Demography and threats to population growth of Cirsium pitcheri, a threatened dune plant, in Wisconsin.

Multi-year and multi-site demographic data for rare plants allow researchers to observe threats and project population growth rates and thus long-term persistence of the species, generating knowledge, which allows for effective conservation planning. Demographic studies across more than a decade are extremely rare but allow for the effects of threats to be observed and assessed within the context of interannual environmental variation. We collected demographic data on the Threatened plant Cirsium pitcheri in two sites from 2011-2022. These sites were chosen because one exhibited the presence of non-native seed predators while the other did not, and we hypothesized that we would see declines and potentially extinction of the population threatened by predation. Over the course of our study, we observed additional threats, such as human trampling and high lake levels, which led to significant erosion, sand burial, and storm damage to plants. We find high interannual variation in vital rates and population growth rates for both populations, which mask the overall effects of predation. We observed dramatic declines in plant survivorship and population growth rates in both sites in the years with high lake levels. We conclude that high lake levels, which are expected to become more frequent with climate change, pose a significant threat to all near-shore populations of C. pitcheri.

Predicting plant-pollinator interactions: concepts, methods, and challenges.

Plant-pollinator interactions are ecologically and economically important, and, as a result, their prediction is a crucial theoretical and applied goal for ecologists. Although various analytical methods are available, we still have a limited ability to predict plant-pollinator interactions. The predictive ability of different plant-pollinator interaction models depends on the specific definitions used to conceptualize and quantify species attributes (e.g., morphological traits), sampling effects (e.g., detection probabilities), and data resolution and availability. Progress in the study of plant-pollinator interactions requires conceptual and methodological advances concerning the mechanisms and species attributes governing interactions as well as improved modeling approaches to predict interactions. Current methods to predict plant-pollinator interactions present ample opportunities for improvement and spark new horizons for basic and applied research.

YOLO object detection models can locate and classify broad groups of flower-visiting arthropods in images.

Develoment of image recognition AI algorithms for flower-visiting arthropods has the potential to revolutionize the way we monitor pollinators. Ecologists need light-weight models that can be deployed in a field setting and can classify with high accuracy. We tested the performance of three deep learning light-weight models, YOLOv5nano, YOLOv5small, and YOLOv7tiny, at object recognition and classification in real time on eight groups of flower-visiting arthropods using open-source image data. These eight groups contained four orders of insects that are known to perform the majority of pollination services in Europe (Hymenoptera, Diptera, Coleoptera, Lepidoptera) as well as other arthropod groups that can be seen on flowers but are not typically considered pollinators (e.g., spiders-Araneae). All three models had high accuracy, ranging from 93 to 97%. Intersection over union (IoU) depended on the relative area of the bounding box, and the models performed best when a single arthropod comprised a large portion of the image and worst when multiple small arthropods were together in a single image. The model could accurately distinguish flies in the family Syrphidae from the Hymenoptera that they are known to mimic. These results reveal the capability of existing YOLO models to contribute to pollination monitoring.

Integrating public engagement to intensify pollination services through ecological restoration.

Globally, human activities impose threats to nature and the provision of ecosystem services, such as pollination. In this context, ecological restoration provides opportunities to create managed landscapes that maximize biodiversity conservation and sustainable agriculture, e.g., via provision of pollination services. Managing pollination services and restoration opportunities requires the engagement of distinct stakeholders embedded in diverse social institutions. Nevertheless, frameworks toward sustainable agriculture often overlook how stakeholders interact and access power in social arenas. We present a perspective integrating pollination services, ecological restoration, and public engagement for biodiversity conservation and agricultural production. We highlight the importance of a comprehensive assessment of pollination services, restoration opportunities identification, and a public engagement strategy anchored in institutional analysis of the social arenas involved in restoration efforts. Our perspective can therefore guide the implementation of practices from local to country scales to enhance biodiversity conservation and sustainable agriculture.

Global conservation prioritization for the Orchidaceae.

Quantitative assessments of endemism, evolutionary distinctiveness and extinction threat underpin global conservation prioritization for well-studied taxa, such as birds, mammals, and amphibians. However, such information is unavailable for most of the world's taxa. This is the case for the Orchidaceae, a hyperdiverse and cosmopolitan family with incomplete phylogenetic and threat information. To define conservation priorities, we present a framework based on phylogenetic and taxonomic measures of distinctiveness and rarity based on the number of regions and the area of occupancy. For 25,434 orchid species with distribution data (89.3% of the Orchidaceae), we identify the Neotropics as hotspots for richness, New Guinea as a hotspot for evolutionary distinctiveness, and several islands that contain many rare and distinct species. Orchids have a similar proportion of monotypic genera as other Angiosperms, however, more taxonomically distinct orchid species are found in a single region. We identify 278 species in need of immediate conservation actions and find that more than 70% of these do not currently have an IUCN conservation assessment and are not protected in ex-situ collections at Botanical Gardens. Our study highlights locations and orchid species in urgent need of conservation and demonstrates a framework that can be applied to other data-deficient taxa.

