Heterogeneous associations between interleukin-6 receptor variants and phenotypes across ancestries and implications for therapy.

The Phenome-Wide Association Study (PheWAS) is increasingly used to broadly screen for potential treatment effects, e.g., IL6R variant as a proxy for IL6R antagonists. This approach offers an opportunity to address the limited power in clinical trials to study differential treatment effects across patient subgroups. However, limited methods exist to efficiently test for differences across subgroups in the thousands of multiple comparisons generated as part of a PheWAS. In this study, we developed an approach that maximizes the power to test for heterogeneous genotype-phenotype associations and applied this approach to an IL6R PheWAS among individuals of African (AFR) and European (EUR) ancestries. We identified 29 traits with differences in IL6R variant-phenotype associations, including a lower risk of type 2 diabetes in AFR (OR 0.96) vs EUR (OR 1.0, p-value for heterogeneity = 8.5 × 10-3), and higher white blood cell count (p-value for heterogeneity = 8.5 × 10-131). These data suggest a more salutary effect of IL6R blockade for T2D among individuals of AFR vs EUR ancestry and provide data to inform ongoing clinical trials targeting IL6 for an expanding number of conditions. Moreover, the method to test for heterogeneity of associations can be applied broadly to other large-scale genotype-phenotype screens in diverse populations.

Risk of fall or fracture with concomitant use of prescription opioids and other medications in osteoarthritis patients.

BACKGROUND: Osteoarthritis (OA) patients taking prescription opioids for pain are at increased risk of fall or fracture, and the concomitant use of interacting drugs may further increase the risk of these events. AIMS: To identify prescription opioid-related medication combinations associated with fall or fracture. MATERIALS & METHODS: We conducted a case-crossover-based screening of two administrative claims databases spanning 2003 through 2021. OA patients were aged 40 years or older with at least 365 days of continuous enrollment and 90 days of continuous prescription opioid use before their first eligible fall or fracture event. The primary analysis quantified the odds ratio (OR) between fall and non-opioid medications dispensed in the 90 days before the fall date after adjustment for prescription opioid dosage and confounding using a case-time-control design. A secondary analogous analysis evaluated medications associated with fracture. The false discovery rate (FDR) was used to account for multiple testing. RESULTS: We identified 41 693 OA patients who experienced a fall and 24 891 OA patients who experienced a fracture after at least 90 days of continuous opioid therapy. Top non-opioid medications by ascending p-value with OR > 1 for fall were meloxicam (OR 1.22, FDR = 0.08), metoprolol (OR 1.06, FDR >0.99), and celecoxib (OR 1.13, FDR > 0.99). Top non-opioid medications for fracture were losartan (OR 1.20, FDR = 0.80), alprazolam (OR 1.14, FDR > 0.99), and duloxetine (OR 1.12, FDR = 0.97). CONCLUSION: Clinicians may seek to monitor patients who are co-prescribed drugs that act on the central nervous system, especially in individuals with OA.

Improving the accuracy of automated gout flare ascertainment using natural language processing of electronic health records and linked Medicare claims data.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to determine whether integrating concepts from the notes from the electronic health record (EHR) data using natural language processing (NLP) could improve the identification of gout flares. METHODS: Using Medicare claims linked with EHR, we selected gout patients who initiated the urate-lowering therapy (ULT). Patients' 12-month baseline period and on-treatment follow-up were segmented into 1-month units. We retrieved EHR notes for months with gout diagnosis codes and processed notes for NLP concepts. We selected a random sample of 500 patients and reviewed each of their notes for the presence of a physician-documented gout flare. Months containing at least 1 note mentioning gout flares were considered months with events. We used 60% of patients to train predictive models with LASSO. We evaluated the models by the area under the curve (AUC) in the validation data and examined positive/negative predictive values (P/NPV). RESULTS: We extracted and labeled 839 months of follow-up (280 with gout flares). The claims-only model selected 20 variables (AUC = 0.69). The NLP concept-only model selected 15 (AUC = 0.69). The combined model selected 32 claims variables and 13 NLP concepts (AUC = 0.73). The claims-only model had a PPV of 0.64 [0.50, 0.77] and an NPV of 0.71 [0.65, 0.76], whereas the combined model had a PPV of 0.76 [0.61, 0.88] and an NPV of 0.71 [0.65, 0.76]. CONCLUSION: Adding NLP concept variables to claims variables resulted in a small improvement in the identification of gout flares. Our data-driven claims-only model and our combined claims/NLP-concept model outperformed existing rule-based claims algorithms reliant on medication use, diagnosis, and procedure codes.

