Developing a predictive science of the biosphere requires the integration of scientific cultures.

Increasing the speed of scientific progress is urgently needed to address the many challenges associated with the biosphere in the Anthropocene. Consequently, the critical question becomes: How can science most rapidly progress to address large, complex global problems? We suggest that the lag in the development of a more predictive science of the biosphere is not only because the biosphere is so much more complex, or because we do not have enough data, or are not doing enough experiments, but, in large part, because of unresolved tension between the three dominant scientific cultures that pervade the research community. We introduce and explain the concept of the three scientific cultures and present a novel analysis of their characteristics, supported by examples and a formal mathematical definition/representation of what this means and implies. The three cultures operate, to varying degrees, across all of science. However, within the biosciences, and in contrast to some of the other sciences, they remain relatively more separated, and their lack of integration has hindered their potential power and insight. Our solution to accelerating a broader, predictive science of the biosphere is to enhance integration of scientific cultures. The process of integration-Scientific Transculturalism-recognizes that the push for interdisciplinary research, in general, is just not enough. Unless these cultures of science are formally appreciated and their thinking iteratively integrated into scientific discovery and advancement, there will continue to be numerous significant challenges that will increasingly limit forecasting and prediction efforts.

Idea engines: Unifying innovation & obsolescence from markets & genetic evolution to science.

Innovation and obsolescence describe dynamics of ever-churning and adapting social and biological systems, concepts that encompass field-specific formulations. We formalize the connection with a reduced model of the dynamics of the "space of the possible" (e.g., technologies, mutations, theories) to which agents (e.g., firms, organisms, scientists) couple as they grow, die, and replicate. We predict three regimes: The space is finite, ever growing, or a Schumpeterian dystopia in which obsolescence drives the system to collapse. We reveal a critical boundary at which the space of the possible fluctuates dramatically in size, displaying recurrent periods of minimal and of veritable diversity. When the space is finite, corresponding to physically realizable systems, we find surprising structure. This structure predicts a taxonomy for the density of agents near and away from the innovative frontier that we compare with distributions of firm productivity, COVID diversity, and citation rates for scientific publications. Our minimal model derived from first principles aligns with empirical examples, implying a follow-the-leader dynamic in firm cost efficiency and biological evolution, whereas scientific progress reflects consensus that waits on old ideas to go obsolete. Our theory introduces a fresh and empirically testable framework for unifying innovation and obsolescence across fields.

Scaling of Protein Function across the Tree of Life.

Scaling laws are a powerful way to compare genomes because they put all organisms onto a single curve and reveal nontrivial generalities as genomes change in size. The abundance of functional categories across genomes has previously been found to show power law scaling with respect to the total number of functional categories, suggesting that universal constraints shape genomic category abundance. Here, we look across the tree of life to understand how genome evolution may be related to functional scaling. We revisit previous observations of functional genome scaling with an expanded taxonomy by analyzing 3,726 bacterial, 220 archaeal, and 79 unicellular eukaryotic genomes. We find that for some functional classes, scaling is best described by multiple exponents, revealing previously unobserved shifts in scaling as genome-encoded protein annotations increase or decrease. Furthermore, we find that scaling varies between phyletic groups at both the domain and phyla levels and is less universal than previously thought. This variability in functional scaling is not related to taxonomic phylogeny resolved at the phyla level, suggesting that differences in cell plan or physiology outweigh broad patterns of taxonomic evolution. Since genomes are maintained and replicated by the functional proteins encoded by them, these results point to functional degeneracy between taxonomic groups and unique evolutionary trajectories toward these. We also find that individual phyla frequently span scaling exponents of functional classes, revealing that individual clades can move across scaling exponents. Together, our results reveal unique shifts in functions across the tree of life and highlight that as genomes grow or shrink, proteins of various functions may be added or lost.

Scaling behavior for electric vehicle chargers and road map to addressing the infrastructure gap.

Enabling widespread electric vehicle (EV) adoption requires a substantial build-out of charging infrastructure in the coming decade. We formulate the charging infrastructure needs as a scaling analysis problem and use it to estimate the EV infrastructure needs of the USA at a county-level resolution. We find that gasoline and EV charging stations scale sub-linearly with their respective vehicle registrations, recovering the sub-linear scaling typical of infrastructure. Surprisingly, we find that EV charging stations scale super-linearly with population size within counties, deviating from the sub-linear scaling of gasoline stations. We discuss how this demonstrates the infancy of both EVs and EV infrastructure while providing a framework for estimating future EV infrastructure demands. By considering the power delivery of existing gasoline stations, and appropriate EV efficiencies, we estimate the EV infrastructure gap at the county level, providing a road map for future EV infrastructure expansion.

