Health-related quality of life and impact of socioeconomic status among primary and secondary school students after the third COVID-19 wave in Berlin, Germany.

In the earlier phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, studies in Germany and elsewhere found an overall reduction in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) among students. However, there is little evidence on later pandemic stages as well as socioeconomic influencing factors. We aimed to (1) describe HRQoL in a Berlin student cohort at two time points in mid-2021, and to (2) analyze the effects of household income and education. We assessed HRQoL of students from 24 randomly selected primary and secondary schools in Berlin, Germany, with the KIDSCREEN-10 index in June and September 2021. To adjust for non-response bias, inverse probability weighting was applied. The potential effects of both household income and education (lower vs. higher) were estimated in generalized linear mixed models, based on prior assumptions presented in directed acyclic graphs. Our cohort comprised 660 students aged 7-19 years. In June 2021, 11.3% [95% CI = 9.0% - 14.0%] reported low HRQoL, whereas in September 2021, this increased to 13.7% [95% CI = 11.1% - 16.5%], with adolescent girls more frequently reporting low HRQoL at both time points (20% [95% CI = 17.1% - 23.3%] and 29% [95% CI = 25.5% - 32.5%]) compared to boys and younger children. While there was no statistically significant total effect of lower household income on HRQoL, a negative effect of lower household education was statistically significant (ß = -2.15, SE 0.95, 95% CI = -4.01 to -0.29, p = 0.024). In summary, students' HRQoL in mid-2021 was better than that documented in other studies conducted at pandemic onset using KIDSCREEN-10. Female adolescents reported low HRQoL more often, and lower household education significantly reduced children's HRQoL. Support strategies for psychosocial wellbeing should consider socioeconomically disadvantaged children as important target groups.

SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in a Berlin Kindergarten Environment: A Cross-Sectional Study, September 2021.

SARS-CoV-2 serology may be helpful to retrospectively understand infection dynamics in specific settings including kindergartens. We assessed SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in individuals connected to kindergartens in Berlin, Germany in September 2021. Children, staff, and household members from 12 randomly selected kindergartens were interviewed on COVID-19 history and sociodemographic parameters. Blood samples were collected on filter paper. SARS-CoV-2 anti-S and anti-N antibodies were assessed using Roche Elecsys. We assessed seroprevalence and the proportion of so far unrecognized SARS-CoV-2 infections. We included 277 participants, comprising 48 (17.3%) kindergarten children, 37 (13.4%) staff, and 192 (69.3%) household members. SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were present in 65.0%, and 52.7% of all participants were vaccinated. Evidence of previous infection was observed in 16.7% of kindergarten children, 16.2% of staff, and 10.4% of household members. Undiagnosed infections were observed in 12.5%, 5.4%, and 3.6%, respectively. Preceding infections were associated with facemask neglect. In conclusion, two-thirds of our cohort were SARS-CoV-2 seroreactive in September 2021, largely as a result of vaccination in adults. Kindergarten children showed the highest proportion of non-vaccine-induced seropositivity and an increased proportion of previously unrecognized SARS-CoV-2 infection. Silent infections in pre-school children need to be considered when interpreting SARS-CoV-2 infections in the kindergarten context.

AIDS-defining events among people living with HIV who have been under continuous antiretroviral therapy for more than one year, a German cohort study 1999-2018.