Real-World Treatment Effectiveness of Disease-Modifying Antirheumatic Drugs by Serostatus Among Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to compare the clinical effectiveness of biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) or Janus kinase inhibitors (JAKi) among seropositive versus seronegative patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in a real-world setting. METHODS: We used Optum's deidentified Clinformatics Data Mart Database (January 1, 2004, to March 31, 2021) linked with outpatient laboratory test results. The study population was adult patients with RA who initiated a bDMARD or JAKi. The index date was the dispensing of the first-ever study drug. At least 1-year continuous enrollment before and after the index date was required. Disenrollment due to death after the index date was allowed. Serostatus was defined using laboratory test results or the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision code M05x or M06.0x any time prior to the index date. Treatment effectiveness was measured based on a claims-based composite endpoint at 1-year post index, including nonoccurrence of any of the following: addition of conventional synthetic DMARDs, addition of or switching to new bDMARDs/JAKi, initiation of glucocorticoids, increased glucocorticoid dose, or death. Log-binomial regression models were constructed to estimate the risk ratio (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) comparing seropositive patients with seronegative patients, adjusting for more than 60 baseline covariates. RESULTS: We identified a total of 7813 seropositive patients and 4202 seronegative patients. The mean (±SD) age was 56.7 (±14.0) years; 77.9% were female. The risk of 1-year treatment effectiveness was 70.2% among seropositive patients and 69.8% among seronegative patients. The adjusted RR (95% CI) was 1.00 (0.98-1.02). CONCLUSION: In this real-world cohort study, seropositive and seronegative patients with RA had similar 1-year treatment effectiveness after initiating a bDMARD/JAKi.

Contemporary trends in the utilization of second-line pharmacological therapies for type 2 diabetes in the United States and the United Kingdom.

AIM: To examine trends of second-line glucose-lowering therapies among patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) initiating first-line metformin in the United States and the United Kingdom, overall and by subgroups of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and calendar time. METHODS: Using the US Optum Clinformatics and the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, we identified adults with T2D who initiated first-line metformin or sulphonylurea monotherapy, separately, from 2013 to 2019. Within both cohorts, we identified patterns of second-line medications through June 2021. We stratified patterns by CVD and calendar time to investigate the impact of rapidly evolving treatment guidelines. RESULTS: We identified 148 511 and 169 316 patients initiating treatment with metformin monotherapy in the United States and the United Kingdom, respectively. Throughout the study period, sulphonylureas and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors were the most frequently initiated second-line medications in the United States (43.4% and 18.2%, respectively) and the United Kingdom (42.5% and 35.8%, respectively). After 2018, sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists were more commonly used as second-line agents in the United States and the United Kingdom, although these agents were not preferentially prescribed among patients with CVD. Initiation of first-line sulphonylureas was much less common, and most sulphonylurea initiators had metformin added as the second-line agent. CONCLUSIONS: This international cohort study shows that sulphonylureas remain the most common second-line medications prescribed following metformin in both the United States and the United Kingdom. Despite recommendations, the use of newer glucose-lowering therapies with cardiovascular benefits remains low.

Factors Associated with Severe COVID-19 Among Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Large, Nationwide Electronic Health Record Cohort Study in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: To evaluate factors associated with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in the US. METHODS: Adults with RA who had a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, based on molecular or antigen test or clinical diagnosis, were identified from the Optum® COVID-19 Electronic Health Record dataset (March 1, 2020-April 28, 2021). The primary outcome was the occurrence of severe COVID-19 (hospitalization or death) within 30 days from SARS-CoV-2 infection. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using multivariable logistic regression models to assess the association between severe COVID-19 and patient characteristics, including demographics, baseline comorbidities, and recent RA treatments. RESULTS: During the study period, 6769 SARS-CoV-2 infections were identified in patients with RA, among whom 1460 (22%) developed severe COVID-19. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that being older, male, and non-White and having diabetes and cardiovascular conditions are associated with greater odds of severe COVID-19. In addition, compared with no use, the adjusted odds of severe COVID-19 were lower with recent use of tumor necrosis factor inhibitors (aOR 0.60, 95% CI 0.41-0.86) and higher with recent use of corticosteroids (aOR 1.38, 95% CI 1.13-1.69) or rituximab (aOR 2.87, 95% CI 1.60-5.14), respectively. CONCLUSION: Nearly one in five patients with RA developed severe COVID-19 disease within 30 days after SARS-CoV-2 infection. In patients with RA, recent use of corticosteroids and rituximab were two factors associated with a greater risk of severe COVID-19 in addition to the risk factors among demographics and comorbidities previously identified in the general population.

Risk of Severe Hypoglycemia With Newer Second-line Glucose-lowering Medications in Older Adults With Type 2 Diabetes Stratified by Known Indicators of Hypoglycemia Risk.

