The impact of the #MeToo movement on language at court A text-based causal inference approach.

This study assesses the effect of the #MeToo movement on the language used in judicial opinions on sexual violence related cases from 51 U.S. state and federal appellate courts. The study introduces various indicators to quantify the extent to which actors in courtrooms employ language that implicitly shifts responsibility away from the perpetrator and onto the victim. One indicator measures how frequently the victim is mentioned as the grammatical subject, as research in the field of psychology suggests that victims are assigned more blame the more often they are referred to as the grammatical subject. The other two indices designed to gauge the level of victim-blaming capture the sentiment of and the context in sentences referencing the perpetrator. Additionally, judicial opinions are transformed into bag-of-words and tf-idf vectors to facilitate the examination of the evolution of language over time. The causal effect of the #MeToo movement is estimated by means of a Difference-in-Differences approach comparing the development of the language in opinions on sexual offenses and other crimes against persons as well as a Panel Event Study approach. The results do not clearly identify a #MeToo-movement-induced change in the language in court but suggest that the movement may have accelerated the evolution of court language slightly, causing the effect to materialize with a significant time lag. Additionally, the study considers potential effect heterogeneity with respect to the judge's gender and political affiliation. The study combines causal inference with text quantification methods that are commonly used for classification as well as with indicators that rely on sentiment analysis, word embedding models and grammatical tagging.

How causal machine learning can leverage marketing strategies: Assessing and improving the performance of a coupon campaign.

We apply causal machine learning algorithms to assess the causal effect of a marketing intervention, namely a coupon campaign, on the sales of a retailer. Besides assessing the average impacts of different types of coupons, we also investigate the heterogeneity of causal effects across different subgroups of customers, e.g., between clients with relatively high vs. low prior purchases. Finally, we use optimal policy learning to determine (in a data-driven way) which customer groups should be targeted by the coupon campaign in order to maximize the marketing intervention's effectiveness in terms of sales. We find that only two out of the five coupon categories examined, namely coupons applicable to the product categories of drugstore items and other food, have a statistically significant positive effect on retailer sales. The assessment of group average treatment effects reveals substantial differences in the impact of coupon provision across customer groups, particularly across customer groups as defined by prior purchases at the store, with drugstore coupons being particularly effective among customers with high prior purchases and other food coupons among customers with low prior purchases. Our study provides a use case for the application of causal machine learning in business analytics to evaluate the causal impact of specific firm policies (like marketing campaigns) for decision support.

Timing matters: the impact of response measures on COVID-19-related hospitalization and death rates in Germany and Switzerland.

We assess the impact of the timing of lockdown measures implemented in Germany and Switzerland on cumulative COVID-19-related hospitalization and death rates. Our analysis exploits the fact that the epidemic was more advanced in some regions than in others when certain lockdown measures came into force, based on measuring health outcomes relative to the region-specific start of the epidemic and comparing outcomes across regions with earlier and later start dates. When estimating the effect of the relative timing of measures, we control for regional characteristics and initial epidemic trends by linear regression (Germany and Switzerland), doubly robust estimation (Germany), or synthetic controls (Switzerland). We find for both countries that a relatively later exposure to the measures entails higher cumulative hospitalization and death rates on region-specific days after the outbreak of the epidemic, suggesting that an earlier imposition of measures is more effective than a later one. For Germany, we further evaluate curfews (as introduced in a subset of states) based on cross-regional variation. We do not find any effects of curfews on top of the federally imposed contact restriction that banned groups of more than 2 individuals.