External validation and calibration of risk equations for prediction of diabetic kidney diseases among patients with type 2 diabetes in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: Most existing risk equations for predicting/stratifying individual diabetic kidney disease (DKD) risks were developed using relatively dated data from selective and homogeneous trial populations comprising predominately Caucasian type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients. We seek to adapt risk equations for prediction of DKD progression (microalbuminuria, macroalbuminuria, and renal failure) using empiric data from a real-world population with T2D in Taiwan. METHODS: Risk equations from three well-known simulation models: UKPDS-OM2, RECODe, and CHIME models, were adapted. Discrimination and calibration were determined using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), a calibration plot (slope and intercept), and the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino (GND) test. Recalibration was performed for unsatisfactory calibration (p-value of GND test < 0.05) by adjusting the baseline hazards of risk equations to address risk variations among patients. RESULTS: The RECODe equations for microalbuminuria and macroalbuminuria showed moderate discrimination (AUROC: 0.62 and 0.76) but underestimated the event risks (calibration slope > 1). The CHIME equation had the best discrimination for renal failure (AUROCs from CHIME, UKPDS-OM2 and RECODe: 0.77, 0.60 and 0.64, respectively). All three equations overestimated renal failure risk (calibration slope < 1). After rigorous updating, the calibration slope/intercept of the recalibrated RECODe for predicting microalbuminuria (0.87/0.0459) and macroalbuminuria (1.10/0.0004) risks as well as the recalibrated CHIME equation for predicting renal failure risk (0.95/-0.0014) were improved. CONCLUSIONS: Risk equations for prediction of DKD progression in real-world Taiwanese T2D patients were established, which can be incorporated into a multi-state simulation model to project and differentiate individual DKD risks for supporting timely interventions and health economic research.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease risk with GLP-1 receptor agonists and SGLT-2 inhibitors in type 2 diabetes: a nationwide nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Non-alcoholic fatty liver diseases (NAFLDs)/non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are the most common liver disorders among patients with type 2 diabetes. Newer classes of glucose-lowering agents (GLAs), such as glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2is), have been shown to improve liver-related biomarkers. However, their effects on the development of NAFLD/NASH remain inconclusive. METHODS: A nested case-control study was conducted using Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database for 2011-2018. Patients aged ≥ 40 years, diagnosed with type 2 diabetes, having stable non-insulin GLA use, and without NAFLD/NASH history were included. Patients with incident NAFLD/NASH were matched up to 10 randomly sampled controls based on individual's age, gender, cohort entry date, type 2 diabetes diagnosis date, and disease risk score. Conditional logistic regression analyses were employed to estimate the association between liver risk and treatment exposure. Dose-response analysis was also performed. RESULTS: There were 621,438 study patients included for analysis. During 1.8 years of median follow-up, the incidence of NAFLD/NASH was 2.7 per 1000 person-years. After matching, 5,730 incident NAFLD cases (mean age: 57.6 years, male: 53.2%) and 45,070 controls (57.7 years, 52.7%) were identified. Using GLP-1RAs or SGLT2is was associated with an insignificantly lower NAFLD/NASH risk (i.e., odds ratios [95% CIs]: 0.84 [0.46-1.52] and 0.85 [0.63-1.14], respectively) and increased cumulative SGLT2i doses were significantly associated with a reduced NAFLD/NASH risk (0.61 [0.38-0.97]). CONCLUSION: GLP-1RA and SGLT2i therapies in type 2 diabetes patients might prevent NAFLD/NASH development, with a significantly lower risk related to greater treatment exposure.

Longitudinal economic burden of incident complications among metabolic syndrome populations.