Assembly theory explains and quantifies selection and evolution.

Scientists have grappled with reconciling biological evolution1,2 with the immutable laws of the Universe defined by physics. These laws underpin life's origin, evolution and the development of human culture and technology, yet they do not predict the emergence of these phenomena. Evolutionary theory explains why some things exist and others do not through the lens of selection. To comprehend how diverse, open-ended forms can emerge from physics without an inherent design blueprint, a new approach to understanding and quantifying selection is necessary3-5. We present assembly theory (AT) as a framework that does not alter the laws of physics, but redefines the concept of an 'object' on which these laws act. AT conceptualizes objects not as point particles, but as entities defined by their possible formation histories. This allows objects to show evidence of selection, within well-defined boundaries of individuals or selected units. We introduce a measure called assembly (A), capturing the degree of causation required to produce a given ensemble of objects. This approach enables us to incorporate novelty generation and selection into the physics of complex objects. It explains how these objects can be characterized through a forward dynamical process considering their assembly. By reimagining the concept of matter within assembly spaces, AT provides a powerful interface between physics and biology. It discloses a new aspect of physics emerging at the chemical scale, whereby history and causal contingency influence what exists.

Metabolic compatibility and the rarity of prokaryote endosymbioses.

The evolution of the mitochondria was a significant event that gave rise to the eukaryotic lineage and most large complex life. Central to the origins of the mitochondria was an endosymbiosis between prokaryotes. Yet, despite the potential benefits that can stem from a prokaryotic endosymbiosis, their modern occurrence is exceptionally rare. While many factors may contribute to their rarity, we lack methods for estimating the extent to which they constrain the appearance of a prokaryotic endosymbiosis. Here, we address this knowledge gap by examining the role of metabolic compatibility between a prokaryotic host and endosymbiont. We use genome-scale metabolic flux models from three different collections (AGORA, KBase, and CarveMe) to assess the viability, fitness, and evolvability of potential prokaryotic endosymbioses. We find that while more than half of host-endosymbiont pairings are metabolically viable, the resulting endosymbioses have reduced growth rates compared to their ancestral metabolisms and are unlikely to gain mutations to overcome these fitness differences. In spite of these challenges, we do find that they may be more robust in the face of environmental perturbations at least in comparison with the ancestral host metabolism lineages. Our results provide a critical set of null models and expectations for understanding the forces that shape the structure of prokaryotic life.

Evolutionary scaling of maximum growth rate with organism size.

Data from nearly 1000 species reveal the upper bound to rates of biomass production achievable by natural selection across the Tree of Life. For heterotrophs, maximum growth rates scale positively with organism size in bacteria but negatively in eukaryotes, whereas for phototrophs, the scaling is negligible for cyanobacteria and weakly negative for eukaryotes. These results have significant implications for understanding the bioenergetic consequences of the transition from prokaryotes to eukaryotes, and of the expansion of some groups of the latter into multicellularity. The magnitudes of the scaling coefficients for eukaryotes are significantly lower than expected under any proposed physical-constraint model. Supported by genomic, bioenergetic, and population-genetic data and theory, an alternative hypothesis for the observed negative scaling in eukaryotes postulates that growth-diminishing mutations with small effects passively accumulate with increasing organism size as a consequence of associated increases in the power of random genetic drift. In contrast, conditional on the structural and functional features of ribosomes, natural selection has been able to promote bacteria with the fastest possible growth rates, implying minimal conflicts with both bioenergetic constraints and random genetic drift. If this extension of the drift-barrier hypothesis is correct, the interpretations of comparative studies of biological traits that have traditionally ignored differences in population-genetic environments will require revisiting.

A general theory for temperature dependence in biology.

