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1.
EClinicalMedicine ; 50: 101500, 2022 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35784436

RESUMO

Background: Cost-effective demand-side interventions are needed to increase childhood immunization. Multiple studies find tying income support programs (≥USD 50 per year) to immunization raises coverage. Research on maximizing impact from small mobile-based conditional cash transfers (mCCTs) (≤USD 15 per fully immunized child) delivered in lower-income settings remains sparse. Methods: Participants in Karachi, Pakistan, were individually randomized into a seven arm, factorial open label study with five mCCT arms, one reminder (SMS) only arm, and one control arm. The mCCT arms varied by amount (high ∼USD 15 per fully immunized child versus low ∼USD 5 per fully immunized child), schedule (flat versus rising payments over the schedule), design (certain versus lottery payments), and payment method (airtime or mobile money). Children were enrolled at BCG, pentavalent-1 (penta-1) or pentavalent-2 (penta-2) vaccination and followed until at least 18 months of age. A serosurvey in 15% sub-sample validated reported study coverage. The full immunization coverage (FIC) at 12 months (primary outcome) was analyzed using logit regression. ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03355989), 3ie registry (58f6ee7725fc1), and AEA RCT Registry (AEARCTR-0001953). Findings: Between November 6, 2017, and October 10, 2018, a total of 11,197 caregiver-child pairs were enrolled, with 1598-1600 caregiver-child pairs per arm. FIC at 12 months was statistically significantly higher for any mCCT versus SMS (OR:1.18, 95% CI: 1.05-1.33; p = 0.005). Within the mCCT arms, FIC was statistically significantly higher for high versus low amount (OR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.04-1.29; p = 0.007), certain versus lottery payment (OR: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.17-1.45; p < 0.001) and airtime versus mobile money (OR: 1.17, 95% CI:1.01-1.36; p = 0.043). There was no statistically significant difference between a flat and increasing schedule (OR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.93-1.15; p = 0.550). SMS had a marginally statistically significant impact on FIC versus control (OR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.00-1.35; p = 0.046). Findings were similar for up-to-date coverage of penta-3, measles-1 and measles-2 at 18 months. Interpretation: Small mCCTs (USD 0.8-2.4 per immunization visit) can increase FIC at 12 months and up-to-date coverage at 18 months at USD 23 per additional fully immunized child, in resource-constrained settings like Pakistan. Design details (certainty, schedule and delivery method of mCCTs) matter as much as the size of payments. Funding: Global Innovation Fund, GiveWell.

2.
BMC Health Serv Res ; 22(1): 727, 2022 Jun 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35650570

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Routine childhood immunization coverage in Pakistan remains sub-par, in part, due to suboptimal utilization of existing vaccination services. Quality of vaccine delivery can affect both supply and demand for immunization, but data for immunization center quality in Pakistan is sparse and in Sindh province in Southern Pakistan, no comprehensive health facility assessment has ever been conducted at a provincial level. We assessed health facilities, specifically immunization centers, and their associated health workers throughout the province to summarize quality of immunization centers.  METHODS: An exhaustive list of health facilities obtained from Sindh's provincial government was included in our analysis, comprising a total of 1396 public, private, and public-private health facilities. We adapted a health facility and health worker assessment survey developed by BASICS and EPI-Sindh to record indicators pertaining to health facility infrastructure, processes and human resources. Using expert panel ranking, we developed critical criteria (the presence of a cold box/refrigerator, vaccinator and vaccination equipment at the immunization center) to indicate the bare minimum items required by immunization centers to vaccinate children. We also categorized other infrastructure, process, and human resource items to determine high, low and moderate function requirements to ascertain quality. We evaluated presence of critical criteria, calculated scores for high, moderate and low function requirements, and displayed frequencies of infrastructure, process and human resource indicators for all immunization centers across Sindh. We analyzed results at the division level and utilized a two-sample independent clustered t-test to test differences in average function requirement scores between facilities that met critical criteria and those that did not. RESULTS: Out of the 1396 health facilities assessed across Sindh province from October 2017 to January 2018, 1236 (88.5%) were operational while 1209 (86.6%) offered vaccination services (immunization centers). Only 793 (65.6%; 793/1209) immunization centers met the critical criteria of having all the following items: vaccinator, a cold box or refrigerator and vaccine supplies. Of the 416 (34.4%; 416/1209) immunization centers that did not meet the critical criteria, most of the centers did not have a cold box or refrigerator (28.3%; 342/1209), followed by lack of vaccines (19.9%; 240/1209), and a vaccinator (13.0%; 157/1209). Of the 2153 healthcare workers interviewed, 1875 (87.1%) were vaccinators, of which 1745 (81.0%; 1745/2153) were male, and had an average of 12.4 years of schooling. A total of 1805 (96.3%; 1805/1875), 1655 (88.3%; 1655/1875) and 1387 (74.0%; 1387/1875) of the vaccinators were trained in vaccination, cold chain and inventory management respectively. CONCLUSION: One out of three immunization centers in Sindh lack the critical components essential for quality vaccination services. While the majority of health workers (>80%) were trained on vaccination and cold chain management, the proportion trained on inventory management was comparatively low. Our findings therefore suggest that suboptimal immunization center quality is partly due to inadequate infrastructure and inefficient processes contributed to an extent, by low levels of inventory management training among vaccinators. Our study presents critical research findings with high-impact policy implications for identifying and addressing gaps to improve vaccination uptake within a low-middle income country setting.