Demographic synthesis for global tree species conservation.

Conserving the tree species of the world requires syntheses on which tree species are most vulnerable to pressing threats, such as climate change, invasive pests and pathogens, or selective logging. Here, we review the population and forest dynamics models that, when parameterized with data from population studies, forest inventories, or tree rings, have been used for identifying life-history strategies of species and threat-related changes in population demography and dynamics. The available evidence suggests that slow-growing and/or long-lived species are the most vulnerable. However, a lack of comparative, multi-species studies still challenges more precise predictions of the vulnerability of tree species to threats. Improving data coverage for mortality and recruitment, and accounting for interactions among threats, would greatly advance vulnerability assessments for conservation prioritizations of trees worldwide.

Plant-pollinator network change across a century in the subarctic.

Animal-mediated pollination is a vital ecosystem service to crops and wild plants, and long-term stability of plant-pollinator interactions is therefore crucial for maintaining plant biodiversity and food security. However, it is unknown how the composition of pollinators and the structure of pollinator interactions have changed across longer time spans relevant to examining responses to human activities such as climate change. We resampled an historical dataset of plant-pollinator interactions across several orders of pollinating insects in a subarctic location in Finland that has already experienced substantial climate warming but little land use change. Our results reveal a dramatic turnover in pollinator species and rewiring of plant-pollinator interactions, with only 7% of the interactions shared across time points. The relative abundance of moth and hoverfly pollinators declined between time points, whereas muscoid flies, a group for which little is known regarding conservation status and responses to climate, became more common. Specialist pollinators disproportionately declined, leading to a decrease in network-level specialization, which could have harmful consequences for pollination services. Our results exemplify the changes in plant-pollinator networks that might be expected in other regions as climate change progresses.

Historical records of plant-insect interactions in subarctic Finland.

OBJECTIVES: Historical ecological records document the diversity and composition of communities decades or centuries ago. They can provide a valuable benchmark for comparisons with modern communities. Historical datasets on plant-animal interactions allow for modern comparisons that examine the stability of species and interaction networks over long periods of time and in response to anthropogenic change. Here we present a curated dataset of interactions between plants and insects in subarctic Finland, generated from digitizing a historical document from the late 19th century and updating the taxonomy using currently accepted nomenclature. DATA DESCRIPTION: The resulting dataset contains 654 records of plant-insect interactions observed during the years 1895-1900, and includes 498 unique interactions between 86 plant species and 173 insect taxa. Syrphidae, Apidae and Muscidae were the insect families involved in most interactions, and interactions were most observed with the plant species Angelica archangelica, Salix caprea, and Chaerophyllum prescottii. Interaction data are available as csv-file and provide a valuable resource on plant-insect interactions over 120 years ago in a high latitude ecosystem that is undergoing rapid climate change.

Effects of climate change and pollen supplementation on the reproductive success of two grassland plant species.

Climate change has the potential to alter plant reproductive success directly and indirectly through disruptions in animal pollination. Climate models project altered seasonal precipitation patterns, and thus, the effects of climate change on available resources and pollination services will depend on the season. Plants have evolved reproductive strategies to so they are not limited by either pollen or water availability in their reproductive success, and therefore, we expect that the disruption of climate change might cause plants to be more pollen limited in seasons that become wetter than they were historically. In this study, we conducted a pollen supplementation experiment within the Global Change Experiment Facility (GCEF) in Central Germany. The GCEF experimentally manipulates future climate based on a realistic scenario of climate change for the region (drier summers and wetter springs and falls) in a native grassland ecosystem. We quantified seed production of two perennial species Dianthus carthusianorum and Scabiosa ochroleuca in response to pollination treatments (control, supplement), climate treatments (ambient and future) and season (summer and fall). Dianthus carthusianorum produced more seeds in future climate conditions independent of the season, but only when given supplemental pollen. Both species showed an increased reproduction in summer compared with the fall. We did not find evidence for our specific expectation of higher pollen limitation in the future climate and fall season (i.e., no three-way interaction pollination × season × climate), which might be explained by the high-drought tolerance and generalized pollination of our focal plant species. We conclude that plant reproductive success has the potential to change with changing climates and that this change will depend on how pollinator services change in the future. We offer many suggestions for future studies that are necessary to understand the context dependence and underlying mechanisms of plant reproductive responses to climate.