BACKGROUND: This study quantifies the longitudinal economic burden for a wide spectrum of incident complications, metabolic syndrome (MS)-related risk factors, and comorbidities in patients with MS. METHODS: This retrospective study utilized linked data from the 2013 National Health Interview Survey and the 2012-2021 National Health Insurance Research Database to identify MS individuals and their characteristics. The incidence rate of each complication was calculated as the number of complication events in the study period divided by the total person-years during follow-up. The healthcare costs of complications were analyzed using a generalized estimating equation model to determine the cost impact of complications after adjustment for patients' characteristics. Sensitivity analyses on variables with high missing rates (i.e., cause of death, body mass index) were performed. RESULTS: Among 837 identified MS individuals over 8.28 (± 1.35) years of follow-up, the most frequent complications were microvascular diseases (incidence rate for nephropathy/retinopathy/neuropathy: 6.49/2.64/2.08 events per 100 person-years), followed by cardiovascular diseases (2.47), peripheral vascular diseases (2.01), and cancers (1.53). Death was the costliest event (event-year cost per person: USD 16,429) and cancers were the most expensive complications (USD 9,127-11,083 for non-MS- and MS-related cancers). Developing non-MS/MS-related cancers, cardiovascular diseases, and obesity-related medical conditions increased annual costs by 273% (95% CI: 181-397%)/175% (105-269%), 159% (118-207%), and 140% (84-214%), respectively. Microvascular diseases had the lowest cost impact on annual costs (i.e., 27% [17-39%]/27% [11-46%]/24% [11-37%] increases for nephropathy/neuropathy/retinopathy, respectively). Having existing comorbidities increased annual costs by 20% (osteoarthritis) to 108% (depression). Having morbid obesity (i.e., body mass index ≥ 35 kg/m2) increased annual costs by 58% (30-91%). CONCLUSIONS: The economic burden from costly incident complications (i.e., cardiovascular diseases, peripheral vascular diseases, cancers), MS-related risk factors (i.e., morbid obesity), and comorbidities (i.e., depression) highlight the urgent need for early intervention to prevent MS and its progression. The comprehensive cost estimates reported in this study can facilitate the parameterization of economic analyses to identify cost-effective interventions for these patients.

Adaptation of risk prediction equations for cardiovascular outcomes among patients with type 2 diabetes in real-world settings: a cross-institutional study using common data model approach.

OBJECTIVE: To adapt risk prediction equations for myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and heart failure (HF) among patients with type 2 diabetes in real-world settings using cross-institutional electronic health records (EHRs) in Taiwan. METHODS: The EHRs from two medical centers, National Cheng Kung University Hospital (NCKUH; 11,740 patients) and National Taiwan University Hospital (NTUH; 20,313 patients), were analyzed using the common data model approach. Risk equations for MI, stroke, and HF from UKPDS-OM2, RECODe, and CHIME models were adapted for external validation and recalibration. External validation was assessed by (1) discrimination, evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and (2) calibration, evaluated by calibration slopes and intercepts and the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino (GND) test. Recalibration was conducted for unsatisfactory calibration (p-value of GND test < 0.05) by adjusting the baseline hazards of original equations to address variations in patients' cardiovascular risks across institutions. RESULTS: The CHIME risk equations had acceptable discrimination (AUROC: 0.71-0.79) and better calibration than that for UKPDS-OM2 and RECODe, although the calibration remained unsatisfactory. After recalibration, the calibration slopes/intercepts of the CHIME-MI, CHIME-stroke, and CHIME-HF risk equations were 0.9848/- 0.0008, 1.1003/- 0.0046, and 0.9436/0.0063 in the NCKUH population and 1.1060/- 0.0011, 0.8714/0.0030, and 1.0476/- 0.0016 in the NTUH population, respectively. All the recalibrated risk equations showed satisfactory calibration (p-values of GND tests ≥ 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: We provide valid risk prediction equations for MI, stroke, and HF outcomes in Taiwanese type 2 diabetes populations. A framework for adapting risk equations across institutions is also proposed.

Differential Effects of Type 2 Diabetes Treatment Regimens on Diabetes Distress and Depressive Symptoms in the Glycemia Reduction Approaches in Diabetes: A Comparative Effectiveness Study (GRADE).

OBJECTIVE: We evaluated whether adding basal insulin to metformin in adults with early type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) would increase emotional distress relative to other treatments. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The Glycemia Reduction Approaches in Diabetes: A Comparative Effectiveness Study (GRADE) of adults with T2DM of <10 years' duration, HbA1c 6.8-8.5%, and taking metformin monotherapy randomly assigned participants to add insulin glargine U-100, sulfonylurea glimepiride, the glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist liraglutide, or the dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor sitagliptin. The Emotional Distress Substudy enrolled 1,739 GRADE participants (mean [SD] age 58.0 [10.2] years, 32% female, 56% non-Hispanic White, 18% non-Hispanic Black, 17% Hispanic) and assessed diabetes distress and depressive symptoms every 6 months. Analyses examined differences at 1 year and over the 3-year follow-up. RESULTS: Across treatments, diabetes distress (-0.24, P < 0.0001) and depressive symptoms (-0.67, P < 0.0001) decreased over 1 year. Diabetes distress was lower at 1 year for the glargine group than for the other groups combined (-0.10, P = 0.002). Diabetes distress was also lower for liraglutide than for glimepiride or sitagliptin (-0.10, P = 0.008). Over the 3-year follow-up, there were no significant group differences in total diabetes distress; interpersonal diabetes distress remained lower for those assigned to liraglutide. No significant differences were observed for depressive symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to expectations, this randomized trial found no evidence for a deleterious effect of basal insulin on emotional distress. Glargine lowered diabetes distress modestly at 1 year rather than increasing it. Liraglutide also reduced diabetes distress at 1 year. Results can inform treatment decisions for adults with early T2DM.