Assuntos
Programas de Imunização , Vacinas , Criança , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Instalações de Saúde , Humanos , Masculino , Paquistão , Vacinação
3.
Int J Infect Dis ; 108: 391-396, 2021 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34087487

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Active tuberculosis (TB) during pregnancy has an adverse effect on maternal and neonatal outcomes. This study analysed the results of a pilot project integrating TB screening into antenatal care (ANC) visits in a high-TB-burden, low-resource setting. METHODS: Data were extracted from the TB screening pilot in obstetrician-gynaecologist clinics of six tertiary care facilities in Karachi, Pakistan from April to December 2017. Data from the verbal symptom screening conducted at each ANC visit for all women and the Xpert MTB/RIF testing for all symptomatic women to investigate TB yield were analysed by assessing the numbers screened, presumptive patients and active TB diagnoses among pregnant women and neonates. RESULTS: Symptom screening was performed on 113,078 pregnant women, 2,965 (2.6%) of whom reported at least one TB symptom. Sputum samples were collected from 2,896 (97.7%) symptomatic women. Of the 27 (0.9%) newly diagnosed bacteriologically positive TB patients, 25 (93%) initiated TB treatment. No case of vertical TB transmission was reported among 26 live births. DISCUSSION: TB screening is feasible and should be implemented during routine ANC visits in high-TB-burden settings. There is a need to explore a multi-faceted approach with inclusion of clinical examination and chest X-rays to diagnose TB in pregnant women.


Assuntos
Mycobacterium tuberculosis , Tuberculose , Feminino , Humanos , Recém-Nascido , Programas de Rastreamento , Paquistão , Projetos Piloto , Gravidez , Cuidado Pré-Natal , Escarro , Tuberculose/diagnóstico , Tuberculose/epidemiologia
4.
Hum Vaccin Immunother ; 17(9): 3247-3258, 2021 09 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33989509

RESUMO

Auto-disable (AD) syringes are specifically designed to prevent syringe reuse. However, the notion that specific AD syringe designs may be unsafe due to reuse concerns related to the syringe's activation point has surfaced. We conducted a systematic review for evidence on the association between AD syringe design and syringe reuse, adverse events following immunization (AEFI), or blood borne virus (BBV) transmission. We found no evidence of an association between AD syringe design and unsafe injection practices including syringe reuse, AEFIs, or BBVs. Authors of three records speculated about the possibility of AD syringe reuse through intentionally defeating the disabling mechanism, and one hinted at the possibility of reuse of larger-than-required syringes, but none reported any actual reuse instance. In contrast to AD syringes, standard disposable syringes continue to be reused; therefore, the global health community should expand the use of AD syringes in both immunization and therapeutic context as an essential strategy for curbing BBV transmission.


