Epidemic modelling suggests that in specific circumstances masks may become more effective when fewer contacts wear them.

BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 depends on many contextual factors, including adherence. Conventional wisdom holds that the effectiveness of protective behaviours, such as wearing masks, increases with the number of people who adopt them. Here we show in a simulation study that this is not always true. METHODS: We use a parsimonious network model based on the well-established empirical facts that adherence to such interventions wanes over time and that individuals tend to align their adoption strategies with their close social ties (homophily). RESULTS: When these assumptions are combined, a broad dynamic regime emerges in which the individual-level reduction in infection risk for those adopting protective behaviour increases as adherence to protective behaviour decreases. For instance, at 10 % coverage, we find that adopters face nearly a 30 % lower infection risk than at 60 % coverage. Based on surgical mask effectiveness estimates, the relative risk reduction for masked individuals ranges from 5 % to 15 %, or a factor of three. This small coverage effect occurs when the outbreak is over before the pathogen is able to invade small but closely knit groups of individuals who protect themselves. CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm that lower coverage reduces protection at the population level while contradicting the common belief that masking becomes ineffective at the individual level as more people drop their masks.

Face masks have been used as one tool to protect people against COVID-19 infection. Here, we perform mathematical simulations to investigate how well mask-wearing works in different scenarios. Counterintuitively, our simulations showed that as fewer people follow these measures, the risk of infection decreases for those who still do. For instance, when only 10% of people follow them, their infection risk gets reduced by almost 30% compared to situations where 60% follow. Our findings challenge the idea that masks become ineffective when fewer people wear them. The overall public health benefit still increases as more people wear masks, but their protective effect at the individual level can still be substantial if only a few people wear them.

Genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 evolution by a centralised pipeline and weekly focused sequencing, Austria, January 2021 to March 2023.

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic was largely driven by genetic mutations of SARS-CoV-2, leading in some instances to enhanced infectiousness of the virus or its capacity to evade the host immune system. To closely monitor SARS-CoV-2 evolution and resulting variants at genomic-level, an innovative pipeline termed SARSeq was developed in Austria.AimWe discuss technical aspects of the SARSeq pipeline, describe its performance and present noteworthy results it enabled during the pandemic in Austria.MethodsThe SARSeq pipeline was set up as a collaboration between private and public clinical diagnostic laboratories, a public health agency, and an academic institution. Representative SARS-CoV-2 positive specimens from each of the nine Austrian provinces were obtained from SARS-CoV-2 testing laboratories and processed centrally in an academic setting for S-gene sequencing and analysis.ResultsSARS-CoV-2 sequences from up to 2,880 cases weekly resulted in 222,784 characterised case samples in January 2021-March 2023. Consequently, Austria delivered the fourth densest genomic surveillance worldwide in a very resource-efficient manner. While most SARS-CoV-2 variants during the study showed comparable kinetic behaviour in all of Austria, some, like Beta, had a more focused spread. This highlighted multifaceted aspects of local population-level acquired immunity. The nationwide surveillance system enabled reliable nowcasting. Measured early growth kinetics of variants were predictive of later incidence peaks.ConclusionWith low automation, labour, and cost requirements, SARSeq is adaptable to monitor other pathogens and advantageous even for resource-limited countries. This multiplexed genomic surveillance system has potential as a rapid response tool for future emerging threats.

A national evaluation analysis and expert interview study of real-world data sources for research and healthcare decision-making.

