Comparing maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods for fitting hidden Markov models to multi-state capture-recapture data of invasive carp in the Illinois River.

BACKGROUND: Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are often used to model multi-state capture-recapture data in ecology. However, a variety of HMM modeling approaches and software exist, including both maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. The diversity of these methods obscures the underlying HMM and can exaggerate minor differences in parameterization. METHODS: In this paper, we describe a general framework for modelling multi-state capture-recapture data via HMMs using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. We then apply an HMM to invasive silver carp telemetry data from the Illinois River and compare the results estimated by both methods. RESULTS: Our analysis demonstrates disadvantages of relying on a single approach and highlights insights obtained from implementing both methods together. While both methods often struggled to converge, our results show biologically informative priors for Bayesian methods and initial values for maximum likelihood methods can guide convergence toward realistic solutions. Incorporating prior knowledge of the system can successfully constrain estimation to biologically realistic movement and detection probabilities when dealing with sparse data. CONCLUSIONS: Biologically unrealistic estimates may be a sign of poor model convergence. In contrast, consistent convergence behavior across approaches can increase the credibility of a model. Estimates of movement probabilities can strongly influence the predicted population dynamics of a system. Therefore, thoroughly assessing results from HMMs is important when evaluating potential management strategies, particularly for invasive species.

Complementary feature selection from alternative splicing events and gene expression for phenotype prediction.

MOTIVATION: A central task of bioinformatics is to develop sensitive and specific means of providing medical prognoses from biomarker patterns. Common methods to predict phenotypes in RNA-Seq datasets utilize machine learning algorithms trained via gene expression. Isoforms, however, generated from alternative splicing, may provide a novel and complementary set of transcripts for phenotype prediction. In contrast to gene expression, the number of isoforms increases significantly due to numerous alternative splicing patterns, resulting in a prioritization problem for many machine learning algorithms. This study identifies the empirically optimal methods of transcript quantification, feature engineering and filtering steps using phenotype prediction accuracy as a metric. At the same time, the complementary nature of gene and isoform data is analyzed and the feasibility of identifying isoforms as biomarker candidates is examined. RESULTS: Isoform features are complementary to gene features, providing non-redundant information and enhanced predictive power when prioritized and filtered. A univariate filtering algorithm, which selects up to the N highest ranking features for phenotype prediction is described and evaluated in this study. An empirical comparison of pipelines for isoform quantification is reported by performing cross-validation prediction tests with datasets from human non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients, human patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) transgenic mice, each including samples of diseased and non-diseased phenotypes. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: https://github.com/clabuzze/Phenotype-Prediction-Pipeline.git CONTACT: clabuzze@iastate.edu, antoniom@bc.edu, watsondk@musc.edu, andersonpe2@cofc.edu.