Late-Season Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Against Medically Attended Outpatient Illness, United States, December 2022-April 2023.

BACKGROUND: The 2022-23 US influenza season peaked early in fall 2022. METHODS: Late-season influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against outpatient, laboratory-confirmed influenza was calculated among participants of the US Influenza VE Network using a test-negative design. RESULTS: Of 2561 participants enrolled from December 12, 2022 to April 30, 2023, 91 laboratory-confirmed influenza cases primarily had A(H1N1)pdm09 (6B.1A.5a.2a.1) or A(H3N2) (3C.2a1b.2a.2b). Overall, VE was 30% (95% confidence interval -9%, 54%); low late-season activity precluded estimation for most subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: 2022-23 late-season outpatient influenza VE was not statistically significant. Genomic characterization may improve the identification of influenza viruses that circulate postinfluenza peak.

Multicountry Spread of Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Viruses with Reduced Oseltamivir Inhibition, May 2023-February 2024.

Since May 2023, a novel combination of neuraminidase mutations, I223V + S247N, has been detected in influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses collected in countries spanning 5 continents, mostly in Europe (67/101). The viruses belong to 2 phylogenetically distinct groups and display ≈13-fold reduced inhibition by oseltamivir while retaining normal susceptibility to other antiviral drugs.

Antigenic Characterization of Circulating and Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants in the U.S. throughout the Delta to Omicron Waves.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has evolved into numerous lineages with unique spike mutations and caused multiple epidemics domestically and globally. Although COVID-19 vaccines are available, new variants with the capacity for immune evasion continue to emerge. To understand and characterize the evolution of circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants in the U.S., the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) initiated the National SARS-CoV-2 Strain Surveillance (NS3) program and has received thousands of SARS-CoV-2 clinical specimens from across the nation as part of a genotype to phenotype characterization process. Focus reduction neutralization with various antisera was used to antigenically characterize 143 SARS-CoV-2 Delta, Mu and Omicron subvariants from selected clinical specimens received between May 2021 and February 2023, representing a total of 59 unique spike protein sequences. BA.4/5 subvariants BU.1, BQ.1.1, CR.1.1, CQ.2 and BA.4/5 + D420N + K444T; BA.2.75 subvariants BM.4.1.1, BA.2.75.2, CV.1; and recombinant Omicron variants XBF, XBB.1, XBB.1.5 showed the greatest escape from neutralizing antibodies when analyzed against post third-dose original monovalent vaccinee sera. Post fourth-dose bivalent vaccinee sera provided better protection against those subvariants, but substantial reductions in neutralization titers were still observed, especially among BA.4/5 subvariants with both an N-terminal domain (NTD) deletion and receptor binding domain (RBD) substitutions K444M + N460K and recombinant Omicron variants. This analysis demonstrated a framework for long-term systematic genotype to antigenic characterization of circulating and emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants in the U.S., which is critical to assessing their potential impact on the effectiveness of current vaccines and antigen recommendations for future updates.

Targeted amplification and genetic sequencing of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 surface glycoprotein.

IMPORTANCE: The COVID-19 pandemic was accompanied by an unprecedented surveillance effort. The resulting data were and will continue to be critical for surveillance and control of SARS-CoV-2. However, some genomic surveillance methods experienced challenges as the virus evolved, resulting in incomplete and poor quality data. Complete and quality coverage, especially of the S-gene, is important for supporting the selection of vaccine candidates. As such, we developed a robust method to target the S-gene for amplification and sequencing. By focusing on the S-gene and imposing strict coverage and quality metrics, we hope to increase the quality of surveillance data for this continually evolving gene. Our technique is currently being deployed globally to partner laboratories, and public health representatives from 79 countries have received hands-on training and support. Expanding access to quality surveillance methods will undoubtedly lead to earlier detection of novel variants and better inform vaccine strain selection.

Genetic and potential antigenic evolution of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses circulating in Kenya during 2009-2018 influenza seasons.