At present, there is no simple, first principles-based, and general model for quantitatively describing the full range of observed biological temperature responses. Here we derive a general theory for temperature dependence in biology based on Eyring-Evans-Polanyi's theory for chemical reaction rates. Assuming only that the conformational entropy of molecules changes with temperature, we derive a theory for the temperature dependence of enzyme reaction rates which takes the form of an exponential function modified by a power law and that describes the characteristic asymmetric curved temperature response. Based on a few additional principles, our model can be used to predict the temperature response above the enzyme level, thus spanning quantum to classical scales. Our theory provides an analytical description for the shape of temperature response curves and demonstrates its generality by showing the convergence of all temperature dependence responses onto universal relationships-a universal data collapse-under appropriate normalization and by identifying a general optimal temperature, around 25 ∘C, characterizing all temperature response curves. The model provides a good fit to empirical data for a wide variety of biological rates, times, and steady-state quantities, from molecular to ecological scales and across multiple taxonomic groups (from viruses to mammals). This theory provides a simple framework to understand and predict the impact of temperature on biological quantities based on the first principles of thermodynamics, bridging quantum to classical scales.

Traditional protocols and optimization methods lead to absent expression in a mycoplasma cell-free gene expression platform.

Cell-free expression (CFE) systems are one of the main platforms for building synthetic cells. A major drawback is the orthogonality of cell-free systems across species. To generate a CFE system compatible with recently established minimal cell constructs, we attempted to optimize a Mycoplasma bacterium-based CFE system using lysates of the genome-minimized cell JCVI-syn3A (Syn3A) and its close phylogenetic relative Mycoplasma capricolum (Mcap). To produce mycoplasma-derived crude lysates, we systematically tested methods commonly used for bacteria, based on the S30 protocol of Escherichia coli. Unexpectedly, after numerous attempts to optimize lysate production methods or composition of feeding buffer, none of the Mcap or Syn3A lysates supported cell-free gene expression. Only modest levels of in vitro transcription of RNA aptamers were observed. While our experimental systems were intended to perform transcription and translation, our assays focused on RNA. Further investigations identified persistently high ribonuclease (RNase) activity in all lysates, despite removal of recognizable nucleases from the respective genomes and attempts to inhibit nuclease activities in assorted CFE preparations. An alternative method using digitonin to permeabilize the mycoplasma cell membrane produced a lysate with diminished RNase activity yet still was unable to support cell-free gene expression. We found that intact mycoplasma cells poisoned E. coli cell-free extracts by degrading ribosomal RNAs, indicating that the mycoplasma cells, even the minimal cell, have a surface-associated RNase activity. However, it is not clear which gene encodes the RNase. This work summarizes attempts to produce mycoplasma-based CFE and serves as a cautionary tale for researchers entering this field. Graphical Abstract.

Protein degradation sets the fraction of active ribosomes at vanishing growth.

Growing cells adopt common basic strategies to achieve optimal resource allocation under limited resource availability. Our current understanding of such "growth laws" neglects degradation, assuming that it occurs slowly compared to the cell cycle duration. Here we argue that this assumption cannot hold at slow growth, leading to important consequences. We propose a simple framework showing that at slow growth protein degradation is balanced by a fraction of "maintenance" ribosomes. Consequently, active ribosomes do not drop to zero at vanishing growth, but as growth rate diminishes, an increasing fraction of active ribosomes performs maintenance. Through a detailed analysis of compiled data, we show that the predictions of this model agree with data from E. coli and S. cerevisiae. Intriguingly, we also find that protein degradation increases at slow growth, which we interpret as a consequence of active waste management and/or recycling. Our results highlight protein turnover as an underrated factor for our understanding of growth laws across kingdoms.

Diffusion control in biochemical specificity.

Biochemical specificity is critical in enzyme function, evolution, and engineering. Here we employ an established kinetic model to dissect the effects of reactant geometry and diffusion on product formation speed and accuracy in the presence of cognate (correct) and near-cognate (incorrect) substrates. Using this steady-state model for spherical geometries, we find that, for distinct kinetic regimes, the speed and accuracy of the reactions are optimized on different regions of the geometric landscape. From this model we deduce that accuracy can be strongly dependent on reactant geometric properties even for chemically limited reactions. Notably, substrates with a specific geometry and reactivity can be discriminated by the enzyme with higher efficacy than others through purely diffusive effects. For similar cognate and near-cognate substrate geometries (as is the case for polymerases or the ribosome), we observe that speed and accuracy are maximized in opposing regions of the geometric landscape. We also show that, in relevant environments, diffusive effects on accuracy can be substantial even far from extreme kinetic conditions. Finally, we find how reactant chemical discrimination and diffusion can be related to simultaneously optimize steady-state flux and accuracy. These results highlight how diffusion and geometry can be employed to enhance reaction speed and discrimination, and similarly how they impose fundamental restraints on these quantities.

Scaling laws in enzyme function reveal a new kind of biochemical universality.

