Navigating Between Right, Wrong, and Relevant: The Use of Mathematical Modeling in Preclinical Decision Making.

The goal of this mini-review is to summarize the collective experience of the authors for how modeling and simulation approaches have been used to inform various decision points from discovery to First-In-Human clinical trials. The article is divided into a high-level overview of the types of problems that are being aided by modeling and simulation approaches, followed by detailed case studies around drug design (Nektar Therapeutics, Genentech), feasibility analysis (Novartis Pharmaceuticals), improvement of preclinical drug design (Pfizer), and preclinical to clinical extrapolation (Merck, Takeda, and Amgen).

Mathematical models for the effect of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor on visual acuity.

The standard of care treatment for neovascular age-related macular degeneration, delivered as ocular injection, is based on anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF). The course of treatment may need to be modified quickly for certain patients based on their response. Models that track both the concentration and the response to an anti-VEGF treatment are presented. The specific focus is to assess the existence of analytical solutions for the different types of models. Both an ODE-based model and a map-based model illustrate the dependence of the solution on various biological parameters and allow the measurement of patient-specific parameters from experimental data. A PDE-based model incorporates diffusive effects. The results are consistent with observed values, and could provide a framework for practitioners to understand the effect of the therapy on the progression of the disease in both responsive and non-responsive patients.

Immunogenicity of pembrolizumab in patients with advanced tumors.

BACKGROUND: Pembrolizumab is a potent, humanized, monoclonal anti-programmed death 1 antibody that has demonstrated effective antitumor activity and acceptable safety in multiple tumor types. Therapeutic biologics can result in the development of antidrug antibodies (ADAs), which may alter drug clearance and neutralize target binding, potentially reducing drug efficacy; such immunogenicity may also result in infusion reactions, anaphylaxis, and immune complex disorders. Pembrolizumab immunogenicity and its impact on exposure, safety, and efficacy was assessed in this study. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Pembrolizumab immunogenicity was assessed in 3655 patients with advanced or metastatic cancer treated in 12 clinical studies. Patients with melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer, head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, colorectal cancer, urothelial cancer, and Hodgkin lymphoma were treated with pembrolizumab at 2 mg/kg every 3 weeks, 10 mg/kg every 2 weeks, 10 mg/kg every 3 weeks, or 200 mg every 3 weeks. An additional study involving 496 patients with stage III melanoma treated with 200 mg adjuvant pembrolizumab every 3 weeks after complete resection was analyzed separately. RESULTS: Of 3655 patients, 2000 were evaluable for immunogenicity analysis, 36 (1.8%) were treatment-emergent (TE) ADA-positive; 9 (0.5%) of these TE-positive patients had antibodies with neutralizing capacity. The presence of pembrolizumab-specific ADAs did not impact pembrolizumab exposure, nor did pembrolizumab immunogenicity affect the incidence of drug-related adverse events (AEs) or infusion-related reactions. There was no clear relationship between the presence of pembrolizumab-specific ADAs and changes in tumor size across treatment regimens. Of the 496 patients treated with pembrolizumab as adjuvant therapy, 495 were evaluable, 17 (3.4%) were TE ADA-positive; none had neutralizing antibodies. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of TE (neutralizing positive) ADAs against pembrolizumab was low in patients with advanced tumors. Furthermore, immunogenicity did not appear to have any clinically relevant effects on the exposure, safety, or efficacy of pembrolizumab. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01295827 (February 15, 2011), NCT01704287 (October 11, 2012), NCT01866319 (May 31, 2013), NCT01905657 (July 23, 2013), NCT02142738 (May 20, 2014), NCT01848834 (May 8, 2013), NCT02255097 (October 2, 2014), NCT02460198 (June 2, 2015), NCT01953692 (October 1, 2013), NCT02453594 (May 25, 2015), NCT02256436 (October 3, 2014), NCT02335424 (January 9, 2015), NCT02362594 (February 13, 2015).

