Understanding the spatiotemporal variability and trends of surface ozone over India.

With rising anthropogenic activities, surface ozone levels have increased across different parts of the world including India. Previous studies have shown that surface ozone shows distinct characteristics across India but these results are based on isolated locations and any comprehensive and spatiotemporally consistent study about surface ozone variability lacks thus far. Keeping these facts in mind, we utilize ground-based observations and reanalysis datasets to investigate spatiotemporal variations of surface ozone and its linkages with meteorology and precursors over Indian region. A validation exercise shows that the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service Reanalysis (CAMSRA) reasonably compares against the ground-based observations showing better correlations (> 0.7) over southern regions and relatively lesser (> 0.5) correlations over northern and eastern regions. We have further quantified this agreement in terms of range, mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE). A time series analysis shows that the CAMSRA captures seasonal variations irrespective of location. Spatial distribution of surface ozone shows higher (lower) concentrations of about 40-60 ppb (15-20 ppb) during pre-monsoon (monsoon) months over northern and western parts and peninsular India. A prominent increase during May is noted over the northern region, especially over the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP). These seasonal variations are linked to solar radiation (SR), temperature, low-level circulation, and boundary layer height (BLH). CAMSRA-based surface ozone shows increasing trends across all four regions (north, east, west, and south India) and also India as a whole (0.069 ppb year-1, p = 0.001) with highest trends over the eastern region. Furthermore, principal component analysis (PCA) reveals that the first (second) mode shows a high percentage variance explained, ranging between 30 and 50% (10-20%). The corresponding PC-1 time series exhibits a notable increase in the surface ozone over south and central India, which corroborates the trend obtained through the area averaged time series. The second mode (PC-2) indicates prominent interannual variability over the IGP (southern India) in the pre-monsoon (post-monsoon). During the monsoon season, an interesting dipole pattern is noticeable, which closely resembles the active and break spell patterns of the Indian summer monsoon. Further, we quantify the weightage of precursors and meteorological parameters on surface ozone concentrations. The analysis suggests that PC1 of surface ozone is strongly influenced by CO and NOx (the precursors) while meteorology seems to dominate the PC2 during the pre-monsoon season. Overall, the results indicate that changes in the precursors or meteorological conditions have significant influences on the surface ozone concentrations across India.

Ionospheric perturbation during the South American total solar eclipse on 14th December 2020 revealed with the Chilean GPS eyeball.

The influence of the South American total solar eclipse of 14th December 2020 on the ionosphere is studied by using the continuous Chilean Global Positioning System (GPS) sites across the totality path. The totality path with eclipse magnitude 1.012 passed through the Villarrica (Lon. 72.2308°W and Lat. 39.2820°S) in south Chile during 14:41:02.0 UTC to 17:30:58.1 UTC and maximum occurred ~ 16:03:49.5 UTC around the local noon. The vertical total electron content (VTEC) derived by GPS sites across the totality path for two PRN's 29 and 31 show almost 20-40% of reduction with reference to ambient values. The percentage reduction was maximum close to totality site and decreases smoothly on both sides of totality sites. Interestingly, the atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs) with a period ~ 30-60 min obtained using wavelet analysis of VTEC timeseries show the presence of strong AGWs at the GPS sites located north of the totality line. But the AGWs do not show any significant effect on the VTEC values to these sites. Our analysis suggests, possibly an interplay between variability in the background plasma density and eclipse-generated AGWs induced plasma density perturbation could explain the observations.

Ionospheric monitoring with the Chilean GPS eyeball during the South American total solar eclipse on 2nd July 2019.

The impact of total solar eclipse of July 2, 2019 on the Ionosphere is studied using 24 Chilean GPS stations north-south of the totality path. The total solar eclipse passed through Coquimbo region from ~ 16:38 CLT (~ 20:38 UTC) to ~ 16:40 CLT (~ 20:40 UTC) and maximum eclipse was observed ~ 16:39 CLT (~ 20:39 UTC). The total electron content (TEC) derived from GPS signals shows peculiar features. At the totality stations TEC variations are small (~ 0.39 TECu), but it shows significant decrease (maximum ~ 2.24 TECu) for stations located south and increase (maximum ~ 3.89 TECu) for the stations located north of totality of the surface. The wavelet analysis of VTEC timeseries shows the presence of strong atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs) of duration ~ 30 to 60 min at the stations located north of totality. Thus, the results suggest an interplay between eclipse effect on the ionosphere plasma density and eclipse generated AGWs induced plasma density perturbation provided the peculiar features.

Anomalous variations of VLF sub-ionospheric signal and Mesospheric Ozone prior to 2015 Gorkha Nepal Earthquake.

The subject of pre-earthquake ionospheric signatures has always been contentious and debatable. Some of the previous reports have documented unforeseen and unusual variations in some of the atmospheric and ionospheric parameters well before an earthquake. Here, we analyze the ionospheric response from the Indian Subcontinent to Nepal Gorkha Earthquakes occurred between April and May 2015, which were the most powerful and disastrous natural calamities in past ~80 years over the Himalayan region left ~9000 causalities and more than ~20000 people injured with the property damage of the order of several billion dollars. In view of severe earthquakes occurrences, their prior information on the shorter time scales are warranted for mitigation of associated disasters. Here, we report for the first time, a case which shows a strong link in anomalous variations between VLF sub-ionospheric signal and mesospheric ozone prior to both April 25, 2015 (Mw = 7.8) earthquake and its biggest aftershock on May 12, 2015 (Mw = 7.3). Observations show an unusual variation in VLF signals amplitude /shift in terminator time (TT) strongly linked with positive (negative) mesospheric ozone anomaly in D-region altitudes prior to the Gorkha Nepal earthquakes. It is surmised that simultaneous continuous observations of both VLF waves and mesospheric ozone can be considered as an important tool to identify the prior earthquake signatures in the vicinity of the extremely earthquake-prone zone such as Himalayan region. In this context, the current report opens up a new dimension in lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling during the earthquake preparation processes itself.

North Atlantic controls on wintertime warm extremes and aridification trends in the Middle East.

The Middle East is one of the most water stressed regions in the world, receiving the majority of its hydrological input during the winter, in the form of highly variable and scattered precipitation. The persistence of wintertime anticyclonic conditions over the region can deflect storm tracks and result in extended spells of exceptionally hot weather, favoring prolonged droughts and posing a major threat to the already fragile hydrological equilibrium of the Middle East. Despite their potential impacts on water-security, winter warm spells (WWS's) have received far less attention than their summer counterparts, and the climatic drivers leading to WWS's onset are still largely unexplored. Here, we investigate their relationship with the internal modes of variability in the Atlantic Ocean, already known to influence winter circulation and extremes in Eurasia and Northern America. We show that the occurrence of WWS's is strongly correlated with Atlantic variability over decadal time scales. To explain this correlation, we propose a teleconnection mechanism linking Atlantic variability to WWS's via the propagation of Rossby waves from the North Atlantic pool, and the mediation of the Mediterranean circulation - thereby providing a basis to better predict future warming and aridification trends in the Middle East.