Effect of Long-Distance Domestic Travel Ban Policies in Japan on COVID-19 Outbreak Dynamics During Dominance of the Ancestral Strain: Ex Post Facto Retrospective Observation Study.

BACKGROUND: In Japan, long-distance domestic travel was banned while the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 strain was dominant under the first declared state of emergency from March 2020 until the end of May 2020. Subsequently, the "Go To Travel" campaign travel subsidy policy was activated, allowing long-distance domestic travel, until the second state of emergency as of January 7, 2021. The effects of this long-distance domestic travel ban on SARS-CoV-2 infectivity have not been adequately evaluated. OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the effects of the long-distance domestic travel ban in Japan on SARS-CoV-2 infectivity, considering climate conditions, mobility, and countermeasures such as the "Go To Travel" campaign and emergency status. METHODS: We calculated the effective reproduction number R(t), representing infectivity, using the epidemic curve in Kagoshima prefecture based on the empirical distribution of the incubation period and procedurally delayed reporting from an earlier study. Kagoshima prefecture, in southern Japan, has several resorts, with an airport commonly used for transportation to Tokyo or Osaka. We regressed R(t) on the number of long-distance domestic travelers (based on the number of airport limousine bus users provided by the operating company), temperature, humidity, mobility, and countermeasures such as state of emergency declarations and the "Go To Travel" campaign in Kagoshima. The study period was June 20, 2020, through February 2021, before variant strains became dominant. A second state of emergency was not declared in Kagoshima prefecture but was declared in major cities such as Tokyo and Osaka. RESULTS: Estimation results indicated a pattern of declining infectivity with reduced long-distance domestic travel volumes as measured by the number of airport limousine bus users. Moreover, infectivity was lower during the "Go To Travel" campaign and the second state of emergency. Regarding mobility, going to restaurants, shopping malls, and amusement venues was associated with increased infectivity. However, going to grocery stores and pharmacies was associated with decreased infectivity. Climate conditions showed no significant association with infectivity patterns. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this retrospective analysis suggest that the volume of long-distance domestic travel might reduce SARS-CoV-2 infectivity. Infectivity was lower during the "Go To Travel" campaign period, during which long-distance domestic travel was promoted, compared to that outside this campaign period. These findings suggest that policies banning long-distance domestic travel had little legitimacy or rationale. Long-distance domestic travel with appropriate infection control measures might not increase SARS-CoV-2 infectivity in tourist areas. Even though this analysis was performed much later than the study period, if we had performed this study focusing on the period of April or May 2021, it would likely yield the same results. These findings might be helpful for government decision-making in considering restarting a "Go To Travel" campaign in light of evidence-based policy.

Infection control and COVID-19 outbreak training at elderly care facilities.

Fatalities caused by pneumonia and underlying diseases from COVID-19 infection show the highest relative frequency among elderly people. Long-term care facilities for elderly people have continued to be the areas most vulnerable to COVID-19. We examined the effectiveness of training for infection control and COVID-19 at elderly care facilities. After sending questionnaires to all long-term elderly care facilities in Ibaraki prefecture, Japan during January 18-29, 2022, we received useful responses from 98 facilities. Using logistic regression, we regressed a dummy variable for outbreak experience to dummy variables representing routine but partial training, routine training for all staff members, long-term care facilities for elderly people, numbers of nurses, and numbers of residents. Outbreak experiences of two types were inferred, as represented by a dummy variable for a COVID-19 outbreak at the facility, and by a dummy variable for outbreak experience at the facility before COVID-19 was found. Multivariate analysis indicated routine training for all staff members as the most effective, in fact the only effective, countermeasure against COVID-19 outbreak.

Waning COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness in Japan.

As of the end of November, 2021, the rate of completion for second-dose COVID-19 vaccine administration was almost 80% in Japan. We evaluated waning COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness in Japan, controlling for mutated strains, the Olympic Games, and countermeasures. The effective reproduction number R(t) was regressed on current vaccine coverage and data of a certain number of days prior, as well as shares of mutated strains, and an Olympic Games dummy variable along with data of temperature, humidity, mobility, and countermeasures. The study period was February, 2020 through November 4, as of November 25, 2021. Estimation results indicate that vaccine coverage of more than 90 days prior raises R(t) significantly. Especially, vaccine coverage with 90 or 120 days prior cancelled vaccine effectiveness completely. Results indicate significant waning of vaccine effectiveness from 90 days after the second dose.

