The influence of cross-border mobility on the COVID-19 epidemic in Nordic countries.

Restrictions of cross-border mobility are typically used to prevent an emerging disease from entering a country in order to slow down its spread. However, such interventions can come with a significant societal cost and should thus be based on careful analysis and quantitative understanding on their effects. To this end, we model the influence of cross-border mobility on the spread of COVID-19 during 2020 in the neighbouring Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. We investigate the immediate impact of cross-border travel on disease spread and employ counterfactual scenarios to explore the cumulative effects of introducing additional infected individuals into a population during the ongoing epidemic. Our results indicate that the effect of inter-country mobility on epidemic growth is non-negligible essentially when there is sizeable mobility from a high prevalence country or countries to a low prevalence one. Our findings underscore the critical importance of accurate data and models on both epidemic progression and travel patterns in informing decisions related to inter-country mobility restrictions.

Effectiveness of contact tracing on networks with cliques.

Contact tracing, the practice of isolating individuals who have been in contact with infected individuals, is an effective and practical way of containing disease spread. Here we show that this strategy is particularly effective in the presence of social groups: Once the disease enters a group, contact tracing not only cuts direct infection paths but can also pre-emptively quarantine group members such that it will cut indirect spreading routes. We show these results by using a deliberately stylized model that allows us to isolate the effect of contact tracing within the clique structure of the network where the contagion is spreading. This will enable us to derive mean-field approximations and epidemic thresholds to demonstrate the efficiency of contact tracing in social networks with small groups. This analysis shows that contact tracing in networks with groups is more efficient the larger the groups are. We show how these results can be understood by approximating the combination of disease spreading and contact tracing with a complex contagion process where every failed infection attempt will lead to a lower infection probability in the following attempts. Our results illustrate how contact tracing in real-world settings can be more efficient than predicted by models that treat the system as fully mixed or the network structure as locally treelike.

Herd immunity and epidemic size in networks with vaccination homophily.

We study how the herd immunity threshold and the expected epidemic size depend on homophily with respect to vaccine adoption. We find that the presence of homophily considerably increases the critical vaccine coverage needed for herd immunity and that strong homophily can push the threshold entirely out of reach. The epidemic size monotonically increases as a function of homophily strength for a perfect vaccine, while it is maximized at a nontrivial level of homophily when the vaccine efficacy is limited. Our results highlight the importance of vaccination homophily in epidemic modeling.

Directed percolation in random temporal network models with heterogeneities.

The event graph representation of temporal networks suggests that the connectivity of temporal structures can be mapped to a directed percolation problem. However, similarly to percolation theory on static networks, this mapping is valid under the approximation that the structure and interaction dynamics of the temporal network are determined by its local properties, and, otherwise, it is maximally random. We challenge these conditions and demonstrate the robustness of this mapping in case of more complicated systems. We systematically analyze random and regular network topologies and heterogeneous link-activation processes driven by bursty renewal or self-exciting processes using numerical simulation and finite-size scaling methods. We find that the critical percolation exponents characterizing the temporal network are not sensitive to many structural and dynamical network heterogeneities, while they recover known scaling exponents characterizing directed percolation on low-dimensional lattices. While it is not possible to demonstrate the validity of this mapping for all temporal network models, our results establish the first batch of evidence supporting the robustness of the scaling relationships in the limited-time reachability of temporal networks.

Epidemic spreading and digital contact tracing: Effects of heterogeneous mixing and quarantine failures.

Contact tracing via digital tracking applications installed on mobile phones is an important tool for controlling epidemic spreading. Its effectivity can be quantified by modifying the standard methodology for analyzing percolation and connectivity of contact networks. We apply this framework to networks with varying degree distributions, numbers of application users, and probabilities of quarantine failures. Further, we study structured populations with homophily and heterophily and the possibility of degree-targeted application distribution. Our results are based on a combination of explicit simulations and mean-field analysis. They indicate that there can be major differences in the epidemic size and epidemic probabilities which are equivalent in the normal susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) processes. Further, degree heterogeneity is seen to be especially important for the epidemic threshold but not as much for the epidemic size. The probability that tracing leads to quarantines is not as important as the application adoption rate. Finally, both strong homophily and especially heterophily with regard to application adoption can be detrimental. Overall, epidemic dynamics are very sensitive to all of the parameter values we tested out, which makes the problem of estimating the effect of digital contact tracing an inherently multidimensional problem.