Impact of Glucose-Lowering Medications on Health-Related Quality of Life in the Glycemia Reduction Approaches in Diabetes: A Comparative Effectiveness Study (GRADE).

OBJECTIVE: Diabetes is associated with reduced health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Information on the relationship between HRQoL and glucose-lowering medications in recently diagnosed type 2 diabetes (T2D) is limited. We assessed changes in HRQoL in participants with T2D receiving metformin plus one of four glucose-lowering medications in Glycemia Reduction Approaches in Diabetes: A Comparative Effectiveness Study (GRADE). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A total of 5,047 participants, baseline mean age 57 years, with <10 years T2D duration and glycated hemoglobin level 6.8-8.5% and taking metformin monotherapy, were randomly assigned to glargine, glimepiride, liraglutide, or sitagliptin. HRQoL was evaluated at baseline for 4,885 participants, and at years 1, 2, and 3, with use of the self-administered version of the Quality of Well-being Scale (QWB-SA) and SF-36 physical (PCS) and mental (MCS) component summary scales. Linear models were used to analyze changes in HRQoL over time in intention-to-treat analyses. RESULTS: None of the medications worsened HRQoL. There were no differences in QWB-SA or MCS by treatment group at any time point. PCS scores improved with liraglutide versus other groups at year 1 only. Greater weight loss during year 1 explained half the improvement in PCS scores with liraglutide versus glargine and glimepiride. Liraglutide participants in the upper tertile of baseline BMI showed the greatest improvement in PCS scores at year 1. CONCLUSIONS: Adding liraglutide to metformin in participants within 10 years of T2D diagnosis showed improvement in the SF-36 PCS in comparisons with the other medications at 1 year, which was no longer significant at years 2 and 3. Improvement was related to weight loss and baseline BMI.

Lower risks of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma with GLP-1RAs in type 2 diabetes: A nationwide cohort study using target trial emulation framework.

BACKGROUND: To assess the association of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with the use of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) versus long-acting insulins (LAIs), which are the two commonly prescribed injectable glucose-lowering agents (GLAs) for patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) after the failure of multiple oral GLAs. METHODS: We emulated a target trial using the nationwide data of a Taiwanese cohort with T2D. Incident new users of GLP-1RAs and LAIs during 2013-2018 were identified, and propensity score (PS) matching was applied to ensure between-group comparability in baseline patient characteristics. The primary outcome was the composite liver disease including cirrhosis or HCC. Each patient was followed until the occurrence of a study outcome, death, or the end of 2019, whichever came first. Subdistribution hazard models were employed to assess the treatment-outcome association. Sensitivity (e.g., stabilized inverse probability of treatment weighting analysis, time-dependent analysis), E-value, and negative control outcome analyses were performed to examine the robustness of study findings. RESULTS: We included 7171 PS-matched pairs of GLP-1RA and LAI users with no significant between-group differences at baseline. Compared with LAIs, the use of GLP-1RAs was associated with significantly reduced risks of composite liver disease (subdistribution hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 0.56 [0.42-0.76]), cirrhosis (0.59 [0.43-0.81]), and HCC (0.47 [0.24-0.93]). Results were consistent across sensitivity analyses and among patients with different baseline characteristics. CONCLUSION: Among T2D patients who require injectable GLAs, the use of GLP-1RAs versus LAIs was associated with lower risks of cirrhosis and HCC.

