Statistical methods applied for the assessment of the HIV cascade and continuum of care: a systematic scoping review.

OBJECTIVES: This scoping review aims to identify and synthesise existing statistical methods used to assess the progress of HIV treatment programmes in terms of the HIV cascade and continuum of care among people living with HIV (PLHIV). DESIGN: Systematic scoping review. DATA SOURCES: Published articles were retrieved from PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) Complete and Excerpta Medica dataBASE (EMBASE) databases between April and July 2022. We also strategically search using the Google Scholar search engine and reference lists of published articles. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: This scoping review included original English articles that estimated and described the HIV cascade and continuum of care progress in PLHIV. The review considered quantitative articles that evaluated either HIV care cascade progress in terms of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS targets or the dynamics of engagement in HIV care. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: The first author and the librarian developed database search queries and screened the retrieved titles and abstracts. Two independent reviewers and the first author extracted data using a standardised data extraction tool. The data analysis was descriptive and the findings are presented in tables and visuals. RESULTS: This review included 300 articles. Cross-sectional study design methods were the most commonly used to assess the HIV care cascade (n=279, 93%). In cross-sectional and longitudinal studies, the majority used proportions to describe individuals at each cascade stage (276/279 (99%) and 20/21 (95%), respectively). In longitudinal studies, the time spent in cascade stages, transition probabilities and cumulative incidence functions was estimated. The logistic regression model was common in both cross-sectional (101/279, 36%) and longitudinal studies (7/21, 33%). Of the 21 articles that used a longitudinal design, six articles used multistate models, which included non-parametric, parametric, continuous-time, time-homogeneous and discrete-time multistate Markov models. CONCLUSIONS: Most literature on the HIV cascade and continuum of care arises from cross-sectional studies. The use of longitudinal study design methods in the HIV cascade is growing because such methods can provide additional information about transition dynamics along the cascade. Therefore, a methodological guide for applying different types of longitudinal design methods to the HIV continuum of care assessments is warranted.

Body mass index trends and its impact of under and overweight on outcome among PLHIV on antiretroviral treatment in rural Tanzania: A prospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Increased body weight is an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease and is increasingly reported as a health problem in people living with HIV (PLHIV). There is limited data from rural sub-Saharan Africa, where malnutrition usually presents with both over- and undernutrition. We aimed to determine the prevalence and risk factors of underweight and overweight/obesity in PLHIV enrolled in a cohort in rural Tanzania before the introduction of integrase inhibitors. METHODS: This nested study of the prospective Kilombero and Ulanga Antiretroviral Cohort included adults aged ≥19 years initiated on antiretroviral therapy between 01/2013 and 12/2018 with follow-up through 06/2019. Body Mass Index (BMI) was classified as underweight (<18.5 kg/m2), normal (18.5-24.9 kg/m2), or overweight/obese (≥25.0 kg/m2). Stratified piecewise linear mixed models were used to assess the association between baseline characteristics and follow-up BMI. Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the association between time-updated BMI and death/loss to follow-up (LTFU). RESULTS: Among 2,129 patients, 22,027 BMI measurements (median 9 measurements: interquartile range 5-15) were analysed. At baseline, 398 (19%) patients were underweight and 356 (17%) were overweight/obese. The majority of patients were female (n = 1249; 59%), and aged 35-44 years (779; 37%). During the first 9 months, for every three additional months on antiretroviral therapy, BMI increased by 2% (95% confidence interval 1-2%, p<0.0001) among patients underweight at baseline and by 0.7% (0.5-0.6%, p<0.0001) among participants with normal BMI. Over a median of 20 months of follow-up, 107 (5%) patients died and 592 (28%) were LTFU. Being underweight was associated with >2 times the hazard of death/LTFU compared to participants with normal BMI. CONCLUSION: We found a double burden of malnutrition, with underweight being an independent predictor of mortality. Monitoring and measures to address both states of malnutrition among PLHIV should be integrated into routine HIV care.

