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COVID-19 is responsible for high mortality, but robust machine learning-based predictors of mortality are lacking. To generate a model for predicting mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 using Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDT). The Spanish SEMI-COVID-19 registry includes 24,514 pseudo-anonymized cases of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 from 1 February 2020 to 5 December 2021. This registry was used as a GBDT machine learning model, employing the CatBoost and BorutaShap classifier to select the most relevant indicators and generate a mortality prediction model by risk level, ranging from 0 to 1. The model was validated by separating patients according to admission date, using the period 1 February to 31 December 2020 (first and second waves, pre-vaccination period) for training, and 1 January to 30 November 2021 (vaccination period) for the test group. An ensemble of ten models with different random seeds was constructed, separating 80% of the patients for training and 20% from the end of the training period for cross-validation. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) was used as a performance metric. Clinical and laboratory data from 23,983 patients were analyzed. CatBoost mortality prediction models achieved an AUC performance of 84.76 (standard deviation 0.45) for patients in the test group (potentially vaccinated patients not included in model training) using 16 features. The performance of the 16-parameter GBDT model for predicting COVID-19 hospital mortality, although requiring a relatively large number of predictors, shows a high predictive capacity.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Aprendizado de Máquina , Sistema de RegistrosRESUMO
The significant impact of COVID-19 worldwide has made it necessary to develop tools to identify patients at high risk of severe disease and death. This work aims to validate the RIM Score-COVID in the SEMI-COVID-19 Registry. The RIM Score-COVID is a simple nomogram with high predictive capacity for in-hospital death due to COVID-19 designed using clinical and analytical parameters of patients diagnosed in the first wave of the pandemic. The nomogram uses five variables measured on arrival to the emergency department (ED): age, sex, oxygen saturation, C-reactive protein level, and neutrophil-to-platelet ratio. Validation was performed in the Spanish SEMI-COVID-19 Registry, which included consecutive patients hospitalized with confirmed COVID-19 in Spain. The cohort was divided into three time periods: T1 from February 1 to June 10, 2020 (first wave), T2 from June 11 to December 31, 2020 (second wave, pre-vaccination period), and T3 from January 1 to December 5, 2021 (vaccination period). The model's accuracy in predicting in-hospital COVID-19 mortality was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC). Clinical and laboratory data from 22,566 patients were analyzed: 15,976 (70.7%) from T1, 4,233 (18.7%) from T2, and 2,357 from T3 (10.4%). AUROC of the RIM Score-COVID in the entire SEMI-COVID-19 Registry was 0.823 (95%CI 0.819-0.827) and was 0.834 (95%CI 0.830-0.839) in T1, 0.792 (95%CI 0.781-0.803) in T2, and 0.799 (95%CI 0.785-0.813) in T3. The RIM Score-COVID is a simple, easy-to-use method for predicting in-hospital COVID-19 mortality that uses parameters measured in most EDs. This tool showed good predictive ability in successive disease waves.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Curva ROC , Sistema de Registros , Estudos RetrospectivosRESUMO
AIM: The rapid spread of a novel human coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 led to drastic measures world-wide. Most countries were forced to declare a national lockdown. We studied the effect of lockdown measures on the level of asthma control and maintenance treatment in children with recurrent wheezing and asthma during the first wave of COVID-19 in Spain. METHODS: We analysed children with recurrent wheezing or asthma before and after the implementation of the lockdown, by using a questionnaire aimed to examine pre-existing respiratory disorders, step treatment and level of asthma control before/after lockdown, COVID history and laboratory testing including IgG SARS-CoV-2. RESULTS: We enrolled 475 asthmatic and pre-school wheezers (60.6% males), mean age 5.6 years. There were no differences in asthma treatment comparing both periods: 81.7% maintained the same treatment (P = 0.103). According to child asthma-control questionnaire, 87.7% remained well controlled during confinement. Nearly, a third of children (34.9%) needed reliever treatment, mainly in older children. Determination of IgG SARS-CoV-2 was performed in 233 children (49.1%) of whom 17 (7.3%) tested positive. Seven patients positive to IgG SARS-CoV-2 were assisted in the emergency department and two required hospital admission. CONCLUSIONS: During COVID-19 lockdown in Spain, most children with recurrent wheezing and asthma remained well controlled from their underlying disease and did not modify greatly their maintenance treatments. Unexpectedly, we also observed that those children who tested positive to SARS-CoV-2 IgG showed a significant increase in paediatric hospital admissions and attendances to urgent care settings.
