Usefulness of the 2-year iodine-123 metaiodobenzylguanidine-based risk model for post-discharge risk stratification of patients with acute decompensated heart failure.

PURPOSE: A four-parameter risk model that included cardiac iodine-123 metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) imaging and readily available clinical parameters was recently developed for prediction of 2-year cardiac mortality risk in patients with chronic heart failure. We sought to validate the ability of this risk model to predict post-discharge clinical outcomes in patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) and to compare its prognostic value with that of the Acute Decompensated Heart Failure National Registry (ADHERE) and Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure (GWTG-HF) risk scores. METHODS: We studied 407 consecutive patients who were admitted for ADHF and survived to discharge, with definitive 2-year outcomes (death or survival). Cardiac MIBG imaging was performed just before discharge. The 2-year cardiac mortality risk was calculated using four parameters, namely age, left ventricular ejection fraction, New York Heart Association functional class, and cardiac MIBG heart-to-mediastinum ratio on delayed images. Patients were stratified into three groups based on the 2-year cardiac mortality risk: low- (< 4%), intermediate- (4-12%), and high-risk (> 12%) groups. The ADHERE and GWTG-HF risk scores were also calculated. RESULTS: There was a significant difference in the incidence of cardiac death among the three groups stratified using the 2-year cardiac mortality risk model (p < 0.0001). The 2-year cardiac mortality risk model had a higher C-statistic (0.732) for the prediction of cardiac mortality than the ADHERE and GWTG-HF risk scores. CONCLUSION: The 2-year MIBG-based cardiac mortality risk model is useful for predicting post-discharge clinical outcomes in patients with ADHF. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: UMIN000015246, 25 September 2014.

Prognostic value of impaired hepato-renal function and liver fibrosis in patients admitted for acute heart failure.

AIMS: Cardiohepatic interactions have been a focus of attention in heart failure (HF). The model for end-stage liver disease excluding international normalized ratio (MELD-XI) score has been shown to be useful for predicting poor outcomes in patients with acute decompensated HF (ADHF). Furthermore, the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, a simple marker to assess liver fibrosis, predicts adverse prognoses in patients with HF as well. However, there is little information available on the prognostic significance of the combination of the MELD-XI score and FIB-4 index in patients with ADHF and its association with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) subgroup. METHODS AND RESULTS: We prospectively studied 466 consecutive patients who were admitted for ADHF [HF with reduced LVEF (LVEF < 40%): n = 164, HF with mid-range LVEF (40% ≤ LVEF < 50%): n = 104, and HF with preserved LVEF (LVEF ≥ 50%): n = 198]. We calculated the MELD-XI score and FIB-4 indices at discharge. The primary endpoint was all-cause death (ACD). During the mean follow-up period of 2.8 years, 143 patients had ACD. In the multivariate Cox analysis, the MELD-XI score and FIB-4 index were independently associated with ACD. Patients were stratified into the following three groups according to the median value of MELD-XI score (=11) and FIB-4 index (=2.13): Group 1 had both a low MELD-XI score and a low FIB-4 index; Group 2 had either a high MELD-XI score (MELD-XI score ≥11) or a high FIB-4 index (FIB-4 index ≥2.13); and Group 3 had both a high MELD-XI score and a high FIB-4 index. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that Group 2 and Group 3 had a significantly greater risk of ACD than Group 1 [Group 2 vs. Group 1: adjusted hazard ratio, 2.48 (95% confidence interval: 1.75-3.53), P < 0.0001; Group 3 vs. Group 1: adjusted hazard ratio, 7.03 (95% confidence interval: 3.95-13.7), P < 0.0001]. In addition, the patients with both a higher MELD-XI score and FIB-4 index showed a significantly higher risk of ACD also in the patients with HF with reduced LVEF, HF with mid-range LVEF, and HF with preserved LVEF (all P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The combination of MELD-XI score and FIB-4 index may be useful for stratifying patients at risk for ACD in patients with ADHF, irrespective of LVEF.