Influenza viruses undergo rapid evolutionary changes, which requires continuous surveillance to monitor for genetic and potential antigenic changes in circulating viruses that can guide control and prevention decision making. We sequenced and phylogenetically analyzed A(H1N1)pdm09 virus genome sequences obtained from specimens collected from hospitalized patients of all ages with or without pneumonia between 2009 and 2018 from seven sentinel surveillance sites across Kenya. We compared these sequences with recommended vaccine strains during the study period to infer genetic and potential antigenic changes in circulating viruses and associations of clinical outcome. We generated and analyzed a total of 383 A(H1N1)pdm09 virus genome sequences. Phylogenetic analyses of HA protein revealed that multiple genetic groups (clades, subclades, and subgroups) of A(H1N1)pdm09 virus circulated in Kenya over the study period; these evolved away from their vaccine strain, forming clades 7 and 6, subclades 6C, 6B, and 6B.1, and subgroups 6B.1A and 6B.1A1 through acquisition of additional substitutions. Several amino acid substitutions among circulating viruses were associated with continued evolution of the viruses, especially in antigenic epitopes and receptor binding sites (RBS) of circulating viruses. Disease severity declined with an increase in age among children aged < 5 years. Our study highlights the necessity of timely genomic surveillance to monitor the evolutionary changes of influenza viruses. Routine influenza surveillance with broad geographic representation and whole genome sequencing capacity to inform on prioritization of antigenic analysis and the severity of circulating strains are critical to improved selection of influenza strains for inclusion in vaccines.

Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States.

Influenza viruses continually evolve new antigenic variants, through mutations in epitopes of their major surface proteins, hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). Antigenic drift potentiates the reinfection of previously infected individuals, but the contribution of this process to variability in annual epidemics is not well understood. Here we link influenza A(H3N2) virus evolution to regional epidemic dynamics in the United States during 1997-2019. We integrate phenotypic measures of HA antigenic drift and sequence-based measures of HA and NA fitness to infer antigenic and genetic distances between viruses circulating in successive seasons. We estimate the magnitude, severity, timing, transmission rate, age-specific patterns, and subtype dominance of each regional outbreak and find that genetic distance based on broad sets of epitope sites is the strongest evolutionary predictor of A(H3N2) virus epidemiology. Increased HA and NA epitope distance between seasons correlates with larger, more intense epidemics, higher transmission, greater A(H3N2) subtype dominance, and a greater proportion of cases in adults relative to children, consistent with increased population susceptibility. Based on random forest models, A(H1N1) incidence impacts A(H3N2) epidemics to a greater extent than viral evolution, suggesting that subtype interference is a major driver of influenza A virus infection dynamics, presumably via heterosubtypic cross-immunity.

Genomic Surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 Variants: Circulation of Omicron Lineages - United States, January 2022-May 2023.

CDC has used national genomic surveillance since December 2020 to monitor SARS-CoV-2 variants that have emerged throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, including the Omicron variant. This report summarizes U.S. trends in variant proportions from national genomic surveillance during January 2022-May 2023. During this period, the Omicron variant remained predominant, with various descendant lineages reaching national predominance (>50% prevalence). During the first half of 2022, BA.1.1 reached predominance by the week ending January 8, 2022, followed by BA.2 (March 26), BA.2.12.1 (May 14), and BA.5 (July 2); the predominance of each variant coincided with surges in COVID-19 cases. The latter half of 2022 was characterized by the circulation of sublineages of BA.2, BA.4, and BA.5 (e.g., BQ.1 and BQ.1.1), some of which independently acquired similar spike protein substitutions associated with immune evasion. By the end of January 2023, XBB.1.5 became predominant. As of May 13, 2023, the most common circulating lineages were XBB.1.5 (61.5%), XBB.1.9.1 (10.0%), and XBB.1.16 (9.4%); XBB.1.16 and XBB.1.16.1 (2.4%), containing the K478R substitution, and XBB.2.3 (3.2%), containing the P521S substitution, had the fastest doubling times at that point. Analytic methods for estimating variant proportions have been updated as the availability of sequencing specimens has declined. The continued evolution of Omicron lineages highlights the importance of genomic surveillance to monitor emerging variants and help guide vaccine development and use of therapeutics.

