CRP Monitoring in Early Hospitalization: Implications for Predicting Outcomes in Patients with COVID-19.

Elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) levels have been associated with poorer COVID-19 outcomes. While baseline CRP levels are higher in women, obese individuals, and older adults, the relationship between CRP, sex, body mass index (BMI), age, and COVID-19 outcomes remains unknown. To investigate, we performed a retrospective analysis on 824 adult patients with COVID-19 admitted during the first pandemic wave, of whom 183 (22.2%) died. The maximum CRP value over the first five hospitalization days better predicted hospitalization outcome than the CRP level at admission, as a maximum CRP > 10 mg/dL independently quadrupled the risk of death (p < 0.001). Males (p < 0.001) and patients with a higher BMI (p = 0.001) had higher maximum CRP values, yet CRP levels did not impact their hospitalization outcome. While CRP levels did not statistically mediate any relation between sex, age, or BMI with clinical outcomes, age impacted the association between BMI and the risk of death. For patients 60 or over, a BMI < 25 kg/m2 increased the risk of death (p = 0.017), whereas the reverse was true for patients <60 (p = 0.030). Further impact of age on the association between BMI, CRP, and the risk of death could not be assessed due to a lack of statistical power but should be further investigated.

Predicting COVID-19 prognosis in hospitalized patients based on early status.

IMPORTANCE: COVID-19 remains the fourth leading cause of death in the United States. Predicting COVID-19 patient prognosis is essential to help efficiently allocate resources, including ventilators and intensive care unit beds, particularly when hospital systems are strained. Our PLABAC and PRABLE models are unique because they accurately assess a COVID-19 patient's risk of death from only age and five commonly ordered laboratory tests. This simple design is important because it allows these models to be used by clinicians to rapidly assess a patient's risk of decompensation and serve as a real-time aid when discussing difficult, life-altering decisions for patients. Our models have also shown generalizability to external populations across the United States. In short, these models are practical, efficient tools to assess and communicate COVID-19 prognosis.

Trajectories of psychological distress among individuals exposed to the 9/11 World Trade Center disaster.

BACKGROUND: Individuals present in lower Manhattan during the 9/11 World Trade Center (WTC) disaster suffered from significant physical and psychological trauma. Studies of longitudinal psychological distress among those exposed to trauma have been limited to relatively short durations of follow-up among smaller samples. METHODS: The current study longitudinally assessed heterogeneity in trajectories of psychological distress among WTC Health Registry enrollees - a prospective cohort health study of responders, students, employees, passersby, and residents in the affected area (N = 30 839) - throughout a 15-year period following the WTC disaster. Rescue/recovery status and exposure to traumatic events of 9/11, as well as sociodemographic factors and health status, were assessed as risk factors for trajectories of psychological distress. RESULTS: Five psychological distress trajectory groups were found: none-stable, low-stable, moderate-increasing, moderate-decreasing, and high-stable. Of the study sample, 78.2% were classified as belonging to the none-stable or low-stable groups. Female sex, being younger at the time of 9/11, lower education and income were associated with a higher probability of being in a greater distress trajectory group relative to the none-stable group. Greater exposure to traumatic events of 9/11 was associated with a higher probability of a greater distress trajectory, and community members (passerby, residents, and employees) were more likely to be in greater distress trajectory groups - especially in the moderate-increasing [odds ratios (OR) 2.31 (1.97-2.72)] and high-stable groups [OR 2.37 (1.81-3.09)] - compared to the none-stable group. CONCLUSIONS: The current study illustrated the heterogeneity in psychological distress trajectories following the 9/11 WTC disaster, and identified potential avenues for intervention in future disasters.

A Data Science Approach to Estimating the Frequency of Driving Cessation Associated Suicide in the US: Evidence From the National Violent Death Reporting System.

Driving cessation is a common transition experienced by aging adults that confers both a symbolic and literal loss of independence due to the central role of automobiles for mobility in the US. Prior research has shown that driving cessation has negative implications for mental health, social participation, and access to healthcare. Given these sequelae of driving cessation and prior work showing that late-life transitions related to independence (e.g., transitioning into residential care) are associated with suicide, we sought to estimate the frequency of driving cessation associated suicide. Data include suicide (n = 59,080) and undetermined (n = 6,862) deaths aged ≥55 from the National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS, 2003-2017). Each case in the NVDRS has both quantitative data (e.g., demographic characteristics) and qualitative text narratives, derived from coroner/medical examiner reports, which describe the most salient circumstances and features of each death. To identify cases associated with driving cessation, we employed a supervised random forest algorithm to develop a Natural Language Processing (NLP) classifier. Identified driving cessation associated cases were then categorized and characterized using descriptive statistics and qualitative content analysis. From 2003 to 2017, there were an estimated 305 cases of suicide/undetermined deaths associated with driving cessation in the NVDRS, representing 0.04% of all cases. Cases associated with driving cessation were older, more likely to be male, more likely to have a physical health problem, more likely to have experienced a recent crisis, and more likely to have lived in a rural county than other decedents. Qualitative analysis identified functional impairment, alcohol-related driving limitations, loss of employment, and recent car accidents as common themes among cases associated with driving cessation. This analysis illustrates the utility of NLP in identifying novel correlates of suicide in later life. Although driving cessation associated suicide is a rare outcome, further research is warranted on understanding the conditions under which driving cessation is associated with suicidal behavior, and how to support the well-being of aging adults during these types of major life transitions.