Effects of different types of low-intensity management on plant-pollinator interactions in Estonian grasslands.

In the face of global pollinator decline, extensively managed grasslands play an important role in supporting stable pollinator communities. However, different types of extensive management may promote particular plant species and thus particular functional traits. As the functional traits of flowering plant species (e.g., flower size and shape) in a habitat help determine the identity and frequency of pollinator visitors, they can also influence the structures of plant-pollinator interaction networks (i.e., pollination networks). The aim of this study was to examine how the type of low-intensity traditional management influences plant and pollinator composition, the structure of plant-pollinator interactions, and their mediation by floral and insect functional traits. Specifically, we compared mown wooded meadows to grazed alvar pastures in western Estonia. We found that both management types fostered equal diversity of plants and pollinators, and overlapping, though still distinct, plant and pollinator compositions. Wooded meadow pollination networks had significantly higher connectance and specialization, while alvar pasture networks achieved higher interaction diversity at a standardized sampling of interactions. Pollinators with small body sizes and short proboscis lengths were more specialized in their preference for particular plant species and the specialization of individual pollinators was higher in alvar pastures than in wooded meadows. All in all, the two management types promoted diverse plant and pollinator communities, which enabled the development of equally even and nested pollination networks. The same generalist plant and pollinator species were important for the pollination networks of both wooded meadows and alvar pastures; however, they were complemented by management-specific species, which accounted for differences in network structure. Therefore, the implementation of both management types in the same landscape helps to maintain high species and interaction diversity.

Oilseed Rape Shares Abundant and Generalized Pollinators with Its Co-Flowering Plant Species.

Mass-flowering crops, such as Oilseed Rape (OSR), provide resources for pollinators and benefit from pollination services. Studies that observe the community of interactions between plants and pollinators are critical to understanding the resource needs of pollinators. We observed pollinators on OSR and wild plants in adjacent semi-natural areas in Sachsen-Anhalt, Germany to quantify (1) the co-flowering plants that share pollinators with OSR, (2) the identity and functional traits of plants and pollinators in the network module of OSR, and (3) the identity of the plants and pollinators that act as network connectors and hubs. We found that four common plants share a high percentage of their pollinators with OSR. OSR and these plants all attract abundant pollinators in the community, and the patterns of sharing were not more than would be expected by chance sampling. OSR acts as a module hub, and primarily influences the other plants in its module that have similar functional traits. However, the plants that most influence the pollination of OSR have different functional traits and are part of different modules. Our study demonstrates that supporting the pollination of OSR requires the presence of semi-natural areas with plants that can support a high abundances of generalist pollinators.

Widespread vulnerability of flowering plant seed production to pollinator declines.

Despite evidence of pollinator declines from many regions across the globe, the threat this poses to plant populations is not clear because plants can often produce seeds without animal pollinators. Here, we quantify pollinator contribution to seed production by comparing fertility in the presence versus the absence of pollinators for a global dataset of 1174 plant species. We estimate that, without pollinators, a third of flowering plant species would produce no seeds and half would suffer an 80% or more reduction in fertility. Pollinator contribution to plant reproduction is higher in plants with tree growth form, multiple reproductive episodes, more specialized pollination systems, and tropical distributions, making these groups especially vulnerable to reduced service from pollinators. These results suggest that, without mitigating efforts, pollinator declines have the potential to reduce reproduction for most plant species, increasing the risk of population declines.

Areas Requiring Restoration Efforts are a Complementary Opportunity to Support the Demand for Pollination Services in Brazil.

Crop pollination is one of Nature's Contributions to People (NCP) that reconciles biodiversity conservation and agricultural production. NCP benefits vary across space, including among distinct political-administrative levels within nations. Moreover, initiatives to restore ecosystems may enhance NCP provision, such as crop pollination delivered by native pollinators. We mapped crop pollination demand (PD), diversity of pollinator-dependent crops, and vegetation deficit (VD) (vis-a-vis Brazilian legal requirements) across all 5570 municipalities in Brazil. Pollinator-dependent crops represented ∼55% of the annual monetary value of agricultural production and ∼15% of the annual crop production. Municipalities with greater crop PD (i.e., higher degree of pollinator dependence of crop production) also had greater VD, associated with large properties and monocultures. In contrast, municipalities with a greater diversity of pollinator-dependent crops and predominantly small properties presented a smaller VD. Our results support that ecological restoration prompted by legal requirements offers great potential to promote crop productivity in larger properties. Moreover, conservation of vegetation remnants could support food security in small properties. We provided the first steps to identify spatial patterns linking biodiversity conservation and pollination service. Using Brazilian legal requirements as an example, we show that land-use management policies may be successfully used to ensure agricultural sustainability and crop production.