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Asma , COVID-19 , Asma/epidemiologia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Feminino , Humanos , Imunoglobulina G , Masculino , Sons Respiratórios , SARS-CoV-2 , Espanha/epidemiologiaRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Lumbar puncture (LP) is a frequent procedure during the neonatal period. Correctly performing this technique can avoid many of its complications. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the LP procedure in neonates in Spanish hospitals, studying the type of material and the sedation-analgesia used. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Cross-sectional study conducted in Spain gathering data through a survey research distributed by email through the Segurneo-SEN Hospital Network and the Spanish Neonatal Society. Data on the LP technique in neonates were collected. RESULTS: A total of 301 participants were analysed. Most professionals used a trocar needle with a stylet as the first option (89.7%); however, when the LP failed or was blood-stained, 32.2% changed the type of needle. A total of 143 doctors gave their subjective feeling about the type of needle: they only use trocar needles with stylet (41.3%), the technique is easier using scalp-vein needles (32.2%), there is less probability of a blood-stained LP, or failed using scalp-vein needles (7.7%), they choose the type of needle depending on the size of the newborn (10.5%), indifference when using one type or another needle (8.4%). Almost all (99%) of the surveyed doctors used some type of analgesia. The most widely used measures were topical anaesthetics (90.3%) and sucrose (82.2%). CONCLUSIONS: Currently, the LP procedure in the neonatal period is mainly performed with a trocar needle with a stylet and with the widespread use of different analgesic measures.
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Analgesia , Punção Espinal , Estudos Transversais , Humanos , Recém-Nascido , Dor , Manejo da DorRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The vast impact of COVID-19 call for the identification of clinical parameter that can help predict a torpid evolution. Among these, endothelial injury has been proposed as one of the main pathophysiological mechanisms underlying the disease, promoting a hyperinflammatory and prothrombotic state leading to worse clinical outcomes. Leukocytes and platelets play a key role in inflammation and thrombogenesis, hence the objective of the current study was to study whether neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelets-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), the systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) as well as the new parameter neutrophil-to-platelet ratio (NPR), could help identify patients who at risk of admission at Intensive Care Units. METHODS: A retrospective observational study was performed at HM Hospitales including electronic health records from 2245 patients admitted due to COVID-19 from March 1 to June 10, 2020. Patients were divided into two groups, admitted at ICU or not. RESULTS: Patients who were admitted at the ICU had significantly higher values in all hemogram-derived ratios at the moment of hospital admission compared to those who did not need ICU admission. Specifically, we found significant differences in NLR (6.9 [4-11.7] vs 4.1 [2.6-7.6], p < 0.0001), PLR (2 [1.4-3.3] vs 1.9 [1.3-2.9], p = 0.023), NPR (3 [2.1-4.2] vs 2.3 [1.6-3.2], p < 0.0001) and SII (13 [6.5-25.7] vs 9 [4.9-17.5], p < 0.0001) compared to those who did not require ICU admission. After multivariable logistic regression models, NPR was the hemogram-derived ratio with the highest predictive value of ICU admission, (OR 1.11 (95% CI: 0.98-1.22, p = 0.055). CONCLUSIONS: Simple, hemogram-derived ratios obtained from early hemogram at hospital admission, especially the novelty NPR, have shown to be useful predictors of risk of ICU admission in patients hospitalized due to COVID-19.