Not discussed: Inequalities in narrative text data for suicide deaths in the National Violent Death Reporting System.

BACKGROUND: The rate of suicide in the US has increased substantially in the past two decades, and new insights are needed to support prevention efforts. The National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS), the nation's most comprehensive registry of suicide mortality, has qualitative text narratives that describe salient circumstances of these deaths. These texts have great potential for providing novel insights about suicide risk but may be subject to information bias. OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between decedent characteristics and the presence and length of NVDRS text narratives (separately for coroner/medical examiner (C/ME) and law enforcement (LE) reports) among 233,108 suicide and undetermined deaths from 2003-2017. METHODS: Generalized estimating equations (GEE) logistic and quasi-Poisson modeling was used to examine variation in the narratives (proportion of missing texts and character length of the non-missing texts, respectively) as a function of decedent age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, marital status, military history, and homeless status. Models adjusted for site, year, location of death, and autopsy status. RESULTS: The frequency of missing narratives was higher for LE vs. C/ME texts (19.8% vs. 5.2%). Decedent characteristics were not consistently associated with missing text across the two types of narratives (i.e., Black decedents were more likely to be missing the LE narrative but less likely to be missing the C/ME narrative relative to non-Hispanic whites). Conditional on having a narrative, C/ME were significantly longer than LE (822.44 vs. 780.68 characters). Decedents who were older, male, had less education and some racial/ethnic minority groups had shorter narratives (both C/ME and LE) than younger, female, more educated, and non-Hispanic white decedents. CONCLUSION: Decedent characteristics are significantly related to the presence and length of narrative texts for suicide and undetermined deaths in the NVDRS. Findings can inform future research using these data to identify novel determinants of suicide mortality.

Implicit and Explicit Beliefs About the Effectiveness of Psychotherapy vs. Medication: A Large-Scale Examination and Replication.

ABSTRACT: One exploratory study (N = 10,335) and one preregistered replication and extension study (N = 6648) evaluated implicit and explicit beliefs in the effectiveness of psychotherapy versus medication, and whether these beliefs vary as a function of demographics, mental health difficulties, and treatment experiences. Data were collected from a sample of visitors to a mental health research website who completed the Therapy vs. Medication Effectiveness Implicit Association Test (IAT). The IAT demonstrated evidence of convergent validity with two measures of explicit therapy versus medication effectiveness beliefs. Across both studies, individuals held greater implicit and explicit beliefs that therapy is more effective than medication, and individuals who were Black (versus all other races, excluding "other/unknown") and who had experienced past (versus current) mental health difficulties had stronger implicit and explicit beliefs in the effectiveness of therapy versus medication. More work is needed to understand how these differences in beliefs arise, as well as to evaluate the clinical utility of this novel measure.

State Variation in Long-Term Care Availability, Regulation, and Cost and Suicide Mortality Among Older Adults in the United States: 2010-2015.

OBJECTIVES: Residential long-term care (LTC) facilities may be key settings for the prevention of suicide among older adults; however, little is known about the relationship between statewide policies determining characteristics of LTC facilities and suicide mortality. The primary goal of this study was to evaluate the association between state policies regarding availability, regulation, and cost of LTC and suicide mortality among adults aged 55 and older in the United States over a 5-year period. DESIGN: Longitudinal ecological study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: LTC residents from 16 states reporting mortality data to the National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS) from 2010 to 2015. METHODS: We linked suicide data from the NVDRS and data sources on LTC services and regulations for 16 states. We applied a natural language-processing algorithm to identify suicide deaths related to LTC. We used fixed effect regression models to assess whether state variation in LTC characteristics is related to variation in the rate of suicide (both overall and related to LTC) among older adults. RESULTS: There were 25,040 suicides among those aged 55 and older reported to the NVDRS during the study period; 382 suicides were determined to be associated with LTC in some manner. After adjusting for state-level characteristics, greater average nursing home capacity was significantly associated with increase in the cumulative incidence of suicide related to LTC (ß = 0.087, SE = 0.026, P < .01), but not overall suicide incidence. Neither cost nor regulation measures were significantly associated with state-level LTC-related suicide incidence. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: State-level variations in LTC facility capacity are related to variation in LTC-related suicide incidence among older adults. Given the challenges of preventing suicide among older adults through facility- or individual-level interventions, policies governing the features and provision of LTC services may therefore serve as a means for public health suicide prevention.

