The long shadow of biodiversity loss.

Technological substitutes are poor proxies for functioning ecosystems.

Spillover effects of organic agriculture on pesticide use on nearby fields.

The environmental impacts of organic agriculture are only partially understood and whether such practices have spillover effects on pests or pest control activity in nearby fields remains unknown. Using about 14,000 field observations per year from 2013 to 2019 in Kern County, California, we postulate that organic crop producers benefit from surrounding organic fields decreasing overall pesticide use and, specifically, pesticides targeting insect pests. Conventional fields, by contrast, tend to increase pesticide use as the area of surrounding organic production increases. Our simulation suggests that spatially clustering organic cropland can entirely mitigate spillover effects that lead to an increase in net pesticide use.

The effect of agricultural land retirement on pesticide use.

Agricultural land retirement generates risks and opportunities for ecological communities and ecosystem services. Of particular interest is the influence of retired cropland on agricultural pests and pesticides, as these uncultivated lands may directly shift the distribution of pesticide use and may serve as a source of pests and/or natural enemies for remaining active croplands. Few studies have investigated how agricultural pesticide use is impacted by land retirement. Here we couple field-level crop and pesticide data from over 200,000 field-year observations and 15 years of production in Kern County, CA, USA to investigate: 1) how much pesticide use and applied toxicity are avoided annually due to the direct effects of retirement, 2) whether surrounding retirement drives pesticide use on active cropland and what types of pesticides are most influenced, and 3) whether the effect of surrounding retirement on pesticide use is dependent on the age or revegetation cover on retired parcels. Our results suggest about 100 kha are idle in any given year, which equates to about 1.3-3 M kg of pesticide active ingredients foregone. We also find retired lands lead to a small increase in total pesticide use on nearby active lands even after controlling for a combination of crop-, farmer-, region- and year-specific heterogeneity. More specifically, the results suggest a 10 % increase in retired lands nearby results in about a 0.6 % increase in pesticides, with the effect sizes increasing as a function of the duration of continuous fallowing, but decreasing or even reversing sign at high levels of revegetation cover. Our results suggest increasingly prevalent agricultural land retirement can shift the distribution of pesticides based on what crops are retired and what active crops remain nearby.

Identifying and characterizing pesticide use on 9,000 fields of organic agriculture.

Notwithstanding popular perception, the environmental impacts of organic agriculture, particularly with respect to pesticide use, are not well established. Fueling the impasse is the general lack of data on comparable organic and conventional agricultural fields. We identify the location of ~9,000 organic fields from 2013 to 2019 using field-level crop and pesticide use data, along with state certification data, for Kern County, CA, one of the US' most valuable crop producing counties. We parse apart how being organic relative to conventional affects decisions to spray pesticides and, if spraying, how much to spray using both raw and yield gap-adjusted pesticide application rates, based on a global meta-analysis. We show the expected probability of spraying any pesticides is reduced by about 30 percentage points for organic relative to conventional fields, across different metrics of pesticide use including overall weight applied and coarse ecotoxicity metrics. We report little difference, on average, in pesticide use for organic and conventional fields that do spray, though observe substantial crop-specific heterogeneity.

Reuse and recycle: Integrating aquaculture and agricultural systems to increase production and reduce nutrient pollution.

Integrated agriculture and aquaculture systems (IAAS) allow nutrients, energy, and water to flow throughout the components of the system, increasing the efficiency with which inputs are converted to food. Yet effectively designing an IAAS requires understanding how nutrients accumulate and alter the system's productivity. Here we developed a mechanistic model for nitrogen transport and utilization and parameterized it using the IAAS in He'eia, Hawai'i. Of note, we modeled tidal influence, which extends existing IAAS models that often assume aquaculture in tank enclosures. We simulated the impact of nitrogen loading from three possible land use scenarios across agriculture and development priorities on the productivity of the fishpond downstream. We projected that organic nitrogen and nitrate concentrations parallel the successive increases in nitrogen loading across management strategies. Autotroph and fish densities were predicted to follow similar trends in response to increased nitrogen availability, causing fish harvests to increase from the current land use (25 kg/ha) to the restored agriculture (35 kg/ha) and urban (50 kg/ha) alternatives. While fish harvests were predicted to be highest in the urban scenario, modeled caloric production in the restored scenario from agriculture and aquaculture would sustain 235 people (4.3 people/ha) in the He'eia IAAS, 16 and 125 times more than the current or urban land uses, respectively. Restoring diversified agriculture was also predicted to retain a larger proportion of nitrogen inputs (0.43) than urbanizing the region (0.30), which would reduce nitrogen export to the adjacent Kane'ohe Bay. Several state variables were notably sensitive to tidal flux rates, highlighting the importance of incorporating tidal dynamics into a coastal IAAS model. This model provides valuable insights for the management of existing coastal IAAS and design of new IAAS in coastal regions to improve the sustainability of future food systems.