BACKGROUND: Severe hypoglycemia is associated with adverse clinical outcomes. We evaluated the risk of severe hypoglycemia in older adults initiating newer glucose-lowering medications overall and across strata of known indicators of high hypoglycemia risk. METHODS: We conducted a comparative-effectiveness cohort study of older adults aged >65 years with type 2 diabetes initiating sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) versus dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4i) or SGLT2i versus glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) using Medicare claims (3/2013-12/2018) and Medicare-linked-electronic health records. We identified severe hypoglycemia requiring emergency or inpatient visits using validated algorithms. After 1:1 propensity score matching, we estimated hazard ratios (HR) and rate differences (RD) per 1,000 person-years. Analyses were stratified by baseline insulin, sulfonylurea, cardiovascular disease (CVD), chronic kidney disease (CKD), and frailty. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 7 (interquartile range: 4-16) months, SGLT2i was associated with a reduced risk of hypoglycemia versus DPP-4i (HR 0.75 [0.68, 0.83]; RD -3.21 [-4.29, -2.12]), and versus GLP-1RA (HR 0.90 [0.82, 0.98]; RD -1.33 [-2.44, -0.23]). RD for SGLT2i versus DPP-4i was larger in patients using baseline insulin than in those not, although HRs were similar. In patients using baseline sulfonylurea, the risk of hypoglycemia was lower in SGLT2i versus DPP-4i (HR 0.57 [0.49, 0.65], RD -6.80 [-8.43, -5.16]), while the association was near-null in those without baseline sulfonylurea. Results stratified by baseline CVD, CKD and frailty were similar to the overall cohort findings. Findings for the GLP-1RA comparison were similar. CONCLUSIONS: SGLT2i was associated with a lower hypoglycemia risk versus incretin-based medications, with larger associations in patients using baseline insulin or sulfonylurea.

Comparative Safety of Gout Treatment Strategies on Cardiovascular Outcomes Using Observational Data: Clone-censor-weight Target Trial Emulation Approach.

BACKGROUND: We sought to examine the cardiovascular safety of intensive treat-to-target serum urate strategies for gout using Medicare claims data linked to electronic health record laboratory data. METHODS: We selected patients with gout who initiated urate-lowering therapy. We emulated a hypothetical trial comparing the rate of major adverse cardiovascular events (nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, and cardiovascular death) among seven different strategies over 24 months. Three aspects were considered in defining increasingly intensive strategies: (1) continuation of urate-lowering therapy, (2) serum urate monitoring, and (3) modification of urate-lowering therapy when serum urate >6 mg/dl. We applied the "clone-censor-weight" method to account for baseline and time-varying confounding. RESULTS: We identified 4402 patients with gout who initiated urate-lowering therapy (mean age 77; male 60%). During a total of 6611 person-years (PY) of follow-up under usual care, the rate of major cardiovascular events (first and recurrent) was 4.5/100 PY (95% CI = 4.0, 5.1). The rate ratios (RRs) suggested reductions (RR point estimates 0.88-0.84) compared with usual care. All 95% CIs were imprecise, but their upper bounds excluded substantial increase in RRs. RRs were closer to 1.0 for the analysis focusing on the first major adverse cardiovascular event during follow-up and on comparison to the strategy requiring continuation of urate-lowering therapy (but not necessarily titration). CONCLUSIONS: Our treatment strategy trial emulation did not find increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events with intensive urate-lowering strategies. Results may provide reassurance of the cardiovascular safety of intensive treat-to-target serum urate strategies recommended by rheumatology societies.

Comparing Effectiveness and Safety of SGLT2 Inhibitors vs DPP-4 Inhibitors in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes and Varying Baseline HbA1c Levels.

Importance: Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor (SGLT2i) therapy has been associated with cardiovascular benefits and a few adverse events; however, whether the comparative effectiveness and safety profiles vary with differences in baseline hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels is unknown. Objective: To compare cardiovascular effectiveness and safety of treatment with SGLT2i vs dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor (DPP-4i) in adults with type 2 diabetes (T2D) (1) overall and (2) at varying baseline HbA1c levels. Design, Setting, and Participants: A new-user comparative effectiveness and safety research study was conducted among 144 614 commercially insured adults, initiating treatment with SGLT2i or DPP-4i and with a recorded T2D diagnosis at baseline and at least 1 HbA1c laboratory result recorded within 3 months before treatment initiation. Interventions: The intervention consisted of the initiation of treatment with SGLT2i or DPP-4i. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were a composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, or all-cause death (modified major adverse cardiovascular events [MACE]) and hospitalization for heart failure (HHF). Safety outcomes were hypovolemia, fractures, falls, genital infections, diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA), acute kidney injury (AKI), and lower-limb amputation. Incidence rate (IR) per 1000 person-years, hazard ratios (HR) and rate differences (RD) with their 95% CIs were estimated controlling for 128 covariates. Results: A total of 144 614 eligible adults (mean [SD] age, 62 [12.4] years; 54% male participants) with T2D initiating treatment with a SGLT2i (n = 60 523) or a DPP-4i (n = 84 091) were identified; 44 099 had an HbA1c baseline value of less than 7.5%, 52 986 between 7.5% and 9%, and 47 529 greater than 9%. Overall, 87 274 eligible patients were 1:1 propensity score-matched: 24 052 with HbA1c less than 7.5%; 32 290 with HbA1c between 7.5% and 9%; and 30 932 with HbA1c greater than 9% (to convert percentage of total hemoglobin to proportion of total hemoglobin, multiply by 0.01). The initiation of SGLT2i vs DPP-4i was associated with a reduction in the risk of modified MACE (IR per 1000 person-years 17.13 vs 20.18, respectively; HR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.75-0.95; RD, -3.02; 95% CI, -5.23 to -0.80) and HHF (IR per 1000 person-years 3.68 vs 8.08, respectively; HR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.35 to 0.57; RD -4.37; 95% CI, -5.62 to -3.12) over a mean follow-up of 8 months, with no evidence of treatment effect heterogeneity across the HbA1c levels. Treatment with SGLT2i showed an increased risk of genital infections and DKA and a reduced AKI risk compared with DPP-4i. Findings were consistent by HbA1c levels, except for a more pronounced risk of genital infections associated with SGLT2i for HbA1c levels of 7.5% to 9% (IR per 1000 person-years 68.5 vs 22.8, respectively; HR, 3.10; 95% CI, 2.68-3.58; RD, 46.22; 95% CI, 40.54-51.90). Conclusions and Relevance: In this comparative effectiveness and safety research study among adults with T2D, SGLT2i vs DPP-4i treatment initiators had a reduced risk of modified MACE and HHF, an increased risk of genital infections and DKA, and a lower risk of AKI, regardless of baseline HbA1c.