Stigma-directed services (Stig2Health) to improve 'linkage to care' for people living with HIV in rural Tanzania: study protocol for a nested pre-post implementation study within the Kilombero and Ulanga Antiretroviral Cohort.

Background: HIV-related stigma is a major barrier to the timely linkage and retention of patients in HIV care in sub-Saharan Africa, where most people living with HIV/AIDS reside. In this implementation study we aim to evaluate the effect of stigma-directed services on linkage to care and other health outcomes in newly diagnosed HIV-positive patients. Methods: In a nested project of the Kilombero and Ulanga Antiretroviral Cohort in rural Tanzania, we conduct a prospective observational pre-post study to assess the impact of a bundle of stigma-directed services for newly diagnosed HIV positive patients. Stigma-directed services, delivered by a lay person living with HIV, are i) post-test counseling, ii) post-test video-assisted teaching, iii) group support therapy and group health education, and iv) mobile health. Patients receiving stigma services (enrolled from 1 st February 2020 to 31 st August 2021) are compared to a historical control receiving the standard of care (enrolled from 1 st July 2017 to 1 st February 2019). The primary outcome is 'linkage to care'. Secondary endpoints are retention in care, viral suppression, death and clinical failure at 6-12 months (up to 31 st August 2022). Self-reported stigma and depression are assessed using the Berger Stigma scale and the PHQ-9 questionnaire, respectively. The sample size calculation was based on cohort data from 2018. Assuming a pre-intervention cohort of 511 newly diagnosed adults of whom 346 (68%) were in care and on antiretroviral treatment (ART) at 2 months, a 10% increase in linkage (from 70 to 80%), a two-sided type I error rate of 5%, and 90% power, 321 adults are required for the post-implementation group. Discussion: We expect that integration of stigma-directed services leads to an increase of proportions of patients in care and on ART. The findings will provide guidance on how to integrate stigma-directed services into routine care in rural sub-Saharan Africa.

Factors associated with sub-microscopic placental malaria and its association with adverse pregnancy outcomes among HIV-negative women in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Malaria infection during pregnancy has negative health consequences for both mothers and offspring. Sub-microscopic malaria infection during pregnancy is common in most African countries. We sought to identify factors associated with sub-microscopic placental malaria, and its association with adverse pregnancy outcomes among HIV-negative pregnant women in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. METHODS: We recruited a cohort of pregnant women during their first trimester and assessed for the occurrence of placental malaria and pregnancy outcomes. The follow-up was done monthly from recruitment until delivery. Histopathology placental malaria positive results were defined as the presence of malaria pigment or parasitized erythrocytes on the slide (histology-positive (HP)), and the sub-microscopic placental infection was defined as positive Plasmodium falciparum DNA by polymerase chain reaction (DNA PCR) amplification in a negative histopathology test. Adverse pregnancy outcomes investigated included low birth weight (birth weight below 2.5 kg), prematurity (live birth below 37 weeks), and small-for-gestational-age (SGA) (live born with a birth weight below 10th percentile for gestational age and sex). Weighted baseline category logit, log-binomial, and log-Poisson models were used to assess factors associated with placental malaria, and its association with adverse pregnancy outcomes. RESULTS: Among 1115 women who had histopathology and DNA PCR performed, 93 (8%) had HP placental infection, and 136 (12%) had the sub-microscopic placental infection. The risk of sub-microscopic placental malaria was greater in women who did not use mosquito prevention methods such as bed nets, fumigation, or mosquito coils (odds ratio (OR) = 1.75; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05-2.92; P = 0.03) and in women who were anemic (OR = 1.59; 95% CI: 1.20-2.11; P = 0.001). Women who were underweight had reduced odds of sub-microscopic placental malaria infection (OR = 0.33; 95% CI: 0.17-0.62; P = 0.001). Women who were overweight/obese had 1.48 times higher the odds of HP placental malaria compared to normal weight (OR = 1.48; 95% CI: 1.03-2.11; P = 0.03). HP placental malaria infection was associated with an increased risk of SGA births (RR = 1.30, 95% CI: 0.98-1.72, P = 0.07). In contrast, the sub-microscopic infection was associated with a reduced risk of SGA births (RR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.43-0.88, P = 0.01). Placental malaria was not associated with low birth weight or prematurity. CONCLUSION: Malaria prevention methods and maternal nutrition status during early pregnancy were important predictors of sub-microscopic placental malaria. More research is needed to understand sub-microscopic placental malaria and the possible mechanisms mediating the association between placental malaria and SGA.