Fire alters diversity, composition, and structure of dry tropical forests in the Eastern Ghats.

Fire is known to have dramatic consequences on forest ecosystems around the world and on the livelihoods of forest-dependent people. While the Eastern Ghats of India have high abundances of fire-prone dry tropical forests, little is known about how fire influences the diversity, composition, and structure of these communities. Our study aimed to fill this knowledge gap by examining the effects of the presence and the absence of recent fire on tropical dry forest communities within the Kadiri watershed, Eastern Ghats. We sampled plots with and without evidence of recent fire in the Eswaramala Reserve Forest in 2008 and 2018. Our results indicate that even though stem density increases in the recently burned areas, species richness is lower because communities become dominated by a few species with fire resistance and tolerance traits, such as thick bark and clonal sprouting. Further, in the presence of fire, the size structure of these fire-tolerant species shifts toward smaller-sized, resprouting individuals. Our results demonstrate that conservation actions are needed to prevent further degradation of forests in this region and the ecosystem services they provide.

Responses of plant diversity to precipitation change are strongest at local spatial scales and in drylands.

Mitigating and adapting to climate change requires an understanding of the magnitude and nature by which climate change will influence the diversity of plants across the world's ecosystems. Experiments can causally link precipitation change to plant diversity change, however, these experiments vary in their methods and in the diversity metrics reported, making synthesis elusive. Here, we explicitly account for a number of potentially confounding variables, including spatial grain, treatment magnitude and direction and background climatic conditions, to synthesize data across 72 precipitation manipulation experiments. We find that the effects of treatments with higher magnitude of precipitation manipulation on plant diversity are strongest at the smallest spatial scale, and in drier environments. Our synthesis emphasizes that quantifying differential responses of ecosystems requires explicit consideration of spatial grain and the magnitude of experimental manipulation. Given that diversity provides essential ecosystem services, especially in dry and semi-dry areas, our finding that these dry ecosystems are particular sensitive to projected changes in precipitation has important implications for their conservation and management.

Demographic analysis of an Israeli Carpobrotus population.

Carpobrotus species are harmful invaders to coastal areas throughout the world, particularly in Mediterranean habitats. Demographic models are ideally suited to identify and understand population processes and stages in the life cycle of the species that could be most effectively targeted with management. However, parameterizing these models has been limited by the difficulty in accessing the cliff-side locations where its populations are typically found, as well as accurately measuring the growth and spread of individuals, which form large, dense mats. This study uses small unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) to collect demographic data and parameterize an Integral Projection Model of an Israeli Carpobrotus population. We validated our data set with ground targets of known size. Through the analysis of asymptotic growth rates and population sensitivities and elasticities, we demonstrate that the population at the study site is demographically stable, and that reducing the survival and growth of the largest individuals would have the greatest effect on reducing overall population growth rate. Our results provide a first evaluation of the demography of Carpobrotus, a species of conservation and economic concern, and provide the first structured population model of a representative of the Aizoaceae family, thus contributing to our global knowledge on plant population dynamics. In addition, we demonstrate the advantages of using drones for collecting demographic data in understudied habitats such as coastal ecosystems.

The myriad of complex demographic responses of terrestrial mammals to climate change and gaps of knowledge: A global analysis.

Approximately 25% of mammals are currently threatened with extinction, a risk that is amplified under climate change. Species persistence under climate change is determined by the combined effects of climatic factors on multiple demographic rates (survival, development and reproduction), and hence, population dynamics. Thus, to quantify which species and regions on Earth are most vulnerable to climate-driven extinction, a global understanding of how different demographic rates respond to climate is urgently needed. Here, we perform a systematic review of literature on demographic responses to climate, focusing on terrestrial mammals, for which extensive demographic data are available. To assess the full spectrum of responses, we synthesize information from studies that quantitatively link climate to multiple demographic rates. We find only 106 such studies, corresponding to 87 mammal species. These 87 species constitute <1% of all terrestrial mammals. Our synthesis reveals a strong mismatch between the locations of demographic studies and the regions and taxa currently recognized as most vulnerable to climate change. Surprisingly, for most mammals and regions sensitive to climate change, holistic demographic responses to climate remain unknown. At the same time, we reveal that filling this knowledge gap is critical as the effects of climate change will operate via complex demographic mechanisms: a vast majority of mammal populations display projected increases in some demographic rates but declines in others, often depending on the specific environmental context, complicating simple projections of population fates. Assessments of population viability under climate change are in critical need to gather data that account for multiple demographic responses, and coordinated actions to assess demography holistically should be prioritized for mammals and other taxa.

