Partial substitution of red meat or processed meat with plant-based foods and the risk of colorectal cancer.

OBJECTIVES: Shifting from animal-based to plant-based diets could reduce colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence. Currently, the impacts of these dietary shifts on CRC risk are ill-defined. Therefore, we examined partial substitutions of red or processed meat with whole grains, vegetables, fruits or a combination of these in relation to CRC risk in Finnish adults. METHODS: We pooled five Finnish cohorts, resulting in 43 788 participants aged ≥ 25 years (79% men). Diet was assessed by validated food frequency questionnaires at study enrolment. We modelled partial substitutions of red (100 g/week) or processed meat (50 g/week) with corresponding amounts of plant-based foods. Cohort-specific hazard ratios (HR) for CRC were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models and pooled together using random-effects models. Adjustments included age, sex, energy intake and other relevant confounders. RESULTS: During the median follow-up of 28.8 years, 1124 CRCs were diagnosed. We observed small risk reductions when red meat was substituted with vegetables (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.95 - 0.99), fruits (0.97, 0.94 - 0.99), or whole grains, vegetables and fruits combined (0.97, 0.95 - 0.99). For processed meat, these substitutions yielded 1% risk reductions. Substituting red or processed meat with whole grains was associated with a decreased CRC risk only in participants with < median whole grain intake (0.92, 0.86 - 0.98; 0.96, 0.93 - 0.99, respectively; pinteraction=0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Even small, easily implemented substitutions of red or processed meat with whole grains, vegetables or fruits could lower CRC risk in a population with high meat consumption. These findings broaden our insight into dietary modifications that could foster CRC primary prevention.

The future burden of oesophageal and stomach cancers attributable to modifiable behaviours in Australia: a pooled cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We quantified the individual and joint contribution of contemporaneous causal behavioural exposures on the future burden of oesophageal and stomach cancers and their subtypes and assessed whether these burdens differ between population groups in Australia, as such estimates are currently lacking. METHODS: We combined hazard ratios from seven pooled Australian cohorts (N = 367,058) linked to national cancer and death registries with exposure prevalence from the 2017-2018 National Health Survey to estimate Population Attributable Fractions (PAFs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), accounting for competing risk of death. RESULTS: Current and past smoking explain 35.2% (95% CI = 11.7-52.4%), current alcohol consumption exceeding three drinks/day 15.7% (95% CI = 0.9-28.4%), and these exposures jointly 41.4% (95% CI = 19.8-57.3%) of oesophageal squamous cell carcinomas in Australia. Current and past smoking contribute 38.2% (95% CI = 9.4-57.9%), obesity 27.0% (95% CI = 0.6-46.4%), and these exposures jointly 54.4% (95% CI = 25.3-72.1%) of oesophageal adenocarcinomas. Overweight and obesity explain 36.1% (95% CI = 9.1-55.1%), current and past smoking 24.2% (95% CI = 4.2-40.0%), and these exposures jointly 51.2% (95% CI = 26.3-67.8%) of stomach cardia cancers. Several population groups had a significantly higher smoking-attributable oesophageal cancer burden, including men and those consuming excessive alcohol. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking is the leading preventable behavioural cause of oesophageal cancers and overweight/obesity of stomach cancers.

Uptake of Team Care Arrangements for adults newly diagnosed with cancer.

BACKGROUND: Medicare-subsidised Team Care Arrangements (TCAs) support Australian general practitioners to implement shared care between collaborating health professionals for patients with chronic medical conditions and complex needs. We assessed the prevalence of TCAs, factors associated with TCA uptake and visits to TCA-subsidised allied health practitioners, for adults newly diagnosed with cancer in New South Wales, Australia. METHODS: We carried out a retrospective individual patient data linkage study with 13 951 45 and Up Study participants diagnosed with incident cancer during 2006-16. We used a proportional hazards model to estimate the factors associated with receipt of a TCA after cancer diagnosis. RESULTS: In total, 6630 patients had a TCA plan initiated (47.5%). A TCA was more likely for patients aged ≥65years, those with higher service utilisation 4-15months prior to cancer diagnosis, a higher number of comorbidities, lower self-rated overall health status, living in areas of greater socio-economic disadvantage, lower educational attainment and those with no private health insurance. A total of 4084 (61.6%) patients with a TCA had at least one TCA-subsidised allied health visit within 24months of the TCA. CONCLUSIONS: TCAs appear to be well targeted at cancer patients with chronic health conditions and lower socioeconomic status. Nevertheless, not all patients with a TCA subsequently attended a TCA-subsidised allied healthcare professional. This suggests either a misunderstanding of the plan, the receipt of allied health via other public schemes, a low prioritisation of the plan compared to other health care, or suboptimal availability of these services.