Chronic kidney outcomes associated with GLP-1 receptor agonists versus long-acting insulins among type 2 diabetes patients requiring intensive glycemic control: a nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Effectiveness of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) versus long-acting insulins (LAIs) on preventing progressive chronic kidney outcomes is uncertain for type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients requiring intensive glycemic control. This study aimed to evaluate comparative effectiveness of GLP-1RA versus LAI therapies on progressive chronic kidney outcomes among patients having poor glycemic control and requiring these injectable glucose-lowering agents (GLAs). METHODS: 7279 propensity-score-matched pairs of newly stable GLP-1RA and LAI users in 2013-2018 were identified from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database and followed until death or 12/31/2019 (intention-to-treat). Subdistributional hazard model was utilized to assess the comparative effectiveness on a composite renal outcome (i.e., renal insufficiency [eGFR < 15 mL/min/1.73 m2], dialysis-dependent end-stage renal disease [ESRD], or renal death) and its individual components. Sensitivity analyses with the as-treated scenario, PS weighting, high-dimensional PS techniques, using cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) as positive control outcomes, and interaction testing were performed. RESULTS: In primary analyses, subdistribution hazard ratios (95% CIs) for initiating GLP-1RAs versus LAIs for the composite renal outcome, renal insufficiency, dialysis-dependent ESRD, and renal death were 0.39 (0.30-0.51), 0.43 (0.32-0.57), 0.29 (0.20-0.43), and 0.28 (0.15-0.51), respectively. Sensitivity analysis results were consistent with the primary findings. CVD history and the medication possession ratio of prior oral GLAs possessed modification effects on GLP-1RA-associated kidney outcomes. CONCLUSION: Using GLP-1RAs versus LAIs was associated with kidney benefits in T2D patients requiring intensive glycemic control and potentially at high risk of kidney progression. GLP-1RAs should be prioritized to patients with CVDs or adherence to prior oral GLAs to maximize kidney benefits.

Diabetes Care Barriers, Use, and Health Outcomes in Younger Adults With Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes.

Importance: Treatment challenges exist for younger adults with type 1 (T1D) and type 2 diabetes (T2D). Health care coverage, access to, and use of diabetes care are not well delineated in these high-risk populations. Objective: To compare patterns of health care coverage, access to, and use of diabetes care and determine their associations with glycemia among younger adults with T1D and with T2D. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study analyzed data from a survey that was jointly developed by 2 large, national cohort studies: the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth (SEARCH) study, an observational study of individuals with youth-onset T1D or T2D, and the Treatment Options for Type 2 Diabetes in Adolescents and Youth (TODAY) study, a randomized clinical trial (2004-2011) followed by an observational study (2012-2020). The interviewer-directed survey was administered during in-person study visits in both studies between 2017 and 2019. Data analyses were performed between May 2021 and October 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Survey questions addressed health care coverage, usual sources of diabetes care, and frequency of care use. Glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels were assayed in a central laboratory. Patterns of health care factors and HbA1c levels were compared by diabetes type. Results: The analysis included 1371 participants (mean [range] age, 25 [18-36] years; 824 females [60.1%]), of whom 661 had T1D and 250 had T2D from the SEARCH study and 460 had T2D from the TODAY study. Participants had a mean (SD) diabetes duration of 11.8 (2.8) years. More participants with T1D than T2D in both the SEARCH and TODAY studies reported health care coverage (94.7%, 81.6%, and 86.7%), access to diabetes care (94.7%, 78.1%, and 73.4%), and use of diabetes care (88.1%, 80.5%, and 73.6%). Not having health care coverage was associated with significantly higher mean (SE) HbA1c levels in participants with T1D in the SEARCH study (no coverage, 10.8% [0.5%]; public, 9.4% [0.2%]; private, 8.7% [0.1%]; P < .001) and participants with T2D from the TODAY study (no coverage, 9.9% [0.3%]; public, 8.7% [0.2%]; private, 8.7% [0.2%]; P = .004). Medicaid expansion vs without expansion was associated with more health care coverage (participants with T1D: 95.8% vs 90.2%; participants with T2D in SEARCH: 86.1% vs 73.9%; participants with T2D in TODAY: 93.6% vs 74.2%) and lower HbA1c levels (participants with T1D: 9.2% vs 9.7%; participants with T2D in SEARCH: 8.4% vs 9.3%; participants with T2D in TODAY: 8.7% vs 9.3%). The T1D group incurred higher median (IQR) monthly out-of-pocket expenses than the T2D group ($74.50 [$10.00-$309.00] vs $10.00 [$0-$74.50]). Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this study suggested that lack of health care coverage and of an established source of diabetes care were associated with significantly higher HbA1c levels for participants with T1D, but inconsistent results were found for participants with T2D. Increased access to diabetes care (eg, through Medicaid expansion) may be associated with improved health outcomes, but additional strategies are needed, particularly for individuals with T2D.

Value of GLP-1 receptor agonists versus long-acting insulins for type 2 diabetes patients with and without established cardiovascular or chronic kidney diseases: A model-based cost-effectiveness analysis using real-world data.