Real-world data (RWD) can provide intel (real-world evidence, RWE) for research and development, as well as policy and regulatory decision-making along the full spectrum of health care. Despite calls from global regulators for international collaborations to integrate RWE into regulatory decision-making and to bridge knowledge gaps, some challenges remain. In this work, we performed an evaluation of Austrian RWD sources using a multilateral query approach, crosschecked against previously published RWD criteria and conducted direct interviews with representative RWD source samples. This article provides an overview of 73 out of 104 RWD sources in a national legislative setting where major attempts are made to enable secondary use of RWD (e.g. law on the organisation of research, "Forschungsorganisationsgesetz"). We were able to detect omnipresent challenges associated with data silos, variable standardisation efforts and governance issues. Our findings suggest a strong need for a national health data strategy and data governance framework, which should inform researchers, as well as policy- and decision-makers, to improve RWD-based research in the healthcare sector to ultimately support actual regulatory decision-making and provide strategic information for governmental health data policies.

Forecasting the Early Impact of COVID-19 on Physician Supply in EU Countries.

BACKGROUND: Many countries faced health workforce challenges even before the pandemic, such as impending retirements, negative population growth, or sub-optimal allocation of resources across health sectors. Current quantitative models are often of limited use, either because they require extensive individual-level data to be properly calibrated, or (in the absence of such data) because they are too simplistic to capture important demographic changes or disruptive epidemiological shocks such as the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Method: We propose a population-dynamic and stock-flow-consistent approach to physician supply forecasting that is complex enough to account for dynamically changing behaviour, while requiring only publicly available time-series data for full calibration. We demonstrate the utility of this model by applying it to 21 European countries to forecast the supply of generalist and specialist physicians to 2040, and the impact of increased health care utilisation due to Covid on this supply. RESULTS: Compared with the workforce needed to maintain physician density at 2019 levels, we find that in many countries there is indeed a significant trend towards decreasing generalist density at the expense of increasing specialist density. The trends for specialists are exacerbated by expectations of negative population growth in many Southern and Eastern European countries. Compared to the expected demographic changes in the population and the health workforce, we expect a limited impact of Covid on these trends, even under conservative modelling assumptions. Finally, we generalise the approach to a multi-professional, multi-regional and multi-sectoral model for Austria, where we find an additional suboptimal distribution in the supply of contracted versus non-contracted (private) physicians. CONCLUSION: It is therefore vital to develop tools for decision-makers to influence the allocation and supply of doctors across specialties and sectors to address these imbalances.

Unraveling cradle-to-grave disease trajectories from multilayer comorbidity networks.

We aim to comprehensively identify typical life-spanning trajectories and critical events that impact patients' hospital utilization and mortality. We use a unique dataset containing 44 million records of almost all inpatient stays from 2003 to 2014 in Austria to investigate disease trajectories. We develop a new, multilayer disease network approach to quantitatively analyze how cooccurrences of two or more diagnoses form and evolve over the life course of patients. Nodes represent diagnoses in age groups of ten years; each age group makes up a layer of the comorbidity multilayer network. Inter-layer links encode a significant correlation between diagnoses (p < 0.001, relative risk > 1.5), while intra-layers links encode correlations between diagnoses across different age groups. We use an unsupervised clustering algorithm for detecting typical disease trajectories as overlapping clusters in the multilayer comorbidity network. We identify critical events in a patient's career as points where initially overlapping trajectories start to diverge towards different states. We identified 1260 distinct disease trajectories (618 for females, 642 for males) that on average contain 9 (IQR 2-6) different diagnoses that cover over up to 70 years (mean 23 years). We found 70 pairs of diverging trajectories that share some diagnoses at younger ages but develop into markedly different groups of diagnoses at older ages. The disease trajectory framework can help us to identify critical events as specific combinations of risk factors that put patients at high risk for different diagnoses decades later. Our findings enable a data-driven integration of personalized life-course perspectives into clinical decision-making.

Forensic analysis of the Turkey 2023 presidential election reveals extreme vote swings in remote areas.