PURPOSE: This study examined the characteristics, incidence and prognostic factors of the first AIDS-defining condition developed after more than one year of continuous antiretroviral therapy (ART) among people living with HIV (PLHIV). METHODS: We used data from two multicentre observational cohorts of PLHIV in Germany between 1999 and 2018. Our outcome was the first AIDS-defining event that occurred during follow-up after more than one year of continuous ART. Descriptive analyses at ART initiation, at the time of the AIDS event and of the most frequently observed types of AIDS-defining illnesses were performed. We calculated the incidence rate (IR) per 1000 person-years (PY) and used a bootstrap stepwise selection procedure to identify predictors of the outcome. RESULTS: A total of 12,466 PLHIV were included in the analyses. 378 developed the outcome, constituting an overall IR of 5.6 (95% CI 5.1-6.2) AIDS events per 1000 PY. The majority of PLHIV was virally suppressed at the time of the event. Oesophageal candidiasis and wasting syndrome were the most frequently diagnosed AIDS-defining illnesses. We found a low CD4 count at ART initiation, a previous AIDS-defining condition and transmission through intravenous drug use to be meaningful prognostic factors of the outcome. CONCLUSION: The overall rate of AIDS-defining events among PLHIV under long-term ART was low, highlighting the importance of continuous treatment. PLHIV who started ART with indicators of impaired immune functioning were more susceptible to disease progression, suggesting that the public health response should continue to focus on early and sustained treatment for all PLHIV.

Prediction models of incontinence and sexual function one year after radical prostatectomy based on data from 20 164 prostate cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: Incontinence and sexual dysfunction are long-lasting side effects after surgical treatment (radical prostatectomy, RP) of prostate cancer (PC). For an informed treatment decision, physicians and patients should discuss expected impairments. Therefore, this paper firstly aims to develop and validate prognostic models that predict incontinence and sexual function of PC patients one year after RP and secondly to provide an online decision making tool. METHODS: Observational cohorts of PC patients treated between July 2016 and March 2021 in Germany were used. Models to predict functional outcomes one year after RP measured by the EPIC-26 questionnaire were developed using lasso regression, 80-20 splitting of the data set and 10-fold cross validation. To assess performance, R2, RMSE, analysis of residuals and calibration-in-the-large were applied. Final models were externally temporally validated. Additionally, percentages of functional impairment (pad use for incontinence and firmness of erection for sexual score) per score decile were calculated to be used together with the prediction models. RESULTS: For model development and internal as well as external validation, samples of 11 355 and 8 809 patients were analysed. Results from the internal validation (incontinence: R2 = 0.12, RMSE = 25.40, sexual function: R2 = 0.23, RMSE = 21.44) were comparable with those of the external validation. Residual analysis and calibration-in-the-large showed good results. The prediction tool is freely accessible: https://nora-tabea.shinyapps.io/EPIC-26-Prediction/. CONCLUSION: The final models showed appropriate predictive properties and can be used together with the calculated risks for specific functional impairments. Main strengths are the large study sample (> 20 000) and the inclusion of an external validation. The models incorporate meaningful and clinically available predictors ensuring an easy implementation. All predictions are displayed together with risks of frequent impairments such as pad use or erectile dysfunction such that the developed online tool provides a detailed and informative overview for clinicians as well as patients.

Effects of Mobile Stroke Unit dispatch on blood pressure management and outcomes in patients with intracerebral haematoma: Results from the Berlin_Prehospital Or Usual Care Delivery in acute Stroke (B_PROUD) controlled intervention study.

INTRODUCTION: In patients with acute intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) and elevated systolic blood pressure (BP), guidelines suggest that systolic BP reduction to <140 mmHg should be rapidly initiated. Compared with conventional care, Mobile Stroke Units (MSUs) allow for earlier ICH diagnosis through prehospital imaging and earlier BP lowering. PATIENTS AND METHODS: ICH patients were prospectively evaluated as a cohort of the controlled B_PROUD-study in which MSU availability alone determined MSU dispatch in addition to conventional ambulance. We used inverse probability of treatment weighting to adjust for confounding to estimate the effect of additional MSU dispatch in ICH patients. Outcomes of interest were 7-day mortality (primary), systolic BP (sBP) at hospital arrival, dispatch-to-imaging time, largest haematoma volume, anticoagulation reversal, length of in-hospital stay, 3-month functional outcome. RESULTS: Between February 2017 and May 2019, MSUs were dispatched to 95 (mean age: 72 ± 13 years, 45% female) and only conventional ambulances to 78 ICH patients (mean age: 71 ± 12 years, 44% female). After adjusting for confounding, we found shorter dispatch-to-imaging time (mean difference: -17.75 min, 95% CI: -27.16 to -8.21 min) and lower sBP at hospital arrival (mean difference = -16.31 mmHg, 95% CI: -30.64 to -6.19 mmHg) in the MSU group. We found no statistically significant difference for the other outcomes, including 7-day mortality (adjusted odds ratio: 1.43, 95% CI: 0.68 to 3.31) or favourable outcome (adjusted odds ratio = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.27 to 1.67). CONCLUSIONS: Although MSU dispatch led to sBP reduction and lower dispatch-to-imaging time compared to conventional ambulance care, we found no evidence of better outcomes in the MSU dispatch group.