Assuntos
Equipamentos Descartáveis , Seringas , Imunização , Programas de Imunização , Injeções
5.
Int J Med Inform ; 149: 104413, 2021 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33652259

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Despite the proliferation of digital interventions such as Electronic Immunization Registries (EIR), currently, there is little evidence regarding the use of EIR data to improve immunization outcomes in resource-constrained settings. To achieve the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of ensuring healthy lives and well-being for all ages, particularly for newborns and children under the age of 5 (goal 3b), it is essential to generate and use quality data for evidence-based decision making to overcome barriers inherent in immunization systems. In Pakistan, only 66 % of children receive all basic vaccinations, and in Sindh province, the number is even lower at 49 %. In 2012, IRD developed and piloted Zindagi Mehfooz (Safe Life; ZM) ElR, an Android-based platform that records and analyses individual-level child data in real-time. In 2017 in collaboration with Expanded Programme for Immunization (EPI) Sindh, ZM was scaled-up across the entire Sindh province and is currently being used by 2521 government vaccinators in 1539 basic health facilities, serving >48 million population. OBJECTIVE: The study aims to demonstrate how big immunization data from the ZM-EIR is being leveraged in Sindh, Pakistan for actionable decision making via three use cases (a) improving performance management of vaccinators to increase geographical coverage, (b) quantifying the impact of provincial accelerated outreach activities, and (c) examining the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on routine immunization coverage to help devise a tailored approach for future efforts. METHODS: From October 2017 to April 2020, more than 2.9 million children and 0.9 million women have been enrolled, and more than 22 million immunization events have been recorded in the ZM-EIR. We extracted de-identified data from ZM-EIR for January 1, 2019 - April 20, 2020, period. Given the needs of each use case, monthly and daily indicators on vaccinator performance (attendance and compliance), daily immunization visits, and the number of antigens administered were calculated. Geo-coordinate data of antigen administration was extracted and displayed on geographic maps using QGIS. All generated reports were shared at fixed frequency with various stakeholders, such as partners at EPI-Sindh, for utilization in decision making and informing policy. RESULT: Our use-cases demonstrate the use of EIR data for data-driven decision making. From January - December 2019, the monthly monitoring of program indicators helped increase the vaccinator attendance from 44% to 88%, while an 85 % increase in geographical coverage was observed in a polio-endemic super high-risk union council (SHRUC) in Karachi. The analysis of daily average antigens administered during accelerated outreach efforts (AOE) as compared to routine activities showed an increase in average daily Pentavalent-3, Measles-1, and Measles-2 vaccines administered by 103%, 154%, and 180% respectively. These findings helped decide to continue the accelerated effort in high-risk areas (compared to the entire province) rather than discontinuing the activity due to high costs. During COVID-19 lockdown, the daily average number of child immunizations reduced from 16,649 to 4335 per day, a decline of 74% compared to 6 months preceding COVID-19 lockdown. ZM-EIR data is currently helping to shape the planning and implementation of critical strategies to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSION: The big data for vaccines generated through EIRs is a powerful tool to monitor immunization work-force and ensure chronically missed communities are identified and covered through targeted strategies. Geospatial data availability and analysis is changing the way EPI review meetings occur with stakeholders, taking data-driven decisions for better planning and resource allocation. In the fight against COVID-19 pandemic, as governments gradually begin to shift from containing the outbreak to strategizing a plan for sustaining the essential health services, the countries that will emerge most successful are likely the ones who can best use technology and real-time data for targeted efforts.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Vacinas , Big Data , Criança , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Tomada de Decisões , Eletrônica , Feminino , Humanos , Imunização , Programas de Imunização , Recém-Nascido , Paquistão , Pandemias , Sistema de Registros , SARS-CoV-2 , Desenvolvimento Sustentável , Vacinação
6.
Lancet Digit Health ; 2(11): e573-e581, 2020 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33328086