Pembrolizumab Exposure-Response Assessments Challenged by Association of Cancer Cachexia and Catabolic Clearance.

PURPOSE: To investigate the relationship of pembrolizumab pharmacokinetics (PK) and overall survival (OS) in patients with advanced melanoma and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: PK dependencies in OS were evaluated across three pembrolizumab studies of either 200 mg or 2 to 10 mg/kg every 3 weeks (Q3W). Kaplan-Meier plots of OS, stratified by dose, exposure, and baseline clearance (CL0), were assessed per indication and study. A Cox proportional hazards model was implemented to explore imbalances of typical prognostic factors in high/low NSCLC CL0 subgroups. RESULTS: A total of 1,453 subjects were included: 340 with pembrolizumab-treated melanoma, 804 with pembrolizumab-treated NSCLC, and 309 with docetaxel-treated NSCLC. OS was dose independent from 2 to 10 mg/kg for pembrolizumab-treated melanoma [HR = 0.98; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.94-1.02] and NSCLC (HR = 0.98; 95% CI, 0.95-1.01); however, a strong CL0-OS association was identified for both cancer types (unadjusted melanoma HR = 2.56; 95% CI, 1.72-3.80 and NSCLC HR = 2.64; 95% CI, 1.94-3.57). Decreased OS in subjects with higher pembrolizumab CL0 paralleled disease severity markers associated with end-stage cancer anorexia-cachexia syndrome. Correction for baseline prognostic factors did not fully attenuate the CL0-OS association (multivariate-adjusted CL0 HR = 1.64; 95% CI, 1.06-2.52 for melanoma and HR = 1.88; 95% CI, 1.22-2.89 for NSCLC). CONCLUSIONS: These data support the lack of dose or exposure dependency in pembrolizumab OS for melanoma and NSCLC between 2 and 10 mg/kg. An association of pembrolizumab CL0 with OS potentially reflects catabolic activity as a marker of disease severity versus a direct PK-related impact of pembrolizumab on efficacy. Similar data from other trials suggest such patterns of exposure-response confounding may be a broader phenomenon generalizable to antineoplastic mAbs.See related commentary by Coss et al., p. 5787.

Time dependent pharmacokinetics of pembrolizumab in patients with solid tumor and its correlation with best overall response.

Pembrolizumab is a monoclonal antibody that targets the programmed death-1 receptor to induce immune-mediated clearance (CL) of tumor cells. Originally approved by the US Food and Drug Administration in 2014 for treating patients with unresectable or metastatic melanoma, pembrolizumab is now also used to treat patients with non-small-cell lung cancer, classical Hodgkin lymphoma, head and neck cancer, and urothelial cancer. This paper describes the recently identified feature of pembrolizumab pharmacokinetics, the time-dependent or time-varying CL. Overall results indicate that CL decreases over the treatment period of a typical patient in a pattern well described by a sigmoidal function of time with three parameters: the maximum proportion change in CL from baseline (approximately Imax or exactly eImax - 1), the time to reach Imax/2 (TI50), and a Hill coefficient. Best overall response per response evaluation criteria in solid tumor category was found to be associated with the magnitude of Imax.

Evaluation of dosing strategy for pembrolizumab for oncology indications.

