The effects of coronal holes on the propagation of solar energetic protons.

The accurate prediction of the start of a Solar Energetic Particle Event (SEP) is a high priority for space weather forecasters. The Space Environment Center (SEC) has recorded parameters related to SEPs since 1976, and that list includes a total of 134 events for the period 1976-1997. The onset times of individual events are variable, especially SEPs originating from the solar eastern hemisphere. An examination of the data shows the full set can be divided into two families--those that begin at the geosynchronous satellite at a time consistent with what would be expected for activity from a given heliolongitude, and those whose onset is later than what accepted forecast techniques would predict. There are 21 "long onset" events in this historical record. Seeking to understand what factors distinguished the slow-to-arrive events, Helium I 1083.0 nm observations were examined for the presence of coronal holes at the times of the SEPs. It was found that all SEPs with long onset times had a coronal hole situated between the flare site and the footpoint of the interplanetary magnetic field line connecting to Earth (Kunches and Zwickl, 1997 Solar-Terrestrial Predictions-V, Hiraiso Solar-Terrestrial Research Center, Ibaraki, Japan). This coronal hole configuration is important for accurate predictions, although the hole may serve as merely a proxy for the plasma conditions that actually affect the propagation and acceleration of the protons. Since coronal holes are easily identifiable using Helium I and other wavelengths, operational forecasters can employ this technique to improve their predictions of SEPs.

Prediction and evaluation of solar particle events based on precursor information.

Protection from the radiation effects of solar particle events for deep space mission crews requires a warning system to observe solar flares and predict subsequent charged particle fluxes. Such a system relates precursor information observed in each flare to the intensity, delay, and duration of the subsequent Solar Particle Event (SPE) at other locations in the solar system. A warning system of this type is now in operation at the NOAA Space Environment Services Center in Boulder, Colorado for support of space missions. It has been used to predict flare particle fluxes at the earth for flares of Solar Cycle 22. The flare parameters used and the effectiveness of the current warning system, based on Solar Cycle 22 experience, are presented, with an examination of the shortcomings. Needed improvements to the system include more complete observations of solar activity, especially information on the occurrences of solar mass ejections; and consideration of the effects of propagation conditions in the solar corona and interplanetary medium. Requirements for solar observations and forecasting systems on board the spacecraft are discussed.

Strategies for dealing with solar particle events in missions beyond the magnetosphere.

For long duration missions beyond the magnetosphere, the hazards posed by solar particle events (SPE) require the development of new strategies to minimize both the radiation dose and the effects. Potential strategies include the development of improved short-term forecasting of SPE through better observations and research, consideration of HZE particles in real-time forecasting and monitoring, improved knowledge of the biological effects of the particles involved in SPE, and the development of methods for combining SPE forecasts with temporary shielding and chemical countermeasures. Evaluation of present capabilities and the identification of areas of further research to achieve the necessary capabilities are discussed.