The burden of colon cancer attributable to modifiable factors-The Norwegian Women and Cancer Study.

Colon cancer is the second most frequently diagnosed cancer in women in Norway, where incidence rates of colon cancer increased 3-fold between 1955 and 2014, for unknown reasons. We aimed to assess the burden of colon cancer attributable to modifiable risk factors in Norwegian women using the data from the Norwegian Women and Cancer (NOWAC) study. Self-reported information from 35 525 women from the NOWAC study were available. These included the following exposures: smoking status, alcohol consumption, body mass index, physical activity, intake of calcium, fibers, and red and processed meat. Colon cancer cases were identified from the Cancer Registry of Norway. A parametric piecewise constant hazards model was used to estimate the strength of exposure-cancer associations. Population attributable fractions with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated considering competing risk of death. The fraction of incident colon cancer attributable to ever smoking was 18.7% (95% CI 4.7%-30.6%), low physical activity 10.8% (95% CI -0.7% to 21.0%), alcohol consumption 14.5% (95% CI -2.8% to 28.9%), and low intake of calcium 10.0% (95% CI -7.8% to 24.8%). A small proportion of colon cancer cases was attributable to combined intake of red and processed meat over 500 g/week, overweight/obesity, and low intake of fibers. Jointly, these seven risk factors could explain 46.0% (95% CI 23.0%-62.4%) of the colon cancer incidence burden. Between 23% and 62% of the colon cancer burden among women in Norway was attributable to modifiable risk factors, indicating an important preventive potential of a healthy lifestyle.

Thyroid cancers potentially preventable by reducing overweight and obesity in Australia: A pooled cohort study.

Thyroid cancer incidence and the prevalence of overweight and obesity are increasing, but the future thyroid cancer burden attributable to contemporary levels of overweight and obesity has not been evaluated before. We quantified this burden in Australia, and assessed whether the overweight/obesity-attributable burden differed by sex or other population subgroupings. We estimated the strength of the associations of overweight and obesity with thyroid cancer with adjusted proportional hazards models using pooled data from seven Australian cohorts (N = 367 058) with 431 thyroid cancer cases ascertained from linked national cancer registry data during a maximum 22-year follow-up. We combined these estimates with nationally representative 2017 to 2018 estimates of overweight and obesity prevalence to estimate population attributable fractions (PAFs) of future thyroid cancers attributable to overweight and obesity, accounting for competing risk of death, and compared PAFs for population subgroups. Contemporary levels of overweight and obesity explain 18.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 5.2%-30.2%), and obesity alone 13.7% (95% CI: 5.2%-21.4%), of the future thyroid cancer burden. The obesity-attributable thyroid cancer burden is 21.4% (95% CI: 2.8%-36.5%) for men and 10.1% (95% CI: 0.8%-18.6%) for women. Were the currently obese overweight instead, 9.9% (95% CI: 1.0%-18.1%) of thyroid cancers could be avoided. The relative overweight/obesity-attributable burden is higher for those consuming on average more than two alcoholic drinks per day (63.4%) and for those who are not married/co-habiting (33.2%). In conclusion, avoiding excess weight, especially obesity, should be a priority for thyroid cancer prevention. Further studies, with findings stratified by tumour size, may reveal the potential role of overdiagnosis in our results.

Association between overall diet quality and postmenopausal breast cancer risk in five Finnish cohort studies.

There is limited evidence for any dietary factor, except alcohol, in breast cancer (BC) risk. Therefore, studies on a whole diet, using diet quality indices, can broaden our insight. We examined associations of the Nordic Diet (mNDI), Mediterranean diet (mMEDI) and Alternative Healthy Eating Index (mAHEI) with postmenopausal BC risk. Five Finnish cohorts were combined including 6374 postmenopausal women with dietary information. In all, 8-9 dietary components were aggregated in each index, higher total score indicating higher adherence to a healthy diet. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the combined hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for BC risk. During an average 10-year follow-up period, 274 incident postmenopausal BC cases were diagnosed. In multivariable models, the HR for highest vs. lowest quintile of index was 0.67 (95 %CI 0.48-1.01) for mNDI, 0.88 (0.59-1.30) for mMEDI and 0.89 (0.60-1.32) for mAHEI. In this combined dataset, a borderline preventive finding of high adherence to mNDI on postmenopausal BC risk was found. Of the indices, mNDI was more based on the local food culture than the others. Although a healthy diet has beneficially been related to several chronic diseases, the link with the etiology of postmenopausal BC does not seem to be that obvious.