Timing of seasonal influenza epidemics for 25 countries in Africa during 2010-19: a retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: Using country-specific surveillance data to describe influenza epidemic activity could inform decisions on the timing of influenza vaccination. We analysed surveillance data from African countries to characterise the timing of seasonal influenza epidemics to inform national vaccination strategies. METHODS: We used publicly available sentinel data from African countries reporting to the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance and Response FluNet platform that had 3-10 years of data collected during 2010-19. We calculated a 3-week moving proportion of samples positive for influenza virus and assessed epidemic timing using an aggregate average method. The start and end of each epidemic were defined as the first week when the proportion of positive samples exceeded or went below the annual mean, respectively, for at least 3 consecutive weeks. We categorised countries into five epidemic patterns: northern hemisphere-dominant, with epidemics occurring in October-March; southern hemisphere-dominant, with epidemics occurring in April-September; primarily northern hemisphere with some epidemic activity in southern hemisphere months; primarily southern hemisphere with some epidemic activity in northern hemisphere months; and year-round influenza transmission without a discernible northern hemisphere or southern hemisphere predominance (no clear pattern). FINDINGS: Of the 34 countries reporting data to FluNet, 25 had at least 3 years of data, representing 46% of the countries in Africa and 89% of Africa's population. Study countries reported RT-PCR respiratory virus results for a total of 503 609 specimens (median 12 971 [IQR 9607-20 960] per country-year), of which 74 001 (15%; median 2078 [IQR 1087-3008] per country-year) were positive for influenza viruses. 248 epidemics occurred across 236 country-years of data (median 10 [range 7-10] per country). Six (24%) countries had a northern hemisphere pattern (Algeria, Burkina Faso, Egypt, Morocco, Niger, and Tunisia). Eight (32%) had a primarily northern hemisphere pattern with some southern hemisphere epidemics (Cameroon, Ethiopia, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, and Togo). Three (12%) had a primarily southern hemisphere pattern with some northern hemisphere epidemics (Ghana, Kenya, and Uganda). Three (12%) had a southern hemisphere pattern (Central African Republic, South Africa, and Zambia). Five (20%) had no clear pattern (Côte d'Ivoire, DR Congo, Madagascar, Mauritius, and Rwanda). INTERPRETATION: Most countries had identifiable influenza epidemic periods that could be used to inform authorities of non-seasonal and seasonal influenza activity, guide vaccine timing, and promote timely interventions. FUNDING: None. TRANSLATIONS: For the Berber, Luganda, Xhosa, Chewa, Yoruba, Igbo, Hausa and Afan Oromo translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Spike Gene Target Amplification in a Diagnostic Assay as a Marker for Public Health Monitoring of Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants - United States, November 2021-January 2023.

Monitoring emerging SARS-CoV-2 lineages and their epidemiologic characteristics helps to inform public health decisions regarding vaccine policy, the use of therapeutics, and health care capacity. When the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant emerged in late 2020, a spike gene (S-gene) deletion (Δ69-70) in the N-terminal region, which might compensate for immune escape mutations that impair infectivity (1), resulted in reduced or failed S-gene target amplification in certain multitarget reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assays, a pattern referred to as S-gene target failure (SGTF) (2). The predominant U.S. SARS-CoV-2 lineages have generally alternated between SGTF and S-gene target presence (SGTP), which alongside genomic sequencing, has facilitated early monitoring of emerging variants. During a period when Omicron BA.5-related sublineages (which exhibit SGTF) predominated, an XBB.1.5 sublineage with SGTP has rapidly expanded in the northeastern United States and other regions.

Cross-neutralization and viral fitness of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron sublineages.

The rapid evolution of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron sublineages mandates a better understanding of viral replication and cross-neutralization among these sublineages. Here we used K18-hACE2 mice and primary human airway cultures to examine the viral fitness and antigenic relationship among Omicron sublineages. In both K18-hACE2 mice and human airway cultures, Omicron sublineages exhibited a replication order of BA.5 ≥ BA.2 ≥ BA.2.12.1 > BA.1; no difference in body weight loss was observed among different sublineage-infected mice. The BA.1-, BA.2-, BA.2.12.1-, and BA.5-infected mice developed distinguishable cross-neutralizations against Omicron sublineages, but exhibited little neutralization against the index virus (i.e. USA-WA1/2020) or the Delta variant. Surprisingly, the BA.5-infected mice developed higher neutralization activity against heterologous BA.2 and BA.2.12.1 than that against homologous BA.5; serum neutralizing titres did not always correlate with viral replication levels in infected animals. Our results revealed a distinct antigenic cartography of Omicron sublineages and support the bivalent vaccine approach.