Attenuation of antibody titer of measles and rubella virus among university students of department of healthcare providers during 2015-2018 in Japan.

BACKGROUND: In Japan, measles elimination was confirmed in March 2015. Nevertheless, some outbreaks with cases imported from abroad were reported even after certification. A large rubella outbreak has been occurring since 2017. This study examines measurement of the speed of attenuation of antibody titer for a measles virus comparison with rubella virus. METHOD: Student subjects born from April 2, 1996 through April 1, 2000 were selected at Ibaraki Prefectural University of Health Sciences for this study: 177 for measles and 114 for rubella. They had available dates of additional immunization and antibodies in the following period and were judged as requiring additional immunization. We used enzyme immunoassay for IgG antibody testing. We regressed post-antibody titers of measles or rubella on pre-antibody titers and functions of duration between inoculation to post-evaluation. Functions of duration were selected according to the adjusted coefficient of determination. RESULTS: For measles, only a linear term of duration or log of duration was found to be significant without the quadratic terms. For rubella, we selected a five-order linear model which indicated that titer after vaccination would converge to 19.2. DISCUSSION: Results demonstrate that measles antibody decreased monotonically. If the pre-antibody titer was 15, vaccination raised titer quickly to 26; then it attenuated by 0.014 per day. Antibody titer is expected to be less than 16, which is the protection level of titer, after 704 days. For rubella, however, when pre-vaccination titer was evaluated at its average, the lower limit was 19.2. Therefore, protection can be maintained for a long time. This difference might reflect some circumstances of outbreaks of the respective diseases. CONCLUSION: This report describes the speed of attenuation and the epidemiological situation. The speed of attenuation can be expected to rise. Therefore, additional vaccination every several years might be necessary to maintain a protection level if a disease is almost eliminated.

Study Elucidating Disinfection at Nursery Schools in Ibaraki, Japan.

Control of infectious diseases requires switching from usual hygiene such as water wiping and cleaning, to control measures including appropriate and aggressive disinfection using 70% alcohol and/or hypochlorous acid depending on the pathogen. Nevertheless, some nursery schools might not understand or select proper disinfectant methods. A survey was administered by the local government of Ibaraki prefecture, Japan in January 2018 to all 456 nursery schools in Ibaraki prefecture. The surveyed items were the number of nursery teachers, usual manual hygiene among children, usual disinfection for lavatories, diaper changing spaces, tables used by children for meals, and classroom floors when there was no vomiting in the facilities and no outbreak in surrounding area. Moreover, it asked about disinfection procedures if children vomited during a community outbreak of gastroenteritis infection. We defined proper use for usual disinfection of a lavatory or diaper changing space as chlorine-based disinfectant including hypochlorous acid or 70% alcohol according to guidelines. Overall, 403 nursery schools responded to the survey. All nursery schools implemented usual hand hygiene. Association between proper disinfection and the size of nursery schools was not significant. Moreover, association between proper disinfection and nursery schools with nurse presence was not found to be significant.

Evaluating Apple Inc Mobility Trend Data Related to the COVID-19 Outbreak in Japan: Statistical Analysis.

BACKGROUND: In Japan, as a countermeasure against the COVID-19 outbreak, both the national and local governments issued voluntary restrictions against going out from residences at the end of March 2020 in preference to the lockdowns instituted in European and North American countries. The effect of such measures can be studied with mobility data, such as data which is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities. OBJECTIVE: We investigate the associations of mobility data provided by Apple Inc and an estimate an an effective reproduction number R(t). METHODS: We regressed R(t) on a polynomial function of daily Apple data, estimated using the whole period, and analyzed subperiods delimited by March 10, 2020. RESULTS: In the estimation results, R(t) was 1.72 when voluntary restrictions against going out ceased and mobility reverted to a normal level. However, the critical level of reducing R(t) to <1 was obtained at 89.3% of normal mobility. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated that Apple mobility data are useful for short-term prediction of R(t). The results indicate that the number of trips should decrease by 10% until herd immunity is achieved and that higher voluntary restrictions against going out might not be necessary for avoiding a re-emergence of the outbreak.

Estimated effectiveness of school closure and voluntary event cancellation as COVID-19 countermeasures in Japan.

