Hazard Ratios and Alternative Effect Measures: An Applied Illustration.

PURPOSE: Although the limitations of hazard ratios (HRs) for quantifying treatment effects in right-censored data have been widely discussed, HRs are still preferentially reported over other, more interpretable effect measures. This may stem from the fact that there are few applied examples that directly contrast the HR and its interpretation with alternative effect measures. METHODS: We analyzed data from two randomized clinical trials comparing panitumumab plus standard-of-care chemotherapy (SOCC) with SOCC alone as first- and second-line treatment for metastatic colorectal cancer. We report the effect of treatment with panitumumab on progression-free survival (PFS) using a Cox proportional hazards model to estimate the HR and the Kaplan-Meier estimator of cumulative incidence (risk). Further analyses included examining the cumulative incidence curves; kernel-smoothed, non-parametric hazards curves; fitting the Cox model with a continuous time variable; and estimating restricted mean survival as well as median survival. RESULTS: The HR was 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.71, 0.93), while the risk ratio (or relative risk [i.e., ratio of the cumulative incidence among the treated versus comparator]) was 0.99 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.02). These two measures suggest apparently different conclusions: either a treatment benefit or no effect. Through subsequent analyses, we demonstrated that, while the cumulative incidence of the outcome was similar by the end of follow-up regardless of treatment, the panitumumab treated group experienced longer PFS than those randomized to SOCC. Substantial nonproportional hazards were evident with panitumumab treatment reducing the hazard of progression/mortality during the first ~1.75 years but associated with an increased hazard of progress/mortality thereafter. DISCUSSION: This example underscores the difficulties in interpreting HRs, particularly in the setting of qualitative violations of proportional hazards, and the value of quantifying treatment effects via multiple effect measures.

Use of Sensitivity Analyses to Assess Uncontrolled Confounding from Unmeasured Variables in Observational, Active Comparator Pharmacoepidemiologic Studies: A Systematic Review.

Understanding the potential for, direction, and magnitude of uncontrolled confounding is critical for generating informative real-world evidence. Many sensitivity analyses are available to assess robustness of study results to residual confounding, but it is unclear how researchers are using these methods. We conducted a systematic review of published active comparator cohort studies of drugs or biologics to summarize use of sensitivity analyses aimed at assessing uncontrolled confounding from an unmeasured variable. We reviewed articles in five medical and seven epidemiologic journals published between January 1, 2017, and June 30, 2022. We identified 158 active comparator cohort studies, 76 from medical and 82 from epidemiologic journals. Residual, unmeasured, or uncontrolled confounding was noted as a potential concern in 93% of studies, but only 84 (53%) implemented one or more sensitivity analysis to assess uncontrolled confounding from an unmeasured variable. The most common analyses were E-values among medical journal articles (21%) and restriction on measured variables among epidemiologic journal articles (22%). Researchers must rigorously consider the role of residual confounding in their analyses and the best sensitivity analyses for assessing this potential bias.

Cardiovascular Outcomes of α-Blockers vs 5-α Reductase Inhibitors for Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia.

Importance: The most prescribed class of medications for benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) is α-blockers (ABs). However, the cardiovascular safety profile of these medications among patients with BPH is not well understood. Objective: To compare the safety of ABs vs 5-α reductase inhibitors (5-ARIs) for risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: This active comparator, new-user cohort study was conducted using insurance claims data from a 20% random sample of Medicare beneficiaries from 2007 to 2019 to evaluate the 1-year risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes. Males aged 66 to 90 years were indexed into the cohort at new use of an AB or 5-ARI. Twelve months of continuous enrollment and at least 1 diagnosis code for BPH within 12 months prior to initiation were required. Data were analyzed from January 2007 through December 2019. Exposures: Exposure was defined by a qualifying prescription fill for an AB or 5-ARI after at least 12 months without a prescription for these drug classes. Main Outcomes and Measures: Follow-up began at a qualified refill for the study drug. Primary study outcomes were hospitalization for heart failure (HF), composite major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; hospitalization for stroke, myocardial infarction, or death), composite MACE or hospitalization for HF, and death. Inverse probability of treatment and censoring-weighted 1-year risks, risk ratios (RRs), and risk differences (RDs) were estimated for each outcome. Results: Among 189 868 older adult males, there were 163 829 patients initiating ABs (mean [SD] age, 74.6 [6.2] years; 579 American Indian or Alaska Native [0.4%], 5890 Asian or Pacific Islander [3.6%], 9179 Black [5.6%], 10 610 Hispanic [6.5%], and 133 510 non-Hispanic White [81.5%]) and 26 039 patients initiating 5-ARIs (mean [SD] age, 75.3 [6.4] years; 76 American Indian or Alaska Native [0.3%], 827 Asian or Pacific Islander [3.2%], 1339 Black [5.1%], 1656 Hispanic [6.4%], and 21 605 non-Hispanic White [83.0%]). ABs compared with 5-ARIs were associated with an increased 1-year risk of MACE (8.95% [95% CI, 8.81%-9.09%] vs 8.32% [95% CI, 7.92%-8.72%]; RR = 1.08 [95% CI, 1.02-1.13]; RD per 1000 individuals = 6.26 [95% CI, 2.15-10.37]), composite MACE and HF (RR = 1.07; [95% CI, 1.03-1.12]; RD per 1000 individuals = 7.40 [95% CI, 2.88-11.93 ]), and death (RR = 1.07; [95% CI, 1.01-1.14]; RD per 1000 individuals = 3.85 [95% CI, 0.40-7.29]). There was no difference in risk for HF hospitalization alone. Conclusions and Relevance: These results suggest that ABs may be associated with an increased risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes compared with 5-ARIs. If replicated with more detailed confounder data, these results may have important public health implications given these medications' widespread use.