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COVID-19/sangue , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Adulto , Biomarcadores/sangue , COVID-19/imunologia , Humanos , Contagem de Linfócitos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Neutrófilos/imunologia , Contagem de Plaquetas/métodos , Prognóstico , Estudos RetrospectivosRESUMO
AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: We aimed to determine the impact of COVID-19 related home confinement on the paediatric population by focusing on anxiety, behavioural disturbances and somatic symptoms. BACKGROUND: To limit the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak, governments have imposed nationwide lockdowns to prevent direct contact; this has affected everyday lives and activities such as attending school classes. Such isolation may have impacted children's anxiety levels. DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional observational study using a web-based anonymous questionnaire from 22-26 April, 2020, among children (N = 2,292) in Spain. For children below 7 years of age, parents reported the children's behavioural, emotional and somatic symptoms and family environment data on a questionnaire designed by the researchers. Children over 7 years answered the Revised Children's Manifest Anxiety Scale either independently or with their parents' assistance. RESULTS: Children over 7 years, boys in particular, scored high on the anxiety spectrum. Moreover, participants who knew someone who had suffered from COVID-19 at home or whose parent was directly involved in the pandemic, obtained higher Total Anxiety scores. Significantly high values were found in all aspects of anxiety among those who feared infection or whose parents been unemployed. Of the children below 7 years, 56.3% had four or more anxiety-related symptoms, the most frequent of which were tantrums, emotional changes, restlessness and fear of being alone. The number of symptoms reported was significant when someone in the family home had been infected with COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 home confinement had a significant impact on children, causing anxiety, behavioural problems and somatic manifestations. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE: Nurses play a key role in screening children who have experience confinement owing to the COVID-19 pandemic in order to detect early anxiety symptoms using tele-health. Suitable direct interventions can then be implemented or interdisciplinary manage could be started.
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COVID-19 , Pandemias , Ansiedade/epidemiologia , Criança , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Estudos Transversais , Humanos , Masculino , SARS-CoV-2RESUMO
The clinical impact of COVID-19 disease calls for the identification of routine variables to identify patients at increased risk of death. Current understanding of moderate-to-severe COVID-19 pathophysiology points toward an underlying cytokine release driving a hyperinflammatory and procoagulant state. In this scenario, white blood cells and platelets play a direct role as effectors of such inflammation and thrombotic response. We investigate whether hemogram-derived ratios such as neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio and the systemic immune-inflammation index may help to identify patients at risk of fatal outcomes. Activated platelets and neutrophils may be playing a decisive role during the thromboinflammatory phase of COVID-19 so, in addition, we introduce and validate a novel marker, the neutrophil-to-platelet ratio (NPR).Two thousand and eighty-eight hospitalized patients with COVID-19 admitted at any of the hospitals of HM Hospitales group in Spain, from March 1 to June 10, 2020, were categorized according to the primary outcome of in-hospital death.Baseline values, as well as the rate of increase of the four ratios analyzed were significantly higher at hospital admission in patients who died than in those who were discharged (p<0.0001). In multivariable logistic regression models, NLR (OR 1.05; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.08, p=0.00035) and NPR (OR 1.23; 95% CI 1.12 to 1.36, p<0.0001) were significantly and independently associated with in-hospital mortality.According to our results, hemogram-derived ratios obtained at hospital admission, as well as the rate of change during hospitalization, may easily detect, primarily using NLR and the novel NPR, patients with COVID-19 at high risk of in-hospital mortality.
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Contagem de Células Sanguíneas , COVID-19/sangue , COVID-19/mortalidade , Hospitalização , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Biomarcadores/sangue , Feminino , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Neutrófilos , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Estudos Retrospectivos , EspanhaRESUMO
Infection by SARS-CoV2 has devastating consequences on health care systems. It is a global health priority to identify patients at risk of fatal outcomes. 1955 patients admitted to HM-Hospitales from 1 March to 10 June 2020 due to COVID-19, were were divided into two groups, 1310 belonged to the training cohort and 645 to validation cohort. Four different models were generated to predict in-hospital mortality. Following variables were included: age, sex, oxygen saturation, level of C-reactive-protein, neutrophil-to-platelet-ratio (NPR), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte-ratio (NLR) and the rate of changes of both hemogram ratios (VNLR and VNPR) during the first week after admission. The accuracy of the models in predicting in-hospital mortality were evaluated using the area under the receiver-operator-characteristic curve (AUC). AUC for models including NLR and NPR performed similarly in both cohorts: NLR 0.873 (95% CI: 0.849-0.898), NPR 0.875 (95% CI: 0.851-0.899) in training cohort and NLR 0.856 (95% CI: 0.818-0.895), NPR 0.863 (95% CI: 0.826-0.901) in validation cohort. AUC was 0.885 (95% CI: 0.885-0.919) for VNLR and 0.891 (95% CI: 0.861-0.922) for VNPR in the validation cohort. According to our results, models are useful in predicting in-hospital mortality risk due to COVID-19. The RIM Score proposed is a simple, widely available tool that can help identify patients at risk of fatal outcomes.