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Deep learning-based radiological image analysis could facilitate use of chest x-rays as triage tests for pulmonary tuberculosis in resource-limited settings. We sought to determine whether commercially available chest x-ray analysis software meet WHO recommendations for minimal sensitivity and specificity as pulmonary tuberculosis triage tests. METHODS: We recruited symptomatic adults at the Indus Hospital, Karachi, Pakistan. We compared two software, qXR version 2.0 (qXRv2) and CAD4TB version 6.0 (CAD4TBv6), with a reference of mycobacterial culture of two sputa. We assessed qXRv2 using its manufacturer prespecified threshold score for chest x-ray classification as tuberculosis present versus not present. For CAD4TBv6, we used a data-derived threshold, because it does not have a prespecified one. We tested for non-inferiority to preset WHO recommendations (0·90 for sensitivity, 0·70 for specificity) using a non-inferiority limit of 0·05. We identified factors associated with accuracy by stratification and logistic regression. FINDINGS: We included 2198 (92·7%) of 2370 enrolled participants. 2187 (99·5%) of 2198 were HIV-negative, and 272 (12·4%) had culture-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis. For both software, accuracy was non-inferior to WHO-recommended minimum values (qXRv2 sensitivity 0·93 [95% CI 0·89-0·95], non-inferiority p=0·0002; CAD4TBv6 sensitivity 0·93 [0·90-0·96], p<0·0001; qXRv2 specificity 0·75 [0·73-0·77], p<0·0001; CAD4TBv6 specificity 0·69 [0·67-0·71], p=0·0003). Sensitivity was lower in smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis for both software, and in women for CAD4TBv6. Specificity was lower in men and in those with previous tuberculosis, and reduced with increasing age and decreasing body mass index. Smoking and diabetes did not affect accuracy. INTERPRETATION: In an HIV-negative population, these software met WHO-recommended minimal accuracy for pulmonary tuberculosis triage tests. Sensitivity will be lower when smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis is more prevalent. FUNDING: Canadian Institutes of Health Research.


Assuntos
Aprendizado Profundo , Processamento de Imagem Assistida por Computador/métodos , Pulmão/patologia , Radiologia/métodos , Software , Triagem , Tuberculose Pulmonar/diagnóstico , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Índice de Massa Corporal , Feminino , Infecções por HIV , Humanos , Pulmão/diagnóstico por imagem , Pulmão/microbiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Mycobacterium tuberculosis/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Paquistão , Estudos Prospectivos , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Fatores Sexuais , Escarro/microbiologia , Tuberculose Pulmonar/diagnóstico por imagem , Tuberculose Pulmonar/microbiologia , Raios X , Adulto Jovem
7.
Vaccine ; 38(45): 7146-7155, 2020 10 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32943265

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 pandemic has affected routine immunization globally. Impact will likely be higher in low and middle-income countries with limited healthcare resources and fragile health systems. We quantified the impact, spatial heterogeneity, and determinants for childhood immunizations of 48 million population affected in the Sindh province of Pakistan. METHODS: We extracted individual immunization records from real-time provincial Electronic Immunization Registry from September 23, 2019, to July 11, 2020. Comparing baseline (6 months preceding the lockdown) and the COVID-19 lockdown period, we analyzed the impact on daily immunization coverage rate for each antigen by geographical area. We used multivariable logistic regression to explore the predictors associated with immunizations during the lockdown. RESULTS: There was a 52.5% decline in the daily average total number of vaccinations administered during lockdown compared to baseline. The highest decline was seen for Bacille Cal-mette Guérin (BCG) (40.6% (958/2360) immunization at fixed sites. Around 8438 children/day were missing immunization during the lockdown. Enrollments declined furthest in rural districts, urban sub-districts with large slums, and polio-endemic super high-risk sub-districts. Pentavalent-3 (penta-3) immunization rates were higher in infants born in hospitals (RR: 1.09; 95% CI: 1.04-1.15) and those with mothers having higher education (RR: 1.19-1.50; 95% CI: 1.13-1.65). Likelihood of penta-3 immunization was reduced by 5% for each week of delayed enrollment into the immunization program. CONCLUSION: One out of every two children in Sindh province has missed their routine vaccinations during the provincial COVID-19 lockdown. The pool of un-immunized children is expanding during lockdown, leaving them susceptible to vaccine-preventable diseases. There is a need for tailored interventions to promote immunization visits and safe service delivery. Higher maternal education, facility-based births, and early enrollment into the immunization program continue to show a positive association with immunization uptake, even during a challenging lockdown.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/psicologia , Sarampo/prevenção & controle , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/psicologia , Quarentena , Infecções por Rotavirus/prevenção & controle , Tuberculose Pulmonar/prevenção & controle , Vacinação/estatística & dados numéricos , Vacina BCG/administração & dosagem , Betacoronavirus/patogenicidade , COVID-19 , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/imunologia , Processamento Eletrônico de Dados , Feminino , Humanos , Programas de Imunização/estatística & dados numéricos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Sarampo/epidemiologia , Sarampo/imunologia , Vacina contra Sarampo/administração & dosagem , Paquistão/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/imunologia , Sistema de Registros , Infecções por Rotavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Rotavirus/imunologia , Vacinas contra Rotavirus/administração & dosagem , População Rural , SARS-CoV-2 , Tuberculose Pulmonar/epidemiologia , Tuberculose Pulmonar/imunologia , População Urbana , Vacinação/psicologia , Cobertura Vacinal/estatística & dados numéricos , Vacinas Atenuadas/administração & dosagem
8.
BMC Public Health ; 20(1): 1086, 2020 Jul 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32652969