Concerns about the integrity of Turkey's elections have increased with the recent transition from a parliamentary democracy to an executive presidency under Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Election forensics tools are used to identify statistical traces of certain types of electoral fraud, providing important information about the integrity and validity of democratic elections. Such analyses of the 2017 and 2018 Turkish elections revealed that malpractices such as ballot stuffing or voter manipulation may indeed have played a significant role in determining the election results. Here, we apply election forensic statistical tests for ballot stuffing and voter manipulation to the results of the 2023 presidential election in Turkey. We find that both rounds of the 2023 presidential election exhibit similar statistical irregularities to those observed in the 2018 presidential election, however the magnitude of these distortions has decreased. We estimate that 2.4% (SD 1.9%) and 1.9% (SD 1.7%) of electoral units may have been affected by ballot stuffing practices in favour of Erdogan in the first and second rounds, respectively, compared to 8.5% (SD 3.9%) in 2018. Areas with smaller polling stations and fewer ballot boxes had significantly inflated votes and turnout, again, in favor of Erdogan. Furthermore, electoral districts with two or fewer ballot boxes were more likely to show large swings in vote shares in favour of Erdogan from the first to the second round. Based on a statistical model, it is estimated that these shifts account for 342,000 additional ballots (SD 4,900) or 0.64% for Erdogan, which is lower than the 4.36% margin by which Erdogan was victorious. Our results suggest that Turkish elections continue to be riddled with statistical irregularities, that may be indicative of electoral fraud.

Diabetes incidence in Austria: The role of famines on diabetes and related NCDs.

Undernutrition in early life associates with increased risk for type 2 diabetes in later life. Whether similar associations hold for other diseases remains unclear. We aim to quantify how perinatal exposure to famines relates to the risk of becoming incident with type 2 diabetes in later life. Using population-wide medical claims data for Austrians aged >50y, yearly diabetes incidence was measured in an epidemiological progression model. We find incidence rates that increase from 2013 to 2017 and observe two famine-related birth cohorts of 5,887 patients with incidence rate increases for diabetes of up to 78% for males and 59% for females compared to cohorts born two years earlier. These cohorts show increased risks for multiple other diagnoses as well. Public health efforts to decrease diabetes must not only focus on lifestyle factors but also emphasize the importance of reproductive health and adequate nutrition during pregnancy and early postnatal life.

A comparison of synthetic data generation and federated analysis for enabling international evaluations of cardiovascular health.

Sharing health data for research purposes across international jurisdictions has been a challenge due to privacy concerns. Two privacy enhancing technologies that can enable such sharing are synthetic data generation (SDG) and federated analysis, but their relative strengths and weaknesses have not been evaluated thus far. In this study we compared SDG with federated analysis to enable such international comparative studies. The objective of the analysis was to assess country-level differences in the role of sex on cardiovascular health (CVH) using a pooled dataset of Canadian and Austrian individuals. The Canadian data was synthesized and sent to the Austrian team for analysis. The utility of the pooled (synthetic Canadian + real Austrian) dataset was evaluated by comparing the regression results from the two approaches. The privacy of the Canadian synthetic data was assessed using a membership disclosure test which showed an F1 score of 0.001, indicating low privacy risk. The outcome variable of interest was CVH, calculated through a modified CANHEART index. The main and interaction effect parameter estimates of the federated and pooled analyses were consistent and directionally the same. It took approximately one month to set up the synthetic data generation platform and generate the synthetic data, whereas it took over 1.5 years to set up the federated analysis system. Synthetic data generation can be an efficient and effective tool for enabling multi-jurisdictional studies while addressing privacy concerns.

Shock propagation from the Russia-Ukraine conflict on international multilayer food production network determines global food availability.

Dependencies in the global food production network can lead to shortages in numerous regions, as demonstrated by the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on global food supplies. Here we reveal the losses of 125 food products after a localized shock to agricultural production in 192 countries and territories using a multilayer network model of trade (direct) and conversion of food products (indirect), thereby quantifying 108 shock transmissions. We find that a complete agricultural production loss in Ukraine has heterogeneous impacts on other countries, causing relative losses of up to 89% in sunflower oil and 85% in maize via direct effects and up to 25% in poultry meat via indirect impacts. Whereas previous studies often treated products in isolation and did not account for product conversion during production, the present model considers the global propagation of local supply shocks along both production and trade relations, allowing for a comparison of different response strategies.