Herbaceous perennial plants with short generation time have stronger responses to climate anomalies than those with longer generation time.

There is an urgent need to synthesize the state of our knowledge on plant responses to climate. The availability of open-access data provide opportunities to examine quantitative generalizations regarding which biomes and species are most responsive to climate drivers. Here, we synthesize time series of structured population models from 162 populations of 62 plants, mostly herbaceous species from temperate biomes, to link plant population growth rates (λ) to precipitation and temperature drivers. We expect: (1) more pronounced demographic responses to precipitation than temperature, especially in arid biomes; and (2) a higher climate sensitivity in short-lived rather than long-lived species. We find that precipitation anomalies have a nearly three-fold larger effect on λ than temperature. Species with shorter generation time have much stronger absolute responses to climate anomalies. We conclude that key species-level traits can predict plant population responses to climate, and discuss the relevance of this generalization for conservation planning.

Lagged and dormant season climate better predict plant vital rates than climate during the growing season.

Understanding the effects of climate on the vital rates (e.g., survival, development, reproduction) and dynamics of natural populations is a long-standing quest in ecology, with ever-increasing relevance in the face of climate change. However, linking climate drivers to demographic processes requires identifying the appropriate time windows during which climate influences vital rates. Researchers often do not have access to the long-term data required to test a large number of windows, and are thus forced to make a priori choices. In this study, we first synthesize the literature to assess current a priori choices employed in studies performed on 104 plant species that link climate drivers with demographic responses. Second, we use a sliding-window approach to investigate which combination of climate drivers and temporal window have the best predictive ability for vital rates of four perennial plant species that each have over a decade of demographic data (Helianthella quinquenervis, Frasera speciosa, Cylindriopuntia imbricata, and Cryptantha flava). Our literature review shows that most studies consider time windows in only the year preceding the measurement of the vital rate(s) of interest, and focus on annual or growing season temporal scales. In contrast, our sliding-window analysis shows that in only four out of 13 vital rates the selected climate drivers have time windows that align with, or are similar to, the growing season. For many vital rates, the best window lagged more than 1 year and up to 4 years before the measurement of the vital rate. Our results demonstrate that for the vital rates of these four species, climate drivers that are lagged or outside of the growing season are the norm. Our study suggests that considering climatic predictors that fall outside of the most recent growing season will improve our understanding of how climate affects population dynamics.

Intraspecific trait variation and reversals of trait strategies across key climate gradients in native Hawaiian plants and non-native invaders.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Displacement of native plant species by non-native invaders may result from differences in their carbon economy, yet little is known regarding how variation in leaf traits influences native-invader dynamics across climate gradients. In Hawaii, one of the most heavily invaded biodiversity hotspots in the world, strong spatial variation in climate results from the complex topography, which underlies variation in traits that probably drives shifts in species interactions. METHODS: Using one of the most comprehensive trait data sets for Hawaii to date (91 species and four islands), we determined the extent and sources of variation (climate, species and species origin) in leaf traits, and used mixed models to examine differences between natives and non-native invasives. KEY RESULTS: We detected significant differences in trait means, such that invasives were more resource acquisitive than natives over most of the climate gradients. However, we also detected trait convergence and a rank reversal (natives more resource acquisitive than invasives) in a sub-set of conditions. There was significant intraspecific trait variation (ITV) in leaf traits of natives and invasives, although invasives expressed significantly greater ITV than natives in water loss and photosynthesis. Species accounted for more trait variation than did climate for invasives, while the reverse was true for natives. Incorporating this climate-driven trait variation significantly improved the fit of models that compared natives and invasives. Lastly, in invasives, ITV was most strongly explained by spatial heterogeneity in moisture, whereas solar energy explains more ITV in natives. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that trait expression and ITV vary significantly between natives and invasives, and that this is mediated by climate. These findings suggest that although natives and invasives are functionally similar at the regional scale, invader success at local scales is contingent on climate.