Validation of serostatus of rheumatoid arthritis using ICD-10 codes in administrative claims data.

PURPOSE: To determine the accuracy of International Classification of Diseases- Tenth Revision (ICD-10) diagnosis codes for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) serostatus using a U.S. claims database (Optum Clinformatics Data Mart, Optum) and to compare the results to a previous validation study performed in IBM Marketscan Research Database (sensitivity 73%, positive predictive value, PPV, 84%). METHODS: In Optum (01/01/2016-03/31/2020) linked with laboratory results, we selected RA patients based on ≥2 ICD-10 diagnosis codes for RA (M05 or M06) and at least one dispensing of RA treatments. We included individuals with at least one laboratory result for rheumatoid factor (RF) or anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (CCP) performed 365 days prior to and including the cohort entry date. An individual was "seropositive" if at least one of the 2 diagnosis codes used to define RA status was M05. "Seronegative" patients were required to have only M06. Secondary analyses were performed using subsets of M05 and M06 diagnosis codes. We calculated the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and kappa of M05 and M06 against the prespecified reference standard laboratory data. RESULTS: We identified 14 490 adult RA patients who had at least 1 RF or anti-CCP result. The number of patients identified for each reference standard definition ranged from 3315 (reference standard definition: high + anti-CCP) to 13 636 (any + RF). PPV for seropositive RA, M05, was 77.1%. The PPV of M06 for seronegative RA was 61.6%. When we applied more restricted definitions of M05 and M06, the PPV for seropositive RA increased to 79.2%. The PPV for seronegative RA also notably increased to 89.5%. CONCLUSION: ICD-10 codes (M05 and M06) can help identify RA serostatus in claims data, but their limitations should be acknowledged. The PPVs for seropositive and seronegative RA found in the Optum database were lower than those found in MarketScan, perhaps related to database variability or differing patient characteristics and clinical practice. When more restricted definitions of M05 and M06 were used, the PPVs for seropositive and seronegative RA improved to 79.2% and 89.5%, respectively.

Real-world patient characteristics and use of disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: a cross-national study.