Adaptive and optimized COVID-19 vaccination strategies across geographical regions and age groups.

We evaluate the efficiency of various heuristic strategies for allocating vaccines against COVID-19 and compare them to strategies found using optimal control theory. Our approach is based on a mathematical model which tracks the spread of disease among different age groups and across different geographical regions, and we introduce a method to combine age-specific contact data to geographical movement data. As a case study, we model the epidemic in the population of mainland Finland utilizing mobility data from a major telecom operator. Our approach allows to determine which geographical regions and age groups should be targeted first in order to minimize the number of deaths. In the scenarios that we test, we find that distributing vaccines demographically and in an age-descending order is not optimal for minimizing deaths and the burden of disease. Instead, more lives could be saved by using strategies which emphasize high-incidence regions and distribute vaccines in parallel to multiple age groups. The level of emphasis that high-incidence regions should be given depends on the overall transmission rate in the population. This observation highlights the importance of updating the vaccination strategy when the effective reproduction number changes due to the general contact patterns changing and new virus variants entering.

Privacy and uniqueness of neighborhoods in social networks.

The ability to share social network data at the level of individual connections is beneficial to science: not only for reproducing results, but also for researchers who may wish to use it for purposes not foreseen by the data releaser. Sharing such data, however, can lead to serious privacy issues, because individuals could be re-identified, not only based on possible nodes' attributes, but also from the structure of the network around them. The risk associated with re-identification can be measured and it is more serious in some networks than in others. While various optimization algorithms have been proposed to anonymize networks, there is still only a limited theoretical understanding of which network features are important for the privacy problem. Using network models and real data, we show that the average degree of networks is a crucial parameter for the severity of re-identification risk from nodes' neighborhoods. Dense networks are more at risk, and, apart from a small band of average degree values, either almost all nodes are uniquely re-identifiable or they are all safe. Our results allow researchers to assess the privacy risk based on a small number of network statistics which are available even before the data is collected. As a rule-of-thumb, the privacy risks are high if the average degree is above 10. Guided by these results, we explore sampling of edges as a strategy to mitigate the re-identification risk of nodes. This approach can be implemented during the data collection phase, and its effect on various network measures can be estimated and corrected using sampling theory. The new understanding of the uniqueness of neighborhoods in networks presented in this work can support the development of privacy-aware ways of designing network data collection procedures, anonymization methods, and sharing network data.

Burst-tree decomposition of time series reveals the structure of temporal correlations.

Comprehensive characterization of non-Poissonian, bursty temporal patterns observed in various natural and social processes is crucial for understanding the underlying mechanisms behind such temporal patterns. Among them bursty event sequences have been studied mostly in terms of interevent times (IETs), while the higher-order correlation structure between IETs has gained very little attention due to the lack of a proper characterization method. In this paper we propose a method of representing an event sequence by a burst tree, which is then decomposed into a set of IETs and an ordinal burst tree. The ordinal burst tree exactly captures the structure of temporal correlations that is entirely missing in the analysis of IET distributions. We apply this burst-tree decomposition method to various datasets and analyze the structure of the revealed burst trees. In particular, we observe that event sequences show similar burst-tree structure, such as heavy-tailed burst-size distributions, despite of very different IET distributions. This clearly shows that the IET distributions and the burst-tree structures can be separable. The burst trees allow us to directly characterize the preferential and assortative mixing structure of bursts responsible for the higher-order temporal correlations. We also show how to use the decomposition method for the systematic investigation of such correlations captured by the burst trees in the framework of randomized reference models. Finally, we devise a simple kernel-based model for generating event sequences showing appropriate higher-order temporal correlations. Our method is a tool to make the otherwise overwhelming analysis of higher-order correlations in bursty time series tractable by turning it into the analysis of a tree structure.

Efficient limited-time reachability estimation in temporal networks.

