Semiquantitative Risk Evaluation Reveals Drivers of African Swine Fever Virus Transmission in Smallholder Pig Farms and Gaps in Biosecurity, Tanzania.

African swine fever (ASF) has remained persistent in Tanzania since the early 2000s. Between 2020 and 2021, pig farms in twelve districts in Tanzania were infected with ASF, and ≥4,804 pigs reportedly died directly due to the disease with disruption to livelihoods. We conducted semiquantitative field investigations and rapid risk assessment (RRA) to understand the risk factors and drivers of ASF virus (ASFV) amplification and transmission in smallholder pig farms, and determine the gaps in biosecurity through hazard profiling, focus group discussions and expert opinion. Outbreaks were connected by road and aligned along the pig product value chain and reported in the northern, central, and southern parts of Tanzania. The patterns of outbreaks and impacts differed among districts, but cases of ASF appeared to be self-limiting following significant mortality of pigs in farms. Movement of infected pigs, movement of contaminated pig products, and fomites associated with service providers, vehicles, and equipment, as well as the inadvertent risks associated with movements of animal health practitioners, visitors, and scavengers were the riskiest pathways to introduce ASFV into smallholder pig farms. Identified drivers and facilitators of risk of ASFV infection in smallholder pig farms were traders in whole pigs, middlemen, pig farmers, transporters, unauthorized animal health service providers, and traders in pork. All identified pig groups were susceptible to ASFV, particularly shared adult boars, pregnant and lactating sows, and other adult females. The risk of ASF for smallholder pig farms in Tanzania remains very high based on a systematic risk classification. The majority of the farms had poor biosecurity and no single farm implemented all identified biosecurity measures. Risky practices and breaches of biosecurity in the pig value chain in Tanzania are profit driven and are extremely difficult to change. Behavioural change communication must target identified drivers of infections, attitudes, and practices.

Co-creation and priority setting for applied and implementation research in One Health: Improving capacities in public and animal health systems in Kenya.

Background: The Kenyan government has successfully been implementing sector specific and multisectoral projects aligned to the Global Health Security Agenda (GHSA). For operational readiness and to enhance the effective planning and implementation of Global Health Security Programs (GHSP) at national and subnational level, there is an urgent need for stakeholders' engagement process to seek input in identifying challenges, prioritise activities for field implementation, and identify applied research and development questions, that should be addressed in the next five years. Methods: The modified Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) method was used to identify global health security related priorities for multisectoral implementation in Kenya. Subject matter experts from human, animal and environmental health sectors at national and subnational level contributed to predefined research questions from a number of sources and activities for consideration for implementation using a One Health approach. Sixty-two experts scored the 193 questions based on five pre-defined criteria: 1) feasibility and answerability; 2) potential for burden reduction; 3) potential for a paradigm shift; 4) potential for translation and implementation; and 5) impact on equity. Data resulting from this process was then analysed in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet to determine the research priorities and experts' agreements. Results: Among the priority activities identified for implementation research were; strengthening One Health governance and legal frameworks; integration of ecosystem health into One Health programming; strengthening disease reporting, integrated data collection, information sharing and joint outbreak response; socio-anthropological and gender-based approaches in improving risk and behavioural change communication and community engagement; and one health workforce development. In addition, the potentials to invest in collaborative predictive risk modelling to enhance epidemic intelligence systems, while strengthening the One Health approach in the food safety incident and emergency response plans are feasible. Interpretation: Successful multisectoral implementation of global health security program in Kenya calls for a whole of society approach that will harness community and private sector knowledge to build preparedness and response capacities while targeting neglected and marginalised populations. This research provides a framework that is worth emulating for cost-effective planning and implementation of overarching One Health programs.

One hundred years of African swine fever in Africa: Where have we been, where are we now, where are we going?

