Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic: Mortality impacts in Poland versus European Union.

With COVID-19 moving toward an endemic phase, it is worthwhile to identify lessons from the pandemic that can promote the effective strengthening of national health systems. We look at a single country, Poland, and compare it with the European Union (EU) to contrast approaches and outcomes. Among possible relevant indices, we examine characteristics of COVID-19-related mortality and excess all-cause mortality from March 2020 to February 2022. We demonstrate that both the numbers of COVID-related deaths and all-cause deaths in Poland were much higher than the EU average for most months in the study period. We juxtapose the percentage of fully vaccinated population and cumulative COVID-19 deaths per million people for EU Member States and show that typically higher vaccination rates are accompanied by lower mortality. We also show that, in addition to medical science, the use of a risk science toolbox would have been valuable in the management of the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland. Better and more widespread understanding of risk perception of the pandemic and the COVID-19 vaccines would have improved managing vaccine hesitancy, potentially leading to more effective pro-vaccination measures.

Model-based assessment of flood generation mechanisms over Poland: The roles of precipitation, snowmelt, and soil moisture excess.

Hydrometeorological variability, such as changes in extreme precipitation, snowmelt, or soil moisture excess, in Poland can lead to fluvial flooding. In this study we employed the dataset covering components of the water balance with a daily time step at the sub-basin level over the country for 1952-2020. The data set was derived from the previously calibrated and validated Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for over 4000 sub-basins. We applied the Mann Kendall test and circular statistics-based approach on annual maximum floods and various potential flood drivers to estimate the trend, seasonality, and relative importance of each driver. In addition, two sub-periods (1952-1985 and 1986-2020) were considered to examine changes in flood mechanism in the recent decades. We show that floods in the northeast Poland were decreasing, while in the south the trend showed a positive behavior. Moreover, the snowmelt is a primary driver of flooding across the country, followed by soil moisture excess and precipitation. The latter seemed to be the dominant driver only in a small, mountain-dominated region in the south. Soil moisture excess gained importance mainly in the northern part, suggesting that the spatial pattern of flood generation mechanisms is also governed by other features. We also found a strong signal of climate change in large parts of northern Poland, where snowmelt is losing importance in the second sub-period in favor of soil moisture excess, which can be explained by the temperature warming and diminishing role of snow processes.

Covid-19, and the climate change and biodiversity emergencies.

This paper addresses the question, can lessons be learnt by studying the responses to COVID-19 and the human-induced climate change and loss of biodiversity emergencies? It is well recognized that to successfully address each of these issues requires sound scientific knowledge based on strong national and international research programs, cooperation between the research community and policy makers, national, regional and global evidence-based policies and coordinated actions, an informed and receptive public, and political will. A key question is how research and innovation can most effectively inform decision-making leading to cost-effective and socially acceptable action on pandemics, climate change and loss of biodiversity. This paper first describes how the COVID-19 pandemic has been addressed compared to the loss of biodiversity, and climate change, and then considers the use of scientific knowledge for policy-making and communication with the public. The paper then discusses human health and the natural environment as a global responsibility, and concludes on the need for an enhanced virtuous set of interactions between science, economy, politics and people.

Floods and the COVID-19 pandemic-A new double hazard problem.

The coincidence of floods and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a genuine multihazard problem. Since the beginning of 2020, many regions around the World have been experiencing this double hazard of serious flooding and the pandemic. There have been 70 countries with flood events occurring after detection of the country's first COVID-19 case and hundreds of thousands of people have been evacuated. The main objective of this article is to assess challenges that arise from complex intersections between the threat multipliers and to provide guidance on how to address them effectively. We consider the limitations of our knowledge including "unknown unknowns." During emergency evacuation, practicing social distancing can be very difficult. However, people are going to take action to respond to rising waters, even if it means breaking quarantine. This is an emergency manager's nightmare scenario: two potentially serious emergencies happening at once. During this unprecedented year (2020), we are experiencing one of the most challenging flood seasons we have seen in a while. Practical examples of issues and guides for managing floods and COVID-19 are presented. We feel that a new approach is needed in dealing with multiple hazards. Our main messages are: a resilience approach is needed whether in response to floods or a pandemic; preparation is vital, in addition to defense; the responsible actors must be prepared with actions plans and command structure, while the general population must be involved in the discussions so that they are aware of the risk and the reasons for the actions they must take. This article is categorized under:Engineering Water > Methods.