Short-course amphotericin B in addition to sertraline and fluconazole for treatment of HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis in rural Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Cryptococcal meningitis accounts for 15% of all AIDS mortality globally. Most cases in low- and middle-income countries are treated with fluconazole monotherapy, which is associated with a high mortality. New available therapies are needed. Short-course amphotericin B has been shown to be a safe and efficient therapeutic option. Sertraline has in vitro fungicidal activity against Cryptococcus and bi-directional synergy with fluconazole. METHODS: We conducted an open-label clinical trial to assess the safety and efficacy of sertraline 400 mg/day and fluconazole 1200 mg/day (n = 28) vs sertraline, fluconazole and additional 5 days of amphotericin B deoxycholate 0.7-1 mg/kg (n = 18) for cryptococcal meningitis. RESULTS: Two-week survival was 64% (18/28) without amphotericin and 89% (16/18) with amphotericin, and 10-week survival was 21% (6/28) vs 61% (11/18), respectively (P = .012). The cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) Cryptococcus clearance rate was 0.264 log10 colony-forming units (CFU)/mL of CSF/day (95% CI: 0.112-0.416) without amphotericin and 0.473 log10 CFU/mL/day (95% CI: 0.344-0.60) with short-course amphotericin (P = .03). Sertraline was discontinued in one participant due to side effects. Four participants receiving amphotericin B experienced hypokalemia <2.4 mEq/L. CONCLUSIONS: Short-course amphotericin substantially increased CSF clearance and 10-week survival. Adjunctive sertraline improved 2-week CSF fungal clearance but did not improve 10-week mortality compared with published data using fluconazole 1200 mg/day monotherapy (early fungicidal activity 0.15 log10 CFU/mL/day).

Age-related comorbidities and mortality in people living with HIV in rural Tanzania.

OBJECTIVE: Causes of morbidity and mortality of people living with HIV are changing with access to antiretroviral therapy and increased life expectancy. Age-related data on comorbidities and their impact on mortality in sub-Saharan Africa are scarce. DESIGN: This prospective analysis evaluated comorbidities, assessed by means of International Classification of Diseases and Related Health problems 10th revision codes and clinical variables, derived from data collected from the Kilombero & Ulanga antiretroviral cohort of people living with HIV in rural Tanzania. METHODS: We calculated prevalences and incidences of comorbidities in patients enrolled from 2013 to 2017 and evaluated their association with a combined endpoint of death and loss to follow-up (LTFU) in various age groups (15-29, 30-49 and ≥50 years) using Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: Of 1622 patients [65% females, median age 38 years (interquartile range 31-46)], 11% were at least 50 years. During a median follow-up of 22.1 months (interquartile range 10.6-37.3), 48 (2.9%) patients died and 306 (18.9%) were LTFU. Anaemia was the most prevalent comorbidity (66.3%) irrespective of age and was associated with increased mortality/LTFU [hazard ratios 2.02 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.57-2.60); P < 0.001]. In patients aged at least 50 years, arterial hypertension was highly prevalent (43.8%), but not associated with mortality/LTFU [hazard ratios 1.04 (95% CI 0.56-1.93), P = 0.9]. Undernutrition ranged from 25.5% in the youngest to 29.1% in the oldest age group and contributed to mortality/LTFU [hazard ratios 2.24 (95% CI 1.65-3.04); P < 0.001]. Prevalence of tuberculosis was 21.4% with hazard ratios of 2.54 (95% CI 1.72-3.75, P < 0.001) for mortality/LTFU. CONCLUSION: We show that anaemia, arterial hypertension and undernutrition are the most relevant comorbidities with different age-associated frequencies and impact on death/LTFU in this population.