Incidence trends and risk factors of lung cancer in never smokers: Pooled analyses of seven cohorts.

The trends in incidence of lung cancer in never smokers are unclear as well as the significance of risk factors. We studied time trends in the incidence and risk factors of lung cancer in never smokers in Finland in a large, pooled cohort. We pooled data from seven Finnish health cohorts from the period between 1972 and 2015 with 106 193 never smokers. The harmonised risk factors included education, alcohol consumption, physical activity, height and BMI. We retrieved incident lung cancers from the nation-wide Finnish Cancer Registry. We estimated average annual percent change (AAPC) and the effects of risk factors on cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs) of lung cancer using Poisson regression. We detected 47 lung cancers in never smoking men (n = 31 859) and 155 in never smoking women (n = 74 334). The AAPC of lung cancer incidence was -3.30% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -5.68% to -0.88%, P = .009) in never smoking men and 0.00% (95% CI: -1.57% to 1.60%, P = .996) in never smoking women. Of the five studied risk factors only greater height in women had a statistically significant increased risk of lung cancer (multivariate HR = 1.84, 95%CI: 1.08 to 3.12). It is plausible that tobacco control measures focused on working places have reduced passive smoking among men more than among women, which could explain the declining trend in lung cancer incidence in never smoker men but not in never smoker women. As tobacco control measures have not been targeted to domestic environments, it is likely that women's exposure to passive smoking has continued longer.

The Future Burden of Head and Neck Cancers Attributable to Modifiable Behaviors in Australia: A Pooled Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of future burden of cancer attributable to current modifiable causal exposures can guide cancer prevention. We quantified future head and neck cancer burden in Australia attributable to individual and joint causal exposures, and assessed whether these burdens differ between population subgroups. METHODS: We estimated the strength of the associations between exposures and head and neck cancer using adjusted proportional hazards models from pooled data from seven Australian cohorts (N = 367,058) linked to national cancer and death registries and estimated exposure prevalence from the 2017 to 2018 Australian National Health Survey. We calculated population attributable fractions (PAF) with 95% confidence intervals (CI), accounting for competing risk of death, and compared PAFs for population subgroups. RESULTS: Contemporary levels of current and former smoking contribute 30.6% (95% CI, 22.7%-37.8%), alcohol consumption exceeding two standard drinks per day 12.9% (95% CI, 7.6%-17.9%), and these exposures jointly 38.5% (95% CI, 31.1%-45.0%) to the future head and neck cancer burden. Alcohol-attributable burden is triple and smoking-attributable burden is double for men compared with women. Smoking-attributable burden is also at least double for those consuming more than two alcoholic drinks daily or doing less than 150 minutes of moderate or 75 minutes of vigorous activity weekly, and for those aged under 65 years, unmarried, with low or intermediate educational attainment or lower socioeconomic status, compared with their counterparts. CONCLUSIONS: Two-fifths of head and neck cancers in Australia are preventable by investment in tobacco and alcohol control. IMPACT: Targeting men and other identified high-burden subgroups can help to reduce head and neck cancer burden disparities.

Cancer incidence and cancer death in relation to tobacco smoking in a population-based Australian cohort study.