Variability of global mean annual temperature is significantly influenced by the rhythm of ocean-atmosphere oscillations.

While global warming has been evolving over several decades, in particular years there have been considerable deviations of global temperature from the underlying trend. These could be explained by climate variability patterns and, in particular, by the major interplays of atmospheric and oceanic processes that generate variations in the global climatic system. Here we show, in a simple and straightforward way, that a rhythm of the major ocean-atmosphere oscillations, such as the ENSO and IPO in the Pacific as well as the AMO in the Atlantic, is indeed meaningfully influencing the global mean annual temperature. We construct time series of residuals of the global temperature from the medium-term (5-year) running averages and show that these largely follow the rhythm of residuals of three basic ocean-atmosphere oscillation modes (ENSO, IPO and AMO) from the 5-year running averages. We find meaningful correlations between analyzed climate variability and deviations of global mean annual temperature residuals that are robust across various datasets and assumptions and explain over 70% of the annual temperature variability in terms of residuals from medium-term averages.

Distribution pattern of Tugai forests species diversity and their relationship to environmental factors in an arid area of China.

Ecological restoration of degraded riparian Tugai forests is a key driver to combat desertification in arid regions. Previous studies have focused mainly on changes in groundwater as the underlying mechanisms of Tugai forest's decline. We evaluated species composition and diversity of Tugai forest and their relationship to groundwater, soil salinity, and soil nutrient. Using 73 quadrats (100 m × 100 m) from 13 transects located perpendicularly to river in the upper reaches of the Tarim River. Eighteen plant species belonging to sixteen genera and eight families were recorded, and the dominant species included Populus euphratica, Phragmites communis, and Tamarix ramosissima. Three P. euphratica stand ages were detected: young stand, mature stand, and old stand. There were significant differences in species diversity, groundwater depth, groundwater salinity, distance from the quadrat to the river channel, soil moisture content, pH, electrical conductivity, total salt, Cl-, SO42-, Ca2-, Mg2+, Na+, K+, soil organic carbon, and soil organic matter across the stand ages. Seven species were identified as indicators of the three stand ages. Redundancy analysis indicated that the Tugai forest diversity indices were negatively correlated with groundwater depth, groundwater salinity, and distance from the river, and positively associated with electrical conductivity, total salt, pH, Cl-, SO42-, CO32-, soil organic matter, soil organic carbon, and soil moisture content. Plant diversity was the highest at 3-6 m groundwater depth, followed by 0-3 m and then 6-9 m, with the lowest recorded at > 9 m. The appropriate groundwater depth for herbs was about 1-4 m, whereas the depth for trees and shrubs was about 3-6 m. The groundwater depth < 6 m was deemed suitable for the growth of desert riparian forests. This results provide a scientific reference for the ecological restoration and protection for Tugai forests in arid areas.

Tens of thousands additional deaths annually in cities of China between 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming.

The increase in surface air temperature in China has been faster than the global rate, and more high temperature spells are expected to occur in future. Here we assess the annual heat-related mortality in densely populated cities of China at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming. For this, the urban population is projected under five SSPs, and 31 GCM runs as well as temperature-mortality relation curves are applied. The annual heat-related mortality is projected to increase from 32.1 per million inhabitants annually in 1986-2005 to 48.8-67.1 per million for the 1.5 °C warming and to 59.2-81.3 per million for the 2.0 °C warming, taking improved adaptation capacity into account. Without improved adaptation capacity, heat-related mortality will increase even stronger. If all 831 million urban inhabitants in China are considered, the additional warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C will lead to more than 27.9 thousand additional heat-related deaths, annually.

Impacts of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming on winter snow depth in Central Asia.