The Interplay of Adipokines, Body Composition and Glucose Homeostasis in Pregnant Women with a History of RYGB Operation.

Roux-en-Y gastric bypass operations (RYGB-OP) and pregnancy alter glucose homeostasis and the adipokine profile. This study investigates the relationship between adipokines and glucose metabolism during pregnancy post-RYGB-OP. (1) Methods: This is a post hoc analysis of a prospective cohort study during pregnancy in 25 women with an RYGB-OP (RY), 19 women with obesity (OB), and 19 normal-weight (NW) controls. Bioimpedance analysis (BIA) was used for metabolic characterization. Plasma levels of adiponectin, leptin, fibroblast-growth-factor 21 (FGF21), adipocyte fatty acid binding protein (AFABP), afamin, and secretagogin were obtained. (2) Results: The phase angle (φ) was lower in RY compared to OB and NW. Compared to OB, RY, and NW had lower leptin and AFABP levels, and higher adiponectin levels. φ correlated positively with leptin in RY (R = 0.63, p < 0.05) and negatively with adiponectin in OB and NW (R = -0.69, R = -0.69, p < 0.05). In RY, the Matsuda index correlated positively with FGF21 (R = 0.55, p < 0.05) and negatively with leptin (R = -0.5, p < 0.05). In OB, FGF21 correlated negatively with the disposition index (R = -0.66, p < 0.05). (3) Conclusions: The leptin, adiponectin, and AFABP levels differ between RY, OB, and NW and correlate with glucose metabolism and body composition. Thus, adipokines might influence energy homeostasis and maintenance of cellular health during pregnancy.

Systematic population-wide ecological analysis of regional variability in disease prevalence.

The prevalence of diseases often varies substantially from region to region. Besides basic demographic properties, the factors that drive the variability of each prevalence are to a large extent unknown. Here we show how regional prevalence variations in 115 different diseases relate to demographic, socio-economic, environmental factors and migratory background, as well as access to different types of health services such as primary, specialized and hospital healthcare. We have collected regional data for these risk factors at different levels of resolution; from large regions of care (Versorgungsregion) down to a 250 by 250 m square grid. Using multivariate regression analysis, we quantify the explanatory power of each independent variable in relation to the regional variation of the disease prevalence. We find that for certain diseases, such as acute heart conditions, diseases of the inner ear, mental and behavioral disorders due to substance abuse, up to 80% of the variance can be explained with these risk factors. For other diagnostic blocks, such as blood related diseases, injuries and poisoning however, the explanatory power is close to zero. We find that the time needed to travel from the inhabited center to the relevant hospital ward often contributes significantly to the disease risk, in particular for diabetes mellitus. Our results show that variations in disease burden across different regions can for many diseases be related to variations in demographic and socio-economic factors. Furthermore, our results highlight the relative importance of access to health care facilities in the treatment of chronic diseases like diabetes.

Obesity as pleiotropic risk state for metabolic and mental health throughout life.

Obesity, a highly prevalent disorder and central diagnosis of the metabolic syndrome, is linked to mental health by clinical observations and biological pathways. Patients with a diagnosis of obesity may show long-lasting increases in risk for receiving psychiatric co-diagnoses. Austrian national registry data of inpatient services from 1997 to 2014 were analyzed to detect associations between a hospital diagnosis of obesity (ICD-10: E66) and disorders grouped by level-3 ICD-10 codes. Data were stratified by age decades and associations between each pair of diagnoses were computed with the Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel method, providing odds ratios (OR) and p values corrected for multiple testing. Further, directions of the associations were assessed by calculating time-order-ratios. Receiving a diagnosis of obesity significantly increased the odds for a large spectrum of psychiatric disorders across all age groups, including depression, psychosis-spectrum, anxiety, eating and personality disorders (all pcorr < 0.01, all OR > 1.5). For all co-diagnoses except for psychosis-spectrum, obesity was significantly more often the diagnosis received first. Further, significant sex differences were found for most disorders, with women showing increased risk for all disorders except schizophrenia and nicotine addiction. In addition to the well-recognized role in promoting disorders related to the metabolic syndrome and severe cardiometabolic sequalae, obesity commonly precedes severe mental health disorders. Risk is most pronounced in young age groups and particularly increased in female patients. Consequently, thorough screening for mental health problems in patients with obesity is urgently called for to allow prevention and facilitate adequate treatment.