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Inability to track children's vaccination history coupled with parents' lack of awareness of vaccination due dates compounds the problem of low immunization coverage and timeliness in developing countries. We evaluated the impact of two types of silicone immunization reminder bracelets for children in improving immunization coverage and timeliness of Pentavalent-3 and the Measles-1 vaccines. METHODS: Children < 3 months were enrolled in either of the 2 intervention groups (Alma Sana Bracelet Group and Star Bracelet Group) or the Control group. Children in the intervention groups were provided the two different bracelets at the time of recruitment. Each time the child visited the immunization center, a hole was perforated in the silicone bracelet to denote vaccine administration. Each child was followed up till administration of Measles-1 vaccine or till 12 months of age (if they did not come to the center for vaccination). Data was analyzed using the intention-to-treat population between groups. The unadjusted and adjusted Risk Ratios (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for Pentavalent-3 and Measles-1 coverage at 12 months of age were estimated through bivariate and multivariate analysis. Time-to-Pentavalent-3 and Measles-1 immunization curves were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: A total of 1,445 children were enrolled in the study between July 19, 2017 and October 10, 2017. Baseline characteristics among the three groups were similar. Up-to-date coverage for the Pentavalent-3 /Measles-1 vaccine at 12 months of age was 84.6%/72.0%, 85.4%/70.5% and 83.0%/68.5% in Alma Sana Bracelet group, Star Bracelet group and Control group respectively but the differences were not statistically significant. In the multivariate analysis, neither the Alma Sana bracelet (adjusted RR = 1.01; 95% CI: 0.96-1.06), (adjusted RR: 1.05; 95% CI: 0.97-1.13) nor the Star bracelet (adjusted RR = 1.01; 95% CI: 0.96-1.06) (adjusted RR: 1.03; 95% CI: 0.95-1.11) was significantly associated with Pentavalent-3 vaccination or Measles-1 vaccination. CONCLUSION: Although we did not observe any significant impact of the bracelets on improved immunization coverage and timeliness, our findings add to the existing literature on innovative, low cost reminders for health and make several suggestions for enhancing practical implementation of these tools. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03310762 . Retrospectively Registered on October 16, 2017.


Assuntos
Promoção da Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Programas de Imunização/estatística & dados numéricos , Vacina contra Sarampo/administração & dosagem , Cooperação do Paciente/estatística & dados numéricos , Sistemas de Alerta/estatística & dados numéricos , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Humanos , Imunização , Lactente , Masculino , Sarampo/prevenção & controle , Paquistão , Projetos de Pesquisa , Vacinação/estatística & dados numéricos , Cobertura Vacinal
10.
BMC Public Health ; 19(1): 1421, 2019 Oct 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31666039

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Inability to track children's vaccination history coupled with parents' lack of awareness of vaccination due dates compounds the problem of low immunization coverage and timeliness in developing countries. Traditional Reminder/Recall (RR) interventions such as paper-based immunization cards or mHealth based platforms do not yield optimal results in resource-constrained settings. There is thus a need for a low-cost intervention that can simultaneously stimulate demand and track immunization history to help reduce drop-outs and improve immunization coverage and timeliness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of low-cost vaccine reminder and tracker bracelets for improving routine childhood immunization coverage and timeliness in Pakistani children under 2 years of age. METHODS: The study is an individually randomized, three-arm parallel Randomized Controlled Trial with two intervention groups and one control group. Infants in the two intervention groups will be given two different types of silicone bracelets at the time of recruitment, while infants in the control group will not receive any intervention. The two types of bracelets consist of symbols and/or numbers to denote the EPI vaccination schedule and each time the child will come for vaccination, the study staff will perforate a hole in the appropriate symbol to denote vaccine administration. Therefore, by looking at the bracelet, caregivers will be able to see how many vaccines have been received. Our primary outcome measure is the increase in coverage and timeliness of Pentavalent-3/PCV-3/Polio-3 and Measles-1 vaccine in the intervention versus control groups. A total of 1446 participants will be recruited from 4 Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) centers in Landhi Town, Karachi. Each enrolled child will be followed up till the Measles-1 vaccine is administered, or till eleven months have elapsed since enrolment. DISCUSSION: Participant recruitment commenced on July 19, 2017, and was completed on October 10, 2017. Proposed duration of the study is 18 months and expected end date is December 1, 2018. This study constitutes one of the first attempts to rigorously evaluate an innovative, low-cost vaccine reminder bracelet. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03310762 . Retrospectively Registered on October 16, 2017.