BACKGROUND: As countermeasures against the COVID-19 outbreak, sports and entertainment events were canceled (VEC) in Japan for two weeks from 26 February through 13 March. Moreover, most schools were closed (SC). OBJECTIVE: For this study, we estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) and SC and VEC effects. METHOD: After constructing a susceptible-infected-recovered model with three age classes, we used data of symptomatic patients in Japan for 14 January through 24 March. The SC and VEC effects were incorporated into the model through changes in contact patterns and contact frequencies among age classes. RESULTS: Results suggest R0 as 2.56, with 95% CI of [2.51, 2.96] before SC and VEC. The respective effects of SC and VEC were estimated as 0.4 (95% CI [0.3, 0.5]) and 0.5 (95% CI [0.3, 0.7]). CONCLUSION: The estimated R0 is similar to those found from other studies of China and Japan. Significant reduction of contact frequency has been achieved by SC and VEC. Nevertheless, its magnitude was insufficient to contain the outbreak.

Effects of voluntary event cancellation and school closure as countermeasures against COVID-19 outbreak in Japan.

BACKGROUND: To control the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, sports and entertainment events were canceled and schools were closed throughout Japan from February 26 through March 19. That policy has been designated as voluntary event cancellation and school closure (VECSC). OBJECT: This study assesses VECSC effectiveness based on predicted outcomes. METHODS: A simple susceptible-infected-recovered model was applied to data of patients with symptoms in Japan during January 14 through March 26. The respective reproduction numbers for periods before VECSC (R0), during VECSC (Re), and after VECSC (Ra) were estimated. RESULTS: Results suggest R0 before VECSC as 2.534 [2.449, 2.598], Re during VECSC as 1.077 [0.948, 1.228], and Ra after VECSC as 4.455 [3.615, 5.255]. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Results demonstrated that VECSC can reduce COVID-19 infectiousness considerably, but after VECSC, the value of the reproduction number rose to exceed 4.0.

Higher Incidence of Syphilis among Patients with HIV Infection: Population Study using Surveillance Data of Tokyo, Japan.

In Japan, the reported cases of syphilis have been increasing since 2011 especially in large cities such as Tokyo. The objective of this study was to evaluate the risk of HIV infection for syphilis co-infection on the population of Tokyo, Japan. We analyzed data of syphilis cases obtained from additional surveillance by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government in 2018, including those with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection as well as data of HIV/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) cases during 1985-2017. We calculated the incidence of symptomatic syphilis cases among HIV-infected or non-HIV-infected individuals. Similarly, we calculated the incidence of syphilis, including asymptomatic cases, among each population. The relative risk of HIV infection for syphilis, including or excluding asymptomatic syphilis cases, was estimated. The relative risk was calculated by dividing the incidence of syphilis in the HIV-infected population by that in the non-HIV-infected population. Of the 1,775 syphilis cases reported in 2018, 172 cases were infected with HIV, 575 cases were uninfected, and the remainder were either unknown or not reported. The cumulative number of HIV/AIDS cases during 1985-2017 in Tokyo was 9,629; among them, 172 were co-infected with syphilis. The relative risk of HIV infection for syphilis was estimated as 423.29 if asymptomatic syphilis cases were included, and 372.37 if they were excluded. These results showed an extremely high risk of HIV infection. Since many syphilis cases have unknown or unreported HIV infection status, reduction of these cases might contribute to more reliable estimation of HIV infection risk.

Determinants of Vaccination Coverage for the Second Dose of Measles-Rubella Vaccine in Tokyo, Japan.

In Japan, some measles outbreaks were initiated by a tourist from oversea and foreign workers recently. Moreover, rubella outbreak emerged since July 2018 mainly in the South Kanto, and the outbreak is currently ongoing in 2019. It is important to maintain a high measles-rubella combined vaccine (MR) coverage for measles-rubella control. Vaccination coverage for the second dose of MR (MR2) is 90.8% in Tokyo in 2016, which was the third worst among all prefectures in Japan. The purpose of this study was to clarify determinant factors of vaccination coverage for MR2 in Tokyo. Data were obtained for 49 wards and cities in Tokyo in 2016. We regressed vaccination coverage of MR2 on the times of notification by mail, the proportion of households receiving welfare payments, and the proportion of non-Japanese elementary school students. In addition to the simplest specification, five factors were included separately as explanatory variables: the proportion of public health nurses; the ratio of the number of pediatric medical facilities to the number of preschool and elementary school children; the moving-in rate; the proportion of households with a single parent; and the proportion of households with husband and wife both working. Results show that a high proportion of households receiving welfare payments, notification by two or more letters, and moving-in rate or a lower proportion of non-Japanese elementary school students improve coverage. In conclusion, the health authorities can exert efforts to reduce burden of time spent for vaccination and provide sufficient information to improve coverage.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of (Nursery) School Absenteeism Surveillance System.