Tobacco smoke is a known carcinogen, but the magnitude of smoking-related cancer risk depends on country-specific, generational smoking patterns. We quantified cancer risk in relation to smoking in a population-based cohort, the 45 and Up Study (2006-2009) in New South Wales, Australia. Cox proportional hazards regressions estimated adjusted hazard ratios (HR) by self-reported smoking history at baseline (2006-2009) for incident, primary cancers via linkage to cancer registry data to 2013 and cancer death data to 2015. Among 229 028 participants aged ≥45 years, 18 475 cancers and 5382 cancer deaths occurred. Current-smokers had increased risks of all cancers combined (HR = 1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.34-1.51), cancers of the lung (HR = 17.66, 95%CI, 14.65-21.29), larynx (HR = 11.29, 95%CI, 5.49-23.20), head-and-neck (HR = 2.53, 95%CI, 1.87-3.41), oesophagus (HR = 3.84, 95%CI, 2.33-6.35), liver (HR = 4.07, 95%CI, 2.55-6.51), bladder (HR = 3.08, 95%CI, 2.00-4.73), pancreas (HR = 2.68, 95%CI, 1.93-3.71), colorectum (HR = 1.31, 95%CI, 1.09-1.57) and unknown primary site (HR = 3.26, 95%CI, 2.19-4.84) versus never-smokers. Hazards increased with increasing smoking intensity; compared to never-smokers, lung cancer HR = 9.22 (95%CI, 5.14-16.55) for 1-5 cigarettes/day and 38.61 (95%CI, 25.65-58.13) for >35 cigarettes/day. Lung cancer risk was lower with quitting at any age but remained higher than never-smokers for quitters aged >25y. By age 80y, an estimated 48.3% of current-smokers (41.1% never-smokers) will develop cancer, and 14% will develop lung cancer, including 7.7% currently smoking 1-5 cigarettes/day and 26.4% for >35 cigarettes/day (1.0% never-smokers). Cancer risk for Australian smokers is significant, even for 'light' smokers. These contemporary estimates underpin the need for continued investment in strategies to prevent smoking uptake and facilitate cessation, which remain key to reducing cancer morbidity and mortality worldwide.

Preventable fractions of cancer incidence attributable to 7-years weight gain in the Norwegian Women and Cancer (NOWAC) study.

There is a lack of tangible measures for directed public health action to halt the increase in weight and cancer. We estimated the fraction and preventable cases of all and major body fatness-related cancers attributable to 7-years weight gain (≥ 2 kg). We assessed validated self-reported anthropometrics from 44,114 women aged 34-49 years at the enrolment in 1991-1992 and from a second questionnaire in 1998, with follow-up through December 31, 2015. Over 18 years, 3216 body fatness-related cancers and 2041 deaths were reported. Nearly 70% of women experienced weight gain and the average weight change was 4 kg. We observed a substantial proportional impact of weight gain on pancreatic cancer with a population attributable fraction (PAF) of 41.8% (95% CI 8.1-63.1) and a high absolute impact on postmenopausal breast cancer with 4403 preventable cases (95% CI 1064-7299) and a PAF of 16.8% (95% CI 4.1-27.8), and colorectal cancer with 3857 preventable cases (95% CI 1313-5990) and a PAF of 22.6% (95% CI 7.7-35.1). Avoiding weight gain over seven years in middle adulthood could have prevented a considerable proportion of the cancer burden and thousands of cancer cases in women in Norway.

Self-reported health, lifestyle and social circumstances of Australian adult cancer survivors: A propensity score weighted cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: With the prevalence of cancer survivors increasing, their unique needs must be better understood. We examined the health, lifestyles and social circumstances of adults with and without a history of cancer. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study, using exposure and outcome data from the baseline survey (2006-2009) of participants in the 45 and Up Study, a prospective cohort study in New South Wales, Australia. We compared 20,811 cancer registry-verified adult cancer survivors with 207,148 participants without a history of cancer using propensity score weighting and accounting for multiple testing. The propensity weighting included age, sociodemographic factors and number of self-reported co-morbidities. RESULTS: Cancer survivors were more likely to report poorer physical and psychological health and quality of life compared to those without a cancer history, with most deficits still evident more than 10 years after cancer diagnosis. Cancer survivors were more likely to have a higher body mass index, but were less likely to smoke. Cancer survivors had greater functional limitations, including sexual, and were less likely to work full time, volunteer and spend time outdoors. Their social connectedness was, however, similar. Those with haematological cancer, lung cancer, or distant metastases, and those diagnosed at an older age, had the greatest health deficits and functional limitations. CONCLUSIONS: A history of cancer is associated with poorer health and less paid and unpaid work. Our findings reinforce the importance of routine long-term, integrated multidisciplinary care for cancer survivors and indicate the subgroups with the greatest unmet needs.

Pathways to a cancer-free future: a protocol for modelled evaluations to minimise the future burden of colorectal cancer in Australia.

