Brown bear attacks on humans: a worldwide perspective.

The increasing trend of large carnivore attacks on humans not only raises human safety concerns but may also undermine large carnivore conservation efforts. Although rare, attacks by brown bears Ursus arctos are also on the rise and, although several studies have addressed this issue at local scales, information is lacking on a worldwide scale. Here, we investigated brown bear attacks (n = 664) on humans between 2000 and 2015 across most of the range inhabited by the species: North America (n = 183), Europe (n = 291), and East (n = 190). When the attacks occurred, half of the people were engaged in leisure activities and the main scenario was an encounter with a female with cubs. Attacks have increased significantly over time and were more frequent at high bear and low human population densities. There was no significant difference in the number of attacks between continents or between countries with different hunting practices. Understanding global patterns of bear attacks can help reduce dangerous encounters and, consequently, is crucial for informing wildlife managers and the public about appropriate measures to reduce this kind of conflicts in bear country.

Balancing selection and heterozygote advantage in major histocompatibility complex loci of the bottlenecked Finnish wolf population.

Maintaining effective immune response is an essential factor in the survival of small populations. One of the most important immune gene regions is the highly polymorphic major histocompatibility complex (MHC). We investigated how a population bottleneck and recovery have influenced the diversity and selection in three MHC class II loci, DLA-DRB1, DLA-DQA1 and DLA-DQB1, in the Finnish wolf population. We studied the larger Russian Karelian wolf population for comparison and used 17 microsatellite markers as reference loci. The Finnish and Karelian wolf populations did not differ substantially in their MHC diversities (GST″ = 0.047, P = 0.377), but differed in neutral microsatellite diversities (GST″ = 0.148, P = 0.008). MHC allele frequency distributions in the Finnish population were more even than expected under neutrality, implying balancing selection. In addition, an excess of nonsynonymous compared to synonymous polymorphisms indicated historical balancing selection. We also studied association between helminth (Trichinella spp. and Echinococcus canadensis) prevalence and MHC diversity at allele and SNP level. MHC-heterozygous wolves were less often infected by Trichinella spp. and carriers of specific MHC alleles, SNP haplotypes and SNP alleles had less helminth infections. The associated SNP haplotypes and alleles were shared by different MHC alleles, which emphasizes the necessity of single-nucleotide-level association studies also in MHC. Here, we show that strong balancing selection has had similar effect on MHC diversities in the Finnish and Russian Karelian wolf populations despite significant genetic differentiation at neutral markers and small population size in the Finnish population.

Rise and fall of a wolf population: genetic diversity and structure during recovery, rapid expansion and drastic decline.

The grey wolves (Canis lupus) of Finland have had a varied history, with a period of rapid population expansion after the mid-1990s followed by a decline with a current census size of about 140 wolves. Here, we investigate the impact of unstable population size and connectivity on genetic diversity and structure in a long-term genetic study of 298 Finnish wolves born in 1995-2009 and genotyped for 17 microsatellite loci. During the initial recovery and prior to population expansion, genetic diversity was high (1995-1997: LD-N(e)  = 67.2; H(o)  = 0.749; H(e)  = 0.709) despite a small census size and low number of breeders (N(c)  < 100; N(b)  < 10) likely reflecting the status of the Russian source population. Surprisingly, observed heterozygosity decreased significantly during the study period (t = -2.643, P = 0.021) despite population expansion, likely a result of an increase in inbreeding (F(IS)  = 0.108 in 2007-2009) owing to a low degree of connectivity with adjacent Russian wolf population (m = 0.016-0.090; F(ST)  = 0.086, P < 0.001) and population crash after 2006. However, population growth had a temporary positive impact on N(e) and number of family lines. This study shows that even strong population growth alone might not be adequate to retain genetic diversity, especially when accompanied with low amount of subsequent gene flow and population decline.

A forensic DNA profiling system for Northern European brown bears (Ursus arctos).

A set of 13 dinucleotide STR loci (G1A, G10B, G1D, G10L, MU05, MU09, MU10, MU15, MU23, MU26, MU50, MU51, MU59) were selected as candidate markers for a DNA forensic profiling system for Northern European brown bear (Ursus arctos). We present results from validation of the markers with respect to their sensitivity, species specificity and performance (precision, heterozygote balance and stutter ratios). All STRs were amplified with 0.6ng template input, and there were no false bear genotypes in the cross-species amplification tests. The validation experiments showed that stutter ratios and heterozygote balance was more pronounced than in the tetranucleotide loci used in human forensics. The elevated ratios of stutter and heterozygote balance at the loci validated indicate that these dinucleotide STRs are not well suited for interpretation of individual genotypes in mixtures. Based on the results from the experimental validations we discuss the challenges related to genotyping dinucleotide STRs in single source samples. Sequence studies of common alleles showed that, in general, the size variation of alleles corresponded with the variation in number of repeats. The samples characterized by sequence analysis may serve as standard DNA samples for inter laboratory calibration. A total of 479 individuals from eight Northern European brown bear populations were analyzed in the 13 candidate STRs. Locus MU26 was excluded as a putative forensic marker after revealing large deviations from expected heterozygosity likely to be caused by null-alleles at this locus. The remaining STRs did not reveal significant deviations from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium expectations except for loci G10B and MU10 that showed significant deviations in one population each, respectively. There were 9 pairwise locus comparisons that showed significant deviation from linkage equilibrium in one or two out of the eight populations. Substantial genetic differentiation was detected in some of the pairwise population comparisons and the average estimate of population substructure (F(ST)) was 0.09. The average estimate of inbreeding (F(IS)) was 0.005. Accounting for population substructure and inbreeding the total average probability of identity in each of the eight populations was lower than 1.1×10(-9) and the total average probability of sibling identity was lower than 1.3×10(-4). The magnitude of these measurements indicates that if applying these twelve STRs in a DNA profiling system this would provide individual specific evidence.