Laboratory-Reflex Cryptococcal Antigen Screening Is Associated With a Survival Benefit in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Cryptococcal antigen (CrAg) screening in persons with advanced HIV/AIDS is recommended to prevent death. Implementing CrAg screening only in outpatients may underestimate the true CrAg prevalence and decrease its potential impact. Our previous 12-month survival/retention in CrAg-positive persons not treated with fluconazole was 0%. METHODS: HIV testing was offered to all antiretroviral therapy-naive outpatients and hospitalized patients in Ifakara, Tanzania, followed by laboratory-reflex CrAg screening for CD4 <150 cells/µL. CrAg-positive individuals were offered lumbar punctures, and antifungals were tailored to the presence/absence of meningitis. We assessed the impact on survival and retention-in-care using multivariate Cox-regression models. RESULTS: We screened 560 individuals for CrAg. The median CD4 count was 61 cells/µL (interquartile range 26-103). CrAg prevalence was 6.1% (34/560) among individuals with CD4 ≤150 and 7.5% among ≤100 cells/µL. CrAg prevalence was 2.3-fold higher among hospitalized participants than in outpatients (12% vs 5.3%, P = 0.02). We performed lumbar punctures in 94% (32/34), and 31% (10/34) had cryptococcal meningitis. Mortality did not differ significantly between treated CrAg-positive without meningitis and CrAg-negative individuals (7.3 vs 5.4 deaths per 100 person-years, respectively, P = 0.25). Independent predictors of 6-month death/lost to follow-up were low CD4, cryptococcal meningitis (adjusted hazard ratio 2.76, 95% confidence interval: 1.31 to 5.82), and no antiretroviral therapy initiation (adjusted hazard ratio 3.12, 95% confidence interval: 2.16 to 4.50). CONCLUSIONS: Implementing laboratory-reflex CrAg screening among outpatients and hospitalized individuals resulted in a rapid detection of cryptococcosis and a survival benefit. These results provide a model of a feasible, effective, and scalable CrAg screening and treatment strategy integrated into routine care in sub-Saharan Africa.

Cohort profile: The Kilombero and Ulanga Antiretroviral Cohort (KIULARCO) - A prospective HIV cohort in rural Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: The Kilombero and Ulanga Antiretroviral Cohort (KIULARCO) is a single-site, open and ongoing prospective cohort of people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLWHIV) established in 2005 at the Chronic Diseases Clinic of Ifakara (CDCI), within the Saint Francis Referral Hospital (SFRH) in Ifakara, Tanzania. The objectives of KIULARCO are to (i) provide patient and cohort-level information on the outcomes of HIV treatment; (ii) provide cohort-level information on opportunistic infections and comorbidities; (iii) evaluate aspects of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care and treatment that have national or international policy relevance; (iv) provide a platform for studies on improving HIV care and treatment in sub-Saharan Africa; and (v) contribute to generating local capacity to deal with the challenges posed by the HIV/AIDS pandemic in this region. Moreover, KIULARCO may serve as a model for other healthcare settings in rural sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: Since 2005, all patients diagnosed with HIV at the Saint Francis Referral Hospital are invited to participate in the cohort, including non-pregnant adults, pregnant women, adolescents, children and infants. The information collected includes demographics, baseline and follow-up clinical data, laboratory data, medication history, drug toxicities, diagnoses and outcomes. Real-time data are captured during the patient encounter through an electronic medical record system that allowed transition to a paperless clinic in 2013. In addition, KIULARCO is associated with a biobank of cryopreserved plasma samples and cell pellets collected from all participants before and at different time-points during antiretroviral treatment. RESULTS: Up to the end of 2016, 12 185 PLWHIV have been seen at the CDCI; 9218 (76%) of whom have been enrolled into KIULARCO and 6965 (76%) of these have received ART from the clinic. Patients on ART attend at least every 3 months, with laboratory monitoring every 6 months. KIULARCO data have been used to generate relevant information regarding ART outcomes, opportunistic infections, non-AIDS comorbidities, prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, paediatric HIV, and mortality and retention in care. Requests for collaborations on analyses can be submitted to the KIULARCO scientific committee. CONCLUSIONS: KIULARCO provides a framework for improving the quality of care of people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, to generate relevant information to evaluate ART programmes and to build local capacity to deal with HIV/AIDS. The comprehensiveness of the data collected, together with the biobank spanning over ten years has created a unique research platform in rural sub-Saharan Africa.

Prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV Option B+ cascade in rural Tanzania: The One Stop Clinic model.

BACKGROUND: Strategies to improve the uptake of Prevention of Mother-To-Child Transmission of HIV (PMTCT) are needed. We integrated HIV and maternal, newborn and child health services in a One Stop Clinic to improve the PMTCT cascade in a rural Tanzanian setting. METHODS: The One Stop Clinic of Ifakara offers integral care to HIV-infected pregnant women and their families at one single place and time. All pregnant women and HIV-exposed infants attended during the first year of Option B+ implementation (04/2014-03/2015) were included. PMTCT was assessed at the antenatal clinic (ANC), HIV care and labour ward, and compared with the pre-B+ period. We also characterised HIV-infected pregnant women and evaluated the MTCT rate. RESULTS: 1,579 women attended the ANC. Seven (0.4%) were known to be HIV-infected. Of the remainder, 98.5% (1,548/1,572) were offered an HIV test, 94% (1,456/1,548) accepted and 38 (2.6%) tested HIV-positive. 51 were re-screened for HIV during late pregnancy and one had seroconverted. The HIV prevalence at the ANC was 3.1% (46/1,463). Of the 39 newly diagnosed women, 35 (90%) were linked to care. HIV test was offered to >98% of ANC clients during both the pre- and post-B+ periods. During the post-B+ period, test acceptance (94% versus 90.5%, p<0.0001) and linkage to care (90% versus 26%, p<0.0001) increased. Ten additional women diagnosed outside the ANC were linked to care. 82% (37/45) of these newly-enrolled women started antiretroviral treatment (ART). After a median time of 17 months, 27% (12/45) were lost to follow-up. 79 women under HIV care became pregnant and all received ART. After a median follow-up time of 19 months, 6% (5/79) had been lost. 5,727 women delivered at the hospital, 20% (1,155/5,727) had unknown HIV serostatus. Of these, 30% (345/1,155) were tested for HIV, and 18/345 (5.2%) were HIV-positive. Compared to the pre-B+ period more women were tested during labour (30% versus 2.4%, p<0.0001). During the study, the MTCT rate was 2.2%. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of Option B+ through an integrated service delivery model resulted in universal HIV testing in the ANC, high rates of linkage to care, and MTCT below the elimination threshold. However, HIV testing in late pregnancy and labour, and retention during early ART need to be improved.