Trends in diabetes incidence in Austria 2013-2017.

This study aims to quantify whether age and sex groups in Austrian regions are equally affected by the rise of type 2 diabetes. Population-wide medical claims data was obtained for citizens in Austria aged above 50 year, who received antihyperglycemic treatments or underwent HbA1c monitoring between 2012 and 2017. Diabetes incidence was measured using an epidemiological diabetes progression model accounting for patients who discontinued antihyperglycemic therapy; the erratic group. Out of 746,184 patients, 268,680 (140,960 females) discontinued their treatment and/or monitoring for at least one year. Without adjusting for such erratic patients, incidence rates increase from 2013 to 2017 (females: from 0·5% to 1·1%, males: 0·5% to 1·2%), whereas they decrease in all groups after adjustments (females: - 0·3% to - 0·5%, males: - 0·4% to - 0·5%). Higher mortality was observed in the erratic group compared to patients on continued antihyperglycemic therapy (mean difference 12% and 14% for females and males, respectively). In summary, incidence strongly depends on age, sex and place of residency. One out of three patients with diabetes in Austria discontinued antihyperglycemic treatment or glycemic monitoring for at least one year. This newly identified subgroup raises concern regarding adherence and continuous monitoring of diabetes care and demands further evaluation.

Association of common mental disorders and related multimorbidity with subsequent labor market marginalization among refugee and Swedish-born young adults.

Background: Common mental disorders (CMDs), multimorbidity, and refugee status are associated with poor labor market outcome. Little is known about how these factors interact in young adults. Objective: We aimed to i) investigate whether the association of CMDs and multimorbidity with labor market marginalization (LMM) differs between refugee and Swedish-born young adults and ii) identify diagnostic groups with particularly high risk for LMM. Methods: This longitudinal registry-based study included individuals aged 20-25 years followed from 2012 to 2016 in Sweden (41,516 refugees and 207,729 age and sex-matched Swedish-born individuals). LMM was defined as granted disability pension (DP) or > 180 days of unemployment (UE). A disease co-occurrence network was constructed for all diagnostic groups from 2009 to 2011 to derive a personalized multimorbidity score for LMM. Multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios of LMM in refugee and Swedish-born youth as a function of their multimorbidity score. The relative risk (RR, 95% CI) of LMM for refugees with CMDs compared to Swedish-born with CMDs was computed in each diagnostic group. Results: In total, 5.5% of refugees and 7.2% of Swedish-born with CMDs were granted DP; 22.2 and 9.4%, respectively received UE benefit during follow-up. While both CMDs and multimorbidity independently elevated the risk of DP considerably in Swedish-born, CMDs but not multimorbidity elevated the risk of UE. Regarding UE in refugees, multimorbidity with the presence of CMDs showed stronger estimates. Multimorbidity interacted with refugee status toward UE (p < 0.0001) and with CMDs toward DP (p = 0.0049). Two diagnostic groups that demonstrated particularly high RR of UE were schizophrenia, schizotypal and delusional disorders (RR [95% CI]: 3.46 [1.77, 6.75]), and behavioral syndromes (RR [95% CI]: 3.41 [1.90, 6.10]). Conclusion: To combat LMM, public health measures and intervention strategies need to be tailored to young adults based on their CMDs, multimorbidity, and refugee status.