BACKGROUND: Our earlier report reported that the (Nursery) School Absenteeism Surveillance System ((N)SASSy) can decrease numbers of patients. This study evaluates (N)SASSy's cost-effectiveness. METHODS: A social perspective is taken for economic evaluation. For simplicity, 8,000 yen is assumed for direct medical costs. We assume the home health care duration to be 6 days, with 30 000 yen as the indirect opportunity cost of family nursing. Benefit-cost ratios are used as indicators of cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: By multiplying the disease burden per patient by the reduced number of patients, the (N)SASSy effect was estimated as 206.9 billion yen, with 95% confidence interval of [67.3,346.6] billion yen. The total cost attributable to (N)SASSy throughout Japan is expected to be 2.63 billion yen. The benefit-cost ratio is expected to be approximately 60. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated benefit-cost ratio is much higher than that for the routine immunization of children.

Infection Control in Nursery Schools and Schools Using a School Absenteeism Surveillance System.

Infection control in nursery schools and schools is important for community health and the health of children. In Japan, caregivers of children or students usually report the absence due to illness to their attending nurseries or schools, including symptoms and diagnosed diseases. The (Nursery) School Absenteeism Surveillance System, (N)SASSy, covers about 60% of schools and 40% of nurseries in Japan. In this paper, we evaluated the benefits of (N)SASSy as an infection control measure by a public health center. Mito Public Health Center (MPHC) covers 58 nurseries and 186 schools, as of May 2015, and called the nurseries and/or schools to confirm the situation, in case of aberration detected through (N)SASSy. The outcome was defined as the proportion of cluster avoidance by advice from MPHC. A cluster was identified, when the number of patients at the same facility with the same symptom or diagnosed disease was greater than ten during the prior seven days. During the study period (April 2015-March 2016), MPHC advised 85 times, and clusters were avoided 82 times (96.5%). The proportion of cluster avoidance was 100% for fever, enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli infection, respiratory syncytial virus infection, or streptococcal pharyngitis infection. The proportion of cluster avoidance for diarrhea, vomiting or gastroenteritis infection, mumps, hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD), and influenza was 78.8, 50.0, 20.0, and 6.7%, respectively. In conclusion, advice from a public health center given by phone based on information from (N)SASSy will be helpful for reducing the number of clusters of infectious diseases, except for HFMD and influenza.

Early detection and response for measles and rubella cases through the (Nursery) School Absenteeism Surveillance System in Ibaraki Prefecture.

Objectives In Ibaraki Prefecture, all (nursery) schools have joined the (Nursery) School Absenteeism Surveillance System (hereafter denoted as (N)SASSy), which is operated by the Japan School Health Association to monitor the prevalence of infectious diseases, the early detection and response for outbreaks, and prevention of large outbreaks. Prefectural government officers also utilize it as a control measure for infectious diseases. In particular, when cases of measles or rubella are registered, (N)SASSy sends e-mails automatically to prefectural government officers to activate control measures. This paper summarizes administrative responses by prefectural government officers for measles or rubella cases using (N)SASSy and discusses the future challenges.Methods We summarized registration, detection, and first response data for measles or rubella cases in (N)SASSy and compared the number of detected and reported cases enforced by the Infectious Diseases Control Law from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2014.Results The public health center questioned hospitals/clinics and (nursery) schools about all registered measles or rubella cases in (N)SASSy on the same day to check the entered information. In the past 2 years, there were 5 measles and 56 rubella cases in 2013 and 1 measles and 19 rubella cases in 2014 registered with (N)SASSy. All cases were checked and investigated by the public health center. Of all cases detected by (N)SASSy, 7 rubella cases in 2013 and 1 rubella case in 2014 were reported based on the law. No measles cases were reported in the 2 years. The results of investigations and laboratory tests were given as feedback to the (nursery) schools. If the case did not case definition determined by the law, we changed the status in (N)SASSy to suspected or discarded cases.Conclusion Since (N)SASSy assists prefectural government officers with earlier detection of and response for infectious diseases, it definitely contributes to infection control. Immediate feedback of the laboratory test results to the (nursery) schools was also useful to confirm cases of measles or rubella. As data entry in (nursery) schools is needed for stable operation and utilization of (N)SASSy, it is important that workshops for (N)SASSy are held for (nursery) school teachers every year to maintain accuracy. Our future challenges include the coordination among (nursery) schools, hospitals/clinics, and prefectural government and their applications for infection control.