Projected climate and land use change alter western blacklegged tick phenology, seasonal host-seeking suitability and human encounter risk in California.

Global environmental change is having profound effects on the ecology of infectious disease systems, which are widely anticipated to become more pronounced under future climate and land use change. Arthropod vectors of disease are particularly sensitive to changes in abiotic conditions such as temperature and moisture availability. Recent research has focused on shifting environmental suitability for, and geographic distribution of, vector species under projected climate change scenarios. However, shifts in seasonal activity patterns, or phenology, may also have dramatic consequences for human exposure risk, local vector abundance and pathogen transmission dynamics. Moreover, changes in land use are likely to alter human-vector contact rates in ways that models of changing climate suitability are unlikely to capture. Here we used climate and land use projections for California coupled with seasonal species distribution models to explore the response of the western blacklegged tick (Ixodes pacificus), the primary Lyme disease vector in western North America, to projected climate and land use change. Specifically, we investigated how environmental suitability for tick host-seeking changes seasonally, how the magnitude and direction of changing seasonal suitability differs regionally across California, and how land use change shifts human tick-encounter risk across the state. We found vector responses to changing climate and land use vary regionally within California under different future scenarios. Under a hotter, drier scenario and more extreme land use change, the duration and extent of seasonal host-seeking activity increases in northern California, but declines in the south. In contrast, under a hotter, wetter scenario seasonal host-seeking declines in northern California, but increases in the south. Notably, regardless of future scenario, projected increases in developed land adjacent to current human population centers substantially increase potential human-vector encounter risk across the state. These results highlight regional variability and potential nonlinearity in the response of disease vectors to environmental change.

Correction: Eco-Label Conveys Reliable Information on Fish Stock Health to Seafood Consumers.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0043765.].

Single species conservation as an umbrella for management of landscape threats.

Single species conservation unites disparate partners for the conservation of one species. However, there are widespread concerns that single species conservation biases conservation efforts towards charismatic species at the expense of others. Here we investigate the extent to which sage grouse (Centrocercus sp.) conservation, the largest public-private conservation effort for a single species in the US, provides protections for other species from localized and landscape-scale threats. We compared the coverage provided by sage grouse Priority Areas for Conservation (PACs) to 81 sagebrush-associated vertebrate species distributions with potential coverage under multi-species conservation prioritization generated using the decision support tool Zonation. PACs. We found that the current PAC prioritization approach was not statistically different from a diversity-based prioritization approach and covers 23.3% of the landscape, and 24.8%, on average, of the habitat of the 81 species. The proportion of each species distribution at risk was lower inside PACs as compared to the region as a whole, even without management (land use change 30% lower, cheatgrass invasion 19% lower). Whether or not bias away from threat represents the most efficient use of conservation effort is a matter of considerable debate, though may be pragmatic in this landscape where capacity to address these threats is limited. The approach outlined here can be used to evaluate biological equitability of protections provided by flagship species in other settings.

High highs and low lows: Elucidating striking seasonal variability in pesticide use and its environmental implications.

Despite substantial public and scientific concern regarding unintended environmental and health consequences of agricultural pesticide use, identifying when and where high levels of use occur is stymied by a dearth of data at biologically relevant spatial or temporal scales. Here we investigate intra-annual patterns in pesticide use by crop and by pesticide type using unique pesticide use data from agriculturally diverse croplands of California, USA. We find that timing and type of pesticide use is strongly crop-dependent, and that for many high pesticide use crops, monthly application rates are highly consistent from year-to-year. Further, while pesticide use hotspots are concentrated in early summer, regions with very high use occur throughout the year with spatial distributions varying therein. The enormity of intra-annual variation in pesticide use, as well as the consistency in those patterns through time, suggests opportunities for crop-specific pest management and region-specific mitigation approaches to limit environmental and human health hazards from agricultural pesticide use.

Crop pests and predators exhibit inconsistent responses to surrounding landscape composition.

