The HEAT-SHIELD project - Perspectives from an inter-sectoral approach to occupational heat stress.

OBJECTIVES: To provide perspectives from the HEAT-SHIELD project (www.heat-shield.eu): a multi-national, inter-sectoral, and cross-disciplinary initiative, incorporating twenty European research institutions, as well as occupational health and industrial partners, on solutions to combat negative health and productivity effects caused by working on a warmer world. METHODS: In this invited review, we focus on the theoretical and methodological advancements developed to combat occupational heat stress during the last five years of operation. RESULTS: We outline how we created climate forecast models to incorporate humidity, wind and solar radiation to the traditional temperature-based climate projections, providing the basis for timely, policy-relevant, industry-specific and individualized information. Further, we summarise the industry-specific guidelines we developed regarding technical and biophysical cooling solutions considering effectiveness, cost, sustainability, and the practical implementation potential in outdoor and indoor settings, in addition to field-testing of selected solutions with time-motion analyses and biophysical evaluations. All recommendations were adjusted following feedback from workshops with employers, employees, safety officers, and adjacent stakeholders such as local or national health policy makers. The cross-scientific approach was also used for providing policy-relevant information based on socioeconomic analyses and identification of vulnerable regions considered to be more relevant for political actions than average continental recommendations and interventions. DISCUSSION: From the HEAT-SHIELD experiences developed within European settings, we discuss how this inter-sectoral approach may be adopted or translated into actionable knowledge across continents where workers and societies are affected by escalating environmental temperatures.

Steps Towards Comprehensive Heat Communication in the Frame of a Heat Health Warning System in Slovenia.

Occupational heat stress has an important negative impact on the well-being, health and productivity of workers and should; therefore, be recognized as a public health issue in Europe. There is no comprehensive heat health warning system in Slovenia combining public health measures with meteorological forecasts. The aim of this research was to provide insight into the development of such a system in Slovenia, turning the communication from the current meteoalarm into a broader system that has more information for different social groups. To achieve this goal, the following steps were used: Analysis of summer temperatures and issued meteoalarms, a survey of the general knowledge about heat among the public, organization and management of two stakeholder symposia, and a final survey on workers' opinions on heat stress and measures, supplemented by interviews with employers. Summer average daily temperature distributions in Slovenia changed during the investigated period (1961-2019) and the mean values increased over time by 2-3 °C. Additionally, the number of days with fulfilled yellow (potentially dangerous) and especially orange (dangerous) meteoalarm conditions increased significantly after 1990. The survey of the general public about heat stress and warnings showed that efforts to raise awareness of heat issues need to be intensified and that public health measures should effectively target vulnerable groups. Stakeholder symposia and further surveys have shown that awareness and understanding of the negative effects of heat stress on health and productivity are still quite low, so effective ways of disseminating information to different sectors while striking the best balance between efficiency, feasibility and economic cost have to be found.

Heat Waves Occurrence and Outdoor Workers' Self-assessment of Heat Stress in Slovenia and Greece.

Changing patterns of heat waves are part of the global warming effect and the importance of changes is reinforced by their negative impact on society. Firstly, heat waves were analyzed in Brnik (Slovenia) and Larisa (Greece) in the period 1981⁻2017 to reflect the environment which workers are exposed to. Secondly, outdoor workers (70 from Greece, 216 from Slovenia) provided a self-assessment of heat stress. The heat wave timeline is presented as an effective way of illustrating long-term changes in heat waves' characteristics for various stakeholders. In both countries, workers assessed as significant the heat stress impact on productivity (Greece 69%, Slovenia 71%; p > 0.05), and in Slovenia also on well-being (74%; p < 0.01). The main experienced symptoms and diseases were thirst (Greece 70%, Slovenia 82%; p = 0.03), excessive sweating (67%, 85%; p = 0.01), exhaustion (51%, 62%; p > 0.05) and headache (44%, 53%; p > 0.05). The most common way to reduce heat stress was drinking more water (Greece 64%, Slovenia 82%; p = 0.001). Among the informed workers, the prevalent source of information was discussions. Therefore, educational campaigns are recommended, together with the testing of the efficiency of mitigation measures that will be proposed on the Heat-Shield project portal.

