A prediction model for outcome in patients with HBV-ACLF based on predisposition, injury, response and organ failure.

We aimed to develop a prediction model based on the PIRO concept (Predisposition, Injury, Response and Organ failure) for patients with Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) related acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). 774 patients with HBV related ACLF defined in the CANONIC study were analyzed according to PIRO components. Variables associated with mortality were selected into the prediction model. Based on the regression coefficients, a score for each PIRO component was developed, and a classification and regression tree was used to stratify patients into different nodes. The prediction model was then validated using an independent cohort (n = 155). Factors significantly associated with 90-day mortality were: P: age, gender and ACLF type; I: drug, infection, surgery, and variceal bleeding; R: systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), spontaneous bacteria peritonitis (SBP), and pneumonia; and O: the CLIF consortium organ failure score (CLIF-C OFs). The areas under the receiver operating characteristics curve (95% confidence interval) for the combined PIRO model for 90-day mortality were 0.77 (0.73-0.80). Based on the scores for each of the PIRO components and the cut-offs estimated from the classification and regression tree, patients were stratified into different nodes with different estimated death probability. Based on the PIRO concept, a new prediction model was developed for patients with HBV related ACLF, allowing stratification into different clusters using the different scores obtained in each PIRO component. The proposed model will likely help to stratify patients at different risk, defining individual management plans, assessing criteria for specific therapies, and predicting outcomes.

Clinical characteristics and corticosteroids application of different clinical types in patients with corona virus disease 2019.

To describe the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Beijing. To analyze the application of corticosteroids in patients with severe pneumonia. We collected information on demographic characteristics, exposure history, clinical characteristics, corticosteroids use, and outcomes of the 65 confirmed cases of COVID-19 at Fifth Medical Center of PLA General Hospital from Jan 20 to Feb 23, 2020. The final follow-up date observed was April 15th, 2020. The number of patients with mild, general, severe, and critical type were 10 (15.38%), 32 (49.23%), 8 (12.31%), and 15 (23.08%), respectively. The median incubation period was 6 days. Notable outliers were 1 patient at 16 days and 1 patient at 21 days. In lymphocyte subgroup analysis, decreases in total, T, CD4, and CD8 lymphocytes were more common as the disease worsened (All P < 0.05). Methylprednisolone (mPSL) was applied to 31 (47.69%) patients with pneumonia, including 10 (31.25%) general, 8 (100%) severe, and 13 (86.67%) critical patients, respectively. Corticosteroids inhibited Interleukin-6(IL-6) production (P = 0.0215) but did not affect T lymphocyte (P = 0.0796). There was no significant difference between patients using lower dose (≤ 2 mg/kg day) and higher dose (> 2 mg/kg day) mPSL in inhibiting IL-6 production (P = 0.5856). Thirty of 31 patients (96.77%) had stopped mPSL due to improvement of pneumonia. Virus RNA clearance time lengthened with disease progression (P = 0.0001). In general type, there was no significant difference in virus clearance time between patients with (15, 12-19 days) and without (14.5, 11-18 days) (P = 0.7372) mPSL use. Lymphocyte, especially T lymphocyte, in severe and critical patients showed a dramatic decrease. Application of lower dose corticosteroids (≤ 2 mg/kg day) could inhibit IL-6 production (a representative of cytokines) as effectively as a higher dose. Proper use corticosteroids in general type patients did not delay virus clearance.