All life on Earth is unified by its use of a shared set of component chemical compounds and reactions, providing a detailed model for universal biochemistry. However, this notion of universality is specific to known biochemistry and does not allow quantitative predictions about examples not yet observed. Here, we introduce a more generalizable concept of biochemical universality that is more akin to the kind of universality found in physics. Using annotated genomic datasets including an ensemble of 11,955 metagenomes, 1,282 archaea, 11,759 bacteria, and 200 eukaryotic taxa, we show how enzyme functions form universality classes with common scaling behavior in their relative abundances across the datasets. We verify that these scaling laws are not explained by the presence of compounds, reactions, and enzyme functions shared across known examples of life. We demonstrate how these scaling laws can be used as a tool for inferring properties of ancient life by comparing their predictions with a consensus model for the last universal common ancestor (LUCA). We also illustrate how network analyses shed light on the functional principles underlying the observed scaling behaviors. Together, our results establish the existence of a new kind of biochemical universality, independent of the details of life on Earth's component chemistry, with implications for guiding our search for missing biochemical diversity on Earth or for biochemistries that might deviate from the exact chemical makeup of life as we know it, such as at the origins of life, in alien environments, or in the design of synthetic life.

Systematic shifts in scaling behavior based on organizational strategy in universities.

To build better theories of cities, companies, and other social institutions such as universities, requires that we understand the tradeoffs and complementarities that exist between their core functions, and that we understand bounds to their growth. Scaling theory has been a powerful tool for addressing such questions in diverse physical, biological and urban systems, revealing systematic quantitative regularities between size and function. Here we apply scaling theory to the social sciences, taking a synoptic view of an entire class of institutions. The United States higher education system serves as an ideal case study, since it includes over 5,800 institutions with shared broad objectives, but ranges in strategy from vocational training to the production of novel research, contains public, nonprofit and for-profit models, and spans sizes from 10 to roughly 100,000 enrolled students. We show that, like organisms, ecosystems and cities, universities and colleges scale in a surprisingly systematic fashion following simple power-law behavior. Comparing seven commonly accepted sectors of higher education organizations, we find distinct regimes of scaling between a school's total enrollment and its expenditures, revenues, graduation rates and economic added value. Our results quantify how each sector leverages specific economies of scale to address distinct priorities. Taken together, the scaling of features within a sector along with the shifts in scaling across sectors implies that there are generic mechanisms and constraints shared by all sectors, which lead to tradeoffs between their different societal functions and roles. We highlight the strong complementarity between public and private research universities, and community and state colleges, that all display superlinear returns to scale. In contrast to the scaling of biological systems, our results highlight that much of the observed scaling behavior is modulated by the particular strategies of organizations rather than an immutable set of constraints.

Scaling of urban income inequality in the USA.

Urban scaling analysis, the study of how aggregated urban features vary with the population of an urban area, provides a promising framework for discovering commonalities across cities and uncovering dynamics shared by cities across time and space. Here, we use the urban scaling framework to study an important, but under-explored feature in this community-income inequality. We propose a new method to study the scaling of income distributions by analysing total income scaling in population percentiles. We show that income in the least wealthy decile (10%) scales close to linearly with city population, while income in the most wealthy decile scale with a significantly superlinear exponent. In contrast to the superlinear scaling of total income with city population, this decile scaling illustrates that the benefits of larger cities are increasingly unequally distributed. For the poorest income deciles, cities have no positive effect over the null expectation of a linear increase. We repeat our analysis after adjusting income by housing cost, and find similar results. We then further analyse the shapes of income distributions. First, we find that mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis of income distributions all increase with city size. Second, the Kullback-Leibler divergence between a city's income distribution and that of the largest city decreases with city population, suggesting the overall shape of income distribution shifts with city population. As most urban scaling theories consider densifying interactions within cities as the fundamental process leading to the superlinear increase of many features, our results suggest this effect is only seen in the upper deciles of the cities. Our finding encourages future work to consider heterogeneous models of interactions to form a more coherent understanding of urban scaling.

The Multiple Paths to Multiple Life.