INTRODUCTION: With almost 50% of cases preventable and the Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program in place, colorectal cancer (CRC) is a prime candidate for investment to reduce the cancer burden. The challenge is determining effective ways to reduce morbidity and mortality and their implementation through policy and practice. Pathways-Bowel is a multistage programme that aims to identify best-value investment in CRC control by integrating expert and end-user engagement; relevant evidence; modelled interventions to guide future investment; and policy-driven implementation of interventions using evidence-based methods. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Pathways-Bowel is an iterative work programme incorporating a calibrated and validated CRC natural history model for Australia (Policy1-Bowel) and assessing the health and cost outcomes and resource use of targeted interventions. Experts help identify and prioritise modelled evaluations of changing trends and interventions and critically assess results to advise on their real-world applicability. Where appropriate the results are used to support public policy change and make the case for optimal investment in specific CRC control interventions. Fourteen high-priority evaluations have been modelled or planned, including evaluations of CRC outcomes from the changing prevalence of modifiable exposures, including smoking and body fatness; potential benefits of daily aspirin intake as chemoprevention; increasing CRC incidence in people aged <50 years; increasing screening participation in the general and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations; alternative screening technologies and modalities; and changes to follow-up surveillance protocols. Pathways-Bowel is a unique, comprehensive approach to evaluating CRC control; no prior body of work has assessed the relative benefits of a variety of interventions across CRC development and progression to produce a list of best-value investments. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval was not required as human participants were not involved. Findings are reported in a series of papers in peer-reviewed journals and presented at fora to engage the community and policymakers.

Diagnostic and health service pathways to diagnosis of cancer-registry notified cancer of unknown primary site (CUP).

BACKGROUND: Cancer of unknown primary (CUP) is a late-stage malignancy with poor prognosis, but we know little about what diagnostic tests and procedures people with CUP receive prior to diagnosis. The purpose of this study was to determine how health service utilisation prior to diagnosis for people with cancer-registry notified CUP differs from those notified with metastatic cancer of known primary. METHODS: We identified people with a cancer registry notification of CUP (n = 327) from the 45 and Up Study, a prospective cohort of 266,724 people ≥45 years in New South Wales, Australia, matched with up to three controls with a diagnosis of metastatic cancer of known primary (n = 977). Baseline questionnaire data were linked to population health data to identify all health service use, diagnostic tests, and procedures in the month of diagnosis and 3 months prior. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: After adjusting for age and educational attainment, people with a cancer-registry notified CUP diagnosis were more likely to be an aged care resident (OR = 2.78, 95%CI 1.37-5.63), have an emergency department visit (OR = 1.65, 95%CI 1.23-2.21), serum tumor marker tests (OR = 1.51, 95%CI 1.12-2.04), or a cytology test without immunohistochemistry (OR = 2.01, 95%CI 1.47-2.76), and less likely to have a histopathology test without immunohistochemistry (OR = 0.43, 95%CI 0.31-0.59). Neither general practitioner, specialist, allied health practitioner or nurse consultations, hospitalisations, nor imaging procedures were associated with a CUP diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The health service and diagnostic pathway to diagnosis differs markedly for people notified with CUP compared to those with metastatic cancer of known primary. While these differences may indicate missed opportunities for earlier detection and appropriate management, for some patients they may be clinically appropriate.

The future burden of kidney and bladder cancers preventable by behavior modification in Australia: A pooled cohort study.

Substantial changes in the prevalence of the principal kidney and bladder cancer risk factors, smoking (both cancers) and body fatness (kidney cancer), have occurred but the contemporary cancer burden attributable to these factors has not been evaluated. We quantified the kidney and bladder cancer burden attributable to individual and joint exposures and assessed whether these burdens differ between population subgroups. We linked pooled data from seven Australian cohorts (N = 367,058) to national cancer and death registries and estimated the strength of the associations between exposures and cancer using adjusted proportional hazards models. We estimated exposure prevalence from representative contemporaneous health surveys. We combined these estimates to calculate population attributable fractions (PAFs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), accounting for competing risk of death, and compared PAFs for population subgroups. During the first 10-year follow-up, 550 kidney and 530 bladder cancers were diagnosed and over 21,000 people died from any cause. Current levels of overweight and obesity explain 28.8% (CI = 17.3-38.7%), current or past smoking 15.5% (CI = 6.0-24.1%) and these exposures jointly 39.6% (CI = 27.5-49.7%) of the kidney cancer burden. Current or past smoking explains 44.4% (CI = 35.4-52.1%) of the bladder cancer burden, with 24.4% attributable to current smoking. Ever smoking explains more than half (53.4%) of the bladder cancer burden in men, and the burden potentially preventable by quitting smoking is highest in men (30.4%), those aged <65 years (28.0%) and those consuming >2 standard alcoholic drinks/day (41.2%). In conclusion, large fractions of kidney and bladder cancers in Australia are preventable by behavior change.