Assuntos
Programas de Imunização/métodos , Esquemas de Imunização , Pais , Sistemas de Alerta , Cobertura Vacinal , Vacinação , Vacinas/administração & dosagem , Cuidadores , Pré-Escolar , Análise Custo-Benefício , Países em Desenvolvimento , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Masculino , Sarampo/prevenção & controle , Paquistão , Poliomielite/prevenção & controle , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , Sistemas de Alerta/instrumentação , Projetos de Pesquisa , Estudos Retrospectivos , População Urbana
11.
JMIR Public Health Surveill ; 4(3): e63, 2018 Sep 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30181112

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Despite the availability of free routine immunizations in low- and middle-income countries, many children are not completely vaccinated, vaccinated late for age, or drop out from the course of the immunization schedule. Without the technology to model and visualize risk of large datasets, vaccinators and policy makers are unable to identify target groups and individuals at high risk of dropping out; thus default rates remain high, preventing universal immunization coverage. Predictive analytics algorithm leverages artificial intelligence and uses statistical modeling, machine learning, and multidimensional data mining to accurately identify children who are most likely to delay or miss their follow-up immunization visits. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to conduct feasibility testing and validation of a predictive analytics algorithm to identify the children who are likely to default on subsequent immunization visits for any vaccine included in the routine immunization schedule. METHODS: The algorithm was developed using 47,554 longitudinal immunization records, which were classified into the training and validation cohorts. Four machine learning models (random forest; recursive partitioning; support vector machines, SVMs; and C-forest) were used to generate the algorithm that predicts the likelihood of each child defaulting from the follow-up immunization visit. The following variables were used in the models as predictors of defaulting: gender of the child, language spoken at the child's house, place of residence of the child (town or city), enrollment vaccine, timeliness of vaccination, enrolling staff (vaccinator or others), date of birth (accurate or estimated), and age group of the child. The models were encapsulated in the predictive engine, which identified the most appropriate method to use in a given case. Each of the models was assessed in terms of accuracy, precision (positive predictive value), sensitivity, specificity and negative predictive value, and area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: Out of 11,889 cases in the validation dataset, the random forest model correctly predicted 8994 cases, yielding 94.9% sensitivity and 54.9% specificity. The C-forest model, SVMs, and recursive partitioning models improved prediction by achieving 352, 376, and 389 correctly predicted cases, respectively, above the predictions made by the random forest model. All models had a C-statistic of 0.750 or above, whereas the highest statistic (AUC 0.791, 95% CI 0.784-0.798) was observed in the recursive partitioning algorithm. CONCLUSIONS: This feasibility study demonstrates that predictive analytics can accurately identify children who are at a higher risk for defaulting on follow-up immunization visits. Correct identification of potential defaulters opens a window for evidence-based targeted interventions in resource limited settings to achieve optimal immunization coverage and timeliness.

12.
Vaccine ; 35(37): 5037-5042, 2017 09 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28802756

RESUMO

Despite multiple rounds of immunization campaigns, it has not been possible to achieve optimum immunization coverage for poliovirus in Pakistan. Supplementary activities to improve coverage of immunization, such as door-to-door campaigns are constrained by several factors including inaccurate hand-drawn maps and a lack of means to objectively monitor field teams in real time, resulting in suboptimal vaccine coverage during campaigns. Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) - based tracking of mobile subscriber identity modules (SIMs) of vaccinators provides a low-cost solution to identify missed areas and ensure effective immunization coverage. We conducted a pilot study to investigate the feasibility of using GSM technology to track vaccinators through observing indicators including acceptability, ease of implementation, costs and scalability as well as the likelihood of ownership by District Health Officials. The real-time location of the field teams was displayed on a GSM tracking web dashboard accessible by supervisors and managers for effective monitoring of workforce attendance including 'time in-time out', and discerning if all target areas - specifically remote and high-risk locations - had been reached. Direct access to this information by supervisors eliminated the possibility of data fudging and inaccurate reporting by workers regarding their mobility. The tracking cost per vaccinator was USD 0.26/month. Our study shows that GSM-based tracking is potentially a cost-efficient approach, results in better monitoring and accountability, is scalable and provides the potential for improved geographic coverage of health services.


