A model-free approach to do long-term volatility forecasting and its variants.

Volatility forecasting is important in financial econometrics and is mainly based on the application of various GARCH-type models. However, it is difficult to choose a specific GARCH model that works uniformly well across datasets, and the traditional methods are unstable when dealing with highly volatile or short-sized datasets. The newly proposed normalizing and variance stabilizing (NoVaS) method is a more robust and accurate prediction technique that can help with such datasets. This model-free method was originally developed by taking advantage of an inverse transformation based on the frame of the ARCH model. In this study, we conduct extensive empirical and simulation analyses to investigate whether it provides higher-quality long-term volatility forecasting than standard GARCH models. Specifically, we found this advantage to be more prominent with short and volatile data. Next, we propose a variant of the NoVaS method that possesses a more complete form and generally outperforms the current state-of-the-art NoVaS method. The uniformly superior performance of NoVaS-type methods encourages their wide application in volatility forecasting. Our analyses also highlight the flexibility of the NoVaS idea that allows the exploration of other model structures to improve existing models or solve specific prediction problems.

An NLP-assisted Bayesian time-series analysis for prevalence of Twitter cyberbullying during the COVID-19 pandemic.

COVID-19 has brought about many changes in social dynamics. Stay-at-home orders and disruptions in school teaching can influence bullying behavior in-person and online, both of which leading to negative outcomes in victims. To study cyberbullying specifically, 1 million tweets containing keywords associated with abuse were collected from the beginning of 2019 to the end of 2021 with the Twitter API search endpoint. A natural language processing model pre-trained on a Twitter corpus generated probabilities for the tweets being offensive and hateful. To overcome limitations of sampling, data were also collected using the count endpoint. The fraction of tweets from a given daily sample marked as abusive is multiplied to the number reported by the count endpoint. Once these adjusted counts are assembled, a Bayesian autoregressive Poisson model allows one to study the mean trend and lag functions of the data and how they vary over time. The results reveal strong weekly and yearly seasonality in hateful speech but with slight differences across years that may be attributed to COVID-19.

Provable training of a ReLU gate with an iterative non-gradient algorithm.

In this work, we demonstrate provable guarantees on the training of a single ReLU gate in hitherto unexplored regimes. We give a simple iterative stochastic algorithm that can train a ReLU gate in the realizable setting in linear time while using significantly milder conditions on the data distribution than previous such results. Leveraging certain additional moment assumptions, we also show a first-of-its-kind approximate recovery of the true label generating parameters under an (online) data-poisoning attack on the true labels, while training a ReLU gate by the same algorithm. Our guarantee is shown to be nearly optimal in the worst case and its accuracy of recovering the true weight degrades gracefully with increasing probability of attack and its magnitude. For both the realizable and the non-realizable cases as outlined above, our analysis allows for mini-batching and computes how the convergence time scales with the mini-batch size. We corroborate our theorems with simulation results which also bring to light a striking similarity in trajectories between our algorithm and the popular S.G.D. algorithm - for which similar guarantees as here are still unknown.