Protocol for an economic evaluation of a tele-neurologic intervention alongside a stepped wedge randomised controlled trial (NeTKoH).

BACKGROUND: A significant and growing portion of the global burden of diseases is caused by neurological disorders. Tele-neurology has the potential to improve access to health care services and the quality of care, particularly in rural and underserved areas. The economic evaluation of the stepped wedge randomised controlled trial NeTKoH aims to ascertain the cost-effectiveness and cost-utility regarding the effects of a tele-neurologic intervention in primary care in a rural area in Germany. METHODS: This protocol outlines the methods used when conducting the trial-based economic evaluation of NeTKoH. The outcomes used in our economic analysis are all prespecified endpoints of the NeTKoH trial. Outcomes considered for the cost-utility and cost-effectiveness analyses will be quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) derived from the EQ-5D-5L, proportion of neurologic problems being solved at the GP's office (primary outcome), hospital length-of-stay and number of hospital stays. Costs will be prospectively collected during the trial by the participating statutory health insurances, and will be analysed from a statutory health insurance perspective within the German health care system. This economic evaluation will be reported complying with the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist. DISCUSSION: This within-trial economic evaluation relaying the costs and outcomes of an interdisciplinary tele-consulting intervention will provide high-quality evidence for cost-effectiveness and policy implications of a tele-neurological programme, including the potential for application in other rural areas in Germany or other jurisdictions with a comparable health system. TRIAL REGISTRATION: German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS00024492), date registered: September 28, 2021.

History of Migraine and Risk of COVID-19: A Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Although studies have reported migraine and headache as common symptoms of COVID-19, little is known about the association between migraine and the risk of developing COVID-19. METHODS: This is a prospective cohort study among 16,492 women enrolled in the Women's Health Study who completed a series of questionnaires in 2020 and 2021 concerning the COVID-19 pandemic. We defined history of migraine as reporting a physician diagnosis of migraine on any of the annual questionnaires from enrollment into the study (1992-1995) through the end of 2019. Individuals were classified as having had COVID-19 if they reported a positive test for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) or its antibodies, were told by a health care provider that they were probably or definitely diagnosed with COVID-19, or were hospitalized for COVID-19. We used logistic regression with inverse probability weighting to adjust for differences in the probability of being tested for SARS-CoV-2 and potential confounding. RESULTS: There were 4759 women (28.9%) that reported any history of migraine through the end of 2019; 1271 women were classified as having COVID-19, including 394 cases among those with a history of migraine. We did not observe evidence of a strong or moderate association between history of migraine and the risk of having had COVID-19 (odds ratio 1.08; 95% confidence interval, 0.95-1.22). Similar results were observed for migraine subtypes as well as for hospitalizations for COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: Older women with a history of migraine do not have an appreciable increase in the risk of developing COVID-19.

Assessing the transportability of clinical prediction models for cognitive impairment using causal models.