INTRODUCTION: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is associated with significant morbidity and economic burden. This study aimed to compare baseline characteristics and patterns of anti-inflammatory drug use and disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug (DMARD) use among patients with RA in Southern Italy versus the United States. METHOD: Using Caserta Local Health Unit (Italy) and Optum's de-identified Clinformatics® Data Mart (United States) claims databases, patients with ≥ 2 diagnosis codes for RA during the study period (Caserta: 2010-2018; Optum: 2010-2019) were identified. Baseline patient characteristics, as well as proportion of RA patients untreated/treated with NSAIDs/glucocorticoids/conventional DMARDs (csDMARDs)/biological/targeted synthetic DMARDs (b/tsDMARDs) during the first year of follow-up, and the proportion of RA patients with ≥ 1 switch/add-on between the first and the second year of follow-up, were calculated. These analyses were then stratified by age group (< 65; ≥ 65). RESULTS: A total of 9227 RA patients from Caserta and 195,951 from Optum databases were identified (two-thirds were females). During the first year of follow-up, 45.9% RA patients from Optum versus 79.9% from Caserta were exclusively treated with NSAIDs/glucocorticoids; 17.2% versus 11.3% from Optum and Caserta, respectively, were treated with csDMARDs, mostly methotrexate or hydroxychloroquine in both cohorts. Compared to 0.6% of RA patients from Caserta, 3.2% of the Optum cohort received ≥ 1 b/tsDMARD dispensing. Moreover, 61,655 (33.7%) patients from Optum cohort remained untreated compared to 748 (8.3%) patients from the Caserta cohort. The subgroup analyses stratified by age showed that 42,989 (39.8%) of elderly RA patients were untreated compared to 18,666 (24.9%) young adult RA patients in Optum during the first year of follow-up. Moreover, a higher proportion of young adult RA patients was treated with b/tsDMARDs, with and without csDMARDs, compared to elderly RA patients (Optum<65: 6.4%; Optum≥65: 1.0%; P-value < 0.001; Caserta<65: 0.8%; Caserta≥65: 0.1%; P-value < 0.001). Among RA patients untreated during the first year after ID, 41.2% and 48.4% RA patients from Caserta and Optum, respectively, received NSAIDs, glucocorticoids, and cs/b/tsDMARDs within the second year of follow-up. Stratifying the analysis by age groups, 50.6% of untreated young RA patients received study drug dispensing within the second year of follow-up, compared to only 36.7% of elderly RA patients in Optum. Interestingly, more young adult RA patients treated with csDMARDs during the first year after ID received a therapy escalation to b/tsDMARD within the second year after ID in both cohorts, compared to elderly RA patients (Optum<65: 7.8%; Optum≥65: 1.8%; Caserta<65: 3.2%; Caserta≥65: 0.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Most of RA patients, with heterogeneous baseline characteristics in Optum and Caserta cohorts, were treated with anti-inflammatory/csDMARDs rather than bDMARDs/tsDMARDs during the first year post-diagnosis, especially in elderly RA patients, suggesting a need for better understanding and dealing with barriers in the use of these agents for RA patients. Key Points • Substantial heterogeneity in baseline characteristics and access to bDMARD or tsDMARD drugs between RA patients from the United States and Italy exists. • Most of RA patients seem to be treated with anti-inflammatory/csDMARD drugs rather than bDMARD/tsDMARD drugs during the first year post-diagnosis. • RA treatment escalation is less frequent in old RA patients than in young adult RA patients. • An appropriate use of DMARDs should be considered to achieve RA disease remission or low disease activity.

Hydroxychloroquine lowers Alzheimer's disease and related dementias risk and rescues molecular phenotypes related to Alzheimer's disease.

We recently nominated cytokine signaling through the Janus-kinase-signal transducer and activator of transcription (JAK/STAT) pathway as a potential AD drug target. As hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) has recently been shown to inactivate STAT3, we hypothesized that it may impact AD pathogenesis and risk. Among 109,124 rheumatoid arthritis patients from routine clinical care, HCQ initiation was associated with a lower risk of incident AD compared to methotrexate initiation across 4 alternative analyses schemes addressing specific types of biases including informative censoring, reverse causality, and outcome misclassification (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] of 0.92 [0.83-1.00], 0.87 [0.81-0.93], 0.84 [0.76-0.93], and 0.87 [0.75-1.01]). We additionally show that HCQ exerts dose-dependent effects on late long-term potentiation (LTP) and rescues impaired hippocampal synaptic plasticity prior to significant accumulation of amyloid plaques and neurodegeneration in APP/PS1 mice. Additionally, HCQ treatment enhances microglial clearance of Aß1-42, lowers neuroinflammation, and reduces tau phosphorylation in cell culture-based phenotypic assays. Finally, we show that HCQ inactivates STAT3 in microglia, neurons, and astrocytes suggesting a plausible mechanism associated with its observed effects on AD pathogenesis. HCQ, a relatively safe and inexpensive drug in current use may be a promising disease-modifying AD treatment. This hypothesis merits testing through adequately powered clinical trials in at-risk individuals during preclinical stages of disease progression.

Racial differences in persistent glucocorticoid use patterns among medicaid beneficiaries with incident systemic lupus erythematosus.

OBJECTIVE: Glucocorticoids ("steroids") are frequently used in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Prolonged use may contribute to racial/ethnic disparities in avoidable adverse outcomes. We examined racial/ethnic differences in longitudinal patterns of steroid use and dose. METHODS: We identified Medicaid beneficiaries 18-65 years with incident SLE who received steroids for 12 months following the index date. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify patterns of daily prednisone-equivalent steroid doses. We examined demographic, clinical and healthcare utilization factors during the baseline period and used multinomial logistic regression to estimate the odds of belonging to the higher vs. lowest steroid dose trajectories over time. RESULTS: We identified 6314 individuals with SLE with ≥1 dispensed steroid prescription. The mean (SD) prednisone-equivalent dose was 7 (23) mg/day for Black, 7 (26) for Hispanic, 7 (13) for Asian, and 4 (10) for White individuals. Adjusted multinomial models demonstrated higher odds of belonging to the highest vs. lowest steroid trajectory for Black (OR 2.07, 95% CI 1.65-2.61), Hispanic (OR 1.81, 95% CI 1.38-2.39), and Asian (OR 2.42, 95% CI 1.53-3.83) vs. White individuals. Having >5 outpatient visits during the baseline period was associated with lower odds of being in the persistently high-dose steroid trajectory (OR 0.77; 95% CI 0.60-0.98). CONCLUSION: Black, Hispanic, and Asian (vs. White) individuals had higher odds of persistently high-dose steroid use. Sustained access to outpatient care and the development of standardized steroid-tapering regimens from clinical trials with diverse populations may be targets for intervention to mitigate disparities in steroid-related adverse outcomes.