Incidence of new outpatient long-acting reversible contraceptive insertions among a commercially insured, US population from 2010 to 2020.

Objectives: Characterize new use of long-acting reversible contraceptives (LARCs), highly effective contraceptive methods, in a broad population over time. Study Design: We constructed a retrospective cohort of commercially insured individuals aged 15 to 54 years from 2010 to 2020 and estimated monthly incidence of new LARC insertions. Results: The monthly standardized incidence increased from 6.0 insertions per 10,000 individuals in January 2010 to 14.1 in December 2020, with a dip in insertions after March 2020. Hormonal intrauterine devices were consistently the most inserted LARC; implants were increasingly favored over time. Conclusions: LARCs are increasingly popular forms of contraception among commercially insured individuals. Implications: Given the increasing popularity, ensuring access to LARCs is critical.

Controlling for Differential Regression-To-The-Mean via Propensity Scores: A Simulation Study.

Purpose: Regression-to-the-mean (RTM) is a statistical phenomenon that may occur in epidemiologic studies where inclusion in the study cohort is contingent upon experiencing a laboratory/clinical measurement beyond a defined threshold. When differential across treatment groups, RTM could bias the final study estimate. This poses substantial challenges in observational studies that index patients upon experiencing extreme laboratory or clinical values. Our objective was to investigate propensity score-based methods as a tool for mitigating this source of bias via simulation. Methods: We simulated a noninterventional comparative effectiveness study, comparing treatment with romiplostim to standard-of-care therapies for immune thrombocytopenia (ITP), a disease characterized by low platelet counts. Platelet counts were generated from normal distributions according to the underlying ITP severity, a strong confounder of treatment and outcome. Patients were assigned treatment probabilities based upon ITP severity, which created varied levels of differential and non-differential RTM. Treatments were compared via the difference in median platelet counts during 23 weeks of follow-up. We calculated four summary metrics of the platelet counts measured prior to cohort entry and built six propensity score models to adjust for those variables. We adjusted for these summary metrics using inverse probability of treatment weights. Results: Across all simulated scenarios, propensity score adjustment reduced bias and increased precision of the treatment effect estimator. Adjusting for combinations of the summary metrics was most effective at reducing bias. Adjusting for the mean of prior platelet counts or the difference between the cohort-qualifying platelet count and the largest prior count eliminated the most bias when assessed individually. Conclusion: These results suggest that differential RTM could be reasonably addressed by propensity score models with summaries of historical laboratory values. This approach can be easily applied to any comparative effectiveness or safety study, though investigators should carefully consider the best summary metric for their data.

The ERG1A K+ Channel Is More Abundant in Rectus abdominis Muscle from Cancer Patients Than that from Healthy Humans.

BACKGROUND: The potassium channel encoded by the ether-a-gogo-related gene 1A (erg1a) has been detected in the atrophying skeletal muscle of mice experiencing either muscle disuse or cancer cachexia and further evidenced to contribute to muscle deterioration by enhancing ubiquitin proteolysis; however, to our knowledge, ERG1A has not been reported in human skeletal muscle. METHODS AND RESULTS: Here, using immunohistochemistry, we detect ERG1A immunofluorescence in human Rectus abdominis skeletal muscle sarcolemma. Further, using single point brightness data, we report the detection of ERG1A immunofluorescence at low levels in the Rectus abdominis muscle sarcolemma of young adult humans and show that it trends toward greater levels (10.6%) in healthy aged adults. Interestingly, we detect ERG1A immunofluorescence at a statistically greater level (53.6%; p < 0.05) in the skeletal muscle of older cancer patients than in age-matched healthy adults. Importantly, using immunoblot, we reveal that lower mass ERG1A protein is 61.5% (p < 0.05) more abundant in the skeletal muscle of cachectic older adults than in healthy age-matched controls. Additionally, we report that the ERG1A protein is detected in a cultured human rhabdomyosarcoma line that may be a good in vitro model for the study of ERG1A in muscle. CONCLUSIONS: The data demonstrate that ERG1A is detected more abundantly in the atrophied skeletal muscle of cancer patients, suggesting it may be related to muscle loss in humans as it has been shown to be in mice experiencing muscle atrophy as a result of malignant tumors.