BACKGROUND: Traditionally, most monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) have been dosed based on body weight because of perceived contribution of body size in pharmacokinetic variability. The same approach was used in the initial pembrolizumab studies; however, following availability of PK data, the need for weight-based dosing for pembrolizumab was reassessed. METHODS: A previously established population PK (popPK) model as well as exposure-response results from patients with advanced melanoma or non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) were used to evaluate the potential application of a fixed dosing regimen with the aim of maintaining pembrolizumab exposures within the range demonstrated to provide near maximal efficacy and acceptable safety. Individual PK exposures for the selected fixed dosing regimen from recently completed trials with head and neck cancer, NSCLC, microsatellite instability high (MSI-H) in colorectal cancer (CRC) and urothelial cancer were used to confirm acceptability. To determine whether fixed dosing would maintain exposures within the range of clinical experience, the individual AUC distributions with fixed dosing were compared with the range of exposures from the pembrolizumab doses that were evaluated in early studies (2 mg/kg Q3W, 10 mg/kg Q3W/Q2W). RESULTS: Body-weight dependence of clearance was characterized by a power relationship with an exponent of 0.578, a value consistent with fixed- and weight-based dosing providing similar control of PK variability. A fixed dose of 200 mg Q3W was investigated in trials based on predicted exposures maintained within the established exposure range in all patients. Mean (% CV, n) AUCss, 6-weeks was 1.87 (37%, 830), 1.38 (38%, 760) and 7.63 (35%, 1405) mg*day/mL in patients receiving 200 mg, 2 mg/kg and 10 mg/kg Q3W pembrolizumab. High-weight patients had the lowest exposures with 200 mg Q3W; however, exposures in this group (>90 kg) were within the range of prior clinical experience at 2 mg/kg Q3W associated with near maximal efficacy. CONCLUSIONS: Doses of 200 mg and 2 mg/kg provide similar exposure distributions with no advantage to either dosing approach with respect to controlling PK variability. These findings suggest that weight-based and fixed-dose regimens are appropriate for pembrolizumab.

MCL1 and BCL-xL levels in solid tumors are predictive of dinaciclib-induced apoptosis.

Dinaciclib is a potent CDK1, 2, 5 and 9 inhibitor being developed for the treatment of cancer. Additional understanding of antitumor mechanisms and identification of predictive biomarkers are important for its clinical development. Here we demonstrate that while dinaciclib can effectively block cell cycle progression, in vitro and in vivo studies, coupled with mouse and human pharmacokinetics, support a model whereby induction of apoptosis is a main mechanism of dinaciclib's antitumor effect and relevant to the clinical duration of exposure. This was further underscored by kinetics of dinaciclib-induced downregulation of the antiapoptotic BCL2 family member MCL1 and correlation of sensitivity with the MCL1-to-BCL-xL mRNA ratio or MCL1 amplification in solid tumor models in vitro and in vivo. This MCL1-dependent apoptotic mechanism was additionally supported by synergy with the BCL2, BCL-xL and BCL-w inhibitor navitoclax (ABT-263). These results provide the rationale for investigating MCL1 and BCL-xL as predictive biomarkers for dinaciclib antitumor response and testing combinations with BCL2 family member inhibitors.

A model-based approach to investigating the pathophysiological mechanisms of hypertension and response to antihypertensive therapies: extending the Guyton model.

Reproducibly differential responses to different classes of antihypertensive agents are observed among hypertensive patients and may be due to interindividual differences in hypertension pathology. Computational models provide a tool for investigating the impact of underlying disease mechanisms on the response to antihypertensive therapies with different mechanisms of action. We present the development, calibration, validation, and application of an extension of the Guyton/Karaaslan model of blood pressure regulation. The model incorporates a detailed submodel of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS), allowing therapies that target different parts of this pathway to be distinguished. Literature data on RAAS biomarker and blood pressure responses to different classes of therapies were used to refine the physiological actions of ANG II and aldosterone on renin secretion, renal vascular resistance, and sodium reabsorption. The calibrated model was able to accurately reproduce the RAAS biomarker and blood pressure responses to combinations of dual-RAAS agents, as well as RAAS therapies in combination with diuretics or calcium channel blockers. The final model was used to explore the impact of underlying mechanisms of hypertension on the blood pressure response to different classes of antihypertensive agents. Simulations indicate that the underlying etiology of hypertension can impact the magnitude of response to a given class of therapy, making a patient more sensitive to one class and less sensitive others. Given that hypertension is usually the result of multiple mechanisms, rather than a single factor, these findings yield insight into why combination therapy is often required to adequately control blood pressure.