Suicide Among Older Adults Living in or Transitioning to Residential Long-term Care, 2003 to 2015.

Importance: Almost 25% of Medicare beneficiaries live in residential long-term care (LTC) (eg, independent or assisted living facility or nursing home). There are few reliable statistics on completed suicide in LTC, in part because of data limitations. Objectives: To estimate the number of suicides associated with residential LTC (ie, among persons in a facility, transitioning into or out of a facility, or otherwise associated with LTC) among adults 55 and older and, secondarily, to identify whether machine learning tools could improve the quality of suicide surveillance data. Design, Setting, and Participants: Cross-sectional epidemiologic study (conducted in 2018) of restricted-access data from the National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS) (2003-2015) using restricted-access case narratives from suicides and undetermined deaths among adults 55 years and older in 27 states. Participants were all suicides and undetermined deaths (N = 47 759) among persons 55 years and older. Exposure: Long-term care cited in the coroner/medical examiner case narrative, whether as a reason for self-harm or the injury location, identified using machine learning natural language processing (NLP) algorithms plus manual review of texts. Main Outcomes and Measures: Number and characteristics (eg, demographics, health history, and means of injury) of suicides associated with LTC. The κ statistic was used to estimate the reliability of the existing NVDRS injury location codes relative to cases identified by the algorithm. Results: Among 47 759 persons 55 years and older (median age, 64 years; 77.6% male; 90.0% non-Hispanic white), this study identified 1037 suicide deaths associated with LTC, including 428 among older adults living in LTC, 449 among older adults transitioning to LTC, and 160 otherwise associated with LTC. In contrast, there were only 263 cases coded with the existing NVDRS location code "supervised residential facility," which had poor agreement with cases that the algorithm identified as occurring in LTC (κ statistic, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.26-0.35). Conclusions and Relevance: Over a 13-year period, approximately 2.2% of suicides among adults 55 years and older were associated with LTC in some manner. Clinicians, administrators, and policy makers should consider ways to promote the mental health and well-being of older adults experiencing functioning limitations and their families. Natural language processing may be a useful way to improve abstraction of variables in the NVDRS.

Personal Control Over Decisions to Participate in Research by Persons With Histories of Both Substance Use Disorders and Criminal Justice Supervision.

Individuals must feel free to exert personal control over decisions regarding research participation. We present an examination of participants' perceived personal control over, as well as reported pressures and threats from others, influencing their decision to join a study assessing the effectiveness of extended-release naltrexone in preventing opioid dependence relapse. Most participants endorsed a strong sense of control over the decision; few reported pressures or threats. Although few in number, participants' brief narrative descriptions of the pressures and threats are illuminating and provide context for their perceptions of personal control. Based on this work, we propose a useful set of tools to help ascertain participants' sense of personal control in joining research.

Assessing informed consent in an opioid relapse prevention study with adults under current or recent criminal justice supervision.

Concerns persist that individuals with substance use disorders who are under community criminal justice supervision experience circumstances that might compromise their provision of valid, informed consent for research participation. These concerns include the possibilities that desire to obtain access to treatment might lead individuals to ignore important information about research participation, including information about risks, or that cognitive impairment associated with substance use might interfere with attending to important information. We report results from a consent quiz (CQ) administered in a multisite randomized clinical trial of long-acting naltrexone to prevent relapse to opioid use disorder among adults under community criminal justice supervision-a treatment option difficult to access by this population of individuals. Participants were required to answer all 11 items correctly before randomization. On average, participants answered 9.8 items correctly (89%) at baseline first attempt (n=306). At week 21 (n=212), participants scored 87% (9.5 items correct) without review. Performance was equivalent to, or better than, published results from other populations on a basic consent quiz instrument across multiple content domains. The consent quiz is an efficient method to screen for adequate knowledge of consent information as part of the informed consent process. Clinical researchers who are concerned about these issues should consider using a consent quiz with corrected feedback to enhance the informed consent process. Overall, while primarily useful as an educational tool, employing a CQ as part of the gateway to participation in research may be particularly important as the field continues to advance and tests novel experimental treatments with significant risks and uncertain potential for benefit.