Association Between Inflammation, Incident Heart Failure, and Heart Failure Subtypes in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: In rheumatoid arthritis (RA), there are limited data on risk factors for the clinical heart failure (HF) subtypes of HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). This study examined the association between inflammation and incident HF subtypes in RA. Because inflammation changes over time with disease activity, we hypothesized that the effect of inflammation may be stronger at the 5-year follow-up than at the standard 10-year follow-up from general population studies of cardiovascular risk. METHODS: We studied an electronic health record (EHR)-based RA cohort with data pre- and post-RA incidence. We applied a validated approach to identify HF and extract ejection fraction to classify HFrEF and HFpEF. Follow-up started from the RA incidence date (index date) to the earliest occurrence of incident HF, death, last EHR encounter, or 10 years. Baseline inflammation was assessed using erythrocyte sedimentation rate or C-reactive protein values. Covariates included demographic characteristics, established HF risk factors, and RA-related factors. We tested the association between baseline inflammation with incident HF and its subtypes using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: We studied 9,087 patients with RA; 8.2% developed HF during 10 years of follow-up. Elevated inflammation was associated with increased risk for HF at both 5- and 10-year follow-ups (hazard ratio [HR] 1.66, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.12-2.46 and HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.13-1.90, respectively), which is also seen for HFpEF at 5 years (HR 1.72, 95% CI 1.09-2.70) and 10 years (HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.07-1.94). HFrEF was not associated with inflammation for either follow-up time. CONCLUSION: Elevated inflammation early in RA diagnosis was associated with HF; this association was driven by HFpEF and not HFrEF, suggesting a window of opportunity for prevention of HFpEF in RA.

Risk of malignant melanoma and non-melanoma skin cancer in rheumatoid arthritis patients initiating methotrexate versus hydroxychloroquine: a cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To characterise the incidence rate of skin cancer associated with methotrexate and hydroxychloroquine in older adults with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: RA patients aged ≥65 years who initiated methotrexate or hydroxychloroquine as their first disease modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs). The primary outcome was new occurrence of any skin cancer (i.e. malignant melanoma or non-melanoma skin cancer; NMSC) based on validated algorithms (positive predictive value >83%). Secondary outcomes were malignant melanoma, NMSC, basal cell carcinoma (BCC), and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). We estimated the incidence rates (IRs) and hazard ratios (HRs) for each outcome in the 1:1 propensity score (PS)-matched methotrexate and hydroxychloroquine groups. RESULTS: We included 24,577 PS-matched pairs of methotrexate and hydroxychloroquine initiators. Compared with hydroxychloroquine (IR 25.20/1,000 person-years), methotrexate initiators (IR 26.21/1,000 person-years) had a similar risk of any skin cancer [HR 1.03 -(95%CI 0.92, 1.14)] over a mean follow-up of 388 days. The HR (95%CI) associated with methotrexate was 1.39 (0.87, 2.21) for malignant melanoma, 1.01(0.90, 1.12) for NMSC, 1.37 (1.13, 1.66) for BCC, and 0.79 (0.63, 0.99) for SCC compared with hydroxychloroquine. CONCLUSIONS: In this large cohort of older RA patients initiating methotrexate or hydroxychloroquine as their first DMARD, we found no difference in the risk of skin cancer including malignant melanoma and NMSC. However, for specific components of NMSC, methotrexate initiators had higher risk of BCC but lower risk of SCC compared with hydroxychloroquine initiators.

Using Data-Driven Approaches to Classify and Predict Health Care Spending in Patients With Gout Using Urate-Lowering Therapy.