Atrial fibrillation and cancer: prevalence and relative risk from a nationwide study.

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an increasingly recognized codiagnosis in patients with cancer. Objectives: This study aimed to provide a robust and contemporary estimate on the coprevalence and relative risk of AF in patients with cancer. Methods: We conducted a nationwide analysis, utilizing diagnosis codes from the Austrian Association of Social Security Providers dataset. Estimates of the coprevalence of cancer and AF and the relative risk of AF in patients with cancer compared with individuals without cancer were obtained as point prevalences with binomial exact confidence intervals and summarized across age groups and cancer types with random-effects models. Results: Overall, 8,306,244 persons were included in the present analysis, of whom 158,675 (prevalence estimate, 1.91%; 95% CI, 1.90-1.92) had a cancer diagnosis code and 112,827 (1.36%; 95% CI, 1.35-1.36) an AF diagnosis code, respectively. The prevalence estimate for AF in patients with cancer was 9.77% (95% CI, 9.63-9.92) and 1.19% (95% CI, 1.19-1.20) in the noncancer population. Conversely, 13.74% (95% CI, 13.54-13.94) of patients with AF had a concurrent cancer diagnosis. The corresponding age-stratified random-effects relative risk ratio for AF in patients with cancer compared with no cancer diagnosis was 10.45 (95% CI, 7.47-14.62). The strongest associations between cancer and AF were observed in younger persons and patients with hematologic malignancies. Conclusion: Cancer and AF have a substantial coprevalence in the population. This finding corroborates the concept that cancer and AF have common risk factors and pathophysiology.

Partial Remodeling after Conservative Treatment of Trampoline Fractures in Children.

(1) Background: Trampoline fractures (proximal tibia fracture with positive anterior tilt) are increasing. This study represents the first attempt to determine the extent of remodeling in these fractures after conservative treatment (2) Methods: This Swiss prospective multicenter study included children aged 2 to 5 years with a trampoline fracture who were radiologically examined on the day of the accident and after one year. In addition, the anterior tilt angle was compared between the injured and unaffected tibia. Remodeling was defined as complete (final anterior tilt angle ≤ 0°), incomplete (smaller but still >0°), or no remodeling. (3) Results: The mean extent of remodeling was -3.5° (95% CI: -4.29°, -2.66°, p < 0.001). Among the 89 children included in the study, 26 (29.2%) showed complete, 63 (70.8%) incomplete, and 17 patients (19.1%) no remodeling. Comparison of the anterior tilt angles between the fractured and healthy tibia showed that the anterior tilt angle on the fractured leg was, on average larger by 2.82° (95% CI: 2.01°, 3.63°; p < 0.001). (4) Conclusions: Although the anterior tilt angle decreased during the study period, the majority of patients showed incomplete remodeling. In contrast, children with radiological examinations >1 year after the trauma showed advanced remodeling, suggesting that one year is too short to observe complete remodeling.

Simvastatin therapy in higher dosages deteriorates bone quality: Consistent evidence from population-wide patient data and interventional mouse studies.