BACKGROUND: Machine learning models promise to support diagnostic predictions, but may not perform well in new settings. Selecting the best model for a new setting without available data is challenging. We aimed to investigate the transportability by calibration and discrimination of prediction models for cognitive impairment in simulated external settings with different distributions of demographic and clinical characteristics. METHODS: We mapped and quantified relationships between variables associated with cognitive impairment using causal graphs, structural equation models, and data from the ADNI study. These estimates were then used to generate datasets and evaluate prediction models with different sets of predictors. We measured transportability to external settings under guided interventions on age, APOE ε4, and tau-protein, using performance differences between internal and external settings measured by calibration metrics and area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). RESULTS: Calibration differences indicated that models predicting with causes of the outcome were more transportable than those predicting with consequences. AUC differences indicated inconsistent trends of transportability between the different external settings. Models predicting with consequences tended to show higher AUC in the external settings compared to internal settings, while models predicting with parents or all variables showed similar AUC. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated with a practical prediction task example that predicting with causes of the outcome results in better transportability compared to anti-causal predictions when considering calibration differences. We conclude that calibration performance is crucial when assessing model transportability to external settings.

The Effect of Mobile Stroke Unit Care on Functional Outcomes: An Application of the Front-door Formula.

BACKGROUND: The Berlin-based B_PROUD study was designed to assess the effect of mobile stroke unit (MSU) dispatch among ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA) patients without contraindications to reperfusion treatments. However, a large proportion of patients for whom the MSU was dispatched did not ultimately receive MSU care. We estimated the causal effect of additional MSU care on 3-month functional outcomes among B_PROUD patients for whom an MSU was dispatched. METHODS: We used data from the B_PROUD study (1 February 2017-8 May 2019). Given the presence of exposure-outcome unmeasured confounding, we used the front-door formula to identify the distribution of modified Rankin scale (mRS) outcomes under two hypothetical interventions: (1) receiving additional MSU care and (2) only receiving conventional care. We considered the time from dispatch to thrombolysis as the full mediator and adjusted for exposure-mediator and mediator-outcome confounding. We used a parametric estimator to estimate the common odds ratio (cOR) and 95% bootstrapped confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: We included in total 768 ischemic stroke/TIA patients with MSU dispatch. The MSU was canceled for 180 (23%) patients, whereas 588 (77%) received MSU care. The unadjusted association between the care group and mRS favored conventional care (cOR = 1.7; 95% CI = 1.2, 2.3); however, after applying the front-door formula, the mRS distribution favored MSU care (cOR = 0.88; 95% CI = 0.81, 0.96). CONCLUSIONS: Receiving MSU care was associated with better functional outcomes than conventional care only, compatible with the hypothesized beneficial effect of MSU care on poststroke outcomes, among stroke and TIA patients without contraindications to reperfusion treatments.

Estimation of migraine prevalence considering active and inactive states across different age groups.

BACKGROUND: Migraine is a very common headache disorder on the population level, characterized by symptomatic attacks (activity). For many people with migraine, the migraine symptoms intermittently or permanently cease during their lifetime (inactive migraine). The current diagnostic classification of migraine considers two states: active migraine (having migraine symptoms within the last year) and not having active migraine (including both individuals with inactive migraine and those who never had migraine). Defining a state of inactive migraine that has gone into remission may better capture the trajectories of migraine across the lifespan and contribute to a better understanding of its biological processes. We aimed to quantify the prevalence of never, active, and inactive migraine separately, using modern prevalence and incidence estimation methodology to better describe the complexity of migraine trajectories at the population level. METHODS: Using a multistate modeling approach, data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, and results from a population-based study, we estimated the transition rates by which individuals moved between migraine disease states and estimated prevalences of never, active and inactive migraine. We used data from the GBD project and a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 people with a starting age of 30 and 30 years of follow-up, both in Germany and globally, stratified by sex. RESULTS: In Germany, the estimated rate of transition from active to inactive migraine (remission rate) increased after the age of 22.5 in women and 27.5 in men. The pattern for men in Germany was similar to the one observed on the global level. The prevalence of inactive migraine among women reaches 25.7% in Germany and 16.5% globally at age 60. For men, the inactive migraine prevalence estimates at the same age were 10.4% in Germany and 7.1% globally. CONCLUSIONS: Considering an inactive migraine state explicitly reflects a different epidemiological picture of migraine across the lifecourse. We have demonstrated that many women of older ages may be in an inactive migraine state. Many pressing research questions can only be answered if population-based cohort studies collect information not only on active migraine but also on inactive migraine states.