Time-limited states characterize many dynamical processes on networks: disease-infected individuals recover after some time, people forget news spreading on social networks, or passengers may not wait forever for a connection. These dynamics can be described as limited-waiting-time processes, and they are particularly important for systems modeled as temporal networks. These processes have been studied via simulations, which is equivalent to repeatedly finding all limited-waiting-time temporal paths from a source node and time. We propose a method yielding an orders-of-magnitude more efficient way of tracking the reachability of such temporal paths. Our method gives simultaneous estimates of the in- or out-reachability (with any chosen waiting-time limit) from every possible starting point and time. It works on very large temporal networks with hundreds of millions of events on current commodity computing hardware. This opens up the possibility to analyze reachability and dynamics of spreading processes on large temporal networks in completely new ways. For example, one can now compute centralities based on global reachability for all events or can find with high probability the infected node and time, which would lead to the largest epidemic outbreak.

Cumulative effects of triadic closure and homophily in social networks.

Social network structure has often been attributed to two network evolution mechanisms-triadic closure and choice homophily-which are commonly considered independently or with static models. However, empirical studies suggest that their dynamic interplay generates the observed homophily of real-world social networks. By combining these mechanisms in a dynamic model, we confirm the longheld hypothesis that choice homophily and triadic closure cause induced homophily. We estimate how much observed homophily in friendship and communication networks is amplified due to triadic closure. We find that cumulative effects of homophily amplification can also lead to the widely documented core-periphery structure of networks, and to memory of homophilic constraints (equivalent to hysteresis in physics). The model shows that even small individual bias may prompt network-level changes such as segregation or core group dominance. Our results highlight that individual-level mechanisms should not be analyzed separately without considering the dynamics of society as a whole.

Mapping temporal-network percolation to weighted, static event graphs.

The dynamics of diffusion-like processes on temporal networks are influenced by correlations in the times of contacts. This influence is particularly strong for processes where the spreading agent has a limited lifetime at nodes: disease spreading (recovery time), diffusion of rumors (lifetime of information), and passenger routing (maximum acceptable time between transfers). We introduce weighted event graphs as a powerful and fast framework for studying connectivity determined by time-respecting paths where the allowed waiting times between contacts have an upper limit. We study percolation on the weighted event graphs and in the underlying temporal networks, with simulated and real-world networks. We show that this type of temporal-network percolation is analogous to directed percolation, and that it can be characterized by multiple order parameters.

Dynamics of investor spanning trees around dot-com bubble.

We identify temporal investor networks for Nokia stock by constructing networks from correlations between investor-specific net-volumes and analyze changes in the networks around dot-com bubble. The analysis is conducted separately for households, financial, and non-financial institutions. Our results indicate that spanning tree measures for households reflected the boom and crisis: the maximum spanning tree measures had a clear upward tendency in the bull markets when the bubble was building up, and, even more importantly, the minimum spanning tree measures pre-reacted the burst of the bubble. At the same time, we find less clear reactions in the minimal and maximal spanning trees of non-financial and financial institutions around the bubble, which suggests that household investors can have a greater herding tendency around bubbles.

Estimating interevent time distributions from finite observation periods in communication networks.

A diverse variety of processes-including recurrent disease episodes, neuron firing, and communication patterns among humans-can be described using interevent time (IET) distributions. Many such processes are ongoing, although event sequences are only available during a finite observation window. Because the observation time window is more likely to begin or end during long IETs than during short ones, the analysis of such data is susceptible to a bias induced by the finite observation period. In this paper, we illustrate how this length bias is born and how it can be corrected without assuming any particular shape for the IET distribution. To do this, we model event sequences using stationary renewal processes, and we formulate simple heuristics for determining the severity of the bias. To illustrate our results, we focus on the example of empirical communication networks, which are temporal networks that are constructed from communication events. The IET distributions of such systems guide efforts to build models of human behavior, and the variance of IETs is very important for estimating the spreading rate of information in networks of temporal interactions. We analyze several well-known data sets from the literature, and we find that the resulting bias can lead to systematic underestimates of the variance in the IET distributions and that correcting for the bias can lead to qualitatively different results for the tails of the IET distributions.

EDENetworks: a user-friendly software to build and analyse networks in biogeography, ecology and population genetics.