The idea that noncrop habitat enhances pest control and represents a win-win opportunity to conserve biodiversity and bolster yields has emerged as an agroecological paradigm. However, while noncrop habitat in landscapes surrounding farms sometimes benefits pest predators, natural enemy responses remain heterogeneous across studies and effects on pests are inconclusive. The observed heterogeneity in species responses to noncrop habitat may be biological in origin or could result from variation in how habitat and biocontrol are measured. Here, we use a pest-control database encompassing 132 studies and 6,759 sites worldwide to model natural enemy and pest abundances, predation rates, and crop damage as a function of landscape composition. Our results showed that although landscape composition explained significant variation within studies, pest and enemy abundances, predation rates, crop damage, and yields each exhibited different responses across studies, sometimes increasing and sometimes decreasing in landscapes with more noncrop habitat but overall showing no consistent trend. Thus, models that used landscape-composition variables to predict pest-control dynamics demonstrated little potential to explain variation across studies, though prediction did improve when comparing studies with similar crop and landscape features. Overall, our work shows that surrounding noncrop habitat does not consistently improve pest management, meaning habitat conservation may bolster production in some systems and depress yields in others. Future efforts to develop tools that inform farmers when habitat conservation truly represents a win-win would benefit from increased understanding of how landscape effects are modulated by local farm management and the biology of pests and their enemies.

Investigating the (Mis)Match between Natural Pest Control Knowledge and the Intensity of Pesticide Use.

Transforming modern agriculture towards both higher yields and greater sustainability is critical for preserving biodiversity in an increasingly populous and variable world. However, the intensity of agricultural practices varies strongly between crop systems. Given limited research capacity, it is crucial to focus efforts to increase sustainability in the crop systems that need it most. In this study, we investigate the match (or mismatch) between the intensity of pesticide use and the availability of knowledge on the ecosystem service of natural pest control across various crop systems. Using a systematic literature search on pest control and publicly available pesticide data, we find that pest control literature is not more abundant in crops where insecticide input per hectare is highest. Instead, pest control literature is most abundant, with the highest number of studies published, in crops with comparatively low insecticide input per hectare but with high world harvested area. These results suggest that a major increase of interest in agroecological research towards crops with high insecticide input, particularly cotton and horticultural crops such as citrus and high value-added vegetables, would help meet knowledge needs for a timely ecointensification of agriculture.

Agricultural pesticide use and adverse birth outcomes in the San Joaquin Valley of California.

Virtually all agricultural communities worldwide are exposed to agricultural pesticides. Yet, the health consequences of such exposure are poorly understood, and the scientific literature remains ambiguous. Using individual birth and demographic characteristics for over 500 000 birth observations between 1997-2011 in the agriculturally dominated San Joaquin Valley, California, we statistically investigate if residential agricultural pesticide exposure during gestation, by trimester, and by toxicity influences birth weight, gestational length, or birth abnormalities. Overall, our analysis indicates that agricultural pesticide exposure increases adverse birth outcomes by 5-9%, but only among the population exposed to very high quantities of pesticides (e.g., top 5th percentile, i.e., ~4200 kg applied over gestation). Thus, policies and interventions targeting the extreme right tail of the pesticide distribution near human habitation could largely eliminate the adverse birth outcomes associated with agricultural pesticide exposure documented in this study.The health consequences of exposure to pesticides are uncertain and subject to much debate. Here, the effect of exposure during pregnancy is investigated in an agriculturally dominated residential area, showing that an increase in adverse birth outcomes is observed with very high levels of pesticide exposure.

Identifying the landscape drivers of agricultural insecticide use leveraging evidence from 100,000 fields.

Agricultural landscape intensification has enabled food production to meet growing demand. However, there are concerns that more simplified cropland with lower crop diversity, less noncrop habitat, and larger fields results in increased use of pesticides due to a lack of natural pest control and more homogeneous crop resources. Here, we use data on crop production and insecticide use from over 100,000 field-level observations from Kern County, California, encompassing the years 2005-2013 to test if crop diversity, field size, and cropland extent affect insecticide use in practice. Overall, we find that higher crop diversity does reduce insecticide use, but the relationship is strongly influenced by the differences in crop types between diverse and less diverse landscapes. Further, we find insecticide use increases with increasing field size. The effect of cropland extent is distance-dependent, with nearby cropland decreasing insecticide use, whereas cropland further away increases insecticide use. This refined spatial perspective provides unique understanding of how different components of landscape simplification influence insecticide use over space and for different crops. Our results indicate that neither the traditionally conceived "simplified" nor "complex" agricultural landscape is most beneficial to reducing insecticide inputs; reality is far more complex.