Effect evaluation of a tele-neurologic intervention in primary care in a rural area in Germany-the NeTKoH study protocol of a stepped-wedge cluster randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Neurological disorders account for a large and increasing proportion of the global burden of disease. Therefore, it is important to strengthen the management of neurologic care, particularly in rural areas. The use of tele-neurology in primary care in rural areas is internationally considered to have the potential to increase access to health care services and improve the quality of care in these underserved areas. NeTKoH aims to address the existing knowledge gap regarding the effects of a tele-neurologic intervention in primary care under real-world conditions in a rural area in Germany. METHODS: NeTKoH is a cluster-randomized controlled trial with a stepped-wedge design involving 33 outpatient general practitioner's (GP) offices (clusters) in a rural area in Northeast Germany. During 11 predetermined steps, all clusters are randomized before they cross over into groups from the control to the intervention arm. The targeted sample size is 1,089 patients with neurologic symptoms that are continuously being recruited. In the intervention arm, tele-neurologic consultations will be provided via a face-to-face video conferencing system with a neurologic expert at a university hospital. The control arm will receive usual care. The primary outcome is the proportion of neurologic problems being solved at the GP's office. Secondary outcomes will comprise hospital stays and days, time until neurologic specialist appointments and diagnostics, patients' health status and quality of life, outpatient and inpatient referrals. A concurrent observational study, together with a process, implementation, and health economic evaluation, will also be conducted. DISCUSSION: Using a stepped-wedge cluster design in a real-life situation can help with logistic challenges and enhance the motivation of the participating GPs, as all, at some point, will be in the intervention phase. With the additional implementation evaluation pertaining to external validity, an observational study, and a health economic evaluation, NeTKoH will be able to provide an extensive evaluation for health policy decision-makers regarding the uptake into standard care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS00024492). Date registered: September 28, 2021. Date and protocol version: June 2023, version 1.

Contribution of Migraine to Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction.

BACKGROUND: Migraine with aura (MA) is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) independently from traditional vascular risk factors. However, the importance of MA on CVD occurrence relative to existing cardiovascular prediction tools remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: In this study, we sought to determine if adding MA status to 2 CVD risk prediction models improves risk prediction. METHODS: Participants enrolled in the Women's Health Study self-reported MA status and were followed for incident CVD events. We included MA status as a covariable in the Reynolds Risk Score and the American Heart Association (AHA)/American College of Cardiology (ACC) pooled cohort equation and assessed discrimination (Harrell c-index), continuous and categorical net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). RESULTS: MA status was significantly associated with CVD after including covariables in the Reynolds Risk Score (HR: 2.09; 95% CI: 1.54-2.84) and the AHA/ACC score (HR: 2.10; 95% CI: 1.55-2.85). Adding information on MA status improved discrimination of the Reynolds Risk Score model (from 0.792 to 0.797; P = 0.02) and the AHA/ACC score model (from 0.793 to 0.798; P = 0.01). We observed a small but statistically significant improvement in the IDI and continuous NRI after adding MA status to both models. We did not, however, observe significant improvements in the categorical NRI. CONCLUSIONS: Adding information on MA status to commonly used CVD risk prediction algorithms enhanced model fit but did not substantially improve risk stratification among women. Despite the strong association of migraine with CVD risk, the relatively low prevalence of MA compared with other CV risk factors limits its usefulness in improving risk classification at the population level.