One hundred years have passed since the first paper on African swine fever (ASF) was published by Montgomery in 1921. With no vaccine, ineffectiveness of prevention and control measures and lack of common interest in eradicating the disease, ASF has proven to be one of the most devastating diseases because of its significant sanitary and socioeconomic consequences. The rapid spread of the disease on the European and Asian continents and its recent appearance in the Caribbean puts all countries at great risk because of global trade. The incidence of ASF has also increased on the African continent over the last few decades, extending its distribution far beyond the area in which the ancient sylvatic cycle is present with its complex epidemiological transmission pathways involving virus reservoirs in ticks and wild African Suidae. Both in that area and elsewhere, efficient transmission by infected domestic pigs and virus resistance in infected animal products and fomites mean that human driven factors along the pig value chain are the dominant impediments for its prevention, control and eradication. Control efforts in Africa are furthermore hampered by the lack of information about the size and location of the fast-growing pig population, particularly in the dynamic smallholder sector that constitutes up to 90% of pig production in the region. A vaccine that will be both affordable and effective against multiple genotypes of the virus is not a short-term reality. Therefore, a strategy for management of ASF in sub-Saharan Africa is needed to provide a roadmap for the way forward for the continent. This review explores the progression of ASF and our knowledge of it through research over a century in Africa, our current understanding of ASF and what must be done going forward to improve the African situation and contribute to global prevention and control.

Drivers, Risk Factors and Dynamics of African Swine Fever Outbreaks, Southern Highlands, Tanzania.

African swine fever remains an important pig disease globally in view of its rapid spread, economic impacts and food implications, with no option of vaccination or treatment. The Southern Highlands zone of Tanzania, an important pig-producing hub in East Africa, is endemic with African swine fever (ASF). From approximately the year 2010, the recurrence of outbreaks has been observed and it has now become a predictable pattern. We conducted exploratory participatory epidemiology and participatory disease surveillance in the Southern Highlands to understand the pig sector and the drivers and facilitators of infections, risk factors and dynamics of ASF in this important pig-producing area. Pigs continue to play a major role in rural livelihoods in the Southern Highlands and pork is a major animal protein source. Outbreaks of diseases, particularly ASF, have continued to militate against the scaling up of pig operations in the Southern Highlands. Intra- and inter-district and trans-border transnational outbreaks of ASF, the most common disease in the Southern Highlands, continue to occur. Trade and marketing systems, management systems, and lack of biosecurity, as well as anthropogenic (human) issues, animals and fomites, were identified as risk factors and facilitators of ASF infection. Changes in human behavior and communication in trade and marketing systems in the value chain, biosecurity and pig management practices are warranted. Relevant training must be implemented alongside the launch of the national ASF control strategy for Tanzania, which already established a roadmap for combating ASF in Tanzania. The high-risk points (slaughter slabs, border areas, and farms with poor biosecurity) and high-risk period (November-March) along the pig value chain must be targeted as critical control points for interventions in order to reduce the burden of infection.

Spatial and temporal pattern of Rift Valley fever outbreaks in Tanzania; 1930 to 2007.

BACKGROUND: Rift Valley fever (RVF)-like disease was first reported in Tanzania more than eight decades ago and the last large outbreak of the disease occurred in 2006-07. This study investigates the spatial and temporal pattern of RVF outbreaks in Tanzania over the past 80 years in order to guide prevention and control strategies. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective study was carried out based on disease reporting data from Tanzania at district or village level. The data were sourced from the Ministries responsible for livestock and human health, Tanzania Meteorological Agency and research institutions involved in RVF surveillance and diagnosis. The spatial distribution of outbreaks was mapped using ArcGIS 10. The space-time permutation model was applied to identify clusters of cases, and a multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify risk factors associated with the occurrence of outbreaks in the district. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: RVF outbreaks were reported between December and June in 1930, 1947, 1957, 1960, 1963, 1968, 1977-79, 1989, 1997-98 and 2006-07 in 39.2% of the districts in Tanzania. There was statistically significant spatio-temporal clustering of outbreaks. RVF occurrence was associated with the eastern Rift Valley ecosystem (OR = 6.14, CI: 1.96, 19.28), total amount of rainfall of >405.4 mm (OR = 12.36, CI: 3.06, 49.88), soil texture (clay [OR = 8.76, CI: 2.52, 30.50], and loam [OR = 8.79, CI: 2.04, 37.82]). CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: RVF outbreaks were found to be distributed heterogeneously and transmission dynamics appeared to vary between areas. The sequence of outbreak waves, continuously cover more parts of the country. Whenever infection has been introduced into an area, it is likely to be involved in future outbreaks. The cases were more likely to be reported from the eastern Rift Valley than from the western Rift Valley ecosystem and from areas with clay and loam rather than sandy soil texture.