AIMS: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) versus long-acting insulins (LAIs) in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) using real-world data. METHODS: A Markov model was utilized to estimate healthcare costs (US$) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of receiving treatments over 10 years from the healthcare sector perspective. Model inputs were derived from the analyses of Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database or published literature on Taiwanese T2D populations. Base-case analysis was performed for the overall study cohort and subgroup analyses were stratified by the presence or absence of established cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) or chronic kidney diseases (CKDs). RESULTS: Overall, using GLP-1RAs versus LAIs cost $6,053 per QALY gained. Results were robust across sensitivity and scenario analyses. Among patients with established CVDs and CKDs, GLP-1RA versus LAI therapy saved $673 (cost-saving) and cost $1,675 per QALY gained, respectively. Among patients without established CVDs and CKDs, GLP-1RA versus LAI therapy cost $9,093 and $7,659 per QALY gained, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Using GLP-1RAs versus LAIs for T2D patients represented good economic value in real-world practice. Pronounced economic benefits of GLP-1RA therapy among those with prior CVDs or CKDs support rational treatment decisions and optimal healthcare resource allocation for these patients.

Cost-effectiveness of Novel Macrophage-Regulating Treatment for Wound Healing in Patients With Diabetic Foot Ulcers From the Taiwan Health Care Sector Perspective.

Importance: Diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) and subsequent amputation incur enormous health and economic burdens to patients, health care systems, and societies. As a novel macrophage-regulating drug, ON101 is a breakthrough treatment for DFUs, which demonstrated significant complete wound healing effects in a phase 3 randomized clinical trial, but its economic value remains unknown. Objective: To assess the cost-effectiveness of an ON101 cream added on to general wound care (GWC; ie, conventional treatments for DFUs, which comprised initial and regular foot examinations, ulcer management, comorbidity control, patient education, and multidisciplinary care) vs GWC alone for DFUs from the Taiwan health care sector perspective. Design, Setting, and Participants: This economic evaluation used a hypothetical cohort of patients with diabetes, with characteristics mirroring those of the participants in the ON101 trial. A Markov state-transition simulation model was constructed to estimate costs and health outcomes associated with the ON101 with GWC and GWC alone strategies over a 5-year time horizon, discounting costs and effectiveness at 3% annually. Costs were in 2021 US dollars. Data were sourced from the ON101 trial and supplemented from published literature. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the uncertainty of input parameters and study generalizability. The analysis was designed and conducted from September 1, 2020, to January 31, 2022. Exposures: ON101 with GWC vs GWC alone. Main Outcomes and Measures: DFU-related complications, costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Results: Patients in the hypothetical cohort had a mean age of 57 years and an uninfected DFU of 1 to 25 cm2 that was present for 4 or more weeks with a Wagner grade of 1 or 2. Over 5 years, the ON101 with GWC group vs the GWC alone group experienced more healing events, stayed for a longer time in the healing state, and had fewer infected DFUs, gangrene, and amputations (eg, 2787 additional healing events and 2766 fewer infected DFU, 72 fewer amputation, and 7 fewer gangrene events in the ON101 with GWC group vs GWC alone group). The ON101 with GWC strategy vs GWC alone yielded an additional 0.038 QALYs at an incremental cost of $571, resulting in $14 922/QALY gained. Economic results were most sensitive to healing efficacy, drug cost, and health utility of the healing state. Cost-saving results were observed in patient subgroups with poor glycemic control, larger ulcer sizes, longer ulcer durations, and current smoking. The ON101 with GWC strategy was considered cost-effective in 60% to 82% of model iterations against willingness-to-pay thresholds of $32 787/QALY gained to $98 361/QALY gained. Conclusions and Relevance: In this economic evaluation study using a simulated patient cohort, the ON101 with GWC strategy represented good value compared with GWC alone for patients with DFUs from the Taiwan health care sector perspective and may be prioritized for those with high risks for disease progression of DFUs.

Cost-effectiveness of carotid artery stenting vs endarterectomy: A simulation.

OBJECTIVE: Clinical trials conducted before the introduction of modern medical management to prevent stroke demonstrated that carotid endarterectomy (CEA) and carotid artery stenting (CAS) prevent stroke following transient ischemic attack (TIA). We compared the cost-effectiveness of CEA, CAS, and modern medical management in two secular settings of medical management in individuals with incident TIA and type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Using simulation modeling, our base-case analyses were performed from the healthcare sector perspective over a 20-year time horizon with an annual 3% discount rate applied to both costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Outcomes depended on age, sex, biomarkers associated with cardiovascular risk, and treatment effects based on a validated model of type 2 diabetes. Our simulation population was drawn from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2014 cohort. Costs for modern medical management were based on average wholesale prices, and revascularization costs were derived from published literature. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Compared to all other strategies, historical medical management plus CEA was either cost-saving or cost-effective at a threshold of $100,000 per QALY gained. Modern medical management was cost-effective compared to historical medical management without revascularization at a $100,000 acceptability threshold. However, both revascularization approaches (plus medical management) were cost-saving compared to modern medical management alone. CONCLUSION: Among individuals requiring carotid revascularization, carotid endarterectomy is the cost-effective strategy to treat individuals with type 2 diabetes following a TIA. For individuals for whom revascularization is contraindicated, modern medical therapy is cost-effective.