BACKGROUND: Combining mouse experiments with big data analysis of the Austrian population, we investigated the association between high-dose statin treatment and bone quality. METHODS: The bone microarchitecture of the femur and vertebral body L4 was measured in male and ovariectomized female mice on a high-fat diet containing simvastatin (1.2 g/kg). A sex-specific matched big data analysis of Austrian health insurance claims using multiple logistic regression models was conducted (simvastatin 60-80 mg/day vs. controls; males: n = 138,666; females: n = 155,055). RESULTS: High-dose simvastatin impaired bone quality in male and ovariectomized mice. In the trabecular femur, simvastatin reduced bone volume (µm3: ♂, 213 ± 15 vs. 131 ± 7, p < 0.0001; ♀, 66 ± 7 vs. 44 ± 5, p = 0.02) and trabecular number (1/mm: ♂, 1.88 ± 0.09 vs. 1.27 ± 0.06, p < 0.0001; ♀, 0.60 ± 0.05 vs. 0.43 ± 0.04, p = 0.01). In the cortical femur, bone volume (mm3: ♂, 1.44 ± 0.03 vs. 1.34 ± 0.03, p = 0.009; ♀, 1.33 ± 0.03 vs. 1.12 ± 0.03, p = 0.0002) and cortical thickness were impaired (µm: ♂, 211 ± 4 vs. 189 ± 4, p = 0.0004; ♀, 193 ± 3 vs. 169 ± 3, p < 0.0001). Similar impairments were found in vertebral body L4. Simvastatin-induced changes in weight or glucose metabolism were excluded as mediators of deteriorations in bone quality. Results from mice were supported by a matched cohort analysis showing an association between high-dose simvastatin and increased risk of osteoporosis in patients (♂, OR: 5.91, CI: 3.17-10.99, p < 0.001; ♀, OR: 4.16, CI: 2.92-5.92, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: High-dose simvastatin dramatically reduces bone quality in obese male and ovariectomized female mice, suggesting that direct drug action accounts for the association between high dosage and increased risk of osteoporosis as observed in comparable human cohorts. The underlying pathophysiological mechanisms behind this relationship are presently unknown and require further investigation.

Supporting COVID-19 policy-making with a predictive epidemiological multi-model warning system.

BACKGROUND: In response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the Austrian governmental crisis unit commissioned a forecast consortium with regularly projections of case numbers and demand for hospital beds. The goal was to assess how likely Austrian ICUs would become overburdened with COVID-19 patients in the upcoming weeks. METHODS: We consolidated the output of three epidemiological models (ranging from agent-based micro simulation to parsimonious compartmental models) and published weekly short-term forecasts for the number of confirmed cases as well as estimates and upper bounds for the required hospital beds. RESULTS: We report on three key contributions by which our forecasting and reporting system has helped shaping Austria's policy to navigate the crisis, namely (i) when and where case numbers and bed occupancy are expected to peak during multiple waves, (ii) whether to ease or strengthen non-pharmaceutical intervention in response to changing incidences, and (iii) how to provide hospital managers guidance to plan health-care capacities. CONCLUSIONS: Complex mathematical epidemiological models play an important role in guiding governmental responses during pandemic crises, in particular when they are used as a monitoring system to detect epidemiological change points.

During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, health authorities make decisions on how and when to implement interventions such as social distancing to avoid overburdening hospitals and other parts of the healthcare system. We combined three mathematical models developed to predict the expected number of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases and hospitalizations over the next two weeks. This provides decision-makers and the general public with a combined forecast that is usually more accurate than any of the individual models. Our forecasting system has been used in Austria to decide when to strengthen or ease response measures.

Diabetes mellitus is associated with a higher relative risk for venous thromboembolism in females than in males.

AIMS: The risk for developing venous thromboembolism (VTE) is about equal in both sexes. Research suggests diabetes mellitus (DM) is a risk factor for pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis, both forms of VTE. We aimed at investigating the sex-specific impact of DM on VTE risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Medical claims data were analyzed in a retrospective, population-level cohort study in Austria between 1997 and 2014. 180,034 patients with DM were extracted and compared to 540,102 sex and age-matched controls without DM in terms of VTE risk and whether specific DM medications might modulate VTE risk. RESULTS: The risk to develop VTE was 1.4 times higher amongst patients with DM than controls (95% CI 1.36-1.43, p < 0.001). The association of DM with newly diagnosed VTE was significantly greater in females (OR = 1.52, 95% CI 1.46-1.58, p < 0.001) resulting in a relative risk increase of 1.17 (95% CI 1.11-1.23) across all age groups with a peak of 1.65 (95% CI 1.43-1.89) between 50 and 59 years. Dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors were associated with a higher risk for VTE amongst female DM patients (OR = 2.3, 95% CI 1.3-4.3, p = 0.0096). CONCLUSION: Amongst DM patients, females appear to be associated with a higher relative risk increase in VTE than males, especially during perimenopause.