Peste des petits ruminants infection among cattle and wildlife in northern Tanzania.

We investigated peste des petits ruminants (PPR) infection in cattle and wildlife in northern Tanzania. No wildlife from protected ecosystems were seropositive. However, cattle from villages where an outbreak had occurred among small ruminants showed high PPR seropositivity, indicating that spillover infection affects cattle. Thus, cattle could be of value for PPR serosurveillance.

Evaluating the potential for the environmentally sustainable control of foot and mouth disease in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Strategies to control transboundary diseases have in the past generated unintended negative consequences for both the environment and local human populations. Integrating perspectives from across disciplines, including livestock, veterinary and conservation sectors, is necessary for identifying disease control strategies that optimise environmental goods and services at the wildlife-livestock interface. Prompted by the recent development of a global strategy for the control and elimination of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), this paper seeks insight into the consequences of, and rational options for potential FMD control measures in relation to environmental, conservation and human poverty considerations in Africa. We suggest a more environmentally nuanced process of FMD control that safe-guards the integrity of wild populations and the ecosystem dynamics on which human livelihoods depend while simultaneously improving socio-economic conditions of rural people. In particular, we outline five major issues that need to be considered: 1) improved understanding of the different FMD viral strains and how they circulate between domestic and wildlife populations; 2) an appreciation for the economic value of wildlife for many African countries whose presence might preclude the country from ever achieving an FMD-free status; 3) exploring ways in which livestock production can be improved without compromising wildlife such as implementing commodity-based trading schemes; 4) introducing a participatory approach involving local farmers and the national veterinary services in the control of FMD; and 5) finally the possibility that trans frontier conservation might offer new hope of integrating decision-making at the wildlife-livestock interface.

The incursion, persistence and spread of peste des petits ruminants in Tanzania: epidemiological patterns and predictions.

Peste des petits ruminants virus, which causes a severe disease in sheep and goats, has only recently been officially declared to be present in Tanzania. An epidemiological study was carried out between September 2008 and October 2010 to investigate the incursion, persistence and spread of the virus in Tanzania. The investigation involved serosurveillance, outbreak investigation and computation of epidemiological indices such as the effective reproductive number, persistence and the threshold level for vaccination. Field and molecular epidemiological techniques were applied to isolate, characterise and trace the origin of the virus in Tanzania. A total of 2182 serum samples from goats and 1296 from sheep from 79 villages across 12 districts were investigated. Village-level prevalence of infection was variable (0.00% ­ 88.00%) and was higher in pastoral than in agro-pastoral villages. The overall antibody response to the virus was 22.10% (CI95% = 20.72% ­ 23.48%). About 68.00% and 73.00% of seropositive goats and sheep, respectively, did not show clinical signs. The proportion of seropositive animals differed significantly (p ≤ 0.001) between age groups, sex and farming practices. Real-time polymerase chain reaction results showed that the isolated strains belong to lineage III, whose origin is in East Africa and the Middle East. This indicates that one of the northern neighbouring countries is most likely the source of infection. The computed overall effective reproductive number, the threshold level of vaccination necessary to eradicate the disease and persistence were 4.75% and 98.00%, respectively. These estimates indicate that achieving elimination of the peste des petits ruminants virus from pastoral flocks will require significant effort and development of highly effective intervention tools.

Epidemiological perspectives of ticks and tick-borne diseases in South Sudan: cross-sectional survey results.