We argue for multiple forms of life realized through multiple different historical pathways. From this perspective, there have been multiple origins of life on Earth-life is not a universal homology. By broadening the class of originations, we significantly expand the data set for searching for life. Through a computational analogy, the origin of life describes both the origin of hardware (physical substrate) and software (evolved function). Like all information-processing systems, adaptive systems possess a nested hierarchy of levels, a level of function optimization (e.g., fitness maximization), a level of constraints (e.g., energy requirements), and a level of materials (e.g., DNA or RNA genome and cells). The functions essential to life are realized by different substrates with different efficiencies. The functional level allows us to identify multiple origins of life by searching for key principles of optimization in different material form, including the prebiotic origin of proto-cells, the emergence of culture, economic, and legal institutions, and the reproduction of software agents.

The Grayness of the Origin of Life.

In the search for life beyond Earth, distinguishing the living from the non-living is paramount. However, this distinction is often elusive, as the origin of life is likely a stepwise evolutionary process, not a singular event. Regardless of the favored origin of life model, an inherent "grayness" blurs the theorized threshold defining life. Here, we explore the ambiguities between the biotic and the abiotic at the origin of life. The role of grayness extends into later transitions as well. By recognizing the limitations posed by grayness, life detection researchers will be better able to develop methods sensitive to prebiotic chemical systems and life with alternative biochemistries.

Generalized Stoichiometry and Biogeochemistry for Astrobiological Applications.

A central need in the field of astrobiology is generalized perspectives on life that make it possible to differentiate abiotic and biotic chemical systems McKay (2008). A key component of many past and future astrobiological measurements is the elemental ratio of various samples. Classic work on Earth's oceans has shown that life displays a striking regularity in the ratio of elements as originally characterized by Redfield (Redfield 1958; Geider and La Roche 2002; Eighty years of Redfield 2014). The body of work since the original observations has connected this ratio with basic ecological dynamics and cell physiology, while also documenting the range of elemental ratios found in a variety of environments. Several key questions remain in considering how to best apply this knowledge to astrobiological contexts: How can the observed variation of the elemental ratios be more formally systematized using basic biological physiology and ecological or environmental dynamics? How can these elemental ratios be generalized beyond the life that we have observed on our own planet? Here, we expand recently developed generalized physiological models (Kempes et al. 2012, 2016, 2017, 2019) to create a simple framework for predicting the variation of elemental ratios found in various environments. We then discuss further generalizing the physiology for astrobiological applications. Much of our theoretical treatment is designed for in situ measurements applicable to future planetary missions. We imagine scenarios where three measurements can be made-particle/cell sizes, particle/cell stoichiometry, and fluid or environmental stoichiometry-and develop our theory in connection with these often deployed measurements.

Controls on Interspecies Electron Transport and Size Limitation of Anaerobically Methane-Oxidizing Microbial Consortia.

About 382 Tg yr-1 of methane rising through the seafloor is oxidized anaerobically (W. S. Reeburgh, Chem Rev 107:486-513, 2007, https://doi.org/10.1021/cr050362v), preventing it from reaching the atmosphere, where it acts as a strong greenhouse gas. Microbial consortia composed of anaerobic methanotrophic archaea and sulfate-reducing bacteria couple the oxidation of methane to the reduction of sulfate under anaerobic conditions via a syntrophic process. Recent experimental studies and modeling efforts indicate that direct interspecies electron transfer (DIET) is involved in this syntrophy. Here, we explore a fluorescent in situ hybridization-nanoscale secondary ion mass spectrometry data set of large, segregated anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) consortia that reveal a decline in metabolic activity away from the archaeal-bacterial interface and use a process-based model to identify the physiological controls on rates of AOM. Simulations reproducing the observational data reveal that ohmic resistance and activation loss are the two main factors causing the declining metabolic activity, where activation loss dominated at a distance of <8 µm. These voltage losses limit the maximum spatial distance between syntrophic partners with model simulations, indicating that sulfate-reducing bacterial cells can remain metabolically active up to ∼30 µm away from the archaeal-bacterial interface. Model simulations further predict that a hybrid metabolism that combines DIET with a small contribution of diffusive exchange of electron donors can offer energetic advantages for syntrophic consortia.IMPORTANCE Anaerobic oxidation of methane is a globally important, microbially mediated process reducing the emission of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. In this study, we investigate the mechanism of how a microbial consortium consisting of archaea and bacteria carries out this process and how these organisms interact with each other through the sharing of electrons. We present a process-based model validated by novel experimental measurements of the metabolic activity of individual, phylogenetically identified cells in very large (>20-µm-diameter) microbial aggregates. Model simulations indicate that extracellular electron transfer between archaeal and bacterial cells within a consortium is limited by potential losses and suggest that a flexible use of electron donors can provide energetic advantages for syntrophic consortia.