Prospective validation of clinical deterioration predictive models prior to intensive care unit transfer among patients admitted to acute care cardiology wards.

Objective. Very few predictive models have been externally validated in a prospective cohort following the implementation of an artificial intelligence analytic system. This type of real-world validation is critically important due to the risk of data drift, or changes in data definitions or clinical practices over time, that could impact model performance in contemporaneous real-world cohorts. In this work, we report the model performance of a predictive analytics tool developed before COVID-19 and demonstrate model performance during the COVID-19 pandemic.Approach. The analytic system (CoMETⓇ, Nihon Kohden Digital Health Solutions LLC, Irvine, CA) was implemented in a randomized controlled trial that enrolled 10 422 patient visits in a 1:1 display-on display-off design. The CoMET scores were calculated for all patients but only displayed in the display-on arm. Only the control/display-off group is reported here because the scores could not alter care patterns.Main results.Of the 5184 visits in the display-off arm, 311 experienced clinical deterioration and care escalation, resulting in transfer to the intensive care unit, primarily due to respiratory distress. The model performance of CoMET was assessed based on areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve, which ranged from 0.725 to 0.737.Significance.The models were well-calibrated, and there were dynamic increases in the model scores in the hours preceding the clinical deterioration events. A hypothetical alerting strategy based on a rise in score and duration of the rise would have had good performance, with a positive predictive value more than 10-fold the event rate. We conclude that predictive statistical models developed five years before study initiation had good model performance despite the passage of time and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Maturation of cardioventilatory physiological trajectories in extremely preterm infants.

BACKGROUND: In extremely preterm infants, persistence of cardioventilatory events is associated with long-term morbidity. Therefore, the objective was to characterize physiologic growth curves of apnea, periodic breathing, intermittent hypoxemia, and bradycardia in extremely preterm infants during the first few months of life. METHODS: The Prematurity-Related Ventilatory Control study included 717 preterm infants <29 weeks gestation. Waveforms were downloaded from bedside monitors with a novel sharing analytics strategy utilized to run software locally, with summary data sent to the Data Coordinating Center for compilation. RESULTS: Apnea, periodic breathing, and intermittent hypoxemia events rose from day 3 of life then fell to near-resolution by 8-12 weeks of age. Apnea/intermittent hypoxemia were inversely correlated with gestational age, peaking at 3-4 weeks of age. Periodic breathing was positively correlated with gestational age peaking at 31-33 weeks postmenstrual age. Females had more periodic breathing but less intermittent hypoxemia/bradycardia. White infants had more apnea/periodic breathing/intermittent hypoxemia. Infants never receiving mechanical ventilation followed similar postnatal trajectories but with less apnea and intermittent hypoxemia, and more periodic breathing. CONCLUSIONS: Cardioventilatory events peak during the first month of life but the actual postnatal trajectory is dependent on the type of event, race, sex and use of mechanical ventilation. IMPACT: Physiologic curves of cardiorespiratory events in extremely preterm-born infants offer (1) objective measures to assess individual patient courses and (2) guides for research into control of ventilation, biomarkers and outcomes. Presented are updated maturational trajectories of apnea, periodic breathing, intermittent hypoxemia, and bradycardia in 717 infants born <29 weeks gestation from the multi-site NHLBI-funded Pre-Vent study. Cardioventilatory events peak during the first month of life but the actual postnatal trajectory is dependent on the type of event, race, sex and use of mechanical ventilation. Different time courses for apnea and periodic breathing suggest different maturational mechanisms.

Cardiorespiratory Monitoring Data to Predict Respiratory Outcomes in Extremely Preterm Infants.