Restricted Mean Survival Time Analysis to Estimate SGLT2i-Associated Heterogeneous Treatment Effects on Primary and Secondary Prevention of Cardiorenal Outcomes in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes in Taiwan.

Importance: Increasing numbers of post hoc analyses have applied restricted mean survival time (RMST) analysis on the aggregated-level data from clinical trials to report treatment effects, but studies that use individual-level claims data are needed to determine the feasibility of RMST analysis for quantifying treatment effects among patients with type 2 diabetes in routine clinical settings. Objectives: To apply RMST analysis for assessing sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor (SGLT2i)-associated cardiovascular (CV) events and estimating heterogenous treatment effects (HTEs) on CV and kidney outcomes in routine clinical settings. Design, Setting, and Participants: This comparative effectiveness study of Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database examined 21 144 propensity score (PS)-matched pairs of patients with type 2 diabetes with SGLT2i and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor (DPP4i) treatment for assessing CV outcomes, and 19 951 PS-matched pairs of patients with type 2 diabetes with SGLT2i and DPP4i treatment for assessing kidney outcomes. Patients were followed until December 31, 2018. Statistical analysis was performed from August 2021 to April 2022. Exposures: Newly stable SGLT2i or DPP4i use in 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures: Study outcomes were CV events including hospitalization for heart failure (HHF), 3-point major adverse CV events (3P-MACE: nonfatal myocardial infarction [MI], nonfatal stroke, and CV death), 4-point MACE (4P-MACE: HHF and 3P-MACE), and all-cause death, and chronic kidney disease (CKD). RMST and Cox modeling analyses were applied to estimate treatment effects on study outcomes. Results: After PS matching, the baseline patient characteristics were comparable between 21 144 patients with stable SGLT2i use (eg, mean [SD] age: 58.3 [10.7] years; 11 990 [56.7%] male) and 21 144 patients with stable DPP4i use (eg, mean [SD] age: 58.1 [11.6] years; 12 163 [57.5%] male) for assessing CV outcomes, and those were also comparable between 19 951 patients with stable SGLT2i use (eg, mean [SD] age: 58.1 [10.7] years; 11 231 [56.2%] male) and 19 951 patients with stable DPP4i use (eg, mean [SD] age: 57.9 [11.5] years; 11 340 [56.8%] male) for assessing kidney outcome. The 2-year difference in RMST between patients with SGLT2i use and patients with DPP4i use was 4.99 (95% CI, 3.56-6.42) days for HHF, 4.12 (95% CI, 2.72-5.52) days for 3P-MACE, 7.72 (95% CI, 5.83-9.61) days for 4P-MACE, 1.26 (95% CI, 0.47-2.04) days for MI, 2.70 (95% CI, 1.57-3.82) days for stroke, 0.69 (95% CI, 0.28-1.11) days for CV death, 6.05 (95% CI, 4.89-7.20) days for all-cause death, and 14.75 (95% CI, 12.99-16.52) days for CKD. Directions of hazard ratios from Cox modeling analyses were consistent with RMST estimates. No association was found between study treatment and the negative control outcome (dental visits for tooth care). Consistent results across sensitivity analyses using high-dimensional PS-matched and PS-weighting approaches supported the validity of primary analysis results. Largest difference in RMST of SGLT2i vs DPP4i use for HHF and CKD was found among patients with established heart failure (30.80 [95% CI, 5.08-56.51] days) and retinopathy (40.43 [95% CI, 31.74-49.13] days), respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: In this comparative effectiveness study, RMST analysis was feasible for translating treatment effects into more clinical intuitive estimates and valuable for quantifying HTEs among diverse patients in routine clinical settings.