OBJECTIVE: Despite increasing overall health care spending over the past several decades, little is known about long-term patterns of spending among US patients with gout. Current approaches to assessing spending typically focus on composite measures or patients agnostic to disease state; in contrast, examining spending using longitudinal measures may better discriminate patients and target interventions to those in need. We used a data-driven approach to classify and predict spending patterns in patients with gout. METHODS: Using insurance claims data from 2017-2019, we used group-based trajectory modeling to classify patients ages 40 years or older diagnosed with gout and treated with urate-lowering therapy (ULT) by their total health care spending over 2 years. We assessed the ability to predict membership in each spending group using logistic and generalized boosted regression with split-sample validation. Models were estimated using different sets of predictors and evaluated using C statistics. RESULTS: In 57,980 patients, the mean ± SD age was 71.0 ± 10.5 years, and 17,194 patients (29.7%) were female. The best-fitting model included the following groups: minimal spending (13.2%), moderate spending (37.4%), and high spending (49.4%). The ability to predict groups was high overall (e.g., boosted C statistics with all predictors: minimal spending [0.89], moderate spending [0.78], and high spending [0.90]). Although average adherence was relatively high in the population, for the high-spending group, the most influential predictors were greater gout medication adherence and diabetes melllitus diagnosis. CONCLUSION: We identified distinct long-term health care spending patterns in patients with gout using ULT with high accuracy. Several clinical predictors could be key areas for intervention, such as gout medication use or diabetes melllitus.

No association between initiation of phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitors and risk of incident Alzheimer's disease and related dementia: results from the Drug Repurposing for Effective Alzheimer's Medicines study.

We evaluated the hypothesis that phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitors, including sildenafil and tadalafil, may be associated with reduced incidence of Alzheimer's disease and related dementia using a patient-level cohort study of Medicare claims and cell culture-based phenotypic assays. We compared incidence of Alzheimer's disease and related dementia after phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitor initiation versus endothelin receptor antagonist initiation among patients with pulmonary hypertension after controlling for 76 confounding variables through propensity score matching. Across four separate analytic approaches designed to address specific types of biases including informative censoring, reverse causality, and outcome misclassification, we observed no evidence for a reduced risk of Alzheimer's disease and related dementia with phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitors;hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): 0.99 (0.69-1.43), 1.00 (0.71-1.42), 0.67 (0.43-1.06), and 1.15 (0.57-2.34). We also did not observe evidence that sildenafil ameliorated molecular abnormalities relevant to Alzheimer's disease in most cell culture-based phenotypic assays. These results do not provide support to the hypothesis that phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitors are promising repurposing candidates for Alzheimer's disease and related dementia.

Association of Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter-2 Inhibitors With Incident Atrial Fibrillation in Older Adults With Type 2 Diabetes.

Importance: Sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT-2is) have demonstrated many cardiovascular and kidney function benefits for patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, the results of SGLT-2i use in primary prevention of atrial fibrillation (AF) were inconsistent in clinical trials, and incident AF was not a prespecified end point. Objective: To examine incident AF with initiation of an SGLT-2i compared with initiation of a dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor (DPP-4i) or a glucagonlike peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) among older adults (aged ≥66 years) with T2D in routine clinical practice. Design, Setting, and Participants: A population-based new-user cohort study included older adults with T2D who had no history of AF and were enrolled in Medicare fee-for-service from April 1, 2013, to December 31, 2018. Data analysis was performed from June 28 to December 1, 2021. Exposures: To control for potential confounding, new users of SGLT-2i were 1:1 propensity score (PS)-matched to new users of DPP-4is or GLP-1RAs in 2 pairwise comparisons based on 138 baseline covariates. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was incident AF, defined as an inpatient diagnosis code for AF. Hazard ratios (HRs) and rate differences (RDs) per 1000 person-years, with their 95% CIs, were estimated in the PS-matched groups. Results: New users of SGLT-2is were 1:1 PS-matched to new users of a DPP-4i (n = 74 868) or GLP-1RA (n = 80 475). Overall, the mean (SD) age of study participants was 72 (5) years, and 165 984 were women (53.4%). The risk of incident AF was lower in the SGLT-2i group than the matched DPP-4i group (HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.76 to 0.89; RD, -3.7; 95% CI, -5.2 to -2.2 per 1000 person-years) or the matched GLP-1RA group (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.83 to 0.98; RD, -1.8; 95% CI, -3.2 to -0.3 per 1000 person-years). Results were consistent across several sensitivity and subgroup analyses. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this study suggest that the initiation of an SGLT-2i was associated with a reduced risk of incident AF compared with a DPP-4i or GLP-1RA. The results may be helpful when weighing the potential risks and benefits of various glucose level-lowering agents in older adults with T2D.

Comparative Effectiveness of Empagliflozin vs Liraglutide or Sitagliptin in Older Adults With Diverse Patient Characteristics.

