Colorectal preOperative Surgical Score (CrOSS) for mortality in major colorectal surgery.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal surgery carries a significant mortality risk, with reported rates of 1-6% for elective surgery and up to 22% in the emergency setting. Both clinicians and patients will benefit from being able to predict the likelihood of death before surgery. Recently, we have described and validated two risk stratification models for colorectal surgery, the Barwon Health 2012 and Association Française de Chirurgie models. However, these models are not suitable for assessment at patient's bedside. The purpose of this study is to develop a simplified preoperative model capable of predicting mortality following colorectal surgery. METHODS: The new model is termed Colorectal preOperative Surgical Score (CrOSS). The development and internal validation of CrOSS was performed using a prospectively maintained colorectal database. External validation was performed using retrospective data. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed in model development. Calibration and discrimination were used for model validation. RESULTS: There were 474 and 389 consecutive colorectal surgeries at Geelong Hospital and Western Hospital. Overall mortality rates were 5.16% and 1.03%, respectively. Significant predictors for mortality were as follows: age ≥70, urgent operation, albumin ≤30 g/L and congestive heart failure (receiver operating characteristic (ROC) = 0.870, calibration P-value = 0.937). The predicted risk of mortality was stratified according to the risk profile of 0.39-66.51%. When validated externally, CrOSS predicted mortality accurately (ROC = 0.847, calibration P-value = 0.199). CONCLUSIONS: A robust and simple preoperative model has been created to risk-stratify patients for colorectal surgery. This was successfully validated at another tertiary hospital.

A case of a bleeding benign gastrocolic fistula in 2014.

INTRODUCTION: In the era of proton pump inhibitors in the treatment of peptic ulcer disease, the incidence of a gastrocolic fistula arising from unoperated gastric ulcers is extremely low. PRESENTATION OF CASE: We present the case of a 68-year old farmer who presented with melaena and was found to have a benign gastrocolic fistula in the setting of untreated peptic ulcer disease, chronic NSAID ingestion and heavy alcohol intake. The diagnosis was made by gastroscopy. En bloc surgery was undertaken due to the size of the fistula and concomitant significant bleeding of the ulcer which would not have made it amenable to medical management. DISCUSSION: The symptoms of a gastrocolic fistula are undifferentiated and the diagnosis can easily be missed in the setting of other complications such as bleeding or perforation of a hollow viscus. Barium enamas are the most accurate for the diagnosis but gastroscopy with biopsy is usually performed to rule out malignancy. The mainstay of treatment is usually surgical, though patients can be medically managed if he/she is not a surgical candidate. CONCLUSION: Benign gastrocolic fistulas are rare and its diagnosis is easily missed.