Delineating the Seasonality of Varicella and Its Association With Climate in the Tropical Country of Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Varicella causes a major health burden in many low- to middle-income countries located in tropical regions. Because of the lack of surveillance data, however, the epidemiology of varicella in these regions remains uncharacterized. In this study, based on an extensive dataset of weekly varicella incidence in children ≤10 during 2011-2014 in 25 municipalities, we aimed to delineate the seasonality of varicella across the diverse tropical climates of Colombia. METHODS: We used generalized additive models to estimate varicella seasonality, and we used clustering and matrix correlation methods to assess its correlation with climate. Furthermore, we developed a mathematical model to examine whether including the effect of climate on varicella transmission could reproduce the observed spatiotemporal patterns. RESULTS: Varicella seasonality was markedly bimodal, with latitudinal changes in the peaks' timing and amplitude. This spatial gradient strongly correlated with specific humidity (Mantel statistic = 0.412, P = .001) but not temperature (Mantel statistic = 0.077, P = .225). The mathematical model reproduced the observed patterns not only in Colombia but also México, and it predicted a latitudinal gradient in Central America. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate large variability in varicella seasonality across Colombia and suggest that spatiotemporal humidity fluctuations can explain the calendar of varicella epidemics in Colombia, México, and potentially in Central America.

Prospective mixed-methods study evaluating the potential of a voicebot (CovBot) to relieve German health authorities during the COVID-19 infodemic.

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, telephone hotlines of local health authorities in Germany were overloaded due to information requests by the public. Objective: Evaluating the use of a COVID-19-specific voicebot (CovBot) in local health authorities in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study investigates the performance of the CovBot by assessing a perceptible relief of staff in the hotline service. Methods: This prospective mixed-methods study enrolled local health authorities in Germany from 01 February 2021 to 11 February 2022 to deploy the CovBot, which was mainly designed to answer frequently asked questions. To capture the user perspective and acceptance, we performed semistructured interviews and online surveys with their staff, conducted an online survey among callers, and analyzed the performance metrics of the CovBot. Results: The CovBot was implemented in 20 local health authorities serving 6.1 million German citizens and processed almost 1.2 million calls during the study period. The overall assessment was that the CovBot contributed to a perceived relief of the hotline service. In a survey among callers, 79% indicated that a voicebot could not replace a human. The analyzed anonymous metadata revealed that 15% of calls hung up immediately, 32% after hearing an FAQ answer, and 51% of calls were forwarded to the local health authority offices. Conclusions: A voicebot primarily answering FAQs can provide additional support to relieve the hotline service of local health authorities in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic. For complex concerns, a forwarding option to a human proved to be an essential functionality.

Transition for adolescents with a rare disease: results of a nationwide German project.

PURPOSE: The transition process from paediatric/adolescent to adult medical care settings is of utmost importance for the future health of adolescents with chronic diseases and poses even more difficulties in the context of rare diseases (RDs). Paediatric care teams are challenged to deliver adolescent-appropriate information and structures. Here we present a structured transition pathway which is patient-focused and adoptable for different RDs. METHODS: The transition pathway for adolescents 16 years and older was developed and implemented as part of a multi-centre study in 10 university hospitals in Germany. Key elements of the pathway included: assessment of patients' disease-related knowledge and needs, training/educational and counselling sessions, a structured epicrisis and a transfer appointment jointly with the paediatric and adult specialist. Specific care coordinators from the participating university hospitals were in charge of organization and coordination of the transition process. RESULTS: Of a total of 292 patients, 286 completed the pathway. Deficits in disease-specific knowledge were present in more than 90% of participants. A need for genetic or socio-legal counselling was indicated by > 60%. A mean of 2.1 training sessions per patient were provided over a period of almost 1 year, followed by the transfer to adult care in 267 cases. Twelve patients remained in paediatric care as no adult health care specialist could be identified. Targeted training and counselling resulted in improved disease-specific knowledge and contributed to empowering of patients. CONCLUSION: The described transition pathway succeeds to improve health literacy in adolescents with RDs and can be implemented by paediatric care teams in any RD specialty. Patient empowerment was mainly achieved by individualized training and counselling.