Rationale: Immature control of breathing is associated with apnea, periodic breathing, intermittent hypoxemia, and bradycardia in extremely preterm infants. However, it is not clear if such events independently predict worse respiratory outcome. Objectives: To determine if analysis of cardiorespiratory monitoring data can predict unfavorable respiratory outcomes at 40 weeks postmenstrual age (PMA) and other outcomes, such as bronchopulmonary dysplasia at 36 weeks PMA. Methods: The Prematurity-related Ventilatory Control (Pre-Vent) study was an observational multicenter prospective cohort study including infants born at <29 weeks of gestation with continuous cardiorespiratory monitoring. The primary outcome was either "favorable" (alive and previously discharged or inpatient and off respiratory medications/O2/support at 40 wk PMA) or "unfavorable" (either deceased or inpatient/previously discharged on respiratory medications/O2/support at 40 wk PMA). Measurements and Main Results: A total of 717 infants were evaluated (median birth weight, 850 g; gestation, 26.4 wk), 53.7% of whom had a favorable outcome and 46.3% of whom had an unfavorable outcome. Physiologic data predicted unfavorable outcome, with accuracy improving with advancing age (area under the curve, 0.79 at Day 7, 0.85 at Day 28 and 32 wk PMA). The physiologic variable that contributed most to prediction was intermittent hypoxemia with oxygen saturation as measured by pulse oximetry <90%. Models with clinical data alone or combining physiologic and clinical data also had good accuracy, with areas under the curve of 0.84-0.85 at Days 7 and 14 and 0.86-0.88 at Day 28 and 32 weeks PMA. Intermittent hypoxemia with oxygen saturation as measured by pulse oximetry <80% was the major physiologic predictor of severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia and death or mechanical ventilation at 40 weeks PMA. Conclusions: Physiologic data are independently associated with unfavorable respiratory outcome in extremely preterm infants.

Accuracy of a Risk Alert Threshold for ICU Hypoglycemia: Retrospective Analysis of Alert Performance and Association With Clinical Deterioration Events.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify the accuracy of and clinical events associated with a risk alert threshold for impending hypoglycemia during ICU admissions. DESIGN: Retrospective electronic health record review of clinical events occurring greater than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to 12 hours after the hypoglycemia risk alert threshold was met. SETTING: Adult ICU admissions from June 2020 through April 2021 at the University of Virginia Medical Center. PATIENTS: Three hundred forty-two critically ill adults that were 63.5% male with median age 60.8 years, median weight 79.1 kg, and median body mass index of 27.5 kg/m2. INTERVENTIONS: Real-world testing of our validated predictive model as a clinical decision support tool for ICU hypoglycemia. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We retrospectively reviewed 350 hypothetical alerts that met inclusion criteria for analysis. The alerts correctly predicted 48 cases of level 1 hypoglycemia that occurred greater than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to 12 hours after the alert threshold was met (positive predictive value = 13.7%). Twenty-one of these 48 cases (43.8%) involved level 2 hypoglycemia. Notably, three myocardial infarctions, one medical emergency team call, 19 deaths, and 20 arrhythmias occurred greater than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to 12 hours after an alert threshold was met. CONCLUSIONS: Alerts generated by a validated ICU hypoglycemia prediction model had a positive predictive value of 13.7% for real-world hypoglycemia events. This proof-of-concept result suggests that the predictive model offers clinical value, but further prospective testing is needed to confirm this.

Hypoxemia in infants with trisomy 21 in the neonatal intensive care unit.

OBJECTIVE: Newborns with trisomy 21 (T21) often require NICU hospitalization. Oxygen desaturations are frequently observed in these infants, even in the absence of congenital heart defects (CHD). We hypothesized that NICU patients with T21 have more hypoxemia than those without T21. DESIGN: All infants with T21 without significant CHD discharged home from the NICU between 2009 and 2018 were included (n = 23). Controls were matched 20:1 for gestational age and length of stay. We compared daily severe hypoxemia events (SpO2 < 80% for ≥10 s) for the whole NICU stay and the pre-discharge week. RESULTS: Infants with T21 showed significantly more daily hypoxemia events during their entire NICU stay (median 10 versus 7, p = 0.0064), and more so in their final week (13 versus 7, p = 0.0008). CONCLUSION: NICU patients with T21 without CHD experience more severe hypoxemia events than controls, particularly in the week before discharge. Whether this hypoxemia predicts or contributes to adverse outcomes is unknown.