The recent application of graph-based network theory analysis to biogeography, community ecology and population genetics has created a need for user-friendly software, which would allow a wider accessibility to and adaptation of these methods. EDENetworks aims to fill this void by providing an easy-to-use interface for the whole analysis pipeline of ecological and evolutionary networks starting from matrices of species distributions, genotypes, bacterial OTUs or populations characterized genetically. The user can choose between several different ecological distance metrics, such as Bray-Curtis or Sorensen distance, or population genetic metrics such as FST or Goldstein distances, to turn the raw data into a distance/dissimilarity matrix. This matrix is then transformed into a network by manual or automatic thresholding based on percolation theory or by building the minimum spanning tree. The networks can be visualized along with auxiliary data and analysed with various metrics such as degree, clustering coefficient, assortativity and betweenness centrality. The statistical significance of the results can be estimated either by resampling the original biological data or by null models based on permutations of the data.

Networks of emotion concepts.

The aim of this work was to study the similarity network and hierarchical clustering of Finnish emotion concepts. Native speakers of Finnish evaluated similarity between the 50 most frequently used Finnish words describing emotional experiences. We hypothesized that methods developed within network theory, such as identifying clusters and specific local network structures, can reveal structures that would be difficult to discover using traditional methods such as multidimensional scaling (MDS) and ordinary cluster analysis. The concepts divided into three main clusters, which can be described as negative, positive, and surprise. Negative and positive clusters divided further into meaningful sub-clusters, corresponding to those found in previous studies. Importantly, this method allowed the same concept to be a member in more than one cluster. Our results suggest that studying particular network structures that do not fit into a low-dimensional description can shed additional light on why subjects evaluate certain concepts as similar. To encourage the use of network methods in analyzing similarity data, we provide the analysis software for free use (http://www.becs.tkk.fi/similaritynets/).

Using explosive percolation in analysis of real-world networks.

We apply a variant of the explosive percolation procedure to large real-world networks and show with finite-size scaling that the university class, ordinary or explosive, of the resulting percolation transition depends on the structural properties of the network, as well as the number of unoccupied links considered for comparison in our procedure. We observe that in our social networks, the percolation clusters close to the critical point are related to the community structure. This relationship is further highlighted by applying the procedure to model networks with predefined communities.

Characterizing the community structure of complex networks.

BACKGROUND: Community structure is one of the key properties of complex networks and plays a crucial role in their topology and function. While an impressive amount of work has been done on the issue of community detection, very little attention has been so far devoted to the investigation of communities in real networks. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We present a systematic empirical analysis of the statistical properties of communities in large information, communication, technological, biological, and social networks. We find that the mesoscopic organization of networks of the same category is remarkably similar. This is reflected in several characteristics of community structure, which can be used as "fingerprints" of specific network categories. While community size distributions are always broad, certain categories of networks consist mainly of tree-like communities, while others have denser modules. Average path lengths within communities initially grow logarithmically with community size, but the growth saturates or slows down for communities larger than a characteristic size. This behaviour is related to the presence of hubs within communities, whose roles differ across categories. Also the community embeddedness of nodes, measured in terms of the fraction of links within their communities, has a characteristic distribution for each category. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings, verified by the use of two fundamentally different community detection methods, allow for a classification of real networks and pave the way to a realistic modelling of networks' evolution.

Sequential algorithm for fast clique percolation.

In complex network research clique percolation, introduced by Palla, Derényi, and Vicsek [Nature (London) 435, 814 (2005)], is a deterministic community detection method which allows for overlapping communities and is purely based on local topological properties of a network. Here we present a sequential clique percolation algorithm (SCP) to do fast community detection in weighted and unweighted networks, for cliques of a chosen size. This method is based on sequentially inserting the constituent links to the network and simultaneously keeping track of the emerging community structure. Unlike existing algorithms, the SCP method allows for detecting k -clique communities at multiple weight thresholds in a single run, and can simultaneously produce a dendrogram representation of hierarchical community structure. In sparse weighted networks, the SCP algorithm can also be used for implementing the weighted clique percolation method recently introduced by Farkas [New J. Phys. 9, 180 (2007)]. The computational time of the SCP algorithm scales linearly with the number of k -cliques in the network. As an example, the method is applied to a product association network, revealing its nested community structure.

Generalizations of the clustering coefficient to weighted complex networks.

The recent high level of interest in weighted complex networks gives rise to a need to develop new measures and to generalize existing ones to take the weights of links into account. Here we focus on various generalizations of the clustering coefficient, which is one of the central characteristics in the complex network theory. We present a comparative study of the several suggestions introduced in the literature, and point out their advantages and limitations. The concepts are illustrated by simple examples as well as by empirical data of the world trade and weighted coauthorship networks.