The forecasted prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity in people with HIV in the United States through the year 2030: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the medical complexity of people aging with HIV can inform clinical programs and policy to meet future healthcare needs. The objective of our study was to forecast the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity among people with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the United States (US) through 2030. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using the PEARL model-an agent-based simulation of PWH who have initiated ART in the US-the prevalence of anxiety, depression, stage ≥3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), dyslipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, end-stage liver disease (ESLD), myocardial infarction (MI), and multimorbidity (≥2 mental or physical comorbidities, other than HIV) were forecasted through 2030. Simulations were informed by the US CDC HIV surveillance data of new HIV diagnosis and the longitudinal North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) data on risk of comorbidities from 2009 to 2017. The simulated population represented 15 subgroups of PWH including Hispanic, non-Hispanic White (White), and non-Hispanic Black/African American (Black/AA) men who have sex with men (MSM), men and women with history of injection drug use and heterosexual men and women. Simulations were replicated for 200 runs and forecasted outcomes are presented as median values (95% uncertainty ranges are presented in the Supporting information). In 2020, PEARL forecasted a median population of 670,000 individuals receiving ART in the US, of whom 9% men and 4% women with history of injection drug use, 60% MSM, 8% heterosexual men, and 19% heterosexual women. Additionally, 44% were Black/AA, 32% White, and 23% Hispanic. Along with a gradual rise in population size of PWH receiving ART-reaching 908,000 individuals by 2030-PEARL forecasted a surge in prevalence of most comorbidities to 2030. Depression and/or anxiety was high and increased from 60% in 2020 to 64% in 2030. Hypertension decreased while dyslipidemia, diabetes, CKD, and MI increased. There was little change in prevalence of cancer and ESLD. The forecasted multimorbidity among PWH receiving ART increased from 63% in 2020 to 70% in 2030. There was heterogeneity in trends across subgroups. Among Black women with history of injection drug use in 2030 (oldest demographic subgroup with median age of 66 year), dyslipidemia, CKD, hypertension, diabetes, anxiety, and depression were most prevalent, with 92% experiencing multimorbidity. Among Black MSM in 2030 (youngest demographic subgroup with median age of 42 year), depression and CKD were highly prevalent, with 57% experiencing multimorbidity. These results are limited by the assumption that trends in new HIV diagnoses, mortality, and comorbidity risk observed in 2009 to 2017 will persist through 2030; influences occurring outside this period are not accounted for in the forecasts. CONCLUSIONS: The PEARL forecasts suggest a continued rise in comorbidity and multimorbidity prevalence to 2030, marked by heterogeneities across race/ethnicity, gender, and HIV acquisition risk subgroups. HIV clinicians must stay current on the ever-changing comorbidities-specific guidelines to provide guideline-recommended care. HIV clinical directors should ensure linkages to subspecialty care within the clinic or by referral. HIV policy decision-makers must allocate resources and support extended clinical capacity to meet the healthcare needs of people aging with HIV.

Racial and ethnic disparities in coronavirus disease 2019 disease incidence independent of comorbidities, among people with HIV in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: To define the incidence of clinically detected coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in people with HIV (PWH) in the United States and evaluate how racial and ethnic disparities, comorbidities, and HIV-related factors contribute to risk of COVID-19. DESIGN: Observational study within the CFAR Network of Integrated Clinical Systems cohort in seven cities during 2020. METHODS: We calculated cumulative incidence rates of COVID-19 diagnosis among PWH in routine care by key characteristics including race/ethnicity, current and lowest CD4+ cell count, and geographic area. We evaluated risk factors for COVID-19 among PWH using relative risk regression models adjusted with disease risk scores. RESULTS: Among 16 056 PWH in care, of whom 44.5% were black, 12.5% were Hispanic, with a median age of 52 years (IQR 40-59), 18% had a current CD4+ cell count less than 350 cells/µl, including 7% less than 200; 95.5% were on antiretroviral therapy (ART), and 85.6% were virologically suppressed. Overall in 2020, 649 PWH were diagnosed with COVID-19 for a rate of 4.94 cases per 100 person-years. The cumulative incidence of COVID-19 was 2.4-fold and 1.7-fold higher in Hispanic and black PWH respectively, than non-Hispanic white PWH. In adjusted analyses, factors associated with COVID-19 included female sex, Hispanic or black identity, lowest historical CD4+ cell count less than 350 cells/µl (proxy for CD4+ nadir), current low CD4+ : CD8+ ratio, diabetes, and obesity. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the presence of structural racial inequities above and beyond medical comorbidities increased the risk of COVID-19 among PWH. PWH with immune exhaustion as evidenced by lowest historical CD4+ cell count or current low CD4+ : CD8+ ratio had greater risk of COVID-19.

Perceptions of Alcohol Risk Among HIV/Hepatitis C Coinfected Patients.

OBJECTIVES: We examined how patient perceptions of alcohol risk, provider discussions about alcohol, and treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) differed among HIV-HCV coinfected patients in primary care. METHODS: Between April, 2016 and April, 2017, we conducted a screening survey with patients in an HIV primary care clinic in Seattle, Washington, who had chronic HCV coinfection or a history of chronic HCV infection who had successfully cleared their infection with treatment. RESULTS: Of 225 participants, 84 (37%) were active drinkers (drank ≥2-4 times/mo in past 3 months). Of those with little to no use for ≥3 months, 65 (29%) were former drinkers with a history of alcohol use and 76 were abstainers with no such history. Former drinkers and abstainers were more likely than active drinkers to perceive that any drinking was unsafe (69% vs 58% vs 31%; P < 0.001). Former drinkers were more likely to report a physician's recommendation to stop drinking than active drinkers (63% vs 47%; P = 0.05). The great majority (87%) of former drinkers decided to stop or reduce drinking on their own (most often in response to a nonhealth life event) and only 13% acknowledged doing so on their doctor's prompting. HCV treatment was not associated with former or active drinking status. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings underscore the importance of educating not only HIV-HCV patients about the effects of alcohol use but also HIV clinicians about delivering consistent counseling about alcohol avoidance. Understanding the reasons that HIV-HCV coinfected persons make changes in their alcohol use could drive novel interventions that reduce the negative consequences of drinking.

Infección aguda por el virus de la inmunodeficiencia humana. Estado actual de los conocimientos y preguntas aún pendientes / Acute virus infection human immunodeficiency. Condition current knowledge and questions still pending

A pesar de los avances en relación con la patogenia y el tratamiento de la infección por este virus, la mejor estrategia de manejo durante las primeras etapas que siguen a la infección es aún tema de debate.