Leveraging International Influenza Surveillance Systems and Programs during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

A network of global respiratory disease surveillance systems and partnerships has been built over decades as a direct response to the persistent threat of seasonal, zoonotic, and pandemic influenza. These efforts have been spearheaded by the World Health Organization, country ministries of health, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, nongovernmental organizations, academic groups, and others. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention worked closely with ministries of health in partner countries and the World Health Organization to leverage influenza surveillance systems and programs to respond to SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Countries used existing surveillance systems for severe acute respiratory infection and influenza-like illness, respiratory virus laboratory resources, pandemic influenza preparedness plans, and ongoing population-based influenza studies to track, study, and respond to SARS-CoV-2 infections. The incorporation of COVID-19 surveillance into existing influenza sentinel surveillance systems can support continued global surveillance for respiratory viruses with pandemic potential.

An optimized cell-based assay to assess influenza virus replication by measuring neuraminidase activity and its applications for virological surveillance.

Year-round virological characterization of circulating epidemic influenza viruses is conducted worldwide to detect the emergence of viruses that may escape pre-existing immunity or acquire resistance to antivirals. High throughput phenotypic assays are needed to complement the sequence-based analysis of circulating viruses and improve pandemic preparedness. The recent entry of a polymerase inhibitor, baloxavir, into the global market further highlighted this need. Here, we optimized a cell-based assay that considerably streamlines antiviral and antigenic testing by replacing lengthy immunostaining and imaging procedures used in current assay with measuring the enzymatic activity of nascent neuraminidase (NA) molecules expressed on the surface of virus-infected cells. For convenience, this new assay was named IRINA (Influenza Replication Inhibition Neuraminidase-based Assay). IRINA was successfully validated to assess inhibitory activity of baloxavir on virus replication by testing a large set (>150) of influenza A and B viruses, including drug resistant strains and viruses collected during 2017-2022. To test its versatility, IRINA was utilized to evaluate neutralization activity of a broadly reactive human anti-HA monoclonal antibody, FI6, and post-infection ferret antisera, as well as the inhibition of NA enzyme activity by NA inhibitors. Performance of IRINA was tested in parallel using respective conventional assays. IRINA offers an attractive alternative to current phenotypic assays, while maintaining reproducibility and high throughput capacity. Additionally, the improved turnaround time may prove to be advantageous when conducting time sensitive studies, such as investigating a new virus outbreak. This assay can meet the needs of surveillance laboratories by providing a streamlined and cost-effective approach for virus characterization.

Influenza Activity and Composition of the 2022-23 Influenza Vaccine - United States, 2021-22 Season.

Before the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, influenza activity in the United States typically began to increase in the fall and peaked in February. During the 2021-22 season, influenza activity began to increase in November and remained elevated until mid-June, featuring two distinct waves, with A(H3N2) viruses predominating for the entire season. This report summarizes influenza activity during October 3, 2021-June 11, 2022, in the United States and describes the composition of the Northern Hemisphere 2022-23 influenza vaccine. Although influenza activity is decreasing and circulation during summer is typically low, remaining vigilant for influenza infections, performing testing for seasonal influenza viruses, and monitoring for novel influenza A virus infections are important. An outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) is ongoing; health care providers and persons with exposure to sick or infected birds should remain vigilant for onset of symptoms consistent with influenza. Receiving a seasonal influenza vaccine each year remains the best way to protect against seasonal influenza and its potentially severe consequences.

United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention support for influenza surveillance, 2013-2021.

Objective: To assess the stability of improvements in global respiratory virus surveillance in countries supported by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) after reductions in CDC funding and with the stress of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Methods: We assessed whether national influenza surveillance systems of CDC-funded countries: (i) continued to analyse as many specimens between 2013 and 2021; (ii) participated in activities of the World Health Organization's (WHO) Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System; (iii) tested enough specimens to detect rare events or signals of unusual activity; and (iv) demonstrated stability before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We used CDC budget records and data from the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System. Findings: While CDC reduced per-country influenza funding by about 75% over 10 years, the number of specimens tested annually remained stable (mean 2261). Reporting varied substantially by country and transmission zone. Countries funded by CDC accounted for 71% (range 61-75%) of specimens included in WHO consultations on the composition of influenza virus vaccines. In 2019, only eight of the 17 transmission zones sent enough specimens to WHO collaborating centres before the vaccine composition meeting to reliably identify antigenic variants. Conclusion: Great progress has been made in the global understanding of influenza trends and seasonality. To optimize surveillance to identify atypical influenza viruses, and to integrate molecular testing, sequencing and reporting of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 into existing systems, funding must continue to support these efforts.