The preventable burden of endometrial and ovarian cancers in Australia: A pooled cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Evidence on the endometrial and ovarian cancer burden preventable through modifications to current causal behavioural and hormonal exposures is limited. Whether the burden differs by population subgroup is unknown. METHODS: We linked pooled data from six Australian cohort studies to national cancer and death registries, and quantified exposure-cancer associations using adjusted proportional hazards models. We estimated exposure prevalence from representative health surveys. We then calculated Population Attributable Fractions (PAFs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), accounting for competing risk of death, and compared PAFs for population subgroups. RESULTS: During a median 4.9 years follow-up, 510 incident endometrial and 303 ovarian cancers were diagnosed. Overweight and obesity explained 41.9% (95% CI 32.3-50.1) of the endometrial cancer burden and obesity alone 34.5% (95% CI 27.5-40.9). This translates to 12,800 and 10,500 endometrial cancers in Australia in the next 10 years, respectively. The body fatness-related endometrial cancer burden was highest (49-87%) among women with diabetes, living remotely, of older age, lower socio-economic status or educational attainment and born in Australia. Never use of oral contraceptives (OCs) explained 8.1% (95% CI 1.8-14.1) or 2500 endometrial cancers. A higher BMI and current long-term MHT use increased, and long-term OC use decreased, the risk of ovarian cancer, but the burden attributable to overweight, obesity or exogenous hormonal factors was not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Excess body fatness, a trait that is of high and increasing prevalence globally, is responsible for a large proportion of the endometrial cancer burden, indicating the need for effective strategies to reduce adiposity.

The preventable burden of breast cancers for premenopausal and postmenopausal women in Australia: A pooled cohort study.

Estimates of the future breast cancer burden preventable through modifications to current behaviours are lacking. We assessed the effect of individual and joint behaviour modifications on breast cancer burden for premenopausal and postmenopausal Australian women, and whether effects differed between population subgroups. We linked pooled data from six Australian cohort studies (n = 214,536) to national cancer and death registries, and estimated the strength of the associations between behaviours causally related to cancer incidence and death using adjusted proportional hazards models. We estimated exposure prevalence from representative health surveys. We combined these estimates to calculate Population Attributable Fractions (PAFs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and compared PAFs for population subgroups. During the first 10 years follow-up, there were 640 incident breast cancers for premenopausal women, 2,632 for postmenopausal women, and 8,761 deaths from any cause. Of future breast cancers for premenopausal women, any regular alcohol consumption explains 12.6% (CI = 4.3-20.2%), current use of oral contraceptives for ≥5 years 7.1% (CI = 0.3-13.5%), and these factors combined 18.8% (CI = 9.1-27.4%). Of future breast cancers for postmenopausal women, overweight or obesity (BMI ≥25 kg/m2 ) explains 12.8% (CI = 7.8-17.5%), current use of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) 6.9% (CI = 4.8-8.9%), any regular alcohol consumption 6.6% (CI = 1.5-11.4%), and these factors combined 24.2% (CI = 17.6-30.3%). The MHT-related postmenopausal breast cancer burden varied by body fatness, alcohol consumption and socio-economic status, the body fatness-related postmenopausal breast cancer burden by alcohol consumption and educational attainment, and the alcohol-related postmenopausal breast cancer burden by breast feeding history. Our results provide evidence to support targeted and population-level cancer control activities.