National Trends in the Achievement of Recommended Strategies for Stroke Prevention in U.S. Adults With Type 2 Diabetes, 2001-2018.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the national prevalence of and trends in achieving current guideline-recommended treatment goals and pharmacotherapies for primary and secondary prevention of stroke among U.S. adults with type 2 diabetes (T2D). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We performed serial cross-sectional analyses in 4,834 adults aged ≥45 years with T2D who participated in the 2001-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. With stratification by stroke history, we estimated the proportion of adults with T2D who achieved current guideline-recommended strategies for stroke prevention. Preventive strategies for stroke were benchmarked against diabetes care and cardiovascular risk reduction guidelines. RESULTS: Overall in 2001-2018, among those without stroke history, the proportion who achieved primary stroke prevention strategies ranged from 8.4% (95% CI 6.8-10.1) for aspirin/clopidogrel treatment in those with a higher cardiovascular disease risk to 80.5% (78.8-82.2) for nonsmoking. Among those with stroke history, the proportion who achieved secondary stroke prevention strategies ranged from 11.8% (8.7-14.8) for weight control to 80.0% (74.9-84.9) for glycemic control. From 2001 to 2018, among those without stroke history, there was a significant increase in statin therapy (Ptrend < 0.0001), smoking abstinence (Ptrend = 0.01), and ACE inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker treatment for hypertension (Ptrend = 0.04) but a substantial decline in weight control (Ptrend < 0.001). Among those with stroke history, only statin therapy (Ptrend = 0.01) increased significantly over time. CONCLUSIONS: During 2001-2018, the achievement of some current guideline-recommended strategies for stroke prevention among U.S. adults with T2D improved but remains a challenge overall. Efforts are needed to improve implementation of strategies for stroke prevention in this population.

Cost-effectiveness of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors versus dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors among patients with type 2 diabetes with and without established cardiovascular diseases: A model-based simulation analysis using 10-year real-world data and targeted literature review.

AIM: We conducted a model-based economic analysis of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) versus dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4is) in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D), with and without established cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), using 10-year real-world data. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A Markov model was utilized to estimate healthcare costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) over a 10-year simulation time horizon from a healthcare sector perspective, with both costs and QALYs discounted at 3% annually. Model inputs were derived from analyses of Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database or published studies of Taiwanese populations. The primary outcome measure was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Incorporated with our study findings, a targeted literature review was conducted to synthesize updated evidence on the cost-effectiveness of SGLT2is versus DPP4is. RESULTS: Over 10 years, use of SGLT2is versus DPP4is yielded ICERs of $3244 and $4186 per QALY gained for patients with T2D, with and without established CVDs, respectively. Results were robust across a series of sensitivity and scenario analyses, showing ICERs between $-1074 (cost-saving) and $8467 per QALY gained for patients with T2D with established CVDs and between $369 and $37 122 per QALY gained for patients with T2D without established CVDs. CONCLUSIONS: Use of SGLT2is versus DPP4is was highly cost-effective for patients with T2D regardless of their CVD history in real-world clinical practice. Our results extend current evidence by showing SGLT2is as an economically rational alternative over DPP4is for T2D treatment in routine care. Future research is warranted to explore the heterogeneous economic benefits of SGLT2is given diverse patient characteristics in clinical settings.

Development of clinical prediction models for renal and cardiovascular outcomes and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease using time-varying predictors.

AIMS: To develop a set of prediction models for end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), cardiovascular outcomes, and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) using commonly measured clinical variables. METHODS: We studied 1432 participants with T2D and CKD enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort, followed for a median period of 7 years. We used Cox proportional-hazards models to model the six outcomes (ESKD, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), congestive heart failure (CHF), death before ESKD, and all-cause mortality). We internally evaluated these models using concordance and calibration measures. RESULTS: The newly developed six prediction models included 15 predictors: age at diabetes diagnosis, sex, blood pressure, body mass index, hemoglobin A1c, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, urine protein-to-creatinine ratio, estimated glomerular filtration rate, smoking status, and history of stroke, MI, CHF, ESKD, and amputation. The resulting models demonstrated good/strong discrimination (cross-validation C-index range: 0.70 to 0.90) and calibration. CONCLUSIONS: This study provided an internally validated and useful tool for predicting individual adverse outcomes and mortality in patients with T2D and CKD. These models may inform optimal use of targeted health interventions.

Cardiovascular Benefits With Favorable Renal, Amputation and Hypoglycemic Outcomes of SGLT-2 Inhibitors in Type 2 Diabetes From the Asian Perspective: A Population-Based Cohort Study and Systematic Review.

