Recommendations for quantifying and reducing uncertainty in climate projections of species distributions.

Projecting the future distributions of commercially and ecologically important species has become a critical approach for ecosystem managers to strategically anticipate change, but large uncertainties in projections limit climate adaptation planning. Although distribution projections are primarily used to understand the scope of potential change-rather than accurately predict specific outcomes-it is nonetheless essential to understand where and why projections can give implausible results and to identify which processes contribute to uncertainty. Here, we use a series of simulated species distributions, an ensemble of 252 species distribution models, and an ensemble of three regional ocean climate projections, to isolate the influences of uncertainty from earth system model spread and from ecological modeling. The simulations encompass marine species with different functional traits and ecological preferences to more broadly address resource manager and fishery stakeholder needs, and provide a simulated true state with which to evaluate projections. We present our results relative to the degree of environmental extrapolation from historical conditions, which helps facilitate interpretation by ecological modelers working in diverse systems. We found uncertainty associated with species distribution models can exceed uncertainty generated from diverging earth system models (up to 70% of total uncertainty by 2100), and that this result was consistent across species traits. Species distribution model uncertainty increased through time and was primarily related to the degree to which models extrapolated into novel environmental conditions but moderated by how well models captured the underlying dynamics driving species distributions. The predictive power of simulated species distribution models remained relatively high in the first 30 years of projections, in alignment with the time period in which stakeholders make strategic decisions based on climate information. By understanding sources of uncertainty, and how they change at different forecast horizons, we provide recommendations for projecting species distribution models under global climate change.

Effects of Embryonic Exposure to Salinity Stress or Hypoxia on Post-metamorphic Growth and Survival of the Polychaete Capitella teleta.

Although a good number of studies have investigated the impact of larval experience on aspects of post-metamorphic performance, only a few have considered the potential impact of stresses experienced by brooded embryos. In this study we separately investigated the impact of salinity stress (as low as 10) and hypoxia (1 ml O2 l-1) experienced by brooded embryos of the deposit-feeding polychaete Capitella teleta on hatching success, metamorphosis, post-metamorphic survival, and post-metamorphic growth. Salinity reduction from 30 to 10 or 15 reduced relative hatching success, presumably by reducing embryonic survival, but generally had no negative latent effects on juvenile survival or growth. Prolonged exposure to hypoxic conditions had no negative effects, as seen on measurements recorded, other than abandonment of brood tubes by some females. There were no negative effects on days to emergence from brood tubes, numbers of larvae emerging from brood tubes, juvenile survival, or juvenile growth. Future studies should consider the potential role of maternal behavior in protecting embryos from at least short-term exposures to hypoxia, and the capacity for anaerobic metabolism in both embryos and adults of this species.