Spatiotemporal variation in the relationship between landscape simplification and insecticide use.

Agrochemicals have numerous negative impacts on human health, ecosystem services, and ecological communities. Thus, their efficient use is an economic and ecological priority. Simplified landscapes may enhance insecticide use by reducing natural enemies and increasing connectivity of crops, but empirical tests of this theory are inconclusive. We explored the relationship between landscape simplification and insecticide use using longitudinal data from USDA Census of Agriculture spanning six censuses and 25 years (1987, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, 2012) for nearly 3000 counties across the continental United States. The effect of landscape simplification was highly variable spatially and temporally. Landscape simplification was consistently correlated with increased insecticide use in some regions, but not in others. Our results indicate that the landscape-simplification-insecticide-use relationship is dynamic, and that national land use policy would benefit from actions that adequately reflect the spatial differences in the importance of landscape complexity to insecticide use.

Lyme disease risk influences human settlement in the wildland-urban interface: evidence from a longitudinal analysis of counties in the northeastern United States.

The expansion of human settlement into wildland areas, including forests in the eastern United States, has resulted in fragmented forest habitat that has been shown to drive higher entomological risk for Lyme disease. We investigated an alternative pathway between fragmentation and Lyme disease, namely whether increased risk of Lyme disease results in a reduced propensity to settle in high-risk areas at the interface of developed and undeveloped lands. We used longitudinal data analyses at the county level to determine whether Lyme disease incidence (LDI) influences the proportion of the population residing in the wildland-urban interface in 12 high LDI states in the eastern United States. We found robust evidence that a higher LDI reduces the proportion of a county's population residing in the wildland-urban interface in high-LDI states. This study provides some of the first evidence of human behavioral responses to Lyme disease risk via settlement decisions.

Agricultural landscape simplification does not consistently drive insecticide use.

The increase in agricultural production over the past 40 y has greatly altered land-use patterns, often resulting in simplified landscapes composed of large swaths of monocultures separated by small fragments of natural lands. These simplified landscapes may be more susceptible to insect pest pressure because of the loss of natural enemies and the increased size and connectivity of crop resources, and a recent analysis from a single year (2007) suggests this increased susceptibility results in increased insecticide use. I broaden the temporal analysis of this connection between landscape simplification and insecticide use by examining cross-sectional and panel data models from multiple decades (US Department of Agriculture Census of Agriculture years 2007, 2002, 1997, 1992, 1987) for seven Midwestern states composed of over 560 counties. I find that although the proportion of county in cropland--my metric for landscape simplification--was positively correlated with insecticide use in 2007, this relationship is absent or reversed in prior census years and when all years are analyzed together. This broader temporal perspective suggests that landscape simplification has inconsistent effects on insecticide use and that multiyear studies will be key to unlocking the true drivers of variation in insecticide application.

Eco-label conveys reliable information on fish stock health to seafood consumers.

Concerns over fishing impacts on marine populations and ecosystems have intensified the need to improve ocean management. One increasingly popular market-based instrument for ecological stewardship is the use of certification and eco-labeling programs to highlight sustainable fisheries with low environmental impacts. The Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) is the most prominent of these programs. Despite widespread discussions about the rigor of the MSC standards, no comprehensive analysis of the performance of MSC-certified fish stocks has yet been conducted. We compared status and abundance trends of 45 certified stocks with those of 179 uncertified stocks, finding that 74% of certified fisheries were above biomass levels that would produce maximum sustainable yield, compared with only 44% of uncertified fisheries. On average, the biomass of certified stocks increased by 46% over the past 10 years, whereas uncertified fisheries increased by just 9%. As part of the MSC process, fisheries initially go through a confidential pre-assessment process. When certified fisheries are compared with those that decline to pursue full certification after pre-assessment, certified stocks had much lower mean exploitation rates (67% of the rate producing maximum sustainable yield vs. 92% for those declining to pursue certification), allowing for more sustainable harvesting and in many cases biomass rebuilding. From a consumer's point of view this means that MSC-certified seafood is 3-5 times less likely to be subject to harmful fishing than uncertified seafood. Thus, MSC-certification accurately identifies healthy fish stocks and conveys reliable information on stock status to seafood consumers.