MERG1A Protein Abundance Increases in the Atrophied Skeletal Muscle of Denervated Mice, But Does Not Affect NFκB Activity.

Skeletal muscle atrophy may occur with disease, injury, decreased muscle use, starvation, and normal aging. No reliably effective treatments for atrophy are available, thus research into the mechanisms contributing to muscle loss is essential. The ERG1A K+ channel contributes to muscle loss by increasing ubiquitin proteasome proteolysis (UPP) in the skeletal muscle of both unweighted and cachectic mice. Because the mechanisms which produce atrophy vary based upon the initiating factor, here we investigate atrophy produced by denervation. Using immunohistochemistry and immunoblots, we demonstrate that ERG1A protein abundance increases significantly in the Gastrocnemius muscle of rodents 7 days after both sciatic nerve transection and hind limb unweighting. Further, we reveal that ectopic expression of a Merg1a encoded plasmid in normal mouse Gastrocnemius muscle has no effect on activity of the NFκB transcription factor family, a group of proteins which contribute to muscle atrophy by modulation of the UPP. Further, although NFκB activity increases significantly after denervation, we show that expression of a plasmid encoding a dominant negative Merg1a mutant in Gastrocnemius muscle prior to denervation, has no effect on NFκB activity. Thus, although the ERG1A K+ channel increases UPP, it does not do so through modulation of NFκB transcription factors.

Maternal age at last birth and leukocyte telomere length in a nationally representative population of perimenopausal and postmenopausal women.

OBJECTIVE: The primary aim of this study was to evaluate if maternal age at birth of last child is associated with leukocyte telomere length in a nationally representative population of perimenopausal and postmenopausal women. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 1,232 women from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to examine maternal age at last birth and telomere length, surveyed between 1999 and 2002. We included perimenopausal and postmenopausal women age 40 years and older. Maternal age at last live birth was self-reported, and leukocyte telomere length was measured using quantitative polymerase chain reaction. We calculated least-squares geometric mean telomere length across categories of maternal age adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, number of live births, survey cycle, and history of hysterectomy or oophorectomy. P trend < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. For hypothesis-generation, we explored modification by reproductive and sociodemographic factors. RESULTS: Maternal age at last birth was positively associated with telomere length: the multivariable-adjusted least-squares geometric mean leukocyte telomere length across categories of age at last birth (<25, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, ≥40 y) was 0.90, 0.93, 0.93, 0.95, and 0.96, respectively (P trend = 0.04). There was suggestive evidence this association may be restricted to those women with one or two live births or women who reported ever using oral contraceptives (P interaction <0.10 for both). CONCLUSIONS: Later maternal age was associated with longer telomere length in a nationally representative population of women. These data provide new insight into the biological relationship between reproductive history and long-term health. : Video Summary:http://links.lww.com/MENO/A662.

Video Summary:http://links.lww.com/MENO/A662.

Ether-a-go-go related gene-1a potassium channel abundance varies within specific skeletal muscle fiber type.

The ERG1A K+ channel, which is partially responsible for repolarization of the cardiac action potential, has also been reported in skeletal muscle where it modulates ubiquitin proteolysis. Because ERG1A protein appears variably expressed in muscles composed of mixed fiber types, we hypothesized that its abundance in skeletal muscle might differ with fiber type. Indeed, skeletal muscle fibers vary in speed of contraction (fast or slow), which is mainly determined by myosin heavy chain (MyHC) isoform content, but a sarcolemmal K+ channel might also modulate contraction speed. To test our hypothesis, we cryo-sectioned Soleus (SOL), Extensor Digitorum Longus (EDL), and Gastrocnemius muscles from five rats. These muscles were chosen because the SOL and EDL contain an abundance of slow- and fast-twitch fibers, respectively, while the Gastrocnemius has a more heterogeneous composition. The muscle sections were co-immunostained for the ERG1A protein and either the fast- or slow-twitch MyHC to identify fiber type. ERG1A fluorescence was then measured in the sarcolemma of each fiber type and compared. The data reveal that the ERG1A protein is more abundant in the fibers of the SOL than in the EDL muscles, suggesting ERG1A may be more abundant in the slow than the fast fibers, and this was confirmed with immunoblot. However, because of the homogeneity of fiber type within these muscles, it was not possible to get enough data from both fiber types within a single muscle to compare ERG1A composition within fiber type. However, immunohistochemistry of sections from the fiber type heterogeneous Gastrocnemius muscle reveals that slow fibers had, on average, a 17.2% greater ERG1A fluorescence intensity than fast fibers (p<0.03). Further, immunoblot reveals that ERG1A protein is 41.6% more abundant (p=0.051) in old than in young rat Gastrocnemius muscle. We postulate that this membrane bound voltage-gated channel may affect membrane characteristics, the duration of the action potential generated, and/or the speed of contraction. Indeed, ERG1A protein is more abundant in aged and atrophic skeletal muscle, both of which exhibit slower rates of contraction.