Snow depth plays an essential role in the water and energy balance of the land surface. It is of special importance in arid and semi-arid regions of Central Asia. Owing to the limited availability of field observations, the spatial and temporal variations of snow depth are still poorly known. Using the Japanese 55-year (JRA-55) and the ERA-Interim reanalysis snow depth products, we considered four global climate models (GCMs) applied in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), examining how they represent snow depth in Central Asia during the period 1986-2005 in terms of spatial and temporal characteristics. We also investigated changes of winter (January-March) snow depth in Central Asia, at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Finally, the joint probabilistic behavior of winter temperature and precipitation at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming are investigated using the kernel density estimator (KDE). The result shows that the snow depth climatology of Central Asia is generally well simulated in both spatial pattern and temporal (inter-annual and inter-seasonal) pattern. All models approximately simulate the winter maximum and the summer minimum values of snow depth but tend to overestimate the amplitude during October-December. Only the trend in HadGEM2-ES matches fairly well to the JRA-55 reanalysis snow depth. When comparing the projections of spatial distribution of winter snow depth, distinctive spatial pattern is noted at both 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels, when the snow depth is shown to increase in northeastern and to decrease in midwestern regions of Central Asia. According to the joint probability distributions of precipitation and temperature, Central Asia will tend to experience a warmer and wetter winter at both 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels, which can be associated with an increase in snow depth in the northeastern regions.

Drought losses in China might double between the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming.

We project drought losses in China under global temperature increase of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C, based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a cluster analysis method, and "intensity-loss rate" function. In contrast to earlier studies, to project the drought losses, we predict the regional gross domestic product under shared socioeconomic pathways instead of using a static socioeconomic scenario. We identify increasing precipitation and evapotranspiration pattern for the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming above the preindustrial at 2020-2039 and 2040-2059, respectively. With increasing drought intensity and areal coverage across China, drought losses will soar. The estimated loss in a sustainable development pathway at the 1.5 °C warming level increases 10-fold in comparison with the reference period 1986-2005 and nearly threefold relative to the interval 2006-2015. However, limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 °C can reduce the annual drought losses in China by several tens of billions of US dollars, compared with the 2.0 °C warming.

Projections of actual evapotranspiration under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios in sandy areas in northern China.

Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is an essential component of Earth's global energy balance and water cycle. The Paris Agreement aspires to limit global mean surface warming to <2 °C and no >1.5 °C relative to preindustrial levels. However, it is uncertain how this global level will impact the shifts in the extents of sandy areas caused by global desertification. Using Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) datasets and advection-aridity models, we investigated the spatiotemporal features of ETa in sandy areas in northern China under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C. The four climate models indicated significant increases in ETa in arid areas across northwestern China. Over time, the ETa value under only the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) emission scenario increased towards a plateau and significantly increased in the other three emission scenarios (P < 0.01) under global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C. In terms of the spatial variations, ETa showed an increasing trend in all seasons except winter. The maximum ETa was 84.61 mm, and high values were mainly located in the southeast of the study area. Precipitation and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) showed good correlations with ETa in the sandy areas in northern China. The sandy areas in northern China showed decreasing trends (0.45 km2/a) from 1980 to 2015. Under global warming of 2.0 °C (2040-2059) relative to that of 1.5 °C (2020-2039), the area of sandy land will increase at a rate of 27.04 km2 per decade (P < 0.01); after this period, the sandy land area in northern China may gradually stabilize, with a trend of 0.02 km2/a (2047-2100). Early efforts to achieve the 1.5 °C temperature goal could therefore markedly reduce the likelihood that large regions will face substantial global desertification and the related impacts.

Comprehensive approach to the reduction of river flood risk: Case study of the Upper Vistula Basin.

The paper examines options for river flood risk reduction in the Upper Vistula Basin located partly in the Carpathian Mountains in Poland. Projections of high-flow indices for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 generally indicate small future increases, although the projected flow changes vary highly both across the study basin as well as among climate models. An overview of twentieth-century catchment and channel changes indicates that some of them decreased and others increased the rapidity of runoff but they largely reduced availability of sediment for fluvial transport, hence inducing bed incision and bank erosion that create risk to roads and bridges. Traditional methods of flood protection in the basin encompassed large structural defences such as river channelization and flood embankments. These have limited floodwater retention within floodplains and accelerated flood runoff, shifting flood hazard downstream rather than reducing it. A range of alternative approaches to reducing future flood risk are thus proposed and examples of their application in southern Poland are described. These approaches include river restoration measures aimed to reduce erosional potential of flood flows and increase channel and floodplain retention of floodwater, as well as grassroots initiatives promoting preparedness for flooding at the community level. There is an increasing need to change the existing paradigm that flood-control measures should be based on fast evacuation of floodwater that, in turn, was associated with a significant reduction in floodwater retention on the valley floors. Alternative approaches discussed in this paper extend the roster of flood risk reduction strategies and contribute to a gradual paradigm change.