Predictive Monitoring-Impact in Acute Care Cardiology Trial (PM-IMPACCT): Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Patients in acute care wards who deteriorate and are emergently transferred to intensive care units (ICUs) have poor outcomes. Early identification of patients who are decompensating might allow for earlier clinical intervention and reduced morbidity and mortality. Advances in bedside continuous predictive analytics monitoring (ie, artificial intelligence [AI]-based risk prediction) have made complex data easily available to health care providers and have provided early warning of potentially catastrophic clinical events. We present a dynamic, visual, predictive analytics monitoring tool that integrates real-time bedside telemetric physiologic data into robust clinical models to estimate and communicate risk of imminent events. This tool, Continuous Monitoring of Event Trajectories (CoMET), has been shown in retrospective observational studies to predict clinical decompensation on the acute care ward. There is a need to more definitively study this advanced predictive analytics or AI monitoring system in a prospective, randomized controlled, clinical trial. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this trial is to determine the impact of an AI-based visual risk analytic, CoMET, on improving patient outcomes related to clinical deterioration, response time to proactive clinical action, and costs to the health care system. METHODS: We propose a cluster randomized controlled trial to test the impact of using the CoMET display in an acute care cardiology and cardiothoracic surgery hospital floor. The number of admissions to a room undergoing cluster randomization was estimated to be 10,424 over the 20-month study period. Cluster randomization based on bed number will occur every 2 months. The intervention cluster will have the CoMET score displayed (along with standard of care), while the usual care group will receive standard of care only. RESULTS: The primary outcome will be hours free from events of clinical deterioration. Hours of acute clinical events are defined as time when one or more of the following occur: emergent ICU transfer, emergent surgery prior to ICU transfer, cardiac arrest prior to ICU transfer, emergent intubation, or death. The clinical trial began randomization in January 2021. CONCLUSIONS: Very few AI-based health analytics have been translated from algorithm to real-world use. This study will use robust, prospective, randomized controlled, clinical trial methodology to assess the effectiveness of an advanced AI predictive analytics monitoring system in incorporating real-time telemetric data for identifying clinical deterioration on acute care wards. This analysis will strengthen the ability of health care organizations to evolve as learning health systems, in which bioinformatics data are applied to improve patient outcomes by incorporating AI into knowledge tools that are successfully integrated into clinical practice by health care providers. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04359641; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04359641. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/29631.

Autism risk in neonatal intensive care unit patients associated with novel heart rate patterns.

BACKGROUND: Neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) patients are at increased risk for autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Autonomic nervous system aberrancy has been described in children with ASD, and we aimed to identify heart rate (HR) patterns in NICU patients associated with eventual ASD diagnosis. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included NICU patients from 2009 to 2016 with archived HR data and follow-up beyond age 3 years. Medical records provided clinical variables and ASD diagnosis. HR data were compared in infants with and without ASD. RESULTS: Of the 2371 patients, 88 had ASD, and 689,016 h of data were analyzed. HR skewness (HRskw) was significantly different between ASD and control infants. Preterm infants at early postmenstrual ages (PMAs) had negative HRskw reflecting decelerations, which increased with maturation. From 34 to 42 weeks PMA, positive HRskw toward accelerations was higher in males with ASD. In 931 males with at least 4 days of HR data, overall ASD prevalence was 5%, whereas 11% in the top 5th HRskw percentile had ASD. CONCLUSION: High HRskw in NICU males, perhaps representing autonomic imbalance, was associated with increased ASD risk. Further study is needed to determine whether HR analysis identifies highest-risk infants who might benefit from earlier screening and therapies. IMPACT: In a large retrospective single-center cohort of NICU patients, we found that high positive skewness of heart rate toward more accelerations was significantly associated with increased risk of eventual autism spectrum disorder diagnosis in male infants but not in females. Existing literature describes differences in heart rate characteristics in children, adolescents, and adults with autism spectrum disorders, but the finding from our study in NICU infants is novel. Heart rate analysis during the NICU stay might identify, among an inherently high-risk population, those infants with especially high risk of ASD who might benefit from earlier screening and therapies.