Genetic structure in large, continuous mammal populations: the example of brown bears in northwestern Eurasia.

Knowledge of population structure and genetic diversity and the spatio-temporal demographic processes affecting populations is crucial for effective wildlife preservation, yet these factors are still poorly understood for organisms with large continuous ranges. Available population genetic data reveal that widespread mammals have for the most part only been carefully studied at the local population scale, which is insufficient for understanding population processes at larger scales. Here, we provide data on population structure, genetic diversity and gene flow in a brown bear population inhabiting the large territory of northwestern Eurasia. Analysis of 17 microsatellite loci indicated significant population substructure, consisting of four genetic groups. While three genetic clusters were confined to small geographical areas-located in Estonia, southern Finland and Leningrad oblast, Russia-the fourth cluster spanned a very large area broadly falling between northern Finland and the Arkhangelsk and Kirov oblasts of Russia. Thus, the data indicate a complex pattern where a fraction of the population exhibits large-scale gene flow that is unparalleled by other wild mammals studied to date, while the remainder of the population appears to have been structured by a combination of demographic history and landscape barriers. These results based on nuclear data are generally in good agreement with evidence previously derived using mitochondrial markers, and taken together, these markers provide complementary information about female-specific and population-level processes. Moreover, this study conveys information about spatial processes occurring over multiple generations that cannot be readily gained using other approaches, e.g. telemetry.

Genetic diversity, population structure, effective population size and demographic history of the Finnish wolf population.

The Finnish wolf population (Canis lupus) was sampled during three different periods (1996-1998, 1999-2001 and 2002-2004), and 118 individuals were genotyped with 10 microsatellite markers. Large genetic variation was found in the population despite a recent demographic bottleneck. No spatial population subdivision was found even though a significant negative relationship between genetic relatedness and geographic distance suggested isolation by distance. Very few individuals did not belong to the local wolf population as determined by assignment analyses, suggesting a low level of immigration in the population. We used the temporal approach and several statistical methods to estimate the variance effective size of the population. All methods gave similar estimates of effective population size, approximately 40 wolves. These estimates were slightly larger than the estimated census size of breeding individuals. A Bayesian model based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations indicated strong evidence for a long-term population decline. These results suggest that the contemporary wolf population size is roughly 8% of its historical size, and that the population decline dates back to late 19th century or early 20th century. Despite an increase of over 50% in the census size of the population during the whole study period, there was only weak evidence that the effective population size during the last period was higher than during the first. This may be caused by increased inbreeding, diminished dispersal within the population, and decreased immigration to the population during the last study period.

Combined use of maternal, paternal and bi-parental genetic markers for the identification of wolf-dog hybrids.

The identification of hybrids is often a subject of primary concern for the development of conservation and management strategies, but can be difficult when the hybridizing species are closely related and do not possess diagnostic genetic markers. However, the combined use of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), autosomal and Y chromosome genetic markers may allow the identification of hybrids and of the direction of hybridization. We used these three types of markers to genetically characterize one possible wolf-dog hybrid in the endangered Scandinavian wolf population. We first characterized the variability of mtDNA and Y chromosome markers in Scandinavian wolves as well as in neighboring wolf populations and in dogs. While the mtDNA data suggested that the target sample could correspond to a wolf, its Y chromosome type had not been observed before in Scandinavian wolves. We compared the genotype of the target sample at 18 autosomal microsatellite markers with those expected in pure specimens and in hybrids using assignment tests. The combined results led to the conclusion that the animal was a hybrid between a Scandinavian female wolf and a male dog. This finding confirms that inter-specific hybridization between wolves and dogs can occur in natural wolf populations. A possible correlation between hybridization and wolf population density and disturbance deserves further research.

Direct and correlative phenotypic selection on life-history traits in three pre-industrial human populations.

Because natural selection acts simultaneously on several correlated traits, can be under both direct and correlative selection simultaneously. Correlative selection may either weaken or magnify the association between a trait and fitness. Direct effect of a single trait on fitness can be assessed by removing the effects of correlative selection with multivariate techniques. We studied the phenotypic selection on demographic life-history traits in three pre-industrial human populations, which experienced different mortality environments. We used path-analysis to estimate direct and correlative selection on different traits in females and males. Our results indicate substantial differences among the sexes in the force of phenotypic selection on key life-history traits. For females, the most important component of reproductive success was the age at first reproduction. Most important component of fitness for males was the quality of mate. In addition, our analysis revealed considerable among-population variation in the selection on life-history traits. These differences are in accord with the historical notes of among-population variation in the lifestyle and harshness of the environment, suggesting that among-population variation in life-history traits may have been a response to the environmental variation.