SARS-CoV-2 Delta-Omicron Recombinant Viruses, United States.

To detect new and changing SARS-CoV-2 variants, we investigated candidate Delta-Omicron recombinant genomes from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention national genomic surveillance. Laboratory and bioinformatic investigations identified and validated 9 genetically related SARS-CoV-2 viruses with a hybrid Delta-Omicron spike protein.

Interim Estimates of 2021-22 Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness - United States, February 2022.

In the United States, annual vaccination against seasonal influenza is recommended for all persons aged ≥6 months except when contraindicated (1). Currently available influenza vaccines are designed to protect against four influenza viruses: A(H1N1)pdm09 (the 2009 pandemic virus), A(H3N2), B/Victoria lineage, and B/Yamagata lineage. Most influenza viruses detected this season have been A(H3N2) (2). With the exception of the 2020-21 season, when data were insufficient to generate an estimate, CDC has estimated the effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccine at preventing laboratory-confirmed, mild/moderate (outpatient) medically attended acute respiratory infection (ARI) each season since 2004-05. This interim report uses data from 3,636 children and adults with ARI enrolled in the U.S. Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network during October 4, 2021-February 12, 2022. Overall, vaccine effectiveness (VE) against medically attended outpatient ARI associated with influenza A(H3N2) virus was 16% (95% CI = -16% to 39%), which is considered not statistically significant. This analysis indicates that influenza vaccination did not reduce the risk for outpatient medically attended illness with influenza A(H3N2) viruses that predominated so far this season. Enrollment was insufficient to generate reliable VE estimates by age group or by type of influenza vaccine product (1). CDC recommends influenza antiviral medications as an adjunct to vaccination; the potential public health benefit of antiviral medications is magnified in the context of reduced influenza VE. CDC routinely recommends that health care providers continue to administer influenza vaccine to persons aged ≥6 months as long as influenza viruses are circulating, even when VE against one virus is reduced, because vaccine can prevent serious outcomes (e.g., hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, or death) that are associated with influenza A(H3N2) virus infection and might protect against other influenza viruses that could circulate later in the season.

Genomic Surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 Variants: Predominance of the Delta (B.1.617.2) and Omicron (B.1.1.529) Variants - United States, June 2021-January 2022.

Genomic surveillance is a critical tool for tracking emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19), which can exhibit characteristics that potentially affect public health and clinical interventions, including increased transmissibility, illness severity, and capacity for immune escape. During June 2021-January 2022, CDC expanded genomic surveillance data sources to incorporate sequence data from public repositories to produce weighted estimates of variant proportions at the jurisdiction level and refined analytic methods to enhance the timeliness and accuracy of national and regional variant proportion estimates. These changes also allowed for more comprehensive variant proportion estimation at the jurisdictional level (i.e., U.S. state, district, territory, and freely associated state). The data in this report are a summary of findings of recent proportions of circulating variants that are updated weekly on CDC's COVID Data Tracker website to enable timely public health action.† The SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B.1.617.2 and AY sublineages) variant rose from 1% to >50% of viral lineages circulating nationally during 8 weeks, from May 1-June 26, 2021. Delta-associated infections remained predominant until being rapidly overtaken by infections associated with the Omicron (B.1.1.529 and BA sublineages) variant in December 2021, when Omicron increased from 1% to >50% of circulating viral lineages during a 2-week period. As of the week ending January 22, 2022, Omicron was estimated to account for 99.2% (95% CI = 99.0%-99.5%) of SARS-CoV-2 infections nationwide, and Delta for 0.7% (95% CI = 0.5%-1.0%). The dynamic landscape of SARS-CoV-2 variants in 2021, including Delta- and Omicron-driven resurgences of SARS-CoV-2 transmission across the United States, underscores the importance of robust genomic surveillance efforts to inform public health planning and practice.