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This study aimed to create an individualized analysis model of the risk of intensive care unit (ICU) admission or death for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients as a tool for the rapid clinical management of hospitalized patients in order to achieve a resilience of medical resources. This is an observational, analytical, retrospective cohort study with longitudinal follow-up. Data were collected from the medical records of 3489 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 using RT-qPCR in the period of highest community transmission recorded in Europe to date: February-June 2020. The study was carried out in in two health areas of hospital care in the Madrid region: the central area of the Madrid capital (Hospitales de Madrid del Grupo HM Hospitales (CH-HM), n = 1931) and the metropolitan area of Madrid (Hospital Universitario Príncipe de Asturias (MH-HUPA) n = 1558). By using a regression model, we observed how the different patient variables had unequal importance. Among all the analyzed variables, basal oxygen saturation was found to have the highest relative importance with a value of 20.3%, followed by age (17.7%), lymphocyte/leukocyte ratio (14.4%), CRP value (12.5%), comorbidities (12.5%), and leukocyte count (8.9%). Three levels of risk of ICU/death were established: low-risk level (<5%), medium-risk level (5-20%), and high-risk level (>20%). At the high-risk level, 13% needed ICU admission, 29% died, and 37% had an ICU-death outcome. This predictive model allowed us to individualize the risk for worse outcome for hospitalized patients affected by COVID-19.
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BACKGROUND: The clinical presentation of COVID-19 ranges from a mild, self-limiting disease, to multiple organ failure and death. Most severe COVID-19 cases present low lymphocytes counts and high leukocytes counts, and accumulated evidence suggests that in a subgroup of patients presenting severe COVID-19, there may be a hyperinflammatory response driving a severe hypercytokinaemia which may be, at least in part, signalling the presence of an underlying endothelial dysfunction. In this context, available data suggest a prognostic role of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in various inflammatory diseases and oncological processes. Following this rationale, we hypothesized that NLR, as a marker of endothelial dysfunction, may be useful in identifying patients with a poor prognosis in hospitalized COVID-19 cases. DESIGN: A retrospective observational study performed at Hospital Universitario HM Puerta del Sur, Madrid, Spain, which included 119 patients with COVID-19 from 1 March to 31 March 2020. Patients were categorized according to WHO R&D Expert Group. RESULTS: Forty-five (12.1%) patients experienced severe acute respiratory failure requiring respiratory support. Forty-seven (12.6%) patients died. Those with worse outcomes were older (P = .002) and presented significantly higher NLR at admission (P = .001), greater increase in Peak NLR (P < .001) and higher increasing speed of NLR (P = .003) compared with follow-up patients. In a multivariable logistic regression, age, cardiovascular disease and C-reactive protein at admission and Peak NLR were significantly associated with death. CONCLUSIONS: NLR is an easily measurable, available, cost-effective and reliable parameter, which continuous monitoring could be useful for the diagnosis and treatment of COVID-19.