Importance: Limited evidence is available on the comparative effectiveness of empagliflozin vs alternative second-line glucose-lowering agents in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) receiving routine care who have a broad spectrum of cardiorenal risk. Objective: To evaluate the association of empagliflozin with cardiovascular outcomes relative to liraglutide and sitagliptin, stratified by age, sex, baseline atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), heart failure (HF), and chronic kidney disease (CKD). Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective comparative effectiveness cohort study used deidentified Medicare claims data from August 1, 2014, to September 30, 2018, with follow-up from drug initiation until treatment changes, death, or gap in Medicare enrollment (>30 days). Data analysis was performed from October 1, 2021, to April 30, 2022. Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries older than 65 years with T2D were included. A total of 45 788 patients (22 894 propensity score-matched pairs initiating treatment with either empagliflozin or liraglutide) were included in cohort 1, and 45 624 patients (22 812 propensity score-matched pairs initiating treatment with either empagliflozin or sitagliptin) were included in cohort 2. Exposures: Empagliflozin vs liraglutide (cohort 1) or empagliflozin vs sitagliptin (cohort 2). Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were (1) modified major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), including a composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, and all-cause mortality, and (2) hospitalization for heart failure (HHF). Hazard ratios (HRs) and rate differences (RDs) per 1000 person-years were estimated, adjusting for 143 baseline covariates using 1:1 propensity score matching. Results: Among 45 788 patients in cohort 1, the mean (SD) age was 71.9 (5.1) years; 23 396 patients (51.1%) were female, 22 392 (48.9%) were male, and 38 049 (83.1%) were White. Among 45 624 patients in cohort 2, the mean (SD) age was 72.1 (5.1) years; 21 418 patients (46.9%) were female, 24 206 (53.1%) were male, and 37 814 (82.9%) were White. Relative to patients initiating liraglutide, those initiating empagliflozin had a similar risk of the modified MACE outcome (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.79-1.03) and a reduced risk of HHF (HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.52-0.82). Across subgroups, empagliflozin was associated with a lower risk of the modified MACE outcome in patients with a history of ASCVD (HR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.71-0.98) and HF (HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.60-1.00) compared with liraglutide, and potential heterogeneity in estimates was observed by sex (male: HR, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.71-1.01]; female: HR, 1.16 [95% CI, 0.94-1.42]; P = .02 for homogeneity). However, reductions in the risk of HHF were observed across most subgroups (eg, ASCVD: HR, 0.66 [95% CI, 0.51-0.85]; HF: HR, 0.66 [95% CI, 0.49-0.88]). Compared with sitagliptin, empagliflozin was associated with reduced risks of the modified MACE outcome (HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.60-0.77) and HHF (HR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.36-0.56), which were consistent across all subgroups. Absolute benefits of empagliflozin vs sitagliptin were larger in patients with a history of ASCVD (modified MACE: RD, -17.6 [95% CI, -24.9 to -10.4]; HHF: RD, -16.7 [95% CI, -21.7 to -11.9]), HF (modified MACE: RD, -41.1 [95% CI, -59.9 to -22.6]; HHF: RD, -50.4 [95% CI, -67.5 to -33.9]), or CKD (modified MACE: RD, -26.7 [95% CI, -41.3 to -12.3]; HHF: RD, -31.9 [95% CI, -43.5 to -20.8]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this comparative effectiveness study of older adults, empagliflozin was associated with a lower risk of HHF (relative to both liraglutide and sitagliptin) and the modified MACE outcome (relative to sitagliptin), with larger absolute benefits in patients with established cardiorenal diseases. These findings suggest that older adults with T2D might benefit more from empagliflozin vs liraglutide or sitagliptin with respect to the risk of HHF; with respect to the risk of MACEs, empagliflozin might be preferable to liraglutide only in patients with cardiovascular disease history and to sitagliptin across all patient subgroups.

Cardiovascular and Mortality Risk with Intravitreal Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor Inhibitors in Patients with Diabetic Retinopathy.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the cardiovascular (CV) safety associated with intravitreal anti-VEGF injections (IAVIs) in patients with diabetic retinopathy (DR). DESIGN: Population-based cohort study using Medicare and 2 commercial insurance claims databases in the United States from January 2009 to December 2017. SUBJECTS: Patients with DR aged ≥ 18 years in whom treatment with either IVAIs or laser procedure or intravitreal steroid injections was initiated. METHODS: We estimated the propensity score (PS) using multivariable logistic regression models, including 85 baseline covariates and PS-matched patients in a 1:1 ratio. We estimated the pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Subgroup analyses based on prior history of CV events were also conducted. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: A composite CV outcome of myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke, its individual components, and all-cause mortality in 180 and 365 days after treatment initiation. RESULTS: We identified 61 508 PS-matched patients in a 1:1 ratio in whom either IVAIs or laser or steroid treatment was initiated. Compared with laser or steroid treatment, IAVIs were not associated with an increased risk of the composite CV outcome (HR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.83-1.09), MI (HR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.76-1.13), or stroke (HR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.80-1.19) or the risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 0.97-1.62) at 180 days of follow-up. At 365 days, the risk of the composite CV outcome, stroke, and MI remained similar between the 2 groups, although the risk of all-cause mortality was increased with IAVIs (HR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.14-1.60). The subgroup analysis showed that the risk of all-cause mortality was increased in patients with a prior history of CV events. CONCLUSIONS: Among > 60 000 patients with DR, those who received IAVIs had a risk of CV events similar to those who received laser or steroid treatment. However, the risk of all-cause mortality was higher in patients who received IAVIs for DR.