Objective: We assessed the effects of sodium glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) versus dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4is) in a large real-world Asian cohort with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and performed a systematic review with integrating the present study findings to provide up-to-date evidence from the Asian perspective. Methods: New users of SGLT2is or DPP4is were identified from the Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database and followed until 2018. Primary outcomes were hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) and three-point major adverse cardiovascular event (3P-MACE; namely, myocardial infarction [MI], stroke, or cardiovascular death). Other outcomes included all-cause death, chronic kidney disease (CKD), amputation, and hospitalized hypoglycemia. Subdistribution hazard models were employed to assess treatment-associated clinical outcomes. Results: A total of 21,329 SGLT2i and DPP4i propensity-score-matched pairs were analyzed. SGLT2is versus DPP4is showed lower risks of HHF (hazard ratio [95% CI]: 0.52 [0.45-0.59]), 3P-MACE (0.62 [0.55-0.70]), MI (0.63 [0.50-0.79]), stroke (0.60 [0.51-0.70]), all-cause death (0.57 [0.49-0.67]), CKD (0.46 [0.43-0.50]), amputation (0.64 [0.42-0.98]), and hospitalized hypoglycemia (0.54 [0.45-0.64]). Our results were consistent with findings from a systematic review. Conclusion: Among Asian patients with T2D, SGLT2is versus DPP4is showed benefits for several clinical outcomes. More research is warranted to explore the heterogeneous treatment effects of SGLT2is and DPP4is by race/ethnicity.

Three-step matching algorithm to enhance between-group comparability and minimize confounding in comparative effectiveness studies.

We developed a three-step matching algorithm to enhance the between-group comparability for comparative drug effect studies involving prevalent new-users of the newer study drug versus older comparator drug(s). The three-step matching scheme is to match on: (1) index date of initiating the newer study drug to align the cohort entry time between study groups, (2) medication possession ratio measures that consider prior exposure to all older comparator drugs, and (3) propensity scores estimated from potential confounders. Our approach is illustrated with a comparative cardiovascular safety study of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1ra) versus sulfonylurea (SU) in type 2 diabetes patients using Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database 2003-2015. 66% of 3195 GLP-1ra users had previously exposed to SU. The between-group comparability was well-achieved after implementing the matching algorithm (i.e., standardized mean difference < 0.2 for all baseline patient characteristics). Compared to SU, the use of GLP-1ra yielded a significantly reduced risk of the primary composite cardiovascular events (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 0.71 [0.54-0.95], p = 0.022). Our matching scheme can enhance the between-group comparability in prevalent new-user cohort designs to minimize time-related bias, improve confounder adjustment, and ensure the reliability and validity of study findings.

Exploring Structural Uncertainty and Impact of Health State Utility Values on Lifetime Outcomes in Diabetes Economic Simulation Models: Findings from the Ninth Mount Hood Diabetes Quality-of-Life Challenge.

BACKGROUND: Structural uncertainty can affect model-based economic simulation estimates and study conclusions. Unfortunately, unlike parameter uncertainty, relatively little is known about its magnitude of impact on life-years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) in modeling of diabetes. We leveraged the Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge Network, a biennial conference attended by international diabetes modeling groups, to assess structural uncertainty in simulating QALYs in type 2 diabetes simulation models. METHODS: Eleven type 2 diabetes simulation modeling groups participated in the 9th Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge. Modeling groups simulated 5 diabetes-related intervention profiles using predefined baseline characteristics and a standard utility value set for diabetes-related complications. LYs and QALYs were reported. Simulations were repeated using lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence intervals of utility inputs. Changes in LYs and QALYs from tested interventions were compared across models. Additional analyses were conducted postchallenge to investigate drivers of cross-model differences. RESULTS: Substantial cross-model variability in incremental LYs and QALYs was observed, particularly for HbA1c and body mass index (BMI) intervention profiles. For a 0.5%-point permanent HbA1c reduction, LY gains ranged from 0.050 to 0.750. For a 1-unit permanent BMI reduction, incremental QALYs varied from a small decrease in QALYs (-0.024) to an increase of 0.203. Changes in utility values of health states had a much smaller impact (to the hundredth of a decimal place) on incremental QALYs. Microsimulation models were found to generate a mean of 3.41 more LYs than cohort simulation models (P = 0.049). CONCLUSIONS: Variations in utility values contribute to a lesser extent than uncertainty captured as structural uncertainty. These findings reinforce the importance of assessing structural uncertainty thoroughly because the choice of model (or models) can influence study results, which can serve as evidence for resource allocation decisions.HighlightsThe findings indicate substantial cross-model variability in QALY predictions for a standardized set of simulation scenarios and is considerably larger than within model variability to alternative health state utility values (e.g., lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence intervals of utility inputs).There is a need to understand and assess structural uncertainty, as the choice of model to inform resource allocation decisions can matter more than the choice of health state utility values.