The burden of pancreatic cancer in Australia attributable to smoking.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the burden of pancreatic cancer in Australia attributable to modifiable exposures, particularly smoking. DESIGN: Prospective pooled cohort study. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Seven prospective Australian study cohorts (total sample size, 365 084 adults); participant data linked to national registries to identify cases of pancreatic cancer and deaths. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Associations between exposures and incidence of pancreatic cancer, estimated in a proportional hazards model, adjusted for age, sex, study, and other exposures; future burden of pancreatic cancer avoidable by changes in exposure estimated as population attributable fractions (PAFs) for whole population and for specific population subgroups with a method accounting for competing risk of death. RESULTS: There were 604 incident cases of pancreatic cancer during the first 10 years of follow-up. Current and recent smoking explained 21.7% (95% CI, 13.8-28.9%) and current smoking alone explained 15.3% (95% CI, 8.6-22.6%) of future pancreatic cancer burden. This proportion of the burden would be avoidable over 25 years were current smokers to quit and there were no new smokers. The burden attributable to current smoking is greater for men (23.9%; 95% CI, 13.3-33.3%) than for women (7.2%; 95% CI, -0.4% to 14.2%; P = 0.007) and for those under 65 (19.0%; 95% CI, 8.1-28.6%) than for older people (6.6%; 95% CI, 1.9-11.1%; P = 0.030). There were no independent relationships between body mass index or alcohol consumption and pancreatic cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Strategies that reduce the uptake of smoking and encourage current smokers to quit could substantially reduce the future incidence of pancreatic cancer in Australia, particularly among men.

Longitudinal immunosuppression data can minimize misclassification bias in solid organ transplantation cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Most cohort studies investigating the effect of immunosuppression on transplant outcomes use drugs at first hospital discharge. We evaluated the extent of drug exposure misclassification and its impact on outcome prediction. METHODS: We retrospectively collected longitudinal immunosuppression data, at discharge and at 1, 5, 10, and 15 years after transplantation, and outcomes for solid organ transplant recipients 1984-2006 (n = 3133). We compared the risk of death from exposure to individual immunosuppressive drugs (cyclosporine, tacrolimus, azathioprine, and mycophenolate) and dual therapies, as defined by discharge only vs longitudinal immunosuppression data, using adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 5.2 years, immunosuppressive drugs were altered for 947 (30%) recipients and 955 recipients died. Longitudinal receipt of cyclosporine and azathioprine were associated with an increased risk (HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.07-1.89, and HR 1.34, 95% CI 1.00-1.80), and mycophenolate with a reduced risk (HR 0.35, 0.16-0.78), of death. Recipients on mycophenolate and tacrolimus dual therapy had a lower risk of death compared to those on azathioprine and cyclosporine dual therapy (HR 0.30, 0.10-0.93). The increased risk of death associated with the receipt of cyclosporine or azathioprine was not shown in the analyses based on drugs allocated at discharge, and all of the associations between immunosuppressive regimens and death were strengthened in the analyses based on longitudinal immunosuppression data. CONCLUSIONS: Cohort findings based on immunosuppressive drugs allocated at discharge should be interpreted with caution due to potential exposure misclassification. The use of granular, longitudinal data on immunosuppressive regimens could improve prediction.

The future burden of lung cancer attributable to current modifiable behaviours: a pooled study of seven Australian cohorts.

Background: Knowledge of preventable disease and differences in disease burden can inform public health action to improve health and health equity. We quantified the future lung cancer burden preventable by behavioural modifications across Australia. Methods: We pooled seven Australian cohort studies (n = 367 058) and linked them to national registries to identify lung cancers and deaths. We estimated population attributable fractions and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for modifiable risk factors, using risk estimates from the cohort data and risk factor exposure distribution from contemporary national health surveys. Results: During the first 10-year follow-up, there were 2025 incident lung cancers and 20 349 deaths. Stopping current smoking could prevent 53.7% (95% CI, 50.0-57.2%) of lung cancers over 40 years and 18.3% (11.0-25.1%) in 10 years. The smoking-attributable burden is highest in males, those who smoke <20 cigarettes per day, are <75 years of age, unmarried, of lower educational attainment, live in remote areas or are healthy weight. Increasing physical activity and fruit consumption, if causal, could prevent 15.6% (6.9-23.4%) and 7.5% (1.3-13.3%) of the lung cancer burden, respectively. Jointly, the three behaviour modifications could prevent up to 63.0% (58.0-67.5%) of lung cancers in 40 years, and 31.2% (20.9-40.1%) or 43 300 cancers in 10 years. The preventable burden is highest among those with multiple risk factors. Conclusions: Smoking remains responsible for the highest burden of lung cancer in Australia. The uneven burden distribution distinguishes subgroups that could benefit the most from activities to control the world's deadliest cancer.