Assuntos
Poliomielite/imunologia , Poliomielite/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Imunização/métodos , Programas de Imunização/métodos , Paquistão , Vacina Antipólio Oral/imunologia , Vacina Antipólio Oral/uso terapêutico , Vacinação/métodos
13.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 7(12): e2574, 2013.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24349590

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Dog-bites and rabies are under-reported in developing countries such as Pakistan and there is a poor understanding of the disease burden. We prospectively collected data utilizing mobile phones for dog-bite and rabies surveillance across nine emergency rooms (ER) in Pakistan, recording patient health-seeking behaviors, access to care and analyzed spatial distribution of cases from Karachi. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A total of 6212 dog-bite cases were identified over two years starting in February 2009 with largest number reported from Karachi (59.7%), followed by Peshawar (13.1%) and Hyderabad (11.4%). Severity of dog-bites was assessed using the WHO classification. Forty percent of patients had Category I (least severe) bites, 28.1% had Category II bites and 31.9% had Category III (most severe bites). Patients visiting a large public hospital ER in Karachi were least likely to seek immediate healthcare at non-medical facilities (Odds Ratio = 0.20, 95% CI 0.17-0.23, p-value<0.01), and had shorter mean travel time to emergency rooms, adjusted for age and gender (32.78 min, 95% CI 31.82-33.78, p-value<0.01) than patients visiting hospitals in smaller cities. Spatial analysis of dog-bites in Karachi suggested clustering of cases (Moran's I = 0.02, p value<0.01), and increased risk of exposure in particular around Korangi and Malir that are adjacent to the city's largest abattoir in Landhi. The direct cost of operating the mHealth surveillance system was USD 7.15 per dog-bite case reported, or approximately USD 44,408 over two years. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest significant differences in access to care and health-seeking behaviors in Pakistan following dog-bites. The distribution of cases in Karachi was suggestive of clustering of cases that could guide targeted disease-control efforts in the city. Mobile phone technologies for health (mHealth) allowed for the operation of a national-level disease reporting and surveillance system at a low cost.


Assuntos
Mordeduras e Picadas/epidemiologia , Mordeduras e Picadas/terapia , Monitoramento Epidemiológico , Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde , Aceitação pelo Paciente de Cuidados de Saúde , Topografia Médica , Adolescente , Adulto , Animais , Mordeduras e Picadas/patologia , Telefone Celular , Criança , Cães , Feminino , Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde/economia , Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Masculino , Paquistão/epidemiologia , Aceitação pelo Paciente de Cuidados de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Estudos Prospectivos , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Adulto Jovem
14.
Int J Emerg Med ; 1(3): 201-4, 2008 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-19384517

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Rapid urban growth in developing countries has outpaced the development of health infrastructure, including trauma centers, leading to potential delays in trauma care. This study was conducted in Karachi, a city of 16 million people in Pakistan. AIMS: Our aim was to determine the time taken to reach the nearest 24-h emergency care facility (ECF) and the government-designated trauma center (TC). We also sought to determine the availability of supplies and equipment required for "basic" trauma care at these centers. METHODS: We selected five towns in Karachi that had the highest number of road traffic injuries (RTIs) (as identified through medicolegal records). We then measured the time taken to reach the nearest ECF and the government-designated TC from four compass points within each town. We also asked about the equipment and supplies used in basic trauma care. RESULTS: All three TCs in Karachi were located in the selected towns and were within 5.0-10.5 km of each other. The transport times to the 3 TCs were an average of 13.3 min (+/- 7.1) and to the 16 ECFs an average of 4.7 min (+/- 2.4) (p value < 0.00). Most ECFs did not have all equipment and supplies necessary for basic trauma care; 90% had the basic equipment for management of airway, oxygen, and IV fluids, 70% had morphine, and 45% had C-spine collars. CONCLUSIONS: Vital time is lost in reaching a government-designated TC. ECFs might be an alternative option, but are not fully equipped and funded to provide adequate trauma care to all.

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