Lifetime risk, life expectancy, and years of life lost to type 2 diabetes in 23 high-income jurisdictions: a multinational, population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes is a major public health issue. Because lifetime risk, life expectancy, and years of life lost are meaningful metrics for clinical decision making, we aimed to estimate these measures for type 2 diabetes in the high-income setting. METHODS: For this multinational, population-based study, we sourced data from 24 databases for 23 jurisdictions (either whole countries or regions of a country): Australia; Austria; Canada; Denmark; Finland; France; Germany; Hong Kong; Hungary; Israel; Italy; Japan; Latvia; Lithuania; the Netherlands; Norway; Scotland; Singapore; South Korea; Spain; Taiwan; the UK; and the USA. Our main outcomes were lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes, life expectancy in people with and without type 2 diabetes, and years of life lost to type 2 diabetes. We modelled the incidence and mortality of type 2 diabetes in people with and without type 2 diabetes in sex-stratified, age-adjusted, and calendar year-adjusted Poisson models for each jurisdiction. Using incidence and mortality, we constructed life tables for people of both sexes aged 20-100 years for each jurisdiction and at two timepoints 5 years apart in the period 2005-19 where possible. Life expectancy from a given age was computed as the area under the survival curves and lifetime lost was calculated as the difference between the expected lifetime of people with versus without type 2 diabetes at a given age. Lifetime risk was calculated as the proportion of each cohort who developed type 2 diabetes between the ages of 20 years and 100 years. We estimated 95% CIs using parametric bootstrapping. FINDINGS: Across all study cohorts from the 23 jurisdictions (total person-years 1 577 234 194), there were 5 119 585 incident cases of type 2 diabetes, 4 007 064 deaths in those with type 2 diabetes, and 11 854 043 deaths in those without type 2 diabetes. The lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes ranged from 16·3% (95% CI 15·6-17·0) for Scottish women to 59·6% (58·5-60·8) for Singaporean men. Lifetime risk declined with time in 11 of the 15 jurisdictions for which two timepoints were studied. Among people with type 2 diabetes, the highest life expectancies were found for both sexes in Japan in 2017-18, where life expectancy at age 20 years was 59·2 years (95% CI 59·2-59·3) for men and 64·1 years (64·0-64·2) for women. The lowest life expectancy at age 20 years with type 2 diabetes was observed in 2013-14 in Lithuania (43·7 years [42·7-44·6]) for men and in 2010-11 in Latvia (54·2 years [53·4-54·9]) for women. Life expectancy in people with type 2 diabetes increased with time for both sexes in all jurisdictions, except for Spain and Scotland. The life expectancy gap between those with and without type 2 diabetes declined substantially in Latvia from 2010-11 to 2015-16 and in the USA from 2009-10 to 2014-15. Years of life lost to type 2 diabetes ranged from 2·5 years (Latvia; 2015-16) to 12·9 years (Israel Clalit Health Services; 2015-16) for 20-year-old men and from 3·1 years (Finland; 2011-12) to 11·2 years (Israel Clalit Health Services; 2010-11 and 2015-16) for 20-year-old women. With time, the expected number of years of life lost to type 2 diabetes decreased in some jurisdictions and increased in others. The greatest decrease in years of life lost to type 2 diabetes occurred in the USA between 2009-10 and 2014-15 for 20-year-old men (a decrease of 2·7 years). INTERPRETATION: Despite declining lifetime risk and improvements in life expectancy for those with type 2 diabetes in many high-income jurisdictions, the burden of type 2 diabetes remains substantial. Public health strategies might benefit from tailored approaches to continue to improve health outcomes for people with diabetes. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Diabetes Australia.