Incidence and risk factors for hypertension among HIV patients in rural Tanzania - A prospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Scarce data are available on the epidemiology of hypertension among HIV patients in rural sub-Saharan Africa. We explored the prevalence, incidence and risk factors for incident hypertension among patients who were enrolled in a rural HIV cohort in Tanzania. METHODS: Prospective longitudinal study including HIV patients enrolled in the Kilombero and Ulanga Antiretroviral Cohort between 2013 and 2015. Non-ART naïve subjects at baseline and pregnant women during follow-up were excluded from the analysis. Incident hypertension was defined as systolic blood pressure ≥ 140 mmHg and/or diastolic blood pressure ≥ 90 mmHg on two consecutive visits. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association of baseline characteristics and incident hypertension. RESULTS: Among 955 ART-naïve, eligible subjects, 111 (11.6%) were hypertensive at recruitment. Ten women were excluded due to pregnancy. The remaining 834 individuals contributed 7967 person-months to follow-up (median 231 days, IQR 119-421) and 80 (9.6%) of them developed hypertension during a median follow-up of 144 days from time of enrolment into the cohort [incidence rate 120.0 cases/1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval (CI) 97.2-150.0]. ART was started in 630 (75.5%) patients, with a median follow-up on ART of 7 months (IQR 4-14). Cox regression models identified age [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.34 per 10 years increase, 95% CI 1.07-1.68, p = 0.010], body mass index (aHR per 5 kg/m2 1.45, 95% CI 1.07-1.99, p = 0.018) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (aHR < 60 versus ≥ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 3.79, 95% CI 1.60-8.99, p = 0.003) as independent risk factors for hypertension development. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence and incidence of hypertension were high in our cohort. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors predicted incident hypertension, but no association was observed with immunological or ART status. These data support the implementation of routine hypertension screening and integrated management into HIV programmes in rural sub-Saharan Africa.

Polymorphisms in NEIL-2, APE-1, CYP2E1 and MDM2 Genes are Independent Predictors of Gastric Cancer Risk in a Northern Jiangsu Population (China).

China is one of the countries with the highest incidence of gastric cancer, and accounts for over 40% of all new gastric cancer cases in the world. Genetic factors as well as environmental factors play a role in development of gastric cancer. To investigate the independent roles of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in base excision repair (BER) genes (APE1 and NEIL2), carcinogen metabolism gene (CYP2E1) and tumor suppressor pathway gene (MDM2) for gastric cancer susceptibility in a Chinese population, we conducted a hospital based case-control study to evaluate the potential association between these polymorphisms and susceptibility to gastric cancer in a Northern Jiangsu population. We also associated the NEIL-2 mRNA expression with the studied NEIL2 SNP genotypes to assess whether the genotypes have influence on the NEIL2 mRNA (hence protein) expression. Five SNPs, APE 1 (rs2275008), NEIL 2 (rs804270), MDM2 (rs2279744), and CYP 2E1 (rs2480256 and rs2031920), were genotyped by TaqMan assays in 105 gastric cancer cases and 118 controls. Genotype frequency distribution showed that the APE 1 SNP (rs2275008), NEIL 2 SNP (rs804270), MDM2 SNP (rs2279744), and CYP 2E1 SNP (rs2031920) had more mutant alleles in gastric cancer cases than controls (76.19, 68.57, 54.29, and 43.81%, respectively), while CYP 2E1 SNP (rs2480256) had large percentage of both alleles (43.81%). Risk analysis revealed that there was increased risk for gastric cancer in subjects with mutant alleles in APE 1 (rs2275008: OR 5.49, 95% CI = 2.6-5.7, p <.0001), NEIL 2 (rs804270: OR 2.3, 95% CI = 1.22-4.3, p=0.01), MDM2 (rs2279744: OR 14.65, 95% CI = 5.63-8.15, p < .0001), and CYP 2E1 (rs2031920: OR 8.385, 95% CI = 3.2-5.3, p < .0001) SNPs. Moreover, the NEIL2 mRNA expression analysis showed that there was significant differential expression of NEIL2 mRNA among the randomly tested NEIL2 genotypes (p = 0.005), with low expression seen in variant genotypes than in other genotypes. In conclusion, variant alleles in the NEIL2 (rs804270), APE1 (rs2275008), CYP2E1 (rs2031920) and MDM2 (rs2279744) SNPs may independently influence susceptibility to gastric cancer in a Northern Jiangsu Chinese population. The genotypes may also independently influence their respective gene mRNA expression, as seen in our study, where there was differential expression of the NEIL2 mRNA among the genotypes, with low NEIL2 mRNA expression seen in the variant genotype.