The effect of hot days on occupational heat stress in the manufacturing industry: implications for workers' well-being and productivity.

Climate change is expected to exacerbate heat stress at the workplace in temperate regions, such as Slovenia. It is therefore of paramount importance to study present and future summer heat conditions and analyze the impact of heat on workers. A set of climate indices based on summer mean (Tmean) and maximum (Tmax) air temperatures, such as the number of hot days (HD: Tmax above 30 °C), and Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) were used to account for heat conditions in Slovenia at six locations in the period 1981-2010. Observed trends (1961-2011) of Tmean and Tmax in July were positive, being larger in the eastern part of the country. Climate change projections showed an increase up to 4.5 °C for mean temperature and 35 days for HD by the end of the twenty-first century under the high emission scenario. The increase in WBGT was smaller, although sufficiently high to increase the frequency of days with a high risk of heat stress up to an average of a third of the summer days. A case study performed at a Slovenian automobile parts manufacturing plant revealed non-optimal working conditions during summer 2016 (WBGT mainly between 20 and 25 °C). A survey conducted on 400 workers revealed that 96% perceived the temperature conditions as unsuitable, and 56% experienced headaches and fatigue. Given these conditions and climate change projections, the escalating problem of heat is worrisome. The European Commission initiated a program of research within the Horizon 2020 program to develop a heat warning system for European workers and employers, which will incorporate case-specific solutions to mitigate heat stress.

Do variations in leaf phenology affect radial growth variations in Fagus sylvatica?

We used a dendrochronological and leaf phenology network of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) in Slovenia, a transitional area between Mediterranean, Alpine and continental climatic regimes, for the period 1955-2007 to test whether year to year variations in leaf unfolding and canopy duration (i.e. time between leaf unfolding and colouring) influence radial growth (annual xylem production and tree ring widths) and if such influences are more pronounced at higher altitudes. We showed that variability in leaf phenology has no significant effect on variations in radial growth. The results are consistent in the entire region, irrespective of the climatic regime or altitude, although previous studies have shown that leaf phenology and tree ring variation depend on altitude. The lack of relationship between year to year variability in leaf phenology and radial growth may suggest that earlier leaf unfolding--as observed in a previous study--probably does not cause increased tree growth rates in beech in Slovenia.

Influence of daily individual meteorological parameters on the incidence of acute coronary syndrome.

BACKGROUND: A nationwide study was conducted to explore the short term association between daily individual meteorological parameters and the incidence of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) treated with coronary emergency catheter interventions in the Republic of Slovenia, a south-central European country. METHOD: We linked meteorological data with daily ACS incidence for the entire population of Slovenia, for the population over 65 years of age and for the population under 65 years of age. Data were collected daily for a period of 4 years from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2011. In line with existing studies, we used a main effect generalized linear model with a log-link-function and a Poisson distribution of ACS. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Three of the studied meteorological factors (daily average temperature, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity) all have relevant and significant influences on ACS incidences for the entire population. However, the ACS incidence for the population over 65 is only affected by daily average temperature, while the ACS incidence for the population under 65 is affected by daily average pressure and humidity. In terms of ambient temperature, the overall findings of our study are in line with the findings of the majority of contemporary European studies, which also note a negative correlation. The results regarding atmospheric pressure and humidity are less in line, due to considerable variations in results. Additionally, the number of available European studies on atmospheric pressure and humidity is relatively low. The fourth studied variable-season-does not influence ACS incidence in a statistically significant way.

The response of Corylus avellana L. phenology to rising temperature in north-eastern Slovenia.