A cross-sectional study was conducted between September and October 2010 in five states of South Sudan that were selected on the basis of the perceived risk of tick-borne diseases. The purpose was to investigate epidemiological parameters of tick-borne diseases in South Sudan and their uses in future control strategies. A total of 805 calves were assessed by clinical, microscopic and serological examination and tick counts. The indirect Enzyme-Linked Immuno-Sorbent Assay (ELISA) was used to detect antibodies to Theileria parva, Theileria mutans, Anaplasma marginale and Babesian bigemina. Sero-conversion risks for T. parva and T. mutans were 27.3% and 31.3% respectively, whilst the risk was 57.6% and 52.8% for A. marginale and B. bigemina, respectively. Major tick species identified include Rhipicephalus appendiculatus, Rhipicephalus decoloratus, Rhipicephalus microplus, Amblyomma variegatum, and Rhipicephalus evertsi. There was great variation (P ≤ 0.001) in the number of all these ticks, both between herds in a state and between calves in an individual herd. The low and intermediate sero-conversion risks observed in the study states suggest that immunisation against East Coast fever (ECF) is justified. Fortunately, three major genotypes that were identified by applying Polymerase Chain Reaction Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism (PCRRFLP) analysis on the p104 to the blood samples and T. parva Muguga, matched very well with T. parva Kiambu 5 and T. parva Muguga; therefore the Muguga cocktail can be used for the immunisation of cattle in South Sudan. However, prospective studies are required to develop optimal control measures for tick-borne diseases under different ecological and husbandry practices in South Sudan.

Foot-and-mouth disease virus serotypes detected in Tanzania from 2003 to 2010: conjectured status and future prospects.

This study was conducted to investigate the presence of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) in different geographic locations of Tanzania. Epithelial tissues and fluids (n = 364) were collected from cattle exhibiting oral and foot vesicular lesions suggestive of FMD and submitted for routine FMD diagnosis. The analysis of these samples collected during the period of 2002 and 2010 was performed by serotype-specific antigen capture ELISA to determine the presence of FMDV. The results of this study indicated that 167 out of 364 (46.1%) of the samples contained FMDV antigen. Of the 167 positive samples, 37 (28.4%) were type O, 7 (4.1%) type A, 45 (21.9%) SAT 1 and 79 (45.6%) SAT 2. Two FMDV serotypes (O and SAT 2) were widely distributed throughout Tanzania whilst SAT 1 and A types were only found in the Eastern zone. Our findings suggest that serotypes A, O, SAT 1 and SAT 2 prevail in Tanzania and are associated with the recent FMD outbreaks. The lack of comprehensive animal movement records and inconsistent vaccination programmes make it difficult to determine the exact source of FMD outbreaks or to trace the transmission of the disease over time. Therefore, further collection and analysis of samples from domestic and wild animals are being undertaken to investigate the genetic and antigenic characteristics of the circulating strains, so that a rational method to control FMD in Tanzania and the neighbouring countries can be recommended.

Are we prepared for emerging and re-emerging diseases? Experience and lessons from epidemics that occurred in Tanzania during the last five decades.

This paper reviews preparedness for containing and controlling emerging and re-emerging diseases drawing lessons from disease events that occurred in animal and human populations in the last five decades (1961-2011). A comprehensive analysis based on retrieval and analysis of grey and published literature as well as reported cases was carried out to document type and trend of occurrence of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in different parts of Tanzania. Overall, the majority of diseases reported in the country were viral in nature followed by bacterial diseases. The trend for the occurrence shows a number of new emerging diseases as well as re-occurrence of old diseases in both animal (domestic and wild) and human populations. In humans, the major disease epidemics reported in the last five decades include cholera, influenza A H1N1, plague and rubella. In animals, the major epidemic diseases reported were Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia, Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia, Peste des petits ruminants and Giraffe Ear and Skin Diseases. Some epidemics have been reported in both human and animal populations including Rift Valley fever and anthrax. The emergence of the 'fit-for purpose' approaches and technologies such as the discipline of One Health, use of participatory epidemiology and disease surveillance and mobile technologies offers opportunity for optimal use of limited resources to improve early detection, diagnosis and response to disease events and consequently reduced impact of such diseases in animal and human populations.