Mutations in GDF11 and the extracellular antagonist, Follistatin, as a likely cause of Mendelian forms of orofacial clefting in humans.

Cleft lip with or without cleft palate (CL/P) is generally viewed as a complex trait with multiple genetic and environmental contributions. In 70% of cases, CL/P presents as an isolated feature and/or deemed nonsyndromic. In the remaining 30%, CL/P is associated with multisystem phenotypes or clinically recognizable syndromes, many with a monogenic basis. Here we report the identification, via exome sequencing, of likely pathogenic variants in two genes that encode interacting proteins previously only linked to orofacial clefting in mouse models. A variant in GDF11 (encoding growth differentiation factor 11), predicting a p.(Arg298Gln) substitution at the Furin protease cleavage site, was identified in one family that segregated with CL/P and both rib and vertebral hypersegmentation, mirroring that seen in Gdf11 knockout mice. In the second family in which CL/P was the only phenotype, a mutation in FST (encoding the GDF11 antagonist, Follistatin) was identified that is predicted to result in a p.(Cys56Tyr) substitution in the region that binds GDF11. Functional assays demonstrated a significant impact of the specific mutated amino acids on FST and GDF11 function and, together with embryonic expression data, provide strong evidence for the importance of GDF11 and Follistatin in the regulation of human orofacial development.

Pre-Vent: the prematurity-related ventilatory control study.

BACKGROUND: The increasing incidence of bronchopulmonary dysplasia in premature babies may be due in part to immature ventilatory control, contributing to hypoxemia. The latter responds to ventilation and/or oxygen therapy, treatments associated with adverse sequelae. This is an overview of the Prematurity-Related Ventilatory Control Study which aims to analyze the under-utilized cardiorespiratory continuous waveform monitoring data to delineate mechanisms of immature ventilatory control in preterm infants and identify predictive markers. METHODS: Continuous ECG, heart rate, respiratory, and oxygen saturation data will be collected throughout the NICU stay in 500 infants < 29 wks gestation across 5 centers. Mild permissive hypercapnia, and hyperoxia and/or hypoxia assessments will be conducted in a subcohort of infants along with inpatient questionnaires, urine, serum, and DNA samples. RESULTS: Primary outcomes will be respiratory status at 40 wks and quantitative measures of immature breathing plotted on a standard curve for infants matched at 36-37 wks. Physiologic and/or biologic determinants will be collected to enhance the predictive model linking ventilatory control to outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: By incorporating bedside monitoring variables along with biomarkers that predict respiratory outcomes we aim to elucidate individualized cardiopulmonary phenotypes and mechanisms of ventilatory control contributing to adverse respiratory outcomes in premature infants.

Mutations in the Epithelial Cadherin-p120-Catenin Complex Cause Mendelian Non-Syndromic Cleft Lip with or without Cleft Palate.

Non-syndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (NS-CL/P) is one of the most common human birth defects and is generally considered a complex trait. Despite numerous loci identified by genome-wide association studies, the effect sizes of common variants are relatively small, with much of the presumed genetic contribution remaining elusive. We report exome-sequencing results in 209 people from 72 multi-affected families with pedigree structures consistent with autosomal-dominant inheritance and variable penetrance. Herein, pathogenic variants are described in four genes encoding components of the p120-catenin complex (CTNND1, PLEKHA7, PLEKHA5) and an epithelial splicing regulator (ESRP2), in addition to the known CL/P-associated gene, CDH1, which encodes E-cadherin. The findings were also validated in a second cohort of 497 people with NS-CL/P, comprising small families and singletons with pathogenic variants in these genes identified in 14% of multi-affected families and 2% of the replication cohort of smaller families. Enriched expression of each gene/protein in human and mouse embryonic oro-palatal epithelia, demonstration of functional impact of CTNND1 and ESRP2 variants, and recapitulation of the CL/P spectrum in Ctnnd1 knockout mice support a causative role in CL/P pathogenesis. These data show that primary defects in regulators of epithelial cell adhesion are the most significant contributors to NS-CL/P identified to date and that inherited and de novo single gene variants explain a substantial proportion of NS-CL/P.