENMs in conservation prioritization, comparing the numbers of species covered by conservation areas selected on the basis of probabilities estimated by ENMs (ENM approach) and those selected on the basis of raw observation data (raw-data approach), while controlling survey range, survey bias, and target size of conservation area. We evaluated three ENM algorithms (GLM, GAM, and random forests). We used virtual community data generated by simulation for the evaluation. ENM approach was effective when survey bias is strong, survey range is narrow, and target size of conservation area is moderate. The percentage of cases in which the ENM approach outperformed the raw-data approach ranged from 0.0 to 33% (GLM), 31% (GAM), and 75% (random forests) depending on conditions. The number of rare species (< 20 presence records) included in the conservation area based on the ENM approach was less than, or the same as, that of the raw-data approach. The unexpectedly limited cases in which the ENM approach was effective in the present research may depend on the conservation target we used (to cover as many species as possible in conservation area). Our results highlight urgent need for evaluating ENM's effectiveness under other conservation targets for wise use of ENM in conservation prioritization.

Homogenization of freshwater lakes: Recent compositional shifts in fish communities are explained by gamefish movement and not climate change.

Globally, lake fish communities are being subjected to a range of scale-dependent anthropogenic pressures, from climate change to eutrophication, and from overexploitation to species introductions. As a consequence, the composition of these communities is being reshuffled, in most cases leading to a surge in taxonomic similarity at the regional scale termed homogenization. The drivers of homogenization remain unclear, which may be a reflection of interactions between various environmental changes. In this study, we investigate two potential drivers of the recent changes in the composition of freshwater fish communities: recreational fishing and climate change. Our results, derived from 524 lakes of Ontario, Canada sampled in two periods (1965-1982 and 2008-2012), demonstrate that the main contributors to homogenization are the dispersal of gamefish species, most of which are large predators. Alternative explanations relating to lake habitat (e.g., area, phosphorus) or variations in climate have limited explanatory power. Our analysis suggests that human-assisted migration is the primary driver of the observed compositional shifts, homogenizing freshwater fish community among Ontario lakes and generating food webs dominated by gamefish species.

Consumer trophic positions respond variably to seasonally fluctuating environments.

The effects of environmental seasonality on food web structure have been notoriously understudied in empirical ecology. Here, we focus on seasonal changes in one key attribute of a food web, consumer trophic position. We ask whether fishes inhabiting tropical river-floodplain ecosystems behave as seasonal omnivores, by shifting their trophic positions in relation to the annual flood pulse, or whether they feed at the same trophic position all year, as much empirical work implicitly assumes. Using dietary data from the Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia, and a literature review, we find evidence that some fishes, especially small piscivores, increased consumption of invertebrates and/or plant material during the wet season, as predicted. However, nitrogen stable isotope (δ15 N) data for 26 Tonle Sap fishes, spanning a broader range of functional groups, uncovered high variation in seasonal trophic position responses among species (0 to ±0.52 trophic positions). Based on these findings, species respond to the flood pulse differently. Diverse behavioral responses to seasonality, underpinned by spatiotemporal variation at multiple scales, could be central for rerouting matter and energy flow in these dynamic ecosystems. Seasonally flexible foraging behaviors warrant further study given their potential influence on food web dynamics in a range of fluctuating environments.

Potential oscillators and keystone modules in food webs.

Food web theory suggests that the placement of a weak interaction is critical such that under some conditions even one well-placed weak interaction can stabilise multiple strong interactions. This theory suggests that complex stable webs may be built from pivotal weak interactions such that the removal of even one to a few keystone interactions can have significant cascading impacts on whole system diversity and structure. However, the connection between weak interactions, derived from the theory of modular food web components, and keystone species, derived from empirical results, is not yet well understood. Here, we develop numerical techniques to detect potential oscillators hidden in complex food webs, and show that, both in random and real food webs, keystone consumer-resource interactions often operate to stabilise them. Alarmingly, this result suggests that nature frequently may be dangerously close to precipitous change with even the loss of one or a few weakly interacting species.

Bottom-up linkages between primary production, zooplankton, and fish in a shallow, hypereutrophic lake.

Nutrient supply is a key bottom-up control of phytoplankton primary production in lake ecosystems. Top-down control via grazing pressure by zooplankton also constrains primary production and primary production may simultaneously affect zooplankton. Few studies have addressed these bidirectional interactions. We used convergent cross-mapping (CCM), a numerical test of causal associations, to quantify the presence and direction of the causal relationships among environmental variables (light availability, surface water temperature, NO3 -N, and PO4 -P), phytoplankton community composition, primary production, and the abundances of five functional zooplankton groups (large cladocerans, small cladocerans, rotifers, calanoids, and cyclopoids) in Lake Kasumigaura, a shallow, hypereutrophic lake in Japan. CCM suggested that primary production was causally influenced by NO3 -N and phytoplankton community composition; there was no detectable evidence of a causal effect of zooplankton on primary production. Our results also suggest that rotifers and cyclopoids were forced by primary production, and cyclopoids were further influenced by rotifers. However, our CCM suggested that primary production was weakly influenced by rotifers (i.e., bidirectional interaction). These findings may suggest complex linkages between nutrients, primary production, and rotifers and cyclopoids, a pattern that has not been previously detected or has been neglected. We used linear regression analysis to examine the relationships between the zooplankton community and pond smelt (Hypomesus nipponensis), the most abundant planktivore and the most important commercial fish species in Lake Kasumigaura. The relative abundance of pond smelt was significantly and positively correlated with the abundances of rotifers and cyclopoids, which were causally influenced by primary production. This finding suggests that bottom-up linkages between nutrient, primary production, and zooplankton abundance might be a key mechanism supporting high planktivore abundance in eutrophic lakes. Because increases in primary production and cyanobacteria blooms are likely to occur simultaneously in hypereutrophic lakes, our study highlights the need for ecosystem management to resolve the conflict between good water quality and high fishery production.