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COVID-19/sangue , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Leucocitose/sangue , Linfócitos , Linfopenia/sangue , Neutrófilos , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Proteína C-Reativa/imunologia , COVID-19/imunologia , COVID-19/mortalidade , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Comorbidade , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiologia , Endotélio Vascular/fisiopatologia , Feminino , Humanos , Hipertensão/epidemiologia , L-Lactato Desidrogenase/sangue , Contagem de Leucócitos , Leucocitose/imunologia , Modelos Logísticos , Contagem de Linfócitos , Linfopenia/imunologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Análise Multivariada , Prognóstico , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/epidemiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , SARS-CoV-2 , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Espanha/epidemiologiaRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Lumbar puncture (LP) is a frequent procedure during the neonatal period. Correctly performing this technique can avoid many of its complications. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the LP procedure in neonates in Spanish hospitals, studying the type of material and the sedation-analgesia used. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Cross-sectional study conducted in Spain gathering data through a survey research distributed by email through the Segurneo-SEN Hospital Network and the Spanish Neonatal Society. Data on the LP technique in neonates were collected. RESULTS: A total of 301 participants were analysed. Most professionals used a trocar needle with a stylet as the first option (89.7%); however, when the LP failed or was blood-stained, 32.2% changed the type of needle. A total of 143 doctors gave their subjective feeling about the type of needle: they only use trocar needles with stylet (41.3%), the technique is easier using scalp-vein needles (32.2%), there is less probability of a blood-stained LP, or failed using scalp-vein needles (7.7%), they choose the type of needle depending on the size of the new-born (10.5%), indifference when using one type or another needle (8.4%). Almost all (99%) of the surveyed doctors used some type of analgesia. The most widely used measures were topical anaesthetics (90.3%) and sucrose (82.2%). CONCLUSIONS: Currently, the LP procedure in the neonatal period is mainly performed with a trocar needle with a stylet and with the widespread use of different analgesic measures.
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PURPOSE: To investigate the metabolic impact of currently used therapies in polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). METHODS: This is an observational, retrospective and transversal protocol. A small cohort of 133 patients, aged 14-48 years, diagnosed with PCOS was divided into four experimental groups: 1) untreated PCOS patients (n = 51); 2) PCOS patients treated with one of the following therapies (n = 82): a) combined oral contraceptives (COC, n = 35); b) metformin (n = 11); and c) inositols (n = 36). RESULTS: Although only < 10% of patients included in this cohort can be strictly encompassed in the development of metabolic syndrome, approximately 20% had insulin resistance. In PCOS patients, COC treatment modified the hormonal profile and worsened lipid parameters (increasing cholesterol and triglyceride levels) and insulin resistance, whereas inositol therapies improved significantly insulin resistance and glycosylated hemoglobin, reducing cholesterol and triglyceride levels. In these women, obesity was associated with greater alterations in lipid and glycemic metabolism and with higher blood pressure levels. PCOS patients with phenotype A presented vaster alterations in lipid metabolism and higher values of glycosylated hemoglobin as well as blood pressure compared to other PCOS phenotypes. CONCLUSIONS: Results in this paper suggest that inositol therapies (alone or combined with COC) are the most useful therapies with the best benefits against PCOS symptoms. Thus, integrative treatment may become a more efficient long-term choice to control PCOS symptoms. Furthermore, obesity can be considered as an adverse symptom and calorie restriction a key element of combined treatment in PCOS, not only for fertility management but also in long-term metabolic sequelae.
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Anticoncepcionais Orais Combinados/uso terapêutico , Inositol/uso terapêutico , Doenças Metabólicas/induzido quimicamente , Metformina/uso terapêutico , Síndrome do Ovário Policístico/complicações , Síndrome do Ovário Policístico/tratamento farmacológico , Adolescente , Adulto , Glicemia , Anticoncepcionais Orais Combinados/efeitos adversos , Feminino , Hemoglobinas Glicadas , Humanos , Resistência à Insulina , Síndrome Metabólica/induzido quimicamente , Síndrome Metabólica/complicações , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Obesidade/induzido quimicamente , Obesidade/complicações , Síndrome do Ovário Policístico/sangue , Estudos Retrospectivos , Aumento de Peso/efeitos dos fármacos , Adulto JovemRESUMO
Este estudio demuestra cómo la aplicación del contacto piel con piel implica una mayor estabilidad térmica en el recién nacido y una mayor proporción de lactancia materna en el momento del alta hospitalaria