Knowledge of plant-weather relationships can improve crop management, resulting in higher quality and more stable crop yields. The annual timing of spring phenophases in mid-latitudes is largely a response to temperature, and reflects the thermal conditions of previous months. The effect of air temperature on the variability of hazelnut (Corylus avellana L.) phenophases (leafing, flowering) was investigated. Meteorological and phenological data for five cultivars were analysed over the periods 1969-1979 (P1) and 1994-2007 (P2) in Maribor, Slovenia. Phenological data series were correlated strongly to the temperature of the preceding months (R(2): 0.64-0.98) and better correlated to daily maximum and mean temperatures than to daily minimum temperatures. About 75% of phenophases displayed a tendency towards earlier appearance and a shorter flowering duration during P2, which could be explained by the significant temperature changes (+0.3°C/decade) from December to April between 1969 and 2007. An increase in air temperature of 1°C caused an acceleration in leafing by 2.5-3.9 days, with flowering showing higher sensitivity since a 1°C increase promoted male flowering by 7.0-8.8 days and female flowering by 6.3-8.9 days. The average rate of phenological change per degree of warming (days earlier per +1°C) did not differ significantly between P1 and P2. An estimation of chilling accumulation under field conditions during 1993-2009, between 1 November and 28 February, showed that all four of these months contributed approximately similar amounts of accumulated chilling units. The growing degree days (GDD) to flowering were calculated by an estimated base temperature of 2°C and 1 January as a starting date, given the most accurate calculations. In general, thermal requirements were greater in P2 than in P1, although this difference was not significant. Longer-time series data extended to other agricultural and wild plants would be helpful in tracking possible future changes in phenological responses to local climate.

Reconstructing dry and wet summers in SE Slovenia from oak tree-ring series.

We present a reconstruction of the June weather conditions in SE Slovenia from 1497 to 2003 based on the De Martonne aridity index (AI). The AI were derived from oak (Quercus spp.) tree-ring series of living trees and historic wood, which exhibited a clear response to June precipitation (positive) and temperature (negative). In the reconstructed AI time series we classified negative and positive deviations from the mean as strong (+/-1.28 SD) or extreme (+/-1.645 SD), and thus identified 50 years with a likely dry and hot June, as well as 40 years with a likely wet and cool June. Historical sources and chronicles were used to validate the AI reconstruction in the pre-instrumental period before 1896. The years 1501, 1540, 1546, 1616, 1718, 1788, 1822, 1834, 1839 and 1841, with extreme or strong negative AI deviations, are mentioned in Slovenian chronicles because of crop failures, droughts or extremely hot summers. The years 1691, 1705, 1798, 1799 and 1847, with extreme or strong positive AI deviations, are mentioned as years with a cool and rainy summer. We discuss the relevance of June weather conditions for the growth of plants in the region between the Alps, the Mediterranean and the continental Pannonian lowland, and the possible changes due to the current climate change scenario.

Statistical downscaling of general-circulation-model- simulated average monthly air temperature to the beginning of flowering of the dandelion (Taraxacum officinale) in Slovenia.

Phenological observations are a valuable source of information for investigating the relationship between climate variation and plant development. Potential climate change in the future will shift the occurrence of phenological phases. Information about future climate conditions is needed in order to estimate this shift. General circulation models (GCM) provide the best information about future climate change. They are able to simulate reliably the most important mean features on a large scale, but they fail on a regional scale because of their low spatial resolution. A common approach to bridging the scale gap is statistical downscaling, which was used to relate the beginning of flowering of Taraxacum officinale in Slovenia with the monthly mean near-surface air temperature for January, February and March in Central Europe. Statistical models were developed and tested with NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis predictor data and EARS predict and data for the period 1960-1999. Prior to developing statistical models, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was employed on the predictor data. Multiple linear regression was used to relate the beginning of flowering with expansion coefficients of the first three EOF for the Janauary, Febrauary and March air temperatures, and a strong correlation was found between them. Developed statistical models were employed on the results of two GCM (HadCM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3) to estimate the potential shifts in the beginning of flowering for the periods 1990-2019 and 2020-2049 in comparison with the period 1960-1989. The HadCM3 model predicts, on average, 4 days earlier occurrence and ECHAM4/OPYC3 5 days earlier occurrence of flowering in the period 1990-2019. The analogous results for the